A Tale of Two Horses
In sports, when
a team or individual triumphs in dubious fashion it is known as “winning ugly.”
Although
both are considered strong candidates for Horse of the Year Honors — at least
by some — neither impressed me last weekend.
Let’s start
with Acclamation.
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After
cruising to an easy victory in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap in his
six-year-old debut at Hollywood Park, last year’s top older male made
it seven-for-his-last-seven with a front-running score in the Eddie Read at Del
Mar.
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And therein
lies the problem: Acclamation has won seven straight races (five of them versus
Grade I company) on or near the lead… yet, he’s hardly had to break a sweat in
the early stages to do it.
Over the
past year, the son of Unusual Heat has recorded a string of ridiculously soft early speed rations (see
key below), including a +7 in the 2012 Eddie Read, a +4 in the 2012 Whittingham
and +4 in the 2011 C. L. Hirsch. Worse, he’s beaten a total of just 42 horses in his last ten starts and there is evidence to
suggest that, if pressed for more speed early, Acclamation will fold like Adam
Scott in the British Open.
When he’s
recorded a +1 ESR or lower (faster), the Donald Warren trainee is one-for-four — the one being last year’s Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s all-weather surface,
which typically produces slightly better ESRs than turf.
With
speedsters like Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter and a number of others
waiting in the wings, Acclamation is surely going to have to show more early foot
to compete for another Eclipse Award this year.
Early speed — or, specifically, the lack thereof — is also at the heart of Royal Delta’s problem.
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In my last column I noted that the daughter of Empire Maker “needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.”
In the Delaware Handicap, she did neither.
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Instead, Royal
Delta demonstrated once again that she’s vulnerable in races featuring a strong
pace, as she barely held of Tiz Miz Sue by a neck.
William Mott’s
stable star has now won just two of her last five races (this includes Saturday’s
Delaware Handicap) featuring a -5 ESR pace or less; she’s four-for-five in
races featuring a slower pace.
Again, I
refer to Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter, et al.
Royal Delta
is talented, but she’s going to need to improve greatly to keep the string of female
Horse of the Year winners alive. At this point, I’m betting against it.
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The article provides an insightful analysis of both Acclamation and Royal Delta, showcasing the potential concerns for these horses despite their impressive resumes. While Acclamation has been dominant in his races, his success seems to be based on an unusually slow pace, which could be a significant disadvantage when facing tougher competition.
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