And the Kentucky Derby Winner Is…
POSTED May 1, 2012
By
Derek Simon
SIMON
HISTORICAL INVESTMENT TECHNIQUE HAPPENS
Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine,
I broke my Kentucky Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave
Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.
So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you
may be asking?
Well, Fountaine was — and still is,
for that matter — a turf writer for the NY
Post. And, every year (or so it seemed), he published a system for
selecting the Derby winner in “American Turf Monthly,” a magazine devoted to
convincing horseplayers that handicapping can be broken down to a few simple
rules and an insufficient workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter
bit, of course, but there’s no denying that ATM loves its angles and methods.
Fountaine’s system was a perfect
example. It awarded points to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of
criteria that the veteran scribe deemed to be important — and it was that
criteria that pointed me to Swale in 1984.
Of course, the older and wiser I got,
the more dubious I became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially
since Fountaine’s standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example,
he allotted 30 points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the
victor got squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th
Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?
Still, there’s no denying that systems
like Fountaine’s are a lot of fun, so in April of 2009 I decided to join the
party by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky
Derby. Unfortunately, the method lived down to its acronym in the 2009 Run for
the Roses, but I re-tooled it the following spring and, voila, Super Saver
proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique doesn’t stink, as he won
the Derby just like the method predicted he would.
Unfortunately, last year’s results
were back in the toilet, but I’m confident that this year things will be
different. Below are the top system contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Derby:
1st: Daddy Nose Best
2nd: Union Rags
3rd:
El Padrino
4th: Sabercat
Best of luck to you all and remember:
it pays to know your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique on the first
Saturday in May.
A REAL GEM
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiAYy-L8TsNpUlZfQc5eP0LX9DZZpvlGQHv8GDuwize2Z81XguomRKbu9tzosaeZdC2vB6KvdS2tnXyGYs8hDY-VzJCjCPt_DSx5SSFu15Cup__EMHATPEE3RwsZG4f2xGmO1mB5f41SHf/s400/UndefeatedDerbyEntrants.jpg) |
(Click on
image to enlarge)
|
One
horse that I’ve recently warmed up to is Gemologist, the undefeated Tiznow colt
trained by Todd Pletcher. Although I rated him highly in my Kentucky Derby
Betting Guide, I was still on the fence as to whether or
not I would use him on Derby Day. After his early morning drill at Palm Meadows
on Sunday, however, I think he has to be played (if the odds warrant it, of
course).
Gemologist
worked four furlongs in company with last year’s Demoiselle champ,
Disposablepleasure, in 50.49 seconds.
Granted,
on the surface, a half-mile in 50+ seconds is hardly worth writing home about,
but that clocking was 1.27 seconds quicker than the next-fastest four-furlong
drill on the tab. And there were some pretty decent animals stretching their
legs at Palm Meadows on Sunday, including probable Kentucky Oaks favorite Grace
Hall, Grade I winner Brilliant Speed and stakes winners Turbo Compressor and
Alma d’Oro.
True,
workout times are not the same as race times and Gemologist worked before a
second wave of rain showers made the track even gooier, but I was still
impressed by the improvement the Winstar Farm colt showed since his last
appearance at Palm Meadows on April 20; couple that with the stellar record
that undefeated horses have in the Derby (see chart above) and Gemologist looks
like a top contender.
MORE POST ONE PONDERINGS
Last
week, in a column entitled “Post
One Poppycock,” I produced a host of statistics refuting
the claim that the no. 1 post position is a Kentucky Derby death sentence.
With
the passion and persistence of Dr. Seuss’ Sam-I-Am, I showed that in small
fields or large, present day or past, horses drawing the rail performed just as
well — if not better — than their opponents. Then, I sat back with a contented
smile on my face and waited for the appreciative e-mails and
you-saved-me-from-drowning-in-my-own-ignorance comments to start flooding in.
But
they didn’t.
Instead,
even my own colleague, Ed
DeRosa, took issue with my findings.
“If
there are 20 horses in the gate then the one hole is a tremendous handicap,” Ed
insisted. “It's INSIDE the inside rail. Yes, there might be some melodrama
involved in how much it impacts a horse and what affect it should have on a
horse's price (especially depending on other variables like his running style
and who is to his outside), but it's absolutely a terrible draw.”
Others
argued that there hadn’t been a Derby winner from post one since Ferdinand in
1986 and that many rail runners had gotten nightmarish trips.
I’ll
address the latter points first.
Since
1986, the Derby has averaged 17.6 entrants, which means the expected success
rate for any single post position is approximately 5.6 percent. Hence, the
chance of the one hole (or any other position in the gate, for that matter) going
winless for 25 years is 23.2 percent — four times greater than the expected win
rate.
With
this in mind, is it any surprise that post position one isn’t the only 25-year
maiden? In the past quarter-century, posts two, nine and 12 are 0-for-25, post
14 is 0-for-24, post 17 is 0-for-18, post 18 is 0-for-15 and post 19 is
0-for-12.
As
to the claim that the rail horse is destined for a rough trip… well, not from
what I witnessed. I watched replays of the last 10 Derbies and here’s what I
saw:
2011: Although the
official chart notes that Archarcharch “steadied early,” I defy anybody to
watch the overhead replay and point out where this supposed steadying took
place — and, if it did take place and I need to have a serious talk with my
Lasik surgeon, how much did it really affect the stretch-running colt? Frankly,
the horse had a dream trip and, regrettably, got hurt.
2010: There’s no denying
that Lookin At Lucky had a horrendous trip, but the bulk of his trouble
occurred when Paddy O’Prado bulled his way through the field and herded Stately
Victor into the favorite’s path nearing the one-mile pole, which would have
happened to any horse in jockey Kent Desormeaux’s path that day. And, frankly,
such rough riding incidents will probably continue given that only two horses
in Derby history have ever been disqualified — just one for a racing-related
incident (Gate Dancer for lugging out and bothering Fali Time in 1984).
2009: West Side Bernie’s
biggest obstacle was not the one hole, but his lack of speed.
2008: Cool Coal Man had a
perfect trip; he simply wasn’t good enough.
2007: Sedgefield, a horse
that wound up winning exactly two lifetime races — both on grass — finished a
very respectable fifth, thanks in part to a rail-hugging run from post one.
2006: Jazil broke inward —
the one thing you can’t do when starting from the rail — yet still managed to
recover and close ground late, eventually finishing in a dead heat for fourth
with Brother Derek.
2005: Another perfect trip
that the overmatched Sort It Out, whose Derby credentials included an allowance
score and a win in the ungraded Whirlaway, was unable to take advantage of.
2004: Outside of steadying
slightly entering the first turn, Limehouse had a dream run, finishing fourth
at 41-1.
2003: Supah Blitz actually
caused more trouble than he endured, veering out at the start and causing
Brancusi to bump with Atswhatimtalknbout.
2002: BC Juvenile winner
Johannesburg had a tough trip… but only because he entered the Kentucky Derby
off of one seven-furlong prep — on the lawn — and seemed ill-prepared to go 10
furlongs.
Now,
let’s tackle the position of the gate. While it may appear that the rail juts out into the path of the one-horse, the
truth is any hindrance the inner rail causes is mild at most. To prove my
point, I offer Exhibit A — an aerial view of the start of the 2008 Run for the
Roses, which featured a full field of 20 horses.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrZ9ZW5UBwuzBiPhB4OVWzmvxJliYCIQ4Av3JXVbgk8WBPRNP_G-tLcmvkEVdCFL5l_Sf2l2Aua8gUqq3RDQK8R7h0eXwxSVRE3rNX2TZpGuencs5EYg2OR0D17xRIoCQ-Hqh4LP_yJ7xF/s400/StartOfDerby2008break.jpg) |
Start of the 2008 Kentucky Derby |
(Click on image to enlarge)
Notice
all the room to the inside of the rail horse, Cool Coal Man — more than enough
to accommodate for the gentle curve of the turn. However, for those who won’t
believe something until they see it with their own eyes, I offer the actual
video of the start of the 2008 Derby.
Hopefully,
this puts the “post one is Derby death” talk to a rest… at least until next
year.
WEEKEND
WIN FACTOR PLAYS & FREE REPORTS
05/04/12 Churchill Downs Win Factor Report
05/04/12 Churchill Downs Pace Profile Report
05/05/12 Churchill Downs Win Factor Report (with fair $1 exacta prices)
05/05/12 Churchill Downs Pace Profile Report
WEEKEND
WAGERS
Among the interesting bets on Oaks/Derby weekend is the Kentucky Oaks-Woodford
Reserve-Kentucky Derby pick-3. Below is my take on the sequence:
Kentucky Oaks
05/04/12
Churchill Downs (race 11)
(Click on image to enlarge)
I
know, I know, Grace Hall is the best filly of all-time and a lock in some
people’s minds to win the Oaks. I agree that she’s very talented, but like I
said on my podcast,
I’m not sure she’ll offer any value in this spot and I’m very concerned about
her last race.
After
recording a 104 Brisnet speed figure (the Oaks par is 102) and -3 late speed
ration (LSR) while finishing a close second in the Davona Dale on Feb. 25,
Grace Hall regressed in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on March 31. Despite winning
that Grade II affair by 6 ½ lengths, the Richard Dutrow-trained filly earned a
101 BSF and — most alarming — a relatively weak -10 LSR. This is reminiscent of
last year’s Oaks favorite Joyful Victory, who followed up a smashing win in the
Honeybee with a ho-hum score in the Fantasy that earned a -11 LSR.
Joyful
Victory finished fourth.
I
think Grace Hall is a contender — this edition of the Oaks doesn’t appear to
be very deep (nothing like last year) — but she’s no cinch.
Two
with reasonable chances to upset the likely favorite are On Fire Baby, who is a
perfect 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs and has reportedly been training great, and
Karlovy Vary, who ran deceptively well in her only try on dirt over this track in
the Grade II Golden Rod Stakes on Nov. 26.
Despite
a five-wide trip that day, Karlovy Kary rallied into a slow pace on the turn
only to tire late. She’s better now and the pace figures to be much more to her
liking.
Hard
Not To Like also deserves a look at a big price.
Contenders:
1, 2, 5, 11.
Suggested Plays: WIN on 1 at odds of 7-2 or greater and/or WIN on 11 at odds of 10-1 or greater.
Woodford Reserve
05/05/12
Churchill Downs (race 10)
(Click on image to enlarge)
It’s
tough no to like last year’s hard-luck BC Mile runner-up Turallure in this
spot, as he always seems to give his best — especially in races featuring large
fields and an honest pace. When Turallure has faced at least nine opponents, he
has never been out of the money, with four wins, three seconds and two thirds
from nine lifetime starts.
If
the favorite does get beat, however (and veteran handicappers know there is a
thin line between the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat on turf), there
are three that I think are most likely to get the job done:
* Doubles
Partner – This guy had a tough trip last time, but still recorded a 98 BSF and
+2 LSR.
* Data
Link – Son of War Front got the best of both Turallure and Doubles Partner last
time at Keeneland and has every right to do so again.
* Papaw
Bodie – If a “Bodie” wins at Churchill Downs on Saturday, I’m hoping it’s this
one. Yeah, he’s an outsider at 30-1 on the morning line, but his April 1 race
at Fair Grounds was much better than it looks on paper. Not only did the son of
Strong Hope record a 102 BSF and +1 LSR in that April Fool’s Day event, but the
race itself earned a 6.7 Key
Race Rating, meaning it was a particularly good Grade II affair.
Contenders:
2, 6, 7, 11.
Suggested Plays: WIN on 2 at odds of 5-2 or greater and/or WIN/PLACE on 11 at odds of 12-1 or
greater.
Kentucky Derby
05/05/12
Churchill Downs (race 11)
(Click on image to enlarge)
I
wrote extensively about the horses I like — and why — in my 2012 Kentucky Derby
Betting Guide, which is available through Brisnet.com for just $10. The
only horse I subsequently feel I shortchanged in that analysis is Gemologist
and I rectified that situation above.
Hence, my final top four win contenders for the 2012 Run for the Roses (and
their fair odds) stand as follows:
16-El Padrino (8-1 fair odds)
4-Union
Rags (9-2)
10-Daddy
Nose Best (8-1)
15-Gemologist
(8-1)
Suggested Plays: WIN on any/all final contenders at or above their fair odds.
(Click on image to enlarge)
22 comments:
Thanks for that Post 1 information. The overhead view is interesting. The head-on shot, for all recent Derbies, seems to show the starting gate "behind" the rail (i.e., it takes a couple of seconds to reach the rail). But the overhead certainly doesn't show the same thing. Maybe it's not a big disadvantage for a horse who breaks well and who has decent early speed, such as Cool Coal Man.
But I'm not going to ignore the fact that there's only been one winner from Post 1 since 1963 (when JFK was president and when a cell phone was something that prisoners wished they had). Additionally, no horse has even finished in the money from Post 1 since Ferdinand's 1986 win.
My picks are Creative Cause, Gemologist, and El Padrino (unless, of course, one of them gets Post 1!!).
Ha, ha. Roy, if one of those horses wins -- from post one -- you're going to need a doctor to extract your foot from... well, someplace it shouldn't be (LOL).
Seriously, though, have a great Derby. I've enjoyed the debate.
Thanks! I'm praying three times a day until the post-position draw.
Kent Desormeaux, winner of three Ky Derbies had this to say today about the post-position draw:
“That would be a good idea,” he said of getting Dullahan off the rail at the outset of the 1 1/4-mile race, so he doesn’t have to fight to avoid being trapped inside the large field. “The 1 stall is almost inside the turn. You have to make a right to get out of there. The positioning for the 1 hole is, you’re already getting shut out. I like to be able to float to my spot on my own.”
LOL. Watch Desormeaux's ride on Paddy O'Prado. If that's his definition of "floating to a spot," I'd hate to see him in an aggressive mode. "Paddy" should have been DQ'd.
I find it more than a little odd that you didn't talk about your picks or reasoning at all.
Derek,
Stop it!
Despite the numbers, the fancy math, the unassailable logic, post one sucks.
Enough!
PTP
PS: It'll be said that post one sucks 47 times this weekend, from people who bet Calvin down to 10-1 on Comma to the Top, a lady in a pink hat that's never been to the races, trainers who could not handicap their way out of a 40/60 odds coin flip, and a few NBC commentators.
That trumps your stuff like a gazillion to one.
Just live it and take it all in.
PTP
LOL PTP.
Ian, I provided in-depth analysis in the Derby Betting Guide (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/special_reps.cgi) that I put out.
I will also delve into the Derby on my podcast (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/twinspires/2012/05/02/twinspires-horse-racing-podcast-wderek-simon) this week (live at 1pm ET on May 2 and archived thereafter).
WHO WILL WIN THE DERBY ???? I LIKE GEMOLOGIST. I THINK HE WILL WIN THE DERBY....THAT HORSE LOVES TO WIN---HAS SPEED BUT CAN STAY BEHIND THE FRONT PACK AND MAKES HIS MOVE AROUND THE TURN WHEN THEY HEAD FOR HOME....NO LOSES ---BEST TRAINER---A GREAT JOCKEY....THAT WILL BE YOUR WINNER.
FOR SECOND AND THIRD ?? CREATIVE CAUSES---ALPHA--TAKE CHARGE ANDY---UNION RAGS..THAT WILL BE MY 2 TRI BOX
Here's my take..have enjoyed the lead up Derek/Ed, keep up the good work.
Easy Part; Order/Selections!
A+,Bodemeister, possibly by daylight!
B+,DaddyNose, Gemol
B,UnionRags,Dullahan,TakeCharge
C,Alpha,Creative,IllHave
C-X,DaddyLong?,Hansen,El Padrino,WentDay, RousingSerm, Sabercat.
X,Trinniberg, Liasion, Optimizer, Prospective, Done Talking.
HardPart; how to bet them!
Have a few fixed at $21(Bode,Gem,Dull,DNose $28) so will let them ride. Will be laying off some also at $21 (Alpha/CC/IHA) and using them as savers only/using that win money to bet some deep trifectas without those 3 on top. See the tri paying say $600min, $900par, $2800max.
Good luck to all. SB
When Daddy Long Legs drew the rail this year, I think the rail was the one who was pissed.
PTP
Ha, ha. Sadly, Daddy Long Legs was my top pick, but now I make him 99-1 ;).
None of the contenders should be compromised by their post positions. Thank god!! My top two picks are Creative Cause and Gemologist. But excellent prices will be had on El Padrino, Daddy Knows Best, and Went the Day Well.
There's a fair chance of an off track on Saturday. Union Rags and El Padrino are the only ones with slop wins. Of the five sloppy or muddy Derby tracks since 1989, four of the winners had previously won in the slop or mud. Only Mine That Bird didn't have an off-track win, and he had raced only on fast tracks.
"Of the five sloppy or muddy Derby tracks since 1989, four of the winners had previously won in the slop or mud. Only Mine That Bird didn't have an off-track win, and he had raced only on fast tracks."
Good stuff, Roy. Not surprisingly (LOL), I love stats like this.
Thanks, Derek. I can't wait for the race. We're so overdue for a star.
Hi fellows
Has anybody a link to see the race from abroad US?
Thanks
Anonymous, I don't outside of getting a TwinSpires account (if that's possible for you).
I'd try to tape it and post it to my Facebook Wall for you... but I'm concerned someone would post something about the result in the meantime.
Thanks Derek
You´re a very nice person.
Sorry this took so long. Click or copy and paste the link below to watch the race:
http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/05/2012-kentucky-derby-video.html
The information you share is great, please continue to write about this topic regularly
We both have the same problem. Go to the game among us to play exciting action games while you look for the answer.
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