• What odds for I'll Have Another?

    POSTED Jun 5, 2012
    Big Brown at 3-to-10 ($2.60) and Smarty Jones at 7-to-20 ($2.70) have skewed my thinking on what I'll Have Another's post time odds will be.

    The former looked invincible following his wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes while the latter was one of the most popular horses in a generation. They were also both favored in their previous classic wins.

    That is not in play with I'll Have Another, who was the ninth choice in the Derby and second choice in the Preakness. In fact, he has never been favored in any of his seven career starts.

    Funny Cide was an even money favorite when third to the superior Empire Maker, who paid $6.00 that day in what I have often called "the overlay of the century." Empire Maker was favored in that year's Derby and skipped the Preakness after finishing second to Funny Cide, who won the Preakness as the favorite.

    War Emblem was 5-to-4 when eighth in the 2002 Derby. Like Funny Cide, he won the Preakness as the favorite after being a much bigger price in the Derby. Charismatic was 8-to-5 when third in the 1999 Belmont. He was an even bigger price than all of the aforementioned Derby winners when he wore the roses and wasn't favored in the Preakness either.

    Real Quiet was 4-to-5 when narrowly missing to Victory Gallop, who had been favored in the Preakness but was 9-to-2 in the Belmont. Silver Charm was 21-to-20 (a touch over even money) when second to Touch Gold.

    Immediately after the Preakness I initially thought that I'll Have Another would be in the 1-to-2 or 3-to-5 range because of all the souvenir win tickets that will be acquired on him, but his two-race win parlay of $136.92 ranks sixth (ahead of just War Emblem's $163.40 and Charismatic's $607.24) among the last eight dual classic winners to attempt a Triple Crown sweep (see chart at bottom).

    I do think the rarity of the Triple Crown among race fans (anyone younger than 34 hasn't been alive for one let alone how old you'd have to be to remember one) adds to the zest for $2 win tickets, and Smarty Jones' $3.30 place price certainly shows people buy in bulk (he'd have paid $2.70 to win, "that's OK"), but the fervor to bet on I'll Have Another just isn't there especially considering the top two threats in this race--Union Rags and Dullahan--took more money than he did in the Derby and still have their supporters.

    So, I cheated a little bit when making this line. I can't imagine ever seeing a "9-to-10" morning line, but that's what I put I'll Have Another at. He'll be "4-to-5" on the board, but my math works a lot easier if I acknowledge him at 9-to-10, which is $3.80 to win. If I made I'll Have Another 4-to-5 straight (.8-to-1) then I thought both Dullahan and Union Rags would be 6-to-1, and I don't see that happening. Even with this line I'm worried I have the longshots too high. I could see Street Life at 12-to-1 and Optimizer at 20-to-1 and the rest no higher than 30-to-1, but then we're talking 3-to-2 on I'll Have Another and that ain't happenin'.

    So 9-to-10 it is on I'll Have Another, and if Dullahan is 5-to-1 then I'm betting him on the nose, but more on those strategies later in the week.


    Jones Wilson said...

    I was impressed, I have to say. In fact, I rarely encounter educational and funny blogs. You may strike a nail on your head. Your idea is wonderful. The problem is one in which adequate individuals are not speaking intellectually. I am pleased that I found this by seeing this and searching for one thing.
    Regards - www.office.com/setup

    waston said...

    Microsoft Office Setup is the package of Microsoft limitation programming which joins a blend of employments, affiliations, and host like Excel, PowerPoint, PowerPoint, Word, OneNote, Distributer and Access. Near to the working structures, these employments are Microsoft's key things that are everything seen as used programming on Earth. Microsoft Office Setup packages all the absolute best programming which Microsoft proceeds onward to the table.


    malina smith said...

    Really great article, Glad to read the article. It is very informative for us. Thanks for posting.Norton™
    provides industry-leading antivirus and security software
    for your PC, Mca, and mobile devices Visit @:McAfee.com/activate | Mcafee.com/activate| norton.com/setup

    Smith Leo said...

    Thank you for sharing excellent information. Your website is so cool. I am impressed by the details that you have on this website. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for extra articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found simply the info I already searched everywhere and simply could not come across. What a great website. Visit@:- Norton.com/setup » office.com/setup » Telstra support » Plumbers Near Me.

    waston said...

    Microsoft office.com/setup with your product key. Get started: step 1. Go to office.com/setup - Sign in,
    2nd. Enter product key, and 3rd. Install Office 365 or Office 2016. If you are having any Office Setup issue then call us at 24*7 for technical help. we also help with like Excel, PowerPoint, PowerPoint,
    Word, OneNote, ...all type issue ..We are also handing more lots of product .
    California zip@code 90002

    office setup

    malina smith said...

    Really great article, Glad to read the article. It is very informative for us. Thanks for posting.Norton™
    provides industry-leading antivirus and security software
    for your PC, Mca, and mobile devices Visit @: - McAfee.com/activate | norton.com/setup | McAfee.com/activate

    Maria Garcia said...

    I am very thankfull to you for sharing this fantastic article , I appereciate your work .

    mcafee.com/activate , mcafee.com/activate , mcafee.com/activate

    Mike Jones said...

    It read your article every thing is clear , Thanks for sharing.

    office.com/setup , mcafee.com/activate

    smithzack792 said...

    office.com/setup Activate Your Product With Us Microsoft Office product comes with a range of professional document and applications, and services. This wide range includes many of the familiar and popular programs like Word, Excel, PowerPoint.

    Visit mcafee.com/activate, log in to your McAfee account, choose your desired product and enter your product key to deploy McAfee activate online security.

    Norton.com/setup Install Norton antivirus on your PC. - Visit www.norton.com/setup. Login, enter your Norton setup key and Install. For any issues, contact us our Norton Support number.

    mcafee.com/activate- Get started with your McAfee antivirus by activating it with a valid 25-character McAfee license keycode.

    Post a Comment