Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts

  • It's OK to be wrong as long as you get paid when you're right

    POSTED Jul 30, 2013 By Unknown
    What do Rich Perloff and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool have in common? Neither hit the Pick 6 on Monday at Saratoga.

     The difference, though, is that Perloff could have while TwinSpires.com should have. The former because Perloff gave out an $80 play that would have hit for ~$50k (if he had been in the pool). The latter because the players pool had roughly the same opinions in the last three races that would have allowed Perloff to connect. The biggest difference being that even with $50,000 compared to Perloff's $80, the TwinSpires.com Players Pool couldn't find race 7 (leg 3) winner Jade Run despite going four deep in a race Perloff only needed two bullets.

     Perloff got some razzing for not playing his ticket, but most people were impressed not only with his handicapping (he essentially hit a 275-to-1 Pick 4 using only two combos) but also his bet structure; count me among the latter group.

     Perloff works for a company with similar goals as my employer: Educate horseplayers and make horse racing fun. His Pick 6 strategy certainly educated me. I wrote that missing the leg 3 winner was our critical error. While that's true from a which-race-did-you-miss standpoint (we had 14 consolation payouts, but the consolation rarely is one) the critical error was not leaning harder on our strongest opinions.

     The size of the Players Pool doesn't mean we have more things to be right about, it means we can afford to be wrong sometimes if we're "really right" about some other thoughts. There's no reason liking the winners of races 8, 9, & 10 as much as we did that we shouldn't have spread a little bit earlier. We don't mind being wrong about a race, but it stings to be right and still not get paid. Perloff did his job in that regard. It was clear what needed to go right for his ticket to cash.

     I don't consider myself a tout or public handicapper. I love the game and share opinions on social media just as brazenly as I do at the Paddock Bar at Keeneland. The Players Pool is a shared experience too. We pool our money and try to have some fun. Yes, winning is more fun than losing, but handicapping is fun, too, as is leaning from our experiences.

  • Show me the carryovers!

    POSTED Jul 18, 2013 By Unknown
    The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

     If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

     The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

     However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

     Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

     Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

     My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

     Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • TwinSpires player turns $20 to show on Orb into $6,705.67 pay day

    POSTED Jun 19, 2013 By Unknown
    For those who thought (as I did) that Orb was the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes, nearly even money (19-to-20, paying $3.90) to show on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner in the third jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown must have seemed like great value.

     Indeed, ChungMing Hui of New York thought Orb gave him the best chance not only to cash a show bet but also win his share of the $10,000 TwinSpires.com put up as part of its Triple Crown SHOWdown competition. Each correct $20 show bet on 17 prep races plus each classic was worth 1 share. Those who swept the Triple Crown split the $10,000 based on the number of shares they had.

     Hui went into the Belmont as one of 14 people still eligible for a share of the $10,000. Those 14 players had 70 shares between them, with five shares already to Hui's credit, meaning a sixth share in the Belmont would have been worth a minimum of $714.28 to him even if the other 13 players were all right as well.

     But a funny thing happened considering the Derby and Preakness winners both hit the tri: Only two of the 14 people hit the Belmont. Most picked Revolutionary, two picked Orb, and nobody picked either winner Palace Malice or runner-up Oxbow.

     The top three finishers in the Belmont Stakes had more than 50% of the show pool among them, but only 14.3% of TwinSpires.com SHOWdown players survived. It lifted Hui's payout from a minimum $753.28 (including the $39 for his show bet) to $6,705.67.

    I talked in this blog about the strategy going into the last race: better to go for the surer thing and cash for less or go for the home run. As it turned out, betting the favorite was a bonanza, but it's not as if most people were going for gusto on horses like Frac Daddy. Indeed, the most popular pick to show was second choice Revolutionary. It makes sense given the running style that even if you thought he wouldn't win, he'd be closing. He never fired, though, and the TwinSpires.com SHOWdown dreams of many players went up in smoke.

     So there was no $1-million winner again this year, but that two players won thousands of dollars on a 3-race show parlay is still pretty cool.

  • Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game strategy

    POSTED Mar 27, 2013 By Unknown
    A streamlined version of the popular Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game begins this weekend, and with the most points available for winning the Kentucky Derby itself, the simplest strategy would be to select the six horses you feel have the best chance of winning the race.

    Unfortunately for me (and I'm guessing others) this isn't even close to optimum strategy for winning the game because multiple horses in my "top six" figure to be in the same race leading up to the Derby.

    There are 1,598 points available in this contest--170 in each of the seven Derby Championship Series races, 34 in each of the two wildcard races, and 340 in the Derby itself. I view a perfect score as 940 points: six 100-point scores in the DCS leg 2 races plus all 340 points in the Derby.

    Barring chaos, having multiple winners of DCS leg 2 races AND the Derby winner is far more important than only having the Derby winner, so even though I have Itsmyluckyday, Orb, and Shanghai Bobby all in my top five most likely winners of the Derby, I'll only use Itsmyluckyday for this contest because my best score with him and two other prep hopefuls is 620 whereas my best chance with all three in the Florida Derby is 480.

    But wait! There is not a single horse in the U.A.E. Derby that I view as a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat at this point, and that only leaves six other 170-point races. Can I really be expected to pick the winners of all six of them? Aren't I better off taking Shanghai Bobby and Orb than a stab at who will win (or even show up) in the wide open Blue Grass Stakes and/or Arkansas Derby?

    Here's who I know I have to have: Itsmyluckyday (Florida Derby), Verrazano (Wood Memorial), and Oxbow (Arkansas Derby). That leaves me three spots, and with the five-team limit I'll mix them up using the following scheme: the fourth spot will go between Flashback and Hear The Ghost in the Santa Anita Derby and the fifth and sixth spots will go among Palace Malice, Code West, Shanghai Bobby, and Orb in the Louisiana and Florida Derbys.

    Yeah, I'm giving up some 100-point expectations there by A) not including the Blue Grass Stakes at all and B) doubling up in the FL Derby, but I just can't ignore how strongly I feel about Orb and Shanghai Bobby being good horses.

    FULL DISCLOSURE: Part of my strategy is guided by having to compete against fewer people in the Churchill Downs Inc. employee league. If you're gunning for the top spot among ALL PLAYERS, then I absolutely would make at least one of my teams with obtaining the perfect score in mind.

  • Carryover action at Turf Paradise

    POSTED Jan 15, 2013 By Unknown
    I can't exactly call Turf Paradise one of my favorite tracks to play, as I rarely check into it on a weekend day of racing, but it's definitely a track I like to play, as its Pick 5 carryovers into Monday or Tuesday help scratch my itch during an otherwise down time of the handicapping for most players.

     I've actually been laying low most of this year with only a few spot plays dotting my wagering in the New Year. Between a Vegas trip at the end of this month and looking at my results for 2012, I wanted to focus my bankroll on poker a preserve a decent nut for spring racing (read: Keeneland).

     That's not to say I'll ignore opportunities, though, and a $26k+ carryover into a Pick 5 certainly piques my interest. It's a navigable but not-what-I-would-call easy sequence that would cost $38,400 to buy, but I'm looking to invest about 1% of that.

     There are three horses I see as the most likely winners of the five races: #7 Flawless Jewel in leg 1 (race 5), #2 Vikkilee in leg 2 (race 6), and #10 Set'n Ready in leg 4 (race 8). I'm going to play so that at least two of the three have to win.

     Here's the ABC grid to riches; post time is 4:22 p.m. EST

  • Kentucky Derby EXACTA morning line

    POSTED Apr 30, 2012 By Unknown
    Anyone can make a morning line for win odds, but what will the exactas pay (for a dollar)?

    Don't worry, I didn't put as much thought into this as it looks like. I basically took the approach that certain groups of horses are going to be similarly bet and then made tweaks based on running style. E.g., I have Hansen and I'll Have Another as similar price in the win slot of the exacta but favored the latter slightly in the place spot because some might consider Hansen more a win threat based on running style.

    I also didn't take a stand on whether Bodemeister or Union Rags will be favored. It's possible that one could take more money in the win pool but not in exotics. The big question I tried to answer with them is, How low will the chalk-chalk exacta pay? I'm pretty comfortable with the $30-$35 range and went with $30.

    Not surprisingly, I figure Trinniberg to be the longest shot in both the win and exacta pools. With the largest exacta payout of $9,500 projected to occur if he defeats either Prospective or Rousing Sermon in 2nd.

    Speaking of the projected payouts, to make the formula work that spits out the percetage of the pool and odds, I input $9,999 for the combo that would include the same horse in first and second, which of course can't really happen.