The Kentucky Derby BCS
The Bowl
Championship Series (BCS) was implemented in 1998 as a means of getting the
best college football teams in the country to compete against each other in
designated BCS bowl games, including a national championship contest.
Growing out
of discontent with the former system that often saw top-ranked teams playing
inferior opponents in bowl games solely due to conference alliances, the BCS
was supposed to put an end to all the postseason bickering over which team was
best.
It has
failed miserably and, in fact, is currently
under review by the various conference commissioners, who are — once again —
seeking a better method.
Hence, it was
with a fair amount of trepidation that I perused the new Kentucky Derby entrant
selection method put forth by Churchill Downs Inc. (NASDAQ: CHDN) today (Thursday,
June 14).
Now, in the interest
of full disclosure, it should be noted that Churchill Downs owns TwinSpires,
which owns the blog site I am writing for. That said, racing is made up of
different opinions, so I’m sure the powers-that-be won’t mind me expressing
mine… although the guy in the dark suit and sunglasses who’s been peering over
my shoulder for the last half-hour has me feeling a little nonplused.
Anyway, as
many of you know, the current system, which considers only graded stakes
earnings to determine the pecking order of the top 20 three-year-olds eligible
to compete in the Run for the Roses, has long been under fire.
Critics
contend that certain races exert undue influence on the process and that
juvenile races, in particular, are given far too much weight.
Thus, the new
point system below:
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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According to
a Churchill Downs press release, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby will feature
36 stakes races overall and include 17 marquee events for 3-year-old
Thoroughbreds that comprise a compact, 10-week run-up to the first Saturday in
May to be known as the ‘Kentucky Derby Championship Series’.”
“Our primary
driving motive is to create new fans for horse racing,” explained CDI Chairman
and Chief Executive Officer Bob Evans. “We’re implementing a more fan-friendly,
cohesive and simplified system that should create compelling drama and appeal
to a wider customer base. Fans, as well as the owners and trainers of the
horses, will know exactly which races are included and what races matter the
most based on a sliding scale of points.
“Additionally,
the new system, which gives us greater stability, represents historical
relevancy and helps to ensure our longstanding mission of assembling the finest
group of 3-year-olds in the starting gate for a race at the classic distance of
1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in May. We want to maximize the quality of the
Derby field and protect the integrity of the race, while respecting the
tradition and relevance of paths taken to the race by previous Kentucky Derby
winners and prominent starters.”
Here’s the
problem with all that: things change… once important preps fade into obscurity,
while others become more significant. In the 1970s, three winners of the Wood
Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes also won the Kentucky Derby — that’s a half a dozen
Derby winners from just those two races in a single decade. In the 30+ years
since then, however, only three horses that won either the Wood or Blue Grass
found similar success in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.
What’s more,
some of the race classifications and point awards don’t make a lot of sense. There
have been just as many winners of the Illinois Derby (0 points to the winner) that
have gone on to wear the roses as there have been winners of the Tampa Bay
Derby (50 points to the winner) and UAE Derby (100 points to the winner). War
Emblem won the Illinois Derby in 2002; Street Sense captured the Tampa Bay
Derby in 2007; and no Derby winner has ever won — or even competed — in the UAE
Derby.
Still, it
will be interesting to see if more racing fans are engaged and/or find the
system fairer than before. As for me, I’m siding with Billy Joel on this one.
Banner Belmont
For a dying
sport, horseracing sure has a lot of life left in it. Despite the scratch of
Triple Crown hopeful I’ll Have Another on the eve of what many hoped would be
his finest hour, 85,811 people — the sixth-largest crowd in New York racing
history (yes, that includes Saratoga) — showed up at Belmont Park to watch
Union Rags redeem himself in a thrilling edition of the Belmont Stakes.
The Michael
Matz trainee bested Paynter in a prolonged — as in 26.03-seconds-for-the-final-quarter-mile
prolonged — stretch drive and captured the Test of Champions by a neck,
returning $7.50 to win.
“We needed
every bit of the mile and a half,” Matz said, referring to the distance of the
Belmont Stakes.
Indeed. And
had Paynter not drifted out, Union Rags, who snuck through on the rail his
rival had vacated, might have needed even more than 12 furlongs to get the job
done.
“[Paynter]
ran his guts out,” noted Ahmed Zayat, owner of the Belmont runner-up as well as
Derby and Preakness bridesmaid Bodemeister. “I'm very disappointed we opened
the rail for [Union Rags].”
Paynter’s
jockey Mike Smith was disappointed too — in himself.
“My horse
ran terrific,” Smith said. “I just blame myself for the end there. Otherwise I
thought I rode great.”
Personally,
although Paynter was my primary win contender in the Belmont Stakes, I don’t
blame Smith for losing the race: from a tactical standpoint, he did everything
right. Paynter got the easy lead I’d hoped for (-3 ESR) and he battled down the
stretch determinedly (-3 LSR).
He just got
beat.
Still, it
was a great race and an even greater day for the sport, which showed that rumors
of its impending death are greatly exaggerated.
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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The Early Bird Wins the Race
On my latest
podcast, I discussed the potency of early speed… well, actually, I was going
to discuss the potency of early speed, but I ran out of time. So, operating under the belief that a picture is
worth a thousand words, I’ve decided to present a real, live example instead:
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(Click on image to enlarge)
|
Running in
the second race at Prairie Meadows on Friday, June 15, Moma Loca is the kind of
horse I love. She’s got great early speed, had a horrendous trip last time and
is dropping significantly in class — from a N1X allowance affair into a $12,500
claiming event for non-winners of two races lifetime. I think she stands a
great shot of leading from flag fall to finish.
My Play: WIN
on 2 at even (1-1) odds or greater.
Win Factor Report for Churchill Downs
My Win
Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for Saturday’s races at Churchill
Downs, which include the Grade II Fleur de Lis and the Grade I Stephen Foster, is
now available for purchase at Brisnet.com.
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