Showing posts with label Eclipse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eclipse. Show all posts

  • Weekend roundup: Horse of the Year down to Game On Dude, Princess of Sylmar

    POSTED Oct 7, 2013 By Unknown
    Besides Silver Max, the biggest winners from Wise Dan's loss in the Shadwell Turf Mile (run at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack) were Game On Dude and Princess of Sylmar, who are now the last two standing in a Horse of the Year debate that lost last year's winner of that award when he had no excuse in the aforementioned race.

     Yes, it was moved off the turf, and he covered more ground than the winner, but if I were willing to count a win in the race in Wise Dan's favor, then I have to count a loss against him--at least as far as Horse of the Year goes; Wise Dan is still in the turf male driver's seat.

     A win would have given Wise Dan Grade 1 wins on two surfaces (turf and Polytrack) and three distances (1, 1 1/16, and 1 1/8 miles) this year. I'm still not sure that would have been enough to usurp Game On Dude if that one wins the Classic, but would have provided more food for thought. Now it's all Game On Dude with a win.

     *I* will not be voting this way, but my feel for the electorate tells me that Game On Dude wins Horse of the Year with a Classic win and Princess of Sylmar gets it if he loses.

     For that reason, I see no reason for Princess of Sylmar to run again this year--especially if she's running as a four-year-old. Yeah, Beholder could make things interesting with a win in the Distaff, but Princess of Sylmar had the better complete season. The Classic makes some sense if you want to win *my* vote, but since I don't think that will be required why bother?

     While I think Princess of Sylmar has earned champion three-year-old filly and have no problem with her being done for the year in doing so, I do have an issue with the idea that Game On Dude needs to win the Breeders' Cup or Princess of Sylmar gets it because that implies that Princess of Sylmar has had the better season to date. Yes, the Grade 1 score is 4-3, but Game On Dude's hat trick is in open races. Does anyone really think Game On Dude wouldn't have won the Beldame if he had been in there?

     But Princess of Sylmar did win it, beating two-time Eclipse Award winner Royal Delta in the process and kicking off a different kind of hat trick for this year's three-year-old fillies. There are three Grade 1 prep races for the Breeders' Cup Distaff, and the sophomores bested their elders in all three of them: Princess of Sylmar in the Beldame, Beholder in the Zenyatta, and Emollient in the Spinster. I'd be hard-pressed to think of a three-year-old male that could have won any of those races.

     This type of success is not limited to the States, either, as it was the three-year-old filly Treve who beat males and elders in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday at Longchamp. She is the third of that age and sex to do so in the past six years, which to me debunks the thought that "weight doesn't matter" considering three-year-old fillies receive 11 pounds from older males.

     To WEIGH in on which three-year-old filly has impressed you most, take the Brisnet.com The Handicapper's Edge poll. I chose Princess of Sylmar.

     As for the two-year-olds, I'll let this week's Bullet Train Breeders' Cup Platform presented by Brisnet.com address those races.

  • The battle for three-year-old supremacy

    POSTED Aug 22, 2013 By Unknown
    The winner of this year's Travers Stakes has a good chance to become the first champion three-year-old male to win the midsummer classic since Summer Bird in 2009 and just the second in the past seven years, third in the past 12, and fourth in the past 18.

     Of course, it could be like 2007 when Street Sense became just the first Kentucky Derby winner to take the Travers since Thunder Gulch in 1995, but Street Sense ended up more like Sea Hero, who despite completing the rare Derby-Travers double, failed to earn the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male. Street Sense lost out to Curlin, who completed his season with a Jockey Club Gold Cup-Breeders' Cup Classic double, and Sea Hero somehow lost out to the late Prairie Bayou.

     One of those two scenarios is very likely to play out the remainder of the year. If one of the Grade 1 winners entered in this year's Travers (Orb, Palace Malice, and Verrazano) were to win the race, then he would unquestionably be the leader in the three-year-old division, and it would take a Curlin-like run at the end of the year for either of the also rans to catch up.

     Here's how I see the standings going into the race:
    1. Orb--Sure, his Triple Crown season following his sloppy Kentucky Derby win was less than stellar, but he did earn blacktype in the Belmont Stakes, which makes him just the second horse in the past nine years to do so (Mine That Bird was the other). No question he lost ground in the standings with his Preakness dud and non-threatening Belmont run, but two Grade 1 wins--including the biggest of all with the Derby--has him as head of the class. A Travers win or a loss by Verrazano & Palace Malice keeps him here.

     2. Palace Malice--I typically value Grade 1 wins over anything, but classic wins along with select Breeders' Cup races are essentially super Grade 1s in an era of too graded races to begin with. That's a long-winded way of saying Palace Malice's Belmont Stakes win means more to me than Verrazano's Wood and Haskell combined. Palace Malice also finished second in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and looked good in the Jim Dandy. A Travers win unquestionably moves him to the head of the class.

     3. Verrazano--Hard to imagine a colt with this much talent is third on any list, and if Oxbow were still around he might even be fourth, but the top spot is easily within reach, as a Travers win would make Verrazano this year's only three-time Grade 1 winner in his division (a distinction Princess of Sylmar has already achieved in her division). A Travers win would also answer the pesky 1 1/4 miles question and probably set him up as the favorite not only for the Breeders' Cup Classic but also Horse of the Year and one heck of an exciting stallion prospect.

     4. The others--A Travers win would get any of the other horses into the conversation as a top three-year-old, but other wins would be necessary to usurp the classic winners from the top spot.

     From a Horse of the Year perspective, a Breeders' Cup Classic win seems almost a must considering who is pointing for that race and Wise Dan has a big shot at 5 Grade 1 wins by the end of the year (albeit at 1-1 1/8 miles on the turf).

     In the video below, Triple Crown Insider takes a look at the Travers and all its implications, and Joel Cunningham and I agree on who will win the race.

  • A Tale of Two Horses

    POSTED Jul 26, 2012 By Derek Simon
    In sports, when a team or individual triumphs in dubious fashion it is known as “winning ugly.”

    This past Saturday, Royal Delta and Acclamation could relate.

    Although both are considered strong candidates for Horse of the Year Honors — at least by some — neither impressed me last weekend.

    Let’s start with Acclamation.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    After cruising to an easy victory in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap in his six-year-old debut at Hollywood Park, last year’s top older male made it seven-for-his-last-seven with a front-running score in the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    And therein lies the problem: Acclamation has won seven straight races (five of them versus Grade I company) on or near the lead… yet, he’s hardly had to break a sweat in the early stages to do it.

    Over the past year, the son of Unusual Heat has recorded a string of ridiculously soft early speed rations (see key below), including a +7 in the 2012 Eddie Read, a +4 in the 2012 Whittingham and +4 in the 2011 C. L. Hirsch. Worse, he’s beaten a total of just 42 horses in his last ten starts and there is evidence to suggest that, if pressed for more speed early, Acclamation will fold like Adam Scott in the British Open.

    When he’s recorded a +1 ESR or lower (faster), the Donald Warren trainee is one-for-four — the one being last year’s Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s all-weather surface, which typically produces slightly better ESRs than turf.

    With speedsters like Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter and a number of others waiting in the wings, Acclamation is surely going to have to show more early foot to compete for another Eclipse Award this year.

    Early speed — or, specifically, the lack thereof — is also at the heart of Royal Delta’s problem.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    In my last column I noted that the daughter of Empire Maker “needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.”

    In the Delaware Handicap, she did neither.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Instead, Royal Delta demonstrated once again that she’s vulnerable in races featuring a strong pace, as she barely held of Tiz Miz Sue by a neck.

    William Mott’s stable star has now won just two of her last five races (this includes Saturday’s Delaware Handicap) featuring a -5 ESR pace or less; she’s four-for-five in races featuring a slower pace.

    Again, I refer to Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter, et al.

    Royal Delta is talented, but she’s going to need to improve greatly to keep the string of female Horse of the Year winners alive. At this point, I’m betting against it.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
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