Showing posts with label Lexington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lexington. Show all posts

  • Our Old Kentucky Home

    POSTED Sep 25, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

     
    The harness scene changes this month’s end to the prosaic, pastoral Kentucky, adorned with golden plumes of wildflowers and deep with equine history. Some of the year’s best pacers and trotters ship to Lexington for the traditional Grand Circuit meeting at The Red Mile. It’s the last stop before the Breeders Crown and the stars are coming south for the big cash events on the two-turn mile with the clay-colored surface. 
     
    We pick up the action for week one on Friday, Sept. 27 and guide you through Sunday, Sept. 29 as week one presents Bluegrass Stakes for two- and three-year-olds and Allerage Stakes for the older set. The Sunday, Sept. 29 contenders’ list appears in the H2W list under The Red Mile below.
     
    Don’t forget to check out the horses-to-watch (H2W) list below for live contenders in overnights all over North America. The exclusive list is hot with possibilities for win, place, show and exotics—however you use them, use them. The H2W produces some mighty prices and excellent exotic elements that boost combo prices.
     
    TwinSpires offers special bonuses for Hoosier Park throughout the harness meet. Check out the Hoosier details here. 
     
    Our featured Breeders Crown Countdown event this week is coverage of eligibles from the Sept. 28 New York Sires Stakes Champion races at Yonkers Raceway. For that analysis to help you with your wagering decisions, Go to Breeders Crown Countdown.

    Friday’s Bluegrass

    Three divisions each of the Bluegrass Stakes for frosh-colt trotters and filly pacers adorn the Sept. 27 program. The top stars of the divisions are on hand to compete for total purses over a half-million dollar. 

    The colt trotters’ trio of stakes each has a seven-colt field for a purse of $90,100. 

    In the first split, Father Patrick, one of the season’s top division-dominating steeds, comes off of two spectacular races, both wins (William Wellwood Memorial elim and final at Mohawk). He has lost only one of eight starts in his career and that was a photo-for-win second in an overnight at The Meadowlands. He is simply the best of the young trottin’ boys and impossible to bet on or against. Look for exotics. 

    In round two for the colts, six foes try to beat the obvious public choice, Exodus Hanover. He is worth aiming at with an upset, preferably Odds On Amethyst. He has speed and does not have to face “Patrick” here and may go wire to wire at a decent price.

    In the colts’ finale, we have to look for Outburst to overcome Southwind Spirit. The latter may offer no odds to whet a bet while Outburst is improving and could take the winner’s photo for trainer Noel Daley.

    The pacing fillies will race for just shy of $260,000 in their triptych. Precocious Beauty is the star of the first split and she will leave from post 8 to continue a recent ruling of this division. Her 1:50.2 speed badge is almost creepy for this division. However, due to post 9, Somethinincredible may be the overlooked contender and therefore the best bet in a strong field that will test Precocious Beauty to her limit. 

    In the second filly pacing round, Caviat Shelly is a budding daughter of Somebeachsomewhere, whose frosh product in both sex categories are doing far better than most are being wagered to do. Take her here, her post only increases the value.

    Finally, split three leads us again to an outside post as we give Bahama Blue another chance to join the Somebeachsomewhere-winning-frosh club and, again, with a near-guaranteed double-digit price for the support.

    Saturday In The Bluegrass 

    Somewhere Fancy won’t take as much money as he should but this frosh-colt pacer is ready for prime-time action. His recent Mohawk mile is monstrous, though he lost, but it shows that trainer Linda Toscano has high hopes for this good colt.

    Next on the frosh-colt pacing agenda, we have to go with Let’s Drink On It. Coming off two brutal trips, he may race back to his Metro elim win, which is a race that beats them all here. He might not fool many bettors for all his class, so you may wish to key him on top in exotics if you don’t like the win price, especially since chaos rules in all that follow him home if he is first.

    Again for $77,000-plus, the third frosh-colt pace offers a possible outsider with the Tony Alagna-trained Gold Rocks. He is in great form but may not be given the respect he deserves for winning the Lou Babic elim and final, no less his big race at Freehold before coming here, where he was third as the dead-on choice after a horrid trip around four turns. He has the breeding, for sure, and should offer the price we like.

    Speaking of prices, next for this division comes Carracci Hanover. Bound to be a longshot, he has not proven unworthy of his second place finish two back at 36-1. His Champlain Stakes fifth was not a bad race and the bettors knew it, reducing him to 13-1. Watch out for him here, he could surprise and leave maiden status.

    Soph-filly pacers are also in flight with with a single $122,000 event. There are no easy pickings in round one for these gals. A case can be made for many of the 11 involved. That being written, judge the value of Aunt Caroline for yourself. She is in fine fettle for this and shows signs of being a good earner.

    Soph-colt pacers, those glamour boys, also go at it again, this time in two $95,500 Bluegrass Stakes this Saturday. What we have here, of course, in the first split for them is another arena for the fabulous Captaintreacherous. It’s a far better field to conquer than last week’s timid group at Hoosier but this year’s soph colt pacer has added glitter to the glamour division and should be able to handle them with little effort. Can you scrape up a worth exacta or triple from his highness? That’s your business; we are going to watch and revel in the magnificence of this guy.

    Split two is another shot for one of our “Jug” choices, Wake Up Peter. Still looking for his first win this season he has been batting with the big boys as trainer Tony Alagna’s other colt, pacing in the shadow of Captaintreacherous. Toss out his Jug from post 8 and give this guy another chance to pace his Cane Pace mile, which here would win it over these and pay off well.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races.

    The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Batavia
    9/27/13, Armbro Barnes R1; +Mythical Hall R4; +Haste R4
    9/28/13, Blackwalls R5

    Freehold
    9/28/13, +Useful Hanover R5; +Saywhatuneedtosay ae R8; +Newsam R9

    Lebanon
    9/27/13, Moira’s Bliss R13
    9/28/13, +Livelikeurdying R9; +Surf La R12

    Maywood
    9/26/13, Greg And Flex R3; Skyway Titan R7
    9/27/13, Zeller’s Island R8

    Meadows
    9/27/13, +Bohemian Spell R12

    Northfield
    9/27/13, Flying Lucia R1; +Bench’s Beauty R2; Iemma Machine Baby R3; Twinky R4; +Masked Lover R8; +Blissfull Jessie R9; Felicia Hall R10; Twin B Shasta R13

    Red Mile
    9/29/13, Shared Past R5; Mister Herbie R7; Clear Vision R9; Mistery Woman R10; Deadliest Catch R11; Lindy's Tru Grit R12; Lauderdale R13

    Rosecroft
    9/28/13, +Hit The Hill R4; Techno Paysan R4; Crown Time Yooray R7; +Littlebitofthunder R12
     
    Vernon

    9/28/13, +St Lads Speedy ae R3

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition. 

    Top photo by Thom Pye

  • Will wilcard weekend yield clues

    POSTED Apr 19, 2013 By Unknown
    When Churchill Downs unveiled its new points system to determine who could start in the Kentucky Derby (in the event that more than 20 enter the race), the Coolmore Lexington, Derby Trial, and Illinois Derby were written off as prep races because of the dearth of points each offered in the new scheme.

     The Lexington and Derby Trial are part of a wildcard round of races that followed the Derby Championship Series where races offered 85 points in leg 1 and 170 points in leg 2 with virtual automatic berths guaranteed for winning a race in leg 1 (50 points) or finished first and second (100 & 40 points, respectively, in leg 2).

     The wild card races are worth only 34 points each, and many thought that even a win (worth 20 points) wouldn't be enough unless a horse already had points. Fast forward to the evening of the first wild card race, and it's conceivable that a win all but assures a spot in the gate (and certainly one among the entries, which is capped at 24), and any points might be enough.

     The Illinois Derby does not offer any points, but with the list of horses officially pointing for the Derby dwindling you might not need any to get in, anyway.

     All that is my long-winded way of saying what looked like an "off" weekend on the Derby trail months ago now absolutely bears watching. It did, anyway, from a Triple Crown perspective, but I'm not ready to write these races off for the Derby considering you might not need any points, anyway.

     One guy not looking ahead to this weekend from a Derby perspective is Joel Cunningham from Triple Crown Insider, who "solidified" his top ten for the Derby when the Derby Championship Series concluded. Not that I disagree with that approach. Even if a horse (or horses) who runs well this weekend does point toward the Derby it's tough to see him (or her in the case of Pure Fun)as a top ten player. The exception might be Sunbean.

        

    One thing Joel talks about that I didn't think of until after watching the video, is how the next two weekends could affect the pace of the Derby. As of right now, hardly anyone would call it "blistering", but if Titletown Five goes from the Derby Trial (the final points race) to the Derby itself then that changes things considerably.

     Because of the lack of points on the bottom end of the Derby leaderboard (and the possibility that 20 might not line up as of now), these next two weekends are anything but time off from prep watching.


    But that doesn't mean it's time off from Derby handicapping, either. As Jill Byrne notes in the video above, 15 horses are already at Churchill Downs, and regardless of location, final preparations are well underway for those with Derby aspirations.

    Your preparations can begin as well with the Ultimate Oaks-Derby Handicapping Package from Brisnet.com, which features six great products for just $25. And our Derby Betting Guide is already available. Check it out.

  • It's not the last chance, it's a big chance

    POSTED Apr 13, 2013 By Unknown
    Leg 2 of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com concludes today, and while many have called it "the last chance" for three-year-olds to guarantee themselves a spot in the starting gate, that's really only because of where the races fall on the calendar since these 170-point chances today are the same as the previous five Leg 2 races on March 30 and April 6.

     I.e., if these races were two weeks ago they'd be just as valuable and prestigious. These races aren't the last chance, they're a big chance--for a Grade 1 win, big money, points toward the Derby, and to join a long list of some of racing's biggest stars.


    It's a big chance for gamblers, too. I typically hate the term "wide-open" race, but it's impossible to ignore that the favorite in either race is extremely vulnerable. Even the top choices in both races are.




    My main focus today is unquestionably the blockbuster 12-race Blue Grass card. What a blessing to watch Horse of the Year Wise Dan win his six-year-old debut, turn the page and see this card with three Grade 1 races, an all-stakes Pick 4, two Pick 5s, and of course one of the top preps for the world's most prestigious horse race. 

    Unlike Friday, though, there are precious few "gimmes" on this card. Whereas Wise Dan was nearly a free square in his race, no such block exists on today's card. The ABC grid is below.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Oct 7, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The last week of The Red Mile’s Grand Circuit meet began on Thursday, Oct. 4, but we were concentrating on the last three days in Kentucky, when the bulk of the Breeders Crown-eligibles prepped for the main event this month in high-class events.

    Friday and Saturday and Sunday suggestions from this blog resulted in some big winners and certainly made betting at The Red Mile produce black ink for wagering accounts paying attention.

    Let’s go backward, beginning with Sunday, Oct. 7, Kentucky Futurity day at the Lexington oval.

    Both of the main events were conducted in the “heat” format, which we embrace because one can scout great overlays in the elims (first heats) that produce the final field (heat two). We were spot on with the Kentucky Filly Futurity, handing out Oasis Dream as the winner of one of the elim heats. Oasis Dream won and paid $27.60.
     
    Though we lost the second heat because our choice, Bluff (27-1) did not fire, we chose the filly based on the scenario that it was very likely Check Me Out, the queen of the division, would lose her first race since she broke in a main event on Hambletonian day. That was the premise for chosing Bluff and the premise turned into reality—just not with our horse. The longshot winning was Win Missy B (see photo left), paying a bit less than Bluff offered. Though we cannot take credit for the winner, if the scenario was accepted and blog followers chose a filly to upset, you can thank us for that; it was an exclusive opinion expressed nowhere else in the harness business.

    Then there was the main event, the colts in the Kentucky Futurity (actually open to fillies but they rarely compete). With the same elim-heat-wagering mentality we chose My MVP to win the second heat over some well bet popular members—and we won. Taking his elim heat, My MVP paid $19.60.

    My MVP lost all of his value in the final, though he won it, paying $6.60. These two elim-heat results (thought they did not pan out in this years Little Brown Jug) prove that this is a profit-making strategy.

    In the first elim heat for the boys we finished third at 9-1 with Another Amaretto, who finished third in the final at 39-1.

    Saturday at The Red Mile we had two fairly obvious winners. In the first International Stallion Stake (ISS) for frosh-colt pacers we won with Fool Me Once ($6.20). We stayed with popular opinion in another ISS with the monstrous pacer Captaintreacherous, who won again ($2.40).

    On Friday at The Red Mile a single hit made the whole program worthwhile in the profit department. Even if you lost with six of the seven horses we suggested, you won money due to the success of Hit The Curb. The frosh-filly pacer won an ISS and paid $35.80.

    A footnote on Friday, though it was a loss unless you play triples and take some of our overlays into consideration, was Lauderdale. This frosh-colt trotter finished third at 93-1 and that made some exotic-wagering players very happy. In that department, also, was Broadway Prince, another frosh-colt trotter, who finished second to the fave in an ISS split at 8-1.

    Straight-out failure was in the mix on Friday, however, as we bombed in the Maywood stakes, when one of our horses broke at the start of the race (9-1) and never had a chance and another was fourth at 13-1.

    Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog continues as we head for the eliminations of the season’s divisional classics. We will be reporting live on the night of the elims and finals from Woodbine, so be ready (see below) and follow us for the top value wagers available anywhere in harness racing.

    Review all of the season’s great harness action at the archives we produce at Hambletonian Society’s page.

    News And Notes

    Hambletonian and Canadian Trotting Classic champion Market Share was not eligible to the Kentucky Futurity but trainer Linda Toscano gave the colt a good workout by racing on Saturday, Oct. 6 in a $10,000 Late Closer at The Red Mile. The non-disputed leader of his division took a lifetime mark at 1-9, going the two turns in 1:50.

    Tim Tetrick was in the sulky for the $2.10 win. Market Share is poised to take on the best of his division in the Breeders Crown, with eliminations at Woodbine on Oct. 19 and Oct. 20.

    Also prepping for Breeders Crown eliminations, working out at Mohawk Racetrack on Oct. 5 were Daylon Magician and L Dees Lioness. The former, a four-year-old horse trotter, won a qualifier with his usual pilot, Jack Moiseyev. Frosh filly pacer L Dees Lioness put in a tightener for trainer Casie Coleman and driver Scott Zeron, winning in 1:56.

    Googoo Gaagaa, the trotting son of a pacing sire who stormed through the glamour-boy trotting division this season when he met division members, qualified in 2:00.2 at Rosecroft Raceway recently but not for the big “Crown” dance. The son of Cam’s Rocket, a Maryland-based sire, cannot race in the prime events for the same reason he was unable to be in the Hambletonian, Canadian Trotting Classic and Kentucky Futurity—his pacing sire.

    Harrah’s Philadelphia is open again. The fall meet goes through Friday, Dec. 21, with racing Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays starting at 12:40 p.m. EST. There is a special program on Nov. 3, held in league with the Breeders Cup thoroughbred series at Santa Anita. On Nov. 2 the post changes to 3:30 p.m. and racing on the Friday after U.S. Thanksgiving, Nov. 23, goes under the lights at 6:30 p.m.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. Last week’s Sunday ticket produced two winners, Lismaraslady ($13.80) and Classy Chassy ($11.60). This week’s Saturday ticket produced Born To Rockn Roll ($13.20).

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

    Get onto our mailing list and receive a free copy of a classic horseracing fiction book by clicking here.

    Check out special podcasts available for beginners and veterans of harness betting, a new series available free so you can learn more to bet more and win more at TwinSpires. Click here.
     
    Cartoon by Thom Pye

  • Kentucky Derby 138 playlist

    POSTED Apr 28, 2012 By Unknown
    The Kentucky Derby is all about tradition, and one of my favorite Derby traditions is that fans of the race create their own, and one of mine is to do a Kentucky Derby play list for the about-70-minute drive from my garage to Louisville.

    Catching up on all the final preparations via social media and watching and wagering on opening night at Churchill Downs this weekend certainly helps get me in the Derby mood, but nothing stirs emotions like setting a course for west on Interstate 64 and driving among the Thoroughbred farms toward a destination nearly everyone in this industry dreams about.

    In that way, I try to have elements of celebration in each year's mix. Getting to be a part of this each year is a dream come true for me. As Craig Finn says in "Constructive Summer": "Let this be my annual reminder that we can all be something bigger."

    This year's mix.
    1. "Whoomp! (There It Is)" by Tag Team
    2. "Blow" by Ke$sha
    3. "The Jump Off" by Lil' Kim
    4. "Ignition (remix)" by R. Kelly
    5. "Some Nights" by fun.
    6. "From Blown Speakers" by the New Pornographers
    7. "Constructive Summer" by The Hold Steady
    8. "Daylight" by Matt & Kim
    9. "MMMBop" by Hanson
    10. "Good Life" by OneRepublic
    11. "Off to the Races" by Lana Del Rey
    12. "Sometime Around Midnight" by Airborne Toxic Event
    13. "Tell 'Em" by Sleight Bells
    14. "Mexican Radio" by Wall of Voodoo
    15. "Bottle Rocket" by The Go! Team
    16. "Mental Cabaret" by Polyphonic Spree
    17. "Cornflake Girl" by Tori Amos
    18. "Us" by Regina Spektor
    19. "Thrice All American" by Neko Case

  • Win and you're on the bubble: The Lexington Stakes

    POSTED Apr 21, 2012 By Unknown
    A cut in purse for the Lexington Stakes along with an increased premium placed on graded stakes earnings has tarnished some of the luster this race gained as a Grade 2 event that catapulted Charismatic to dual classic wins and a Horse of the Year title in 1999.

    Still, there IS $200,000 up for grabs, and the winner's $120,000 share of that could be enough to get some of these into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, the winner of last year's Lexington--Derby Kitten--was ranked in the high 20s on the graded stakes earning list with just a week before the draw and got in so certainly the winner of this event would be in with a chance.

    The Jerome is the other graded race for three-year-olds this weekend, but as the TCI boys point out below, the Lexington is far more likely to produce a Derby starter, though the Jerome can obviously have classic implications with the Preakness and Belmont as well.

    I like Morgan's Guerrilla most but no one would completely shock me in this race--including 50-to-1 morning line outsider All Squared Away. Since I like Font so much in the 7th race allowance I'll try to get him home first so I can go deep in the two stakes.

    And of course it wouldn't be a Derby prep weekend without Toga Tout, though he is getting pretty haughty about his record of picking favorites each week! That said, he's against morning line favorite Castaway this week.


  • Autumn’s Kentucky Crusade

    POSTED Sep 28, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    This week the Grand Circuit lauches its traditional two-week autumn stay at Lexington, Kentucky’s Red Mile. Both weeks highlight top events, including the Oct. 2 Kentucky Futurity for glamour-boy trotters. Betting that program through TwinSpires gets you 10X points.  

    Also at The Red Mile are Bluegrass Stakes and Allerage Stakes for the young and the elders still standing in their divisions as October opens its jaws.  

    All the “money” horses that are Breeders Crown-eligibles want to thrive in Lexington before their connections decide on dropping them in the box for the “Crown” elims. We are covering all the division activity here and in our exclusive blog, Breeders Crown Countdown. The results about eligibles for the season-ending championships will be available regularly at the Hambletonian Society website’s area for the Crown.  

    You can read some exclusive Red Mile handicapping analysis at the Countdown page, too. Scroll to read stories on Crown activity, including races, picks and plays.  

    Bluegrass Guys And Gals


    Bluegrass Stakes for freshmen highlight the Friday, Sept. 30 program at the Red Mile.  

    There are four miles including fields of frosh-colt trotters. The first presents the dynamo Delano and calls for a pass. The second looks like a shot for Ray Schnittker’s Muscolo, who could be a wire-to-wire winner here at a decent price over One In A Million and Big Chocolate. Next, Greg Peck, the brains behind Muscle Hill, has a 2012 hopeful in From Above and he looks like he has what it takes to go fast, with a two-of-three win column so far. Then we will take another shot with Melt In Your Mouth, who was dull in Canada though handed a tough trip.  

    As for the filly pacers, these green gals have two splits and one invites American Jewel to win her eighth straight, so call it a pass since she can do it. However, in the other split, the outside Destiny’s Chance will possibly be ignored at the windows and that would be too tempting to pass. Ron Burke has her tight now.  

    Saturday, Oct. 2’s Bluegrasses are for frosh-colt pacers and soph-filly pacers and the Allerage Stakes present older trotters and pacers.  

    The frosh pacers’ first Bluegrass division could be a fine theater for Hillbilly Hanover. After winning a Keystone Classics at the Meadows, he is the “now” horse and a price could accompany his 8-hole start considering the popularity of the 4, 5 and 6 horses. The same situation surfaces in the second division. Dick Mctracy also scored big in Pennsylvania and also gets post 8 and has to face some heavy favorites. In the third round, Special Blend could show some sizzling speed against these, while in the fourth chapter, Verdad could be overlooked by the general public.  

    The single mile for Bluegrass filly pacers could be quite a shuffle show. There is speed all over this field and that could hand the race over to Ace Of Pace. The lightly raced gal should be all out here, strategically placed and quite the price.  

    The Allerage pacers event is a star-studded field of 10. The crowd, however, will most likely pour the money on We Will See, fresh off his record race—the fastest ever at Pocono Downs. Any number of scenarios can be expected here but we kind of like the speed-burning drama that finds the winner the last pacer standing. That could mean Bettor Sweet or a late splash from Foiled Again, who is versatile enough to catch speed as well as command it.  

    The Allerage trotters are the best around, with San Pail versus Arch Madness the expected dangers. Could Lucky Jim control the fractions? He has been flat lately and offering some fine prices. I would not dismiss an upset on this oval by a great horse that has been his own worst enemy.  

    Back To The ‘Futurity’


    At press time the Oct. 2 Kentucky Futurity fields have not been drawn. This event is the only one for glamour-boy trotters that is executed in heats on the same program. There will probably by two elim-heats of at least seven if we are lucky, since a lot of trainers don’t want to put their horses through the stress of two and possibly three miles of racing on one day.

    Check the Countdown blog for a special “Futurity” report before Sunday, Oct. 2.   

    Cal Exotic


    Oct. 1’s no-takeout late Pick 4 at Cal Expo is a target again this week.  

    Leg 1
    Awesome Deal N (9) dueled for the lead early and kept afloat well to finish third. He is a good single in this poor group.  

    Leg 2
    Long Last Look (6) was beaten soundly from post 9 last out. This guy has a history of winning like he can read the toteboard, coming off of poor trips and scoring at decent prices. Big Guy Two Win (9) was hung for three calls and well bet but he couldn’t sustain the trip.  

    Leg 3
    Whoop And Shout (1) was the beaten favorite last week, coming in second. You Go Shirl (8) managed to weave a trip and pick up third money at 51-1.  

    Leg 4
    Mow Em Down (1) is fresh and should prosper from the inside start. The Future (7) likes this track and could be sharp in his return to the big mile.  

    The ticket: 9/6,9/1,8/1,7  

    Remember to play any of the above to win, also, if you feel the win price offered is an overlay.  

     (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)