Showing posts with label #Belmont. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Belmont. Show all posts

  • The Triple Crown Ain't Broke

    POSTED Jun 11, 2014 By Derek Simon
    On Saturday, June 7, 2014 at 6:55 PM Eastern Time, California Chrome stood at the cusp of greatness — 1 ½ miles away from Triple Crown glory. Two and a half minutes later, he was just another in a long line of horses to fail in the Belmont Stakes after triumphing in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

    2014 Belmont Stakes 


    And, according to California Chrome’s co-owner Steve Coburn, the Belmont result was a travesty.

    “This is his third very big race,” Coburn said of California Chrome immediately after the Test of Champions. “These other horses they always sit ‘em out. They sit ‘em out and try to upset the apple cart.

    “I'm 61 years old and I’ll never see in my lifetime … another Triple Crown winner because the way they do this. It's not fair to these horses that have been in the game since day one. I look at it this way: if you can’t make enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, you can’t run in the other two races.

    “… It's all or nothing,” Coburn went on. “It's all or nothing. Because this is not fair to these horses that have been running their guts out for these people and for the people that believe in them… this is a coward's way out in my opinion. This is a coward's way out.”

    Coburn has since apologized for his post-race tirade… and for a subsequent tirade on the “Today” show the following morning. Sadly, however, the substance of his comments appear to be drawing quite a bit of consideration from racing fans and non-fans alike — apparently, nothing creates a consensus quite like whining and moaning about the “unfairness” of it all.

    So, I’m writing today to set the record straight: the Triple Crown is not an event, it is an accomplishment.

    Consider: When Sir Barton won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1919, it wasn’t even called the Triple Crown. That term wasn’t widely used — in American racing, at least — until Charles Hatton of the Daily Racing Form popularized it in the 1930s.

    What’s more, when Gallant Fox captured the Crown in 1930, the Preakness preceded the Derby and, for many years, all three races were separated by less than 30 days (versus the five weeks of today). How cowardly were the “fresh” horses in those years?

    The fact is “winning” the American Racing Triple Crown is no different than “winning” the Triple Crown in Major League Baseball (bestowed upon the player with the highest batting average, most home runs and most runs batted in during the season). It is no different than “winning” the Grand Slam of tennis (Australian Open,  French Open, Wimbledon and US Open), which, by the way, has been accomplished exactly three times in men’s singles since 1938 — twice by the same guy (Rod Laver).

    OK, Derek, I hear some of you protesting, but you’re missing the point: horse racing has changed. Thoroughbreds are being bred for speed these days and simply aren’t as durable as in year’s past.

    Alright, then what are the English breeding for, sluggishness? Because there hasn’t been an English Triple Crown (2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby and St. Leger Stakes) winner since Nijinsky in 1970 — and he was the first  English Triple champ since Bahram in 1935.

    Dennis Rodman
    Furthermore, all sports change. In a previous column, I noted that of the 50 Major League Baseball pitchers with the most career complete games, only five were born after 1900. Among the NBA rebounding leaders who maintained a career average of more than 13 caroms per game, only Dennis Rodman played post-1983. (As an interesting side note, Rodman also averaged 2.7 different shades of hair and lipstick per game during his career as well.)

    Likewise, among the 30 NFL receivers to average 18+ yards per reception during their careers, only Flipper Anderson played predominantly in the 1990s or later.

    I won’t get into the reasons for this as they’re not germane to this discussion, but trust me when I say we will see the 12th Triple Crown winner before we will witness the 29th .400 hitter in Major League Baseball.

    The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes are independent events, all boasting a purse of $1 million or more and all worth winning on their own merit. The list of Preakness and/or Belmont winners that didn’t capture the Triple Crown is legendary: Colin, Man o’ War, Native Dancer, Bold Ruler, Northern Dancer, Damascus, Needles, Nashua, Conquistador Cielo, Spectacular Bid and Sunday Silence… just to name a few.

    Rather than tinker with the Triple Crown format to get more champions, which would represent the ultimate sports asterisk, let’s just salute those great horses that accomplished it… and appreciate those who tried and failed.

  • Best Belmont Stakes in History

    POSTED May 31, 2014 By Derek Simon
    With California Chrome standing on the precipice of equine greatness — a win in the Belmont Stakes would make him just the 12th Triple Crown winner in history — social media has been all atwitter (see what I did there?) about the Test of Champions.

    In recent days, I’ve seen videos of Secretariat’s 31-length romp in 1973 (never gets old), Risen Star’s runaway win in 1988 and photos of other past champs, including Citation (1948) and Man o’ War (1920).

    But it was when a friend of mine asked me about the pace figures of 2005 victor Afleet Alex that my curiosity was truly piqued.

    I wondered: What were the best performances of all time, from a pace perspective, in the Belmont Stakes?

    I say from a “pace perspective,” because pace is something I believe I can assess fairly accurately. The various speed figure services — Beyer, Brisnet, “The Sheets” and Thoro-Graph — were simply not around in days of yore, but fractional times have been available since 1921, at least for the Belmont. And my pace figures (speed rations) are relative measurements of energy disbursement and, thus, the perfect analytical tool for a challenge of this type.

    Hence, I scoured the result charts and looked for the best overall pace performances among Belmont champions. I did this by comparing each winner’s early speed ration (ESR) to its late speed ration (LSR). Simply put, I looked for the greatest Pace Profile, which describes this ESR/LSR relationship numerically. (The higher the Pace Profile, the better the overall performance; the lower the Pace Profile, the worse the overall performance.)


    The results were somewhat surprising:

     

    For more information on my speed rations, visit:

    * http://helloracefans.com/handicapping/pace/speed-rations/
    * http://youbetblog.wordpress.com/2010/01/12/derek-simons-speed-rations-explained/

  • Super Saturday

    POSTED Sep 28, 2013 By Derek Simon

    It’s “Super Saturday,” a day when numerous Breeders’ Cup (yes, it’s that time of year already) preps take place. Below is a look at some of the action from Belmont Park:

    5th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 1-1/8 miles (dirt).

    Let me start by noting that the Beldame is an invitational race and, given the field, I have to assume that my invitation to run was lost in the mail. Outside of the two marquee names – Royal Delta and Princess of Sylmar — the remaining contenders have a 14-for-75 record between them. Even worse, three of the four are exiting horrendous preps.

    Using my Key Race Ratings (the higher the number, the better), here are the last-race figures for each of the Beldame entrants:

    1-Roman Invader (0.9 in a restricted stakes)
    2-Princess of Sylmar (5.0 in the Grade I Alabama)
    3-And Why Not (2.0 in a restricted stakes)
    4-Royal Delta (2.5 in the Grade I Personal Ensign)
    5-Centring (2.5 in the Grade I Personal Ensign)
    6-Lady Cohiba (1.0 in an ungraded stakes race)

    Now, it’s tough enough to jump up in class and beat the likes of a Princess Sylmar or Royal Delta, but to do so after having faced the equine version of pro wrestling “jobbers” last time…

    To me, this race comes down to two things: 1) pace and 2) current form.

    On the pace front, I have a sneaking suspicion that Roman Invader might grab the early lead. She’s on the rail with a good “gate jockey” aboard — Junior Alvarado (21 percent win rate with “E/P” types according to Brisnet.com) — and her -6 last-race early speed ration (ESR) is on par with Royal Delta’s recent numbers. Lady Cohiba, the other early runner, is stuck outside and doesn’t always show speed.

    As a result, I think the pace will be honest at the very least.

    In terms of current form, I give Princess of Sylmar a slight edge. As I pointed out on my latest podcast, at this point in their respective careers, the 3.5-year-old daughter of Majestic Warrior actually has slightly more upside than the 5.6-year-old Royal Delta does, based on a study of age and performance conducted by college professor and horse owner Marshall Gramm. The fact that the youngster is getting three pounds from her elder rival is just icing on the cake.

    To me, betting the Beldame is all about price. Below are my fair odds and some brief — very brief — comments:

    1-Roman Invader (15-1): The only horse I give a shot to upset the favorites if she gets the early lead.
    2-Princess of Sylmar (9-5): She’s getting all the buzz, but might, indeed, be the value play.
    3-And Why Not (50-1): Because she’s not very good. Question answered.
    4-Royal Delta (1-1): Clearly the one to beat, but she’s not invulnerable.
    5-Centring (20-1): Can pick up the stragglers late.
    6-Lady Cohiba (15-1): Reasonably talented, but will need to work out a trip. Worth considering at a price.

    6th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 1 mile (dirt).

    This race features the ridiculously-talented Graydar making his first start since annexing the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap on March 30. Below are my fair odds and thoughts:

    1-Easter Gift (3-1 entry): He faced next-to-nothing in the Alydar (1.0 KRR), although his speed and pace figures in that race were OK.
    2-Graydar (6-5): The one to beat, but last time he came off a layoff of this magnitude, he laid an egg.
    3-Praetereo (8-1): He’s improved since being acquired by Drawing Away Stables and looks like an overlay.
    1A-Jackson Bend (3-1 entry): This guy has banked over $1.7 million in his career, but his recent LSRs have been just so-so.
    4-Hym Book (8-1): He dons blinkers for the first time, which might help given the average ESR of -1 in the Kelso… but I doubt it.
    5-Souper Speedy (7-2): Looks like the probable pacesetter and he did earn a zero LSR in the Remsen as a juvenile… interesting.
    6-Brujo de Olleros (10-1): Faced much lesser last time, but won in convincing fashion, earning a late speed ration (LSR) of -4.

    7th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 6 furlongs (dirt).

    1-Forty Tales (6-1): This guy suffers from two fatal flaws: 1) No early speed and 2) No late speed. Yet he’s 7-2 on the morning line. I’ll pass.
    2-Justin Phillip (5-1): He usually runs well, but he’s no win machine. Looks like an underlay to me.
    3-Bahamian Squall (8-1): Solid ESRs in Florida and finished second to Justin Phillip last time despite a troubled trip; could improve.
    4-Strapping Groom (5-1): It’s doubtful this guy will be able to get away with the soft fractions he recorded in the Forego (-3 ESR), but he’s not a need-the-lead type — he has ability.
    5-The Lumber Guy (7-2): Defending champ looks primed to defend his crown. Yeah, his last race stunk, but it was clearly a prep for today. Trainer Michael Hushion is great with horses making their second start off of a layoff and The Lumber Guy’s workouts have been sizzling.
    6-Palace (15-1): Beat my top contender last time and has to be considered, if only for a minor award.
    7-Candyman E (20-1): Ranks fourth in speed, fifth in ESRs and sixth in LSRs. Not impossible, but definitely a reach.
    8-Private Zone (4-1): There’s not a lot of early lick in this race and this dude is dead-game; big shot at what figures to be a fair price. (At press time, 16 of the 26 six-furlong races carded at Belmont Park during the current fall meet had been won in wire-to-wire fashion.)

    8th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/4 miles (inner turf).

    1-Tannery (1/1 entry): Part of an entry with Laughing. This gal is the ying to the latter’s yang — a deep closer with good LSRs.
    2-Mystical Star (6-1): This girl has consistently outrun her breeding and could be tough given the right pace scenario.
    3-Somali Lemonade (8-1): Doesn’t win much — just 3-of-14 lifetime — but she’s usually in the hunt.
    4-Valiant Girl (15-1): Captured an ungraded stakes in mediocre time in her most recent outing; needs to show more.
    5-Kissable (12-1): Favored in the Waya* last time and had tons of trouble… the problem is her previous efforts don’t look good enough, even if one puts an “X” through that race.
    6-Qushchi (4-1): Looks to be improving. The only question is today’s distance, which — believe it or not — is shorter than any of Qushchi’s previous tries.
    1A-Laughing (1-1 entry): She’s the only Group I or Grade I winner in the field and she figures to be on the engine in soft fractions once again — should prove tough to overhaul.
    7-White Rose (20-1): This filly ranks second in overall LSRs and I think she has a reasonable upset chance despite the 20-1 fair odds I assigned her.

    * The Brisnet speed figure for the Waya appears to be an aberration. Handle with care.

    9th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/2 miles (turf).

    3-Nutello (8-1): Bid and faded in his US debut, hinting at an improved performance today.
    1-Imagining (7-2 entry): Blinkers went on last time and they led to a stellar performance in the restricted Idle Rich Stakes.
    2-Big Blue Kitten (8-5 entry): Only out-of-the-money finish came at Ascot. Other than that, this five-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy has been a model of consistency. The one to beat.
    4-Slumber (10-1): Has started exactly two times since Nov. 27, 2011.
    2B-Real Solution (8-5): I’m still not sold on the Arlington Million champ, but he adds to the strength of the Ramsey entry.
    5-Twilight Eclipse (4-1): This guy has a bad habit of hanging in the stretch, but he’s unquestionably talented.
    1A-Boisterous (7-2 entry): He’s been favored in eight of his last 10 starts, including two (of three) Grade I events, which tells you all you need to know about how good this horse is.
    2X-Joes Blazing Aaron (8-5 entry): Son of Graeme Hall could be the key to the race. How can a horse that was just claimed be the key to a Grade I contest, you ask? Well, it’s because the Ken and Sarah Ramsey-owned gelding is likely in this race to do one thing — ensure a decent pace for his more esteemed entry mates. And his latest ESRs — a -7 in a 5 ½-furlong sprint (hey, there’s a good prep for today’s 12-furlong tilt) and a -8 in a 1 1/16-mile affair — lead me to believe Joes Blazing Aaron is up to the task.
    6-King Kressa (10-1): I would like this guy if it weren’t for the presence of the horse I just talked about, Joes Blazing Aaron. Simply put, King Kressa appears to be a need-the-lead type and he will surely face pace pressure today.
    7-Little Mike (12-1): He’s another frontrunner, but one that I think has seen his better days. Needs to be respected based on his past class, but I’d insist on a price if you’re betting on last year’s BC Turf champ to hit the board for the first time in 2013.

    10th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/4 miles (dirt).

    1-Ron the Greek (15-1): Appears to have lost a step, as both his speed figures and LSRs have been mediocre (at best) of late.
    2-Orb (3-1): It’s time for the Kentucky Derby champ to put up or tell his supporters to shut up… and I think he might just do the former. If one takes the (reasonable) view that the son of Malibu Moon was short in the Travers, one is left with an inescapable conclusion: that was a heck of an effort. Not only did Orb earn a 108 Brisnet speed rating in that Grade I affair — the best last-race number in the field — but his -3 LSR is also tops. A potentially slow pace is the only drawback.
    3-Last Gunfighter (8-1): His effort in the Pimlico Special could win this… but his last two tries temper my enthusiasm.
    4-Vitoria Olimpica (20-1): The field he beat in the ungraded Alydar was only slightly stronger than the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense… or offense… or special teams… you get the picture. That said, his speed and pace digits from that race were pretty good — and he’s got the right running style.
    5-Alpha (10-1): After more bad runs than a pair of panty hose in a rose garden (hey, it’s late and I’m scrambling to get this column finished), Alpha annexed the Grade I Woodward in gutty fashion. On the down side, the son of Bernardini was able to draw clear early lead while recording a -1 ESR that day — don’t think he’ll have that luxury today.
    6-Flat Out (6-1): Seven-year-old is ultra-consistent, but he has the look of a major underlay today.
    7-Palace Malice (7-2): His versatility leads me to believe he is among the best three-year-olds in training — if not the best. However, I wonder how much his outstanding effort in the Travers — he stumbled at the start, raced wide and came charging late — took out of him.
    8-Cross Traffic (3-1): Once again, the fact that Todd Pletcher trains the speediest frontrunners in the race (à la the Travers) creates headaches for handicappers. My suspicion is this guy will be sent and Palace Malice will stalk, but who knows? If Cross Traffic does set the pace, how fast he goes early will likely determine the outcome of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Personally, I’m a bit dubious of Cross Traffic’s ability to handle 10 furlongs and would not bet him at odds of less than 7-2.

    FREE Brisnet Past Performances

    In honor of "Super Saturday," I'm teaming with TwinSpires and Brisnet to offer free past performances, featuring my pace figures, for some of the bigger races at Belmont Park and Santa Anita on Sept. 28, 2013. Enjoy!

    Belmont Park (races 5-10)
    Santa Anita Park (races 7-10)