Breaking Down the Brisnet Prime Power Rating
It’s no
secret that, for many moons now, I have been trying to beat the game with
mechanical methods of play. In large part, because I simply don’t have time to
handicap like I did 5-6 years ago… nor do I enjoy the process like I used to.
It is also
no secret that I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve found some great systems and angles — ones that,
through testing, I am confident will continue to offer solid ROIs for months
and years to come. But, alas, they all suffer from “Tony Romo Disease” — they don’t
show up often enough to produce consistent, meaningful returns.
Still, I
love the idea of a mechanical method that can, at the very least, help guide
one’s wagering decisions. So, with that in mind, I decided to slice and dice
the Brisnet Prime Power Rating and see if I could find any helpful wagering angles.
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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First,
using a database of random races run from July 2012 to February 2013 at racetracks
across the country, I examined the horse with the top (highest) Prime Power
rating in the field. (In the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, the
Prime Power rating and field rank is found right before the horse’s lifetime
record — see California Chrome above.)
Number:
11,953
Winners:
3,972
Win Rate:
33.2%
$2 Return: $1.75
ROI: -15.09%
IV: 2.48
Not bad. These numbers are similar to what one would expect
from the post-time favorite, which gives us a good starting point. Now let’s
see what happens when the top Prime Power horse goes to post as a morning-line
overlay (odds greater than or equal to the morning line) or a morning-line
underlay (odds less than the morning line):
OVERLAYS
Number: 2,186
Winners: 428
Win Rate: 19.6%
$2 Return: $1.64
ROI: -17.81%
IV: 1.49
UNDERLAYS
Number: 9,767
Winners: 3,544
Win Rate: 36.3%
$2 Return: $1.71
ROI: -14.48%
IV: 2.70
While
these numbers may surprise some readers, who assume that higher prices
naturally mean higher profits, they are, I have found, very indicative of what
happens when one looks for overlay opportunities with “obvious” contenders.
Caveat
emptor applies at the racetrack too.
A horse
that looks like a legitimate 2-1 shot does not necessarily offer “value” at
20-1. Rather than rushing to the window to empty one’s 401(k) on such horses,
players should ask themselves a simple question: Why? Why is a horse with so
many positive attributes (remember, the Prime Power rating is a comprehensive assessment of ability) being
dismissed in the wagering? What is the crowd considering that the Prime Power
rating is not?
Granted, some
of these horses are, in fact, genuinely overlooked. I’ve witnessed numerous
animals that I thought were fairly-priced at 2-1 or less pay double digits — but
that is the exception, not the rule.
With this
in mind, it should come as no surprise that horses with the top Prime Power
rating in a race actually perform better when that rating is lower, rather than
higher:
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
Number: 11,294
Winners: 3,752
Win Rate: 33.2%
$2 Return: $1.69
ROI: -15.36%
IV: 2.49
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
Number: 659
Winners: 220
Win Rate: 33.4%
$2 Return: $1.79
ROI: -10.55%
IV: 2.42
Moreover,
horses with the top Prime Power rating that finished poorly last time out
(fifth or worse) return a profit — further proof that factors esteemed by the public, i.e. a good last race, are best avoided when looking for overlays:
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
* Finished fifth or worse in last race.
Number: 225
Winners: 74
Win Rate: 32.9%
$2 Return: $2.03
ROI: +1.69%
IV: 2.36
Of course,
there is nothing to say that these numbers will continue to hold, but I hope
they illustrate both the pros and cons of a mechanical approach.
On the
plus side, using the Brisnet Prime Power rating is quick and easy and, in some
instances, profitable. On the negative side, all mechanical approaches suffer
from one major drawback: they can only measure what was… not what is or what
will be.
Nonetheless,
handicappers willing to put in the time to validate or invalidate a mechanical
rating might very well profit from the experience.
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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NOTE: Rue
Saint Honore had a race-best 95.6 Prime Power rating and finished 7th
in her last race on July 29, 2012.
5 comments:
This cool, thanks for sharing. Are these test limited to just dirt races? The score rate is supposed to go up to 60% when the difference is greater than 10 points in prime power.
It's for all races. Horses with a 10-point Prime Power advantage recorded the following stats:
Number: 744
Winners: 380
Win Rate: 51.1%
$2 Net Return: $1.80
ROI: -9.97%
Coming back within a month only marginally improved the stats, BTW.
TOP BRISNET PRIME POWER RATING
Number: 8,490
Winners: 2,867
Win Rate: 33.8%
$2 Net Return: $1.73
ROI: -13.46%
Do you have any queries between the Prime Power and the odds the horses went off, or Prime Power and their beaten lengths?
For example, in the 10 point advantage Prime Power horses my guess is the average beaten lengths is 0 and odds are less than 1/1.
What about horses within 2 points of the Prime Power? What do they average in odds, and beaten lengths? If one could get a relationship on this one could structure a fairly effective oddsline.
How were you able to test these ideas/angles? Does Brisnet have some kind of software to backtest ideas or angles?
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