Win and you're on the bubble: The Lexington Stakes
A cut in purse for the Lexington Stakes along with an increased premium placed on graded stakes earnings has tarnished some of the luster this race gained as a Grade 2 event that catapulted Charismatic to dual classic wins and a Horse of the Year title in 1999.
Still, there IS $200,000 up for grabs, and the winner's $120,000 share of that could be enough to get some of these into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, the winner of last year's Lexington--Derby Kitten--was ranked in the high 20s on the graded stakes earning list with just a week before the draw and got in so certainly the winner of this event would be in with a chance.
The Jerome is the other graded race for three-year-olds this weekend, but as the TCI boys point out below, the Lexington is far more likely to produce a Derby starter, though the Jerome can obviously have classic implications with the Preakness and Belmont as well.
I like Morgan's Guerrilla most but no one would completely shock me in this race--including 50-to-1 morning line outsider All Squared Away. Since I like Font so much in the 7th race allowance I'll try to get him home first so I can go deep in the two stakes.
And of course it wouldn't be a Derby prep weekend without Toga Tout, though he is getting pretty haughty about his record of picking favorites each week! That said, he's against morning line favorite Castaway this week.
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