TwinSpires.com Blog

It was the blurst of times for the four horses who needed a Coolmore Lexington Stakes win to enter the Kentucky Derby picture as none even placed in the $200,000 Grade 3 event, and my pick "on top"--Morgan's Guerilla--finished last.

I learned (and earned!) more from the race as a handicapper than as a Derby observer, but there were some promising efforts: Summer Front finishing second off the layoff, Hammers Terror holding on for third when the other speed feed, and Gold Megillah closing late on the outside to get up for fourth. The race may have fallen off as a Derby prep, but there were some useful efforts on display nevertheless.

As Jon Siegel says in this week's Triple Crown Insider recap video, "We'll see what happens with all these horses--see if any of them move forward--because right now connections say they don't know what that next step is going to be."

TCI will be on location this week to discuss all things Derby with your scribe (Ed DeRosa) and The Paulick's Report Ray Paulick.

A cut in purse for the Lexington Stakes along with an increased premium placed on graded stakes earnings has tarnished some of the luster this race gained as a Grade 2 event that catapulted Charismatic to dual classic wins and a Horse of the Year title in 1999.

Still, there IS $200,000 up for grabs, and the winner's $120,000 share of that could be enough to get some of these into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, the winner of last year's Lexington--Derby Kitten--was ranked in the high 20s on the graded stakes earning list with just a week before the draw and got in so certainly the winner of this event would be in with a chance.

The Jerome is the other graded race for three-year-olds this weekend, but as the TCI boys point out below, the Lexington is far more likely to produce a Derby starter, though the Jerome can obviously have classic implications with the Preakness and Belmont as well.

I like Morgan's Guerrilla most but no one would completely shock me in this race--including 50-to-1 morning line outsider All Squared Away. Since I like Font so much in the 7th race allowance I'll try to get him home first so I can go deep in the two stakes.

And of course it wouldn't be a Derby prep weekend without Toga Tout, though he is getting pretty haughty about his record of picking favorites each week! That said, he's against morning line favorite Castaway this week.