Showing posts with label exacta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label exacta. Show all posts

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Mar 23, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    The past week was stellar for winners and exactas, not just in raw number but in the prices. Plus, we were one short of nailing the Wednesday, March 19 TwinSpires bonus Pick 4 at Buffalo Raceway. That is where we will begin the parade of profits.

    The 50-cent bonus Pick 4, a weekly play offerint a 10-percent-bonus on winning the exotic, resulted in three of the four winners on March 19. In the first leg we singled Kisses N Kicks ($29.80, $18.80, $5.10); in the second we singled Stonetag ($10.60, $6, $3.30); in the fourth we had two contenders finishing fourth and eighth, respectively; and in the final leg we had two, winning with Good Luck Penny ($12.20, $4.90, $2.70).

    The Pick-4 is offered from the fifth to the eighth races every Wednesday evening. We assist with suggestions for your ticket via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway and implore you not to pass the less-than-obvious contenders in your ticket and as win, place and show possibilities.

    Our contenders in the feature races this week (not our features, track events) included the first round of “Levy” and Matchmaker series at Yonkers and the Clyde Hirt and Horse & Groom legs at the Meadowlands.

    In the Horse & Groom we gave you Banker Volo ($4.80, $2.60, $2.20) in the second leg after finishing third with Crosbys Clam Bake ($2.20) at 5-1 in the first division, won by the public choice. In the Clyde Hirt we were third with Burkentine Hanover ($3.40) at 12-1 in division one. In the second division, Nathaniel B scratched.

    In the quartet of Matchmaker divisions on Friday at Yonkers we only had one third, Economy Terror ($2.60), finishing fourth, sixth and seventh with mares going off at 38-1, 12-1 and 94-1, respectively.

    Saturday’s Levy divisions were meant to aim at reasonable upsets, considering the five miles were strewn with stars. We came close with one, Malak Uswaad ($6.10, $9.30 ok), second to the public choice at 14-1 (Exacta $18). We picked up a meager win when Sweet Lou finished second ($2.60, $2.10—no show betting) with his entry mate, launching an exacta ($5.50) with our second choice, Pan From Nantucket ($2.10). Dancin Yankee, a second choice in another leg, finished third ($2.40). Our other choices, Word Power (5-1) finished fourth and Bet On The Law (26-1) finished sixth.

    The Levy story of the first round was the return of Foiled Again, who won the fifth division, his debut race of 2014. We will be covering the next five rounds and the finals of both series as spring settles in to a warmer state.

    The horses-to-watch (H2W) list results are below, once again featuring the win, place and show and exacta successes. There were five exactas scored, with one cold and the others combined with race favorites.

    We endorse across-the-board and the exotic plays you can find through the H2W, which is exclusively for your TwinSpires harness bankroll. Use your own judgment and handicapping but of course, consider the H2W horses, as they prove to be in league with good paying exotics and deliver healthy place and show cash when they don’t pick up the top spot.

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Mystically Mine, $45.40, $34.40, $13.60, Cal Expo
    Doomsday Hanover, $17, $4.60, $3.20, (Exacta $26.60) Rosecroft
    Skad’s Winner, $14.40, $6.20, $4.20, Pompano
    Missys Diamond, $11, $4, $3.60, (*Exacta $23.40) Cal Expo
    Camilla The Terror, $10.40, $4.40, $4.40 ok, Miami Valley
    RA Shakenbake, $9.50, $3.60, $2.80, (Exacta $22,40) Buffalo
    Coraggioso, $2.90, $2.40, $2.50 ok, Yonkers

    Seconds

    Love Raider, $5.20, $4.20, Rosecroft
    Waldy Jimmy, $5.20, $3.40, Pompano
    Cordealia, $4.20, $3.60, (*Exacta $23.40) Cal Expo
    Wild About Eagle, $3.40, $3.20, (Exacta $5.50) Cal Expo
    Love Live Laugh, $3.20, $2.20, (Exacta $7.40) Cal Expo

     Thirds

    Gambler’s Vacation, $4.20, Rosecroft
    Lust, $4, Cal Expo
    Handsoffmycupcake, $2.80, Meadowlands


    News And Notes

    Despite our contacts in Hollywood, we have not been able to discover specific news about the harness racing movie, “Johnny Longshot.” The Emilio Estevez project began principal shooting in 2013 and even developed a trailer while filming in Ohio. However, its category in the trades was changed to “in development” and promotional activity ceased. Estevez is the director, writer and star, with co-producer credits going to Gil Netter (“Life of Pi”) and Lisa Niendenthal (“Mona Lisa Smile”). There are reports of a script re-write holding up production. Allegedly the story, where Estevez plays harness horseman John West, was being “updated” in October of last year.

    Miami Valley Raceway will race on Monday, April 7, to make up for a weather-related cancellation on Sunday, March 2. With the addition of the make-up program, Miami Valley will be racing six nights a week during the final four weeks of its inaugural season. Tuesday nights will be added beginning April 15. Miami Valley offers three consecutive nights next week (Thursday, Friday and Saturday March 27-29).

    A meeting is slated for March 25 to determine the 2014 race dates for Hiawatha Horse Park, Dresden and Leamington raceways. The three tracks are outside the eight-track standardbred alliance group which are already assured funding for the next five years, and are along with Ottawa and Fort Erie vying for the remaining $8 million from the province to conduct racing (that includes expenses as well as purses). The group is comprised of the two WEG tracks, Mohawk and Woodbine, the two Great Canadian Gaming tracks, Flamboro and Georgian Downs, Hanover, Clinton, Grand River Raceways and Western Fair, so a lot is at stake in the Ontario skirmish for racing dates.

    As spring allows Minnesota to thaw from a frigid winter, the opening of Running Aces nears. Running Aces will conduct a 54-night meet in 2014 with racing beginning Wednesday, May 28 and ending Saturday, Aug. 30. Racing will be conducted every Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday throughout the summer with a 7 p.m. (CST) post time, except for Sundays when the action will begin an hour earlier.

    The 21st season of harness racing at Hoosier Park is set to begin Friday, March 28, with a new post time of 5:15 p.m. (EDT). Racing follows a Friday/Saturday schedule the opening week, a Thursday, Friday, Saturday schedule the second week and then resumes a Tuesday-through-Saturday schedule for the remainder of the meet. With an extended stakes schedule offered for the first time, the racing season goes through Nov. 15.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • The Pros & Cons of Exacta Wagering

    POSTED Dec 20, 2013 By Derek Simon
    As most of my podcast listeners and Facebook followers know, I’m not overly enamored with the tendency of today’s horse players to focus solely on exotic wagers — exactas, trifectas, pick-3’s, etc. I’ve argued that, while these types of wagers certainly provide players a better chance at a “big score,” they don’t always offer the value that most bettors think they do.

    Among the stranger reasons for playing exotics that I ever heard, though, came in an e-mail I received several years ago. Here’s what the e-mailer wrote in regard to win betting:

    “It doesn't work — period,” he noted. “I tried every way, every method. Betting to win will not work … a losing streak will wipe anyone out … the returns are not high enough.

    “Exotics [are] the only way to profit,” he went on, pointing out that his “new goal” was to minimize his bets and maximize his profits.

    Sure, buy low, sell high. No problem.

    Still, does it really make sense to eschew betting on one horse or one race to bet on multiple horses and/or multiple races, especially when one is concerned about losing streaks? 

    Obviously, the short answer is no, although, like most “truths” in the Sport of Kings, there are exceptions. To illustrate both the pros and cons of one particular type of exotic wagering — the exacta (or “exactor” for my Canadian friends) — I looked at an average race at an average American racetrack — the nightcap at Hawthorne on Friday, Dec. 20.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Let’s start with the basics — the takeout rates, which dictate the amounts subtracted from the various pools to fund purses, pay Uncle Sam and otherwise keep the track in business:

    HAWTHORNE
    Win, place, and show: 17%
    Exacta and Daily Double: 20.5%
    Trifecta, Pick-3, Pick-4, and Superfecta wagering: 25%

    As even the studio audience of the “Jerry Springer Show” can see — after much arguing and swearing, of course — the numbers don’t look great for those betting exactas and daily doubles, and they look even worse for those wagering on tri’s, super’s, pick-3’s and pick-4’s.

    Nonetheless, successful speculation is all about finding value. In horseracing, this means insisting on odds greater than one’s actual chance of winning. Luckily, given that horses generally win in accordance with their final odds, we can use the win pool totals to approximate fair exacta payoffs with a reasonable degree of accuracy:

    (W)IN HORSE
    WIN POOL $ ÷ TOTAL WIN POOL $

    (P)LACE HORSE
    WIN POOL $ ÷ (TOTAL WIN POOL $ – WINNER’S WIN POOL $)

    $1 EXACTA PAYOFF
    1 ÷ (W × P ÷ 0.83) – 1

    With this in mind, let’s take a gander at Friday’s ninth race from Hawthorne (HAW). Listed below are the win pool totals:


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Now, let’s assume that we caught a tiger by the toe and came up with 12-Miles and Miles as the most likely winner and 10-Ideal Alluvial as the probable second-place finisher. What is the fair exacta payoff for that combination, based on the final odds?

    Fair Exacta Payoff: 1 ÷ [4,265 ÷ 61,443 × 21,436 ÷ (61,443 – 4,265) ÷ 0.83] – 1 = $31

    It’s approximately $31 (see above), which means that the actual $39.90 return was a true overlay, even with the higher exacta pool takeout.

    Well, hooray, we’ve just proven that exacta bets can offer (significantly) better value than straight win bets!  

    Hold on Sloopy, not so fast. Remember that in this particular scenario we assumed a single bet on a single combination. The minute one starts “spreading,” i.e. wagering on more than one combination, the return on investment (ROI) plummets. For example, let’s say that instead of betting a $1 exacta on the 12-10 combo, we had spread our wagers a bit and plunked down a sawbuck on each combination offering a better-than-fair price.

    Below are the fair $1 exacta payoffs (based on the final win odds), with the actual will-pays listed in parenthesis. I’ve highlighted the overlays in green and the underlays in red:

    12 with…

    1 – Scr.
    2 – $881 ($461)
    3 – $135 ($113)
    4 – $159 ($109)
    5 – Scr.
    6 – Scr.
    7 – $621 ($282)
    8 – $62 ($69)
    9 – Scr.
    10 – $31 ($39)
    11 – $104 ($70)
    13 – $93 ($68)

    What leaps off the page — at least to me — is all the red ink. Six of the eight possible exacta combinations are underlays, which casts doubt on the notion that the exacta is a haven for value. What’s more, if we play the two overlays — 12-8 and 12-10 — the expected payoff is effectively cut in half. And, no, this does not change if the dollar amounts are raised (provided the distribution of money bet remains unchanged).

    As you might imagine, spreading is even more pronounced in multi-race sequences. According to an old Facebook poll I conducted, horseplayers (at least the ones that took part in my survey) generally use about 12 unique contenders in a typical Pick-3 bet.

    Ironically, the one thing that exotic betting has going for it is a lower hit rate. Let me explain: Although most gamblers don’t think about it, sports betting in almost all its forms is the ultimate exercise in socialism, whereby the haves pay for the have-nots. This is because the “tax,” i.e. the takeout (or vigorish), is paid solely by the winners.

    A horseplayer that loses a $10 bet does not fork out an additional 15-20 percent to cover the takeout; instead, the designated percentage, including breakage (in horseracing), is deducted from the winning payouts. Hence, less winning equals less takeout paid. I realize this is a pyrrhic victory if there ever was one, but it does illustrate why grinding it out can be so difficult for the average player to do.

    So what does all this prove? Only that it pays — quite literally — to treat every wager with care. Understand that higher returns don’t necessarily imply greater value and that the more money you churn, the more it costs you in the form of takeout and breakage.

    If you want to become a better bettor, keep records, assess your strengths and weaknesses and, for heaven’s sake, make the necessary changes. If you can’t cash an exacta to save your life, quit trying — at least with real money — until your skills improve. If every time you play the Pick-3, two of your top choices win and you collect zip, stop playing the Pick-3! Try betting your primary contenders to win or to place; do something, anything, other than what you’ve already proven doesn’t work for you.

    Above all, pay heed to the words of Thomas Tusser, who said: “A fool and his money are soon parted.” Try to remember that the next time you’re at the racetrack… or when buying a Rolex from a guy in a trench coat. Life is short. According to my new watch, there are 10 hours in every day — spend them wisely.

  • The case for Orb to win the Travers Stakes

    POSTED Aug 23, 2013 By Unknown
    The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK.

     When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed.

     So here it is. My pick to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes--a race for three-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles on dirt on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course is...

    There are plenty of reasons not to like Orb: The Preakness was dreadful, and he flattened in the Belmont before an 11-week break into this. That'd be enough to pass at even money, but I'm hoping for 4-to-1 against a competitive group. His Kentucky Derby remains among the fastest race of the year, and while it'd be easy to assess that to track condition and pace (both factors, yes), neither of those things were in play when he romped in the Florida Derby over eventual Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday.

    The other thing I like about Orb is his running style. He has the reputation as being a closer, but he's capable of making a strong move earlier in the race as needed--like in the Derby when he moved from 17th to 5th on the far turn.

     Given Moreno's suicide mission to try to win the Travers gate to wire (granted, the only way he can win), Verrazano and Palace Malice will be breathing down his back. It'll be interesting to see which stablemate moves first, but I can't imagine Joel Rosario will want either to be far away when they all turn for home. Those who think Orb is a deep closer do so at the risk of not realizing he might be in front by the eighth pole.
    Orb's Class Ratings, pace figures, & Speed Ratings
    Orb is one of four horses in the Travers who have run a 120+ E2 pace rating. This rating measures a horse's pace from the start of a race to the second call. Orb earned his 122 in the Kentucky Derby, which as a route means that figure represents his speed for the first six furlongs. Following that 122 Orb earned a late pace rating of 91, which is easily the highest LP figure of any of the 120+ horses. Verrazano posted a 126 in the Derby and came home with a 55. Will Take Charge did a 121-67 in the Derby, and Palace Malice went 129-57.

     Yes, a slower pace is expected here, which we certainly have seen can benefit Palace Malice at longer distances (he won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont with a 109-104-88 versus 127-129-57 for the Derby) and Verrazano at shorter distances (he's the only horse in the race to be above par at every point in call in a singular race, which he did in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell when earning pace ratings of 102-115-101), but the aforementioned presence of Moreno sets it up for the pop we saw from Orb in the Derby.

     So that's my case for Orb on top, but I think the best wagering opportunity is in betting against a 2-3-8 exacta box. That is, playing against two of Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice, respectively, to finish out of the top two. So for me, if Verrazano or Palace Malice wins that's OK as long as either of the Godolphin pair (#1 Romansh or #9 Transparent) sneaks in underneath, and I'll also put my thing down, flip it, and reverse it Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott style.

     So 2, 3, 8 with 1, 9 and 1, 9 with 2, 3, 8 for $12 plus a $1 exacta box 1-9 for a little insanity insurance (plus my birthday is 1-9).

     I'll pay attention to the odds board, though. Orb is a play for me at 4-to-1. Given the big day and casual crowd, I think there's a better chance I get the right price on one of the big three than the others, and I think Orb is the most likely to offer that fair price.

  • Enter the Preakness exacta matrix

    POSTED May 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Anyone can make a morning line for projected win odds, but making one for exacta will pays takes a little more finesse, though I did take some liberties to make it easier while still providing guidance as to where the money will go in the exacta pool:

     1. Orb is the overwhelming choice to win at 4-to-5 in the top spot (odds account for 21% takeout in the exact pool). He's also the most likely second-place finisher with 24.76% of that pool. It's an interesting take because the Derby winner has 72% of the money in the exacta pool but probably won't even have half the place pool. Thus, betting Orb to place is a much better bet than wheeling him up and down in the exacta.

     2. No surprise that all other horses besides Orb are more likely to finish second than first. Departing is the second choice to win with his price based on exacta will pays at $11.60.

    3. I lumped Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute,  Oxbow, and Will Take Charge together as co-third choices ($16.40) then made Govenor Charlie the eighth choice ($26.40) and Titletown Five the longest shot ($34.80).

    4. The big opinion here is that Departing will be closer in price to the third tier of Derby also rans than to the Derby winner. A chalk-chalk exacta comes back 9-to-1, but Departing on top is a much more robust 21-to-1.

    5. Because the biggest jump is from Orb to Departing and not Departing to the next tier, things really blow up if you get Orb out of the exacta. Regardless of your wagering style, it's an interesting phenomena to note because the multis are probably going to be the same way. Whereas at first it appeared that beating Departing might provide some value if you liked Orb, this shows that if you're willing to bet against Orb, don't let Departing beat you.

    Enjoy!

     

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Feb 10, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    I don’t recall when the powers-that-be in meteorology began naming winter storms (I thought names were only for hurricanes) but a fierce blizzard given the name Nemo knocked out power on and off racetracks in the northeast this past weekend.

    Yonkers, the New Meadowlands, Freehold, Woodbine, Western Fair, Flamboro and Charlottetown Driving Park are tracks that cancelled programs due to being in the path of Nemo. Thus, many of our horses to watch on our exclusive list (H2W) never had a chance to participate. All of those horses will appear again in next week’s blog’s H2W listings. But we still held up well sans the canceled groups, including two huge exotics at Cal Expo (see below).

    Feature-wise we were left with only the Exit 16W splits at the New Meadowlands on Saturday, when Nemo was no longer a threat to northern New Jersey. We couldn’t beat the big choice Holdingallthecards in split two but we picked up the first-division winner with Yo Cheyenne Rocky, which paid $11.20.

    As for the Woodbine Pick 4, we suggested two horses for each leg of the TwinSpires special that offers a 10-percent bonus to winners. Two of those horses finished third and one was victorious, leg 4’s Anderlecht, that paid $8.40.

    H2W


    Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying winners from the H2W on our blog last Thursday:

    $27.60, Dukeofhazards, Cal Expo
    $16.80, Competition Cam, Pompano
    $15.00, Thieving Magpie, Fraser
    $9.60, Artistic Topaz, Pompano
    $9.00, Pembroke Snapshot, Meadows
    $4.00, Skyway Major, Cal Expo
    $3.20, Jessies Band, Northfield
     
     
    The following are the horses that finished second or third from Thursday’s list along with their post-time odds. Special notes on their affects in those positions follow. Be aware that some of them were second-timers on the list and will not return next week (you may continue following them on your own, using them as you see fit). Special notes on performances appear after these lists.

    Seconds:
    Hidden Dragon (7-1), Buffalo; Quiet Judy (7-1), Buffalo; Hagitha (8-1), Northfield; Bloomington (9-2), Meadows ; Peaceful Prince (9-1), Pompano; Fiveknuckleshuffle (5-2), Meadowlands; Odin Blue Chip (9-5), Meadowlands; Viking Mia (4-1), Cal Expo; Heartland Express (36-1), Cal Expo

    Thirds
    Red Star Bogart (5-1), Fraser; Red Star Vickers (21-1), Fraser; Smiling Major (10-1), Cal Expo; Forever My Love (5-2), Cal Expo; Thisoneandonemore (5-1), Meadows; Polo Johnny (3-1), Meadows; Gliding Boheme (5-2), Cal Expo; Hillcrest Romeo (6-1), Cal Expo

    Viking Mia’s second place was to winner Dukeofhazards at Cal Expo, resulting in a $160.50 exacta. In that same race we listed the show horse, Hillcrest Romeo, giving the trio needed for the $1,042.10 trifeca.

    Peaceful Prince was second to the Pompano winner Competition Cam and that exacta came back a healthy $42.40. Hagitha was the other half of an exacta (with the favorite winning) that paid $21.40. Quiet Judy was the other half of an exacta (with the favorite winning) that paid $16.80.

    Ak’s Living Large, a horse that left the list this week after winning last week, won a second-straight at the Meadows, this time paying $12.20. Be aware that many winners from the H2W can and do return to score again the following week, though they never appear on the list immediately after winning.

    All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    News And Notes

    The longest horse win streak of the Dover Downs meet, 10 in-a-row and nine straight, came to an end Feb. 7 in a $25,000 Claiming pace when To Much Fun defeated Come Together. Come Together began his long win streak at Pocono Downs in 2012, where he was claimed for $10,000. He came to Dover and won for $12,500, $15,000 and was claimed again for $20,000. He then won twice for $20,000 and his previous two races for $25,000. You may recall we suggested that you find a horse to bet against Come Together for a price, since a well-paying horse would ultimately break the streak. To Much Fun paid $14.60. It would have been even higher but we like to assume our readers were involved in that win pool.

    Speaking of Dover, driver Corey Callahan is on fire at the Delaware oval and leads all North American drivers in wins and earnings. Callahan has 72 wins through January. Callahan also has driven winners of nearly $600,000, to lead all in 2013. Since opening day, Nov. 1, 2012, Callahan’s quest of a fourth-consecutive driver title was fully charged. Through the meet’s first 57 days, Callahan recorded 156 wins.

    Speaking of drivers, Brian Sears is saying he is very much at home being a Yonkers regular. Sears abandoned the New Meadowlands for more lucrative purses on the four-turn mile in New York. So far this year, Sears is winning at a 27.3-percent clip and sits atop the driver standing, according to USTA reporter Ken Weingartner.

    “Things are going well,” Sears said. “You have to get the opportunities and sometimes you get on a little roll but I’m not going to keep up that pace.”

    At the Meadowlands Sears was the leading driver six times. He decided to drive more regularly at Yonkers this year because as well as higher purses, Yonkers presents programs five days a week compared to the Meadowlands’ three.

    Sears, who has won 8,137 races lifetime, ranks sixth in earned purses in harness history with $136 million. He has won 23 Breeders Crown events, good for fourth place all time.

     

     

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Every weekend as part of that blog we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.   

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

     

    Cartoons by Thom Pye