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  • Best Belmont Stakes in History

    POSTED May 31, 2014 By Derek Simon
    With California Chrome standing on the precipice of equine greatness — a win in the Belmont Stakes would make him just the 12th Triple Crown winner in history — social media has been all atwitter (see what I did there?) about the Test of Champions.

    In recent days, I’ve seen videos of Secretariat’s 31-length romp in 1973 (never gets old), Risen Star’s runaway win in 1988 and photos of other past champs, including Citation (1948) and Man o’ War (1920).

    But it was when a friend of mine asked me about the pace figures of 2005 victor Afleet Alex that my curiosity was truly piqued.

    I wondered: What were the best performances of all time, from a pace perspective, in the Belmont Stakes?

    I say from a “pace perspective,” because pace is something I believe I can assess fairly accurately. The various speed figure services — Beyer, Brisnet, “The Sheets” and Thoro-Graph — were simply not around in days of yore, but fractional times have been available since 1921, at least for the Belmont. And my pace figures (speed rations) are relative measurements of energy disbursement and, thus, the perfect analytical tool for a challenge of this type.

    Hence, I scoured the result charts and looked for the best overall pace performances among Belmont champions. I did this by comparing each winner’s early speed ration (ESR) to its late speed ration (LSR). Simply put, I looked for the greatest Pace Profile, which describes this ESR/LSR relationship numerically. (The higher the Pace Profile, the better the overall performance; the lower the Pace Profile, the worse the overall performance.)


    The results were somewhat surprising:

     

    For more information on my speed rations, visit:

    * http://helloracefans.com/handicapping/pace/speed-rations/
    * http://youbetblog.wordpress.com/2010/01/12/derek-simons-speed-rations-explained/
    • #Belmont
    • Belmont Stakes
    • Belmont Stakes video
    • Derek Simon
    • ESR
    • great horses
    • LSR
    • pace handicapping
    • Test of Champions
    • Triple Crown
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    6f in 1:12 on a wet track vs an unbelievable 1:09 and change for Secretariat and you have this race rated #1 and four spots under Big Red? Come on Derek

    June 1, 2014 at 9:52 AM
    Derek Simon said...

    This is a pace comparison only, not a speed comparison. However, using raw times is a poor means of comparison in any case.

    What's more, while I take NOTHING away from Secretariat's brilliant performance, the Belmont main track was blazing fast in 1973. In fact, in the race immediately before the 1973 Belmont, Forego, who was a three-year-old then and not the stakes star of years to come, came within 1/5-second of a track record at 1-1/16 miles.

    June 1, 2014 at 5:11 PM
    Anonymous said...

    Is your pace comparison not based on times?

    June 1, 2014 at 5:52 PM
    Derek Simon said...

    Not in a traditional sense. My speed rations are a measurement of energy disbursement.

    The links above explain what they measure -- and what they don't. I also did a video many moons ago:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwGwoCB_pE0

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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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