Showing posts with label Acclamation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Acclamation. Show all posts

  • A Tale of Two Horses

    POSTED Jul 26, 2012 By Derek Simon
    In sports, when a team or individual triumphs in dubious fashion it is known as “winning ugly.”

    This past Saturday, Royal Delta and Acclamation could relate.

    Although both are considered strong candidates for Horse of the Year Honors — at least by some — neither impressed me last weekend.

    Let’s start with Acclamation.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    After cruising to an easy victory in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap in his six-year-old debut at Hollywood Park, last year’s top older male made it seven-for-his-last-seven with a front-running score in the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    And therein lies the problem: Acclamation has won seven straight races (five of them versus Grade I company) on or near the lead… yet, he’s hardly had to break a sweat in the early stages to do it.

    Over the past year, the son of Unusual Heat has recorded a string of ridiculously soft early speed rations (see key below), including a +7 in the 2012 Eddie Read, a +4 in the 2012 Whittingham and +4 in the 2011 C. L. Hirsch. Worse, he’s beaten a total of just 42 horses in his last ten starts and there is evidence to suggest that, if pressed for more speed early, Acclamation will fold like Adam Scott in the British Open.

    When he’s recorded a +1 ESR or lower (faster), the Donald Warren trainee is one-for-four — the one being last year’s Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s all-weather surface, which typically produces slightly better ESRs than turf.

    With speedsters like Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter and a number of others waiting in the wings, Acclamation is surely going to have to show more early foot to compete for another Eclipse Award this year.

    Early speed — or, specifically, the lack thereof — is also at the heart of Royal Delta’s problem.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    In my last column I noted that the daughter of Empire Maker “needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.”

    In the Delaware Handicap, she did neither.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Instead, Royal Delta demonstrated once again that she’s vulnerable in races featuring a strong pace, as she barely held of Tiz Miz Sue by a neck.

    William Mott’s stable star has now won just two of her last five races (this includes Saturday’s Delaware Handicap) featuring a -5 ESR pace or less; she’s four-for-five in races featuring a slower pace.

    Again, I refer to Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter, et al.

    Royal Delta is talented, but she’s going to need to improve greatly to keep the string of female Horse of the Year winners alive. At this point, I’m betting against it.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
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  • The ones we've been waiting for

    POSTED Jul 19, 2012 By Unknown
    Del Mar opened yesterday, Saratoga opens tomorrow, and outside the Triple Crown races (especially the Kentucky Derby) and the Breeders' Cup World Championships no events in racing match the anticipation fans have for these premiere meetings.


    The absolute best racing occurs later in both meets, but there is Grade 1 racing on tap from both facilities this Saturday: The CCA Oaks at Saratoga and the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

    Joel Cunningham and I talked last week on Triple Crown Insider about the open nature of the current three-year-old filly division. I can't call Grace Hall the leader at this point without a Grade 1 win, but she is my most likely champion at this stage following her Delaware Oaks romp. Still, the CCA Oaks will certainly have a say regarding the division's leader, especially if either Zo Impressive or In Lingerie add another graded stakes to their resume.

    I went with a longshot, however, in Yara, who already won big this year as a longshot when defeating Grace Hall at Gulfstream Park. Is she the most likely winner of this race? Of course not, I think Disposablepleasure is, but I do think Yara will be completely overlooked relative to her chances, and I'm looking forward to playing her across the board.


    As for the Eddie Read, I'm hoping Acclamation continues to strut his stuff on a Grade 1 stage. He won't be underappreciated in this race, and is a likely underlay given the short field and only one real alternative to beat him, but in the big picture he is an overlooked horse as defending champion older male. Repeating in that category will be a tall order, but an Eddie Read win certain makes him the leading North American turf horse.

    Just like two weeks ago when the Grade 2 Suburban was more interesting than the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, the best race of the weekend is neither of the aforementioned Grade 1 tilts but the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap featuring a rematch between Royal Delta and Awesome Maria. I give the wagering nod to the latter, who already defeated Royal Delta earlier this year and figures to be twice the price.

  • In with the old for once

    POSTED Jan 4, 2012 By Unknown
    Thoroughbred racing takes the New Year phrase, "Out with the old and in with the new" a little too seriously for its own good sometimes.

    A litany of marquee retirements often mark the end of the racing season, but that's not the case this year, as the champions in the older male, older female, three-year-old male, and three-year-old filly divisions are all likely to return to racing this year.

    Should that happen, it would mark the first time since the Eclipse Awards were created in 1971 that all four of those champions raced the following year. I.e., It's never happened. That's mind boggling to me.

    To be sure, the three-year-old male division remains the glamor group, particularly in the late winter and early spring, but having the likes of Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (yeah, I'm calling it for her even if she didn't get my vote) and certain champion three-year-old filly Royal Delta back in training is sure to add some spice to the long march toward the Breeders' Cup.

    The other two divisions of the four I mentioned--older male & three-year-old male--are unresolved, but regardless of who wins (Game On Dude or Acclamation among older males and Animal Kingdom or Caleb's Posse among three-year-old males), they're all coming back!

    But the excitement does not end with the champions. All three classic winners are returning: the aforementioned Animal Kingdom plus Shackleford and Ruler On Ice. The sprint division has its champion Amazombie coming back along with The Factor and Caleb's Posse. And on turf, there's plenty of excitement swirling around Brilliant Speed and Mr. Commons plus the fairer sex has Summer Soiree, Winter Memories, and Star Billing.

    It's often said that racing needs its stars on the track, and I'm often skeptical about whether a few returning horses can move the dial. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, both certain Racing Hall of Fame inductees even before either of them raced in 2010, both returned off Eclipse Award seasons, but without them racing each other there was not much excitement on a national level until the Breeders' Cup, which Rachel Alexandra didn't even make.

    It will be extremely difficult for all of the above horses to avoid each other as well as some other heavies such as Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man, and To Honor And Serve all coming back as well.

    I've already argued for Brilliant Speed over Mr. Commons in a mythical (for now) 1 1/4-mile matchup on turf, but even if that doesn't pan out surely we'll get to see To Honor And Serve, Caleb's Posse, and The Factor all duke it out in the Met Mile, or the Classic winners back for the Stephen Foster, or Havre de Grace against Royal Delta at Saratoga, right?

    And all of these names are just in the U.S. The biggest name of all is Frankel, and he's racing this year, too, and might even do so in the Breeders' Cup! 

  • Awards season: My Eclipse Award ballot

    POSTED Jan 3, 2012 By Unknown
    The Iowa Caucus promises to be far more interesting than my Eclipse Award ballot. Previous Horse of the Year battles would have put the Republication nomination process to shame, but this is a tame year. Better to let the race for leader of the free world to have the spotlight, anyway.
    I won't bother with long drawn out explanations in each category. Some are obvious and the ones that aren't have been reasoned rather well in other forums.
    I made Cape Blanco my Horse of the Year. In a down year by many accounts, I thought he strung together the most impressive resume of Grade 1 races while winning a truly marquee race to boot. Acclamation and Havre de Grace round out my top three for that category, and I really couldn't argue against either winning. It gets dicier for me after that.
    I try to stay consistent in my voting style each year without being obstinate. My tenets are
    • -Winning Grade 1 races matters most
    • -Head to head victories earn extra cache
    • -Related to points 1 & 2: you have to win the race for me to consider it a head to head victory (i.e., "finishing in front of" is not good enough).
    • -Races restricted by age mean less to me than those that aren't (e.g. for female sprinter Ballerina > Test; for male turf Sword Dancer > Secretariat
    • -General special consideration for winning races people most want to win (e.g. classics, Breeders' Cup)
    Horse of the Year
    1. Cape Blanco, 2. Acclamation, 3. Havre de Grace
    Two-year-old male
    1. Hansen, 2. Union Rags, 3. Wrote
    Two-year-old female
    1. My Miss Aurelia, 2. Grace Hall, 3. Stephanie's Kitten
    Three-year-old male
    1. Caleb's Posse, 2. The Factor, 3. Animal Kingdom
    Three-year-old female
    1. Royal Delta, 2. It's Tricky, 3. Plum Pretty 
    Turf male
    1. Cape Blanco, 2. Acclamation, 3. St Nicholas Abbey
    Turf female
    1. Stacelita, 2. Dubawi Heights, 3. Never Retreat
    Older male
    1. Acclamation, 2. Game On Dude, 3. Tizway
    Older female
    1. Havre de Grace, 2. Blind Luck, 3. Ask the Moon
    Female sprinter
    1. Sassy Image, 2. Hilda's Passion, 3. Musical Romance
    Male Sprinter
    1. Amazombie, 2. Caleb's Posse, 3. Regally Ready
    Jockey
    1. Ramon Dominguez, 2. John Velazquez, 3. Javier Castellano
    Trainer
    1. Baffert, 2. Mott, 3. O'Brien
    Breeder
    1. Ramsey, 2. Team Valor, 3. Brylynn Farm
    Owner
    1. Team Valor, 2. Ramsey, 3. WinStar
    Abstensions: apprentice jockey, steeplechase

    For more year-end award goodness, check out Kellie Reilly's Turf Awards over at Brisnet.com's The Handicapper's Edge.