Showing posts with label 2012 Breeders' Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Breeders' Cup. Show all posts

  • 2012 Breeders' Cup: What We Learned

    POSTED Nov 9, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Wise Dan (courtesy of Bloodhorse)
    For months, the anticipation builds. Every impressive winner instantly becomes a Breeders’ Cup candidate; every race becomes a prep for the big event.

    Then, faster than one can peruse the “skills” section of Kim Kardashian’s resume, the Breeders’ Cup is over.

    And that is when the real fun begins. That is when the handwringing starts and the whining over terrible trips continues; when both the gloating and the grousing match the resonance frequency of insanity; when I offer my final observations of Breeders’ Cup 2012. 

    So let's get to it...

    JUVENILE SPRINT

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    Hightail – D. Wayne Lukas’ charge was a maiden entering the Juvenile Sprint and a Breeders’ Cup winner after it. True, the Brisnet speed figure (97) was nothing to get the pulse racing, but the -4 late speed ration (LSR) that the son of Mineshaft was the best such dirt number over the course of the entire BC weekend.

    Merit Man – Although he lost at odds of 1-2, Merit Man gave me the impression that, despite his breeding, he might actually enjoy more ground, as he earned a positive pace profile in the Juvenile Sprint.

    JUVENILE FILLIES

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    Beholder – Not sure Beholder’s reputation was enhanced by her 1-length score in the Juvenile Fillies, but she sure didn’t harm it any. Not only did the daughter of Henny Hughes show she could motor early (-11 ESR), she also demonstrated she could finish OK (-10 LSR).

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    Executiveprivilege – This gal had every chance to run down the winner and simply couldn’t do it. She deserves a shot to redeem herself, of course, but I doubt redemption was on the docket when she went to post as the 3-2 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies.

    Dreaming of Julia – Her LSRs have been poor in general and this race (-15) was no exception. On the plus side, the Todd Pletcher trainee did come from further off the pace than usual.

    Kauai Katie – Ran reasonably fast early (-9) ESR, but backed up like a single toilet at a chili cook-off (-17 LSR).

    FILLY & MARE TURF

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    Zagora – Mare was 1-for-5 in Grade I company prior to annexing the Filly & Mare Turf, but appears to be getting better with age. She recorded a 98 Brisnet speed figure and +4 LSR in her BC win.

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    Nahrain – Second in the 2011 edition of this race, Nahrain never ran a step this year, finishing 10th, beaten by 6 ½ lengths.

    LADIES CLASSIC

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    Mike Smith – Contrary to popular opinion, I think Smith’s decision to put Royal Delta on the lead was brilliant.

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    Grace Hall – Although I think her nine-length defeat can be explained (she just regressed), Grace Hall certainly looked like the equine version of Mr. Hyde in the Ladies Classic.

    Awesome Feather – From undefeated to awful in one race; reminiscent of Royal Delta in the Suncoast Stakes last year.

    FILLY & MARE SPRINT

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    The entire field outside of Groupie Doll – I know I’ll probably get some flak for saying this, but, impressive as she’s been, I’m just not convinced that Groupie Doll has been beating much. In the Filly & Mare Sprint every horse excluding the winner recorded a “poor” LSR (-15 or less), yet the race ESR (pace) was just a -5. Turbulent Descent looks like her best days are behind her; Switch is a shell of her former self…

    To me, the F&M Sprint was simply a case of a good horse beating a bunch of bad horses.

    DIRT MILE

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    Tapizar – If Grace Hall was this year’s Mr. Hyde, this guy was Dr. Jekyll. After getting smoked in the Grade II Kelso — the worst defeat of his career in terms of beaten lengths (20 ¾) — Tapizar rebounded like Dennis Rodman in the Dirt Mile, scoring by 2 ¼ lengths and recording an excellent -4 LSR.

    Rail Trip – There’s life in those seven-year-old legs after all.

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    Fed Biz – I liked this guy and he ran like the contents of a litter box.

    JUVENILE

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    Shanghai Bobby – Son of Harlan’s Holiday made Hansen’s victory in 2011 look like Secretariat’s Belmont. Yeah, “Bobby” went (very) fast early (-16 ESR), but he finished like Detroit Tigers. Can he win the Derby in 2013? Maybe the Pennsylvania Derby, like his daddy, but that one in Kentucky could be a bit of a problem unless he improves drastically over the winter.

    Power Broker – The -22 LSR he earned in this race says it all.

    TURF

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    Little Mike – He can rate going a distance of ground. Who knew?

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    Dullahan – Ran true to his name, finishing 9th with a -6 LSR.

    SPRINT

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    Trinniberg – One of the few big-priced winners that I really liked. This son of Teufelsberg showed he could rate off the pace — something he was unable to do earlier in the year — in his final prep at Parx and did so again in the Sprint, allowing Sum of the Parts to lead after a quarter-mile in :21-2/5. If he stays in training I expect he’ll have a say in the 2013 BC Sprint as well.

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    Amazombie – Ran like one. The 7-2 favorite after winning last year’s Sprint, Amazombie was never a factor last weekend.

    MILE

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    Wise Dan – Showed why many believe he should be Horse of the Year. Facing a field that included top Euro imports Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud, Wise Dan pulled away with ease to win by 1 ½ lengths at the wire.

    Animal Kingdom – Ran much better than I expected and covered nine furlongs more than Wise Dan did according to Trakus (actually, I’m not sure if it was that much more, but to hear some folks tell it, it was close). Look, I don’t think the ground that Animal Kingdom lost was the decisive factor in last Saturday’s Mile, but it certainly didn’t help his chances.

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    Moonlight Cloud – Didn’t exactly flatter Black Caviar, did she?

    CLASSIC

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    Fort Larned – This fella is much better than he’s given credit for. Not only was the 114 Brisnet speed figure he earned in the Classic the best among all BC winners, his -5 LSR was very good as well.

    Mucho Macho Man – Raced off of a layoff and performed admirably, finishing second, 6 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher Flat Out.

    Chantal Sutherland – If you thought Sutherland’s ride on Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic was bad, it looked like pure genius next to Rafael Bejarano’s effort on that same horse in the BC Classic — at least if you listened to Bob Baffert after the race.

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    Game On Dude – The “Dude” may have abided, but he certainly didn’t run last weekend. After a slight bobble at the start, Bob Baffert’s stable star was the very definition of a non-factor in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup finale.

    To Honor And Serve – Neither honored nor served bettors anything other than massive disappointment in the Classic.

    Alpha – I can’t wait to see this horse next year… he should be finishing the Classic by February 2nd if my calculations are correct.


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    Weekend Win Factor Report 'Weak Favorites'
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  • BC Betting Bits

    POSTED Oct 26, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Blame Edges Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic
    Last week, I talked about the misguided notion that big wins lead to big Breeders’ Cup profits — they don’t — and, this week, I want to offer some other tantalizing tidbits about America’s premier showcase for thoroughbred racehorses.

    I’ll start with recent form.

    As I pointed out in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide, a decent last race is essential to BC success. How essential? Since 1999, only two horses — Daylami (1999 Turf) and Midnight Lute (2008 Sprint) — have won a Breeders’ Cup race with a Win Factor Report “Form Rating” of less than 20 percent.

    Horses – 97
    Winners (rate) – 2 (2.1%)
    Return (ROI) – $12.60 (-93.51%)  

    The Win Factor Report is a computerized fair odds line that I created, which will be available to Brisnet.com users when the final entries are known. However, it’s worth noting that, as of this writing, there were 41 potential BC entries with a Form Rating south of 20 percent — including several likely favorites or near-favorites.


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    Let’s move on to what I will call the “home team advantage.”

    It is little secret that, in most professional sports, the home team has a statistical advantage. In fact, a 2007 study conducted by Oliver Entine and     Dylan Small of the Department of Statistics at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, found that, in the NBA, home teams won nearly 61 percent of the time. In the NFL, the rate was 58 percent; in the NHL, 55 percent; and in Major League Baseball, 53 percent.

    Hence, the logical question: Does this home team advantage extend to thoroughbreds running over their "home track" in the Breeders’ Cup?

    The answer, it seems, is “yes.”

    In the past 13 years, horses that had their final prep at the track hosting the Breeders’ Cup event they were entered in have accumulated the following statistics:

    Horses – 179
    Winners (rate) – 19 (10.6%)*
    Return (ROI) – $457.50 (+27.79%)  

    Now, compare that to horses that last raced at a different track:

    Horses – 1,352
    Winners (rate) – 114 (8.4%)*
    Return (ROI) – $2,708.5 (+0.17%)  

    *There were 133 winners in 132 total races due to a dead-heat in the 2003 Turf.

    These latter numbers get even worse if the shipper’s last workout was also at a different venue:

    Horses – 895
    Winners (rate) – 78 (8.7%)
    Return (ROI) – $1,719.30 (-3.95%)  

    Given that horses are creatures of habit, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by opining that animals that recently handled conditions similar to those they will encounter at Santa Anita on Nov. 2-3 will probably (as a whole) perform better than those that did not.

    Toward this end, history teaches us that, in Breeders’ Cup competition, steeds that faced large fields last time — since 1999, the average BC field has consisted of 11.8 runners — do much better than those that faced just a handful of rivals, as the following statistics show:

    LAST RACE FIELD OF FIVE HORSES OR LESS

    Horses – 161
    Winners (rate) – 12 (7.5%)
    Return (ROI) – $136.40 (-57.64%)  

    LAST RACE FIELD OF 10 HORSES OR MORE

    Horses – 476
    Winners (rate) – 39 (8.2%)
    Return (ROI) – $995.30 (+4.55%)  

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    10/27/12 Woodbine Harness