Breaking Down the Brisnet Prime Power Rating
It’s no
secret that, for many moons now, I have been trying to beat the game with
mechanical methods of play. In large part, because I simply don’t have time to
handicap like I did 5-6 years ago… nor do I enjoy the process like I used to.
It is also
no secret that I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve found some great systems and angles — ones that,
through testing, I am confident will continue to offer solid ROIs for months
and years to come. But, alas, they all suffer from “Tony Romo Disease” — they don’t
show up often enough to produce consistent, meaningful returns.
Still, I
love the idea of a mechanical method that can, at the very least, help guide
one’s wagering decisions. So, with that in mind, I decided to slice and dice
the Brisnet Prime Power Rating and see if I could find any helpful wagering angles.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
First,
using a database of random races run from July 2012 to February 2013 at racetracks
across the country, I examined the horse with the top (highest) Prime Power
rating in the field. (In the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, the
Prime Power rating and field rank is found right before the horse’s lifetime
record — see California Chrome above.)
Number:
11,953
Winners:
3,972
Win Rate:
33.2%
$2 Return: $1.75
ROI: -15.09%
IV: 2.48
Not bad. These numbers are similar to what one would expect
from the post-time favorite, which gives us a good starting point. Now let’s
see what happens when the top Prime Power horse goes to post as a morning-line
overlay (odds greater than or equal to the morning line) or a morning-line
underlay (odds less than the morning line):
OVERLAYS
Number: 2,186
Winners: 428
Win Rate: 19.6%
$2 Return: $1.64
ROI: -17.81%
IV: 1.49
UNDERLAYS
Number: 9,767
Winners: 3,544
Win Rate: 36.3%
$2 Return: $1.71
ROI: -14.48%
IV: 2.70
While
these numbers may surprise some readers, who assume that higher prices
naturally mean higher profits, they are, I have found, very indicative of what
happens when one looks for overlay opportunities with “obvious” contenders.
Caveat
emptor applies at the racetrack too.
A horse
that looks like a legitimate 2-1 shot does not necessarily offer “value” at
20-1. Rather than rushing to the window to empty one’s 401(k) on such horses,
players should ask themselves a simple question: Why? Why is a horse with so
many positive attributes (remember, the Prime Power rating is a comprehensive assessment of ability) being
dismissed in the wagering? What is the crowd considering that the Prime Power
rating is not?
Granted, some
of these horses are, in fact, genuinely overlooked. I’ve witnessed numerous
animals that I thought were fairly-priced at 2-1 or less pay double digits — but
that is the exception, not the rule.
With this
in mind, it should come as no surprise that horses with the top Prime Power
rating in a race actually perform better when that rating is lower, rather than
higher:
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
Number: 11,294
Winners: 3,752
Win Rate: 33.2%
$2 Return: $1.69
ROI: -15.36%
IV: 2.49
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
Number: 659
Winners: 220
Win Rate: 33.4%
$2 Return: $1.79
ROI: -10.55%
IV: 2.42
Moreover,
horses with the top Prime Power rating that finished poorly last time out
(fifth or worse) return a profit — further proof that factors esteemed by the public, i.e. a good last race, are best avoided when looking for overlays:
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
* Finished fifth or worse in last race.
Number: 225
Winners: 74
Win Rate: 32.9%
$2 Return: $2.03
ROI: +1.69%
IV: 2.36
Of course,
there is nothing to say that these numbers will continue to hold, but I hope
they illustrate both the pros and cons of a mechanical approach.
On the
plus side, using the Brisnet Prime Power rating is quick and easy and, in some
instances, profitable. On the negative side, all mechanical approaches suffer
from one major drawback: they can only measure what was… not what is or what
will be.
Nonetheless,
handicappers willing to put in the time to validate or invalidate a mechanical
rating might very well profit from the experience.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
NOTE: Rue
Saint Honore had a race-best 95.6 Prime Power rating and finished 7th
in her last race on July 29, 2012.
38 comments:
This cool, thanks for sharing. Are these test limited to just dirt races? The score rate is supposed to go up to 60% when the difference is greater than 10 points in prime power.
It's for all races. Horses with a 10-point Prime Power advantage recorded the following stats:
Number: 744
Winners: 380
Win Rate: 51.1%
$2 Net Return: $1.80
ROI: -9.97%
Coming back within a month only marginally improved the stats, BTW.
TOP BRISNET PRIME POWER RATING
Number: 8,490
Winners: 2,867
Win Rate: 33.8%
$2 Net Return: $1.73
ROI: -13.46%
Do you have any queries between the Prime Power and the odds the horses went off, or Prime Power and their beaten lengths?
For example, in the 10 point advantage Prime Power horses my guess is the average beaten lengths is 0 and odds are less than 1/1.
What about horses within 2 points of the Prime Power? What do they average in odds, and beaten lengths? If one could get a relationship on this one could structure a fairly effective oddsline.
How were you able to test these ideas/angles? Does Brisnet have some kind of software to backtest ideas or angles?
In races with a defenseless morning line or post-time top pick, search for a steed with a Brisnet Prime Power rating (of 125 or more noteworthy) that is positioned among the main two in the field. http://www.assignmentcorner.co.uk/assignment-writing-services
Thanks for taking the time to discuss and share this with us, I for one feel strongly about it and really enjoyed learning more about this topic. Please share some more useful info
Brother Printer Support
Businesses around the world have something in common and that is logos. It doesn’t matter if it is simply the company name in a unique font and color scheme but what does matter is that this logo will influence the way customers and other businesses treat you. This is why having a high quality custom logo design is important so clients perceive you positively.
We understand how strict schools are with regards to plagiarism. Therefore, every Best Custom Essay Writing Service has to be screened for plagiarism so that to avoid any traces of Best Online Paper Writing Service.
Secretariat was the first American Thoroughbred race horse who was the first triple crown winner in 1973. The best horse race held in Kentucky Derby and people pay someone to write my essay over the race held in Kentucky
Thank uh for sharing such a important information with us.keep posting
Hey! follow this link to learn how to title a college paper!
Hm, funnny article. I always order some paper here assignmentjunkie.co.uk/buy-dissertation/ and professional writers make my homework while I'm relaxing. Life is really good guys.
mcafee enter product key code - Shielding the computing devices against dangerous online threats, malware, phishing scams, Trojan horses and other infections.
Mcafee offers you the enter mcafee activation code option to give best Home network protection, Multi-device protection, Web Protection, and Identity Theft.
mcafee antivirus is broadly utilized antivirus identifies and kill PC infection, the mail worms,the trojan programs,and additionally enables your framework to free of infection and other malware is a significant every day challenge. for more subtleties visit: mcafee install today.
Antivirus is the need of computers that makes them virus free and we are going to give you full support to get the best antivirus installed in your computers and laptops. Download norton antivirus package with us - norton security setup with product key today.
Download and introduce norton com setup with product key Sign In to Norton. On the off chance that you don't have a Norton account, click Create an Account and complete the sign up procedure. In the Get Started window, click Enter a New Product Key. To take a crack at Automatic Renewal Service for your Norton membership.
office setup, Vonage can help you find the right system to fit your needs & budget. We'll get you started quickly on setting up an office. Visit download office 2016 for more updates.
Microsoft Office install has required the removal of the previously installed version of your Office product on the device or system. activate office and other subscription offers the various features, which you do not get when you do not purchase the Office product. The office can be used free, as Microsoft provides the trial versions of every tool.
Download office setup with our help team without getting any work done by yourself. For more visit activate office on this computer now.
To activate Hulu Plus on your device, either use the on-screen keyboard to enter your Hulu log in information or go to hulu tv activate code and enter the device activation code. Either of these methods will allow you to use Hulu on any Hulu-supported device.
In order to activate your Roku device, fist you need to visit roku link activate roku tv . ... Roku link activation code will be appeared on the home-screen of your smart HD TV. ... Roku link code is the important thing to affix your Roku streaming device to your Roku account.
Real-time problems and outages for Office 365. Is the service down? Can't login or connect? Here you see what is going on. for more details visit activate office 2016 with a product key today.
Visit www.office.com/setup in order to know everything about the hassle-free deployment process of Microsoft Office Setup 2019 and it's applications.
Microsoft Office setup has a wide range of products with different features at www.office.com/setup. Install and activate it using the MS Office Setup activation key code.
Norton Setup – www.norton.com/setup offers world-class security to your PC, Mac, Android, or iOS devices. Norton antivirus provides protection against malicious online threats while offering smooth system operation as well.
Go to the web browser and visit www.mcafee.com/activate. Then type the 25-digit number that you have purchased. Now download the McAfee setup and install and wait for a few minutes to restart and update it. Create a Mcafee antivirus account.
Mcafee Antivirus has recognized to be an effective way of keeping up your devices and your data safe from getting infected by any hackers and virus attackers. www.mcafee.com/activate will help the user to get easy support.
Mcafee Antivirus has recognized to be an effective way of keeping up your devices and your data safe from getting infected by any hackers and virus attackers. www.mcafee.com/activate will help the user to get easy support.
Get started with office setup at www.office.com/setup. It provide ease of working and systematic arrangement of your worksheet.
Webroot Antivirus is the best security solution which gives total protection and 100% safety from being damaged by harmful viruses. Get your webroot today at www.webroot.com/safe. All the devices like PC's, Laptops, Mac, Ios, and Android Phones in which we use internet connection are safe with the use of Webroot Antivirus.
Norton is an antivirus and security software for Windows, Mac, iPhone, and Android. It has many different features for protecting the device from various web threats and the main features in the Norton software are anti-spyware, web browser protection, antivirus, and firewall security. www.norton.com/setup will help the user to enjoy all these amazing features.
Norton is an antivirus and security software for Windows, Mac, iPhone, and Android. Visit www.norton.com/setup as it has many different features for protecting the device from various web threats and the main features in the Norton software are anti-spyware, web browser protection, antivirus, and firewall security.
Hulu is one of the best streaming services that ease access to content on different types of devices. You can stream across computers, mobile devices and gaming consoles at www.hulu.com/activate. However,before enjoying this service you will need to subscribe to the service and activate your Hulu account.
To install Norton that you purchased from www.norton.com/setup or from a retail store, you must create a Norton account or add the purchased product to the existing account.
Webroot is one of the best online security program if you are looking for an antivirus for your computer and mobile. You can get this program at www.webroot.com/safe and create your webroot account today.
Activate your Webroot Account by entering your Webroot Activation Code. Facing issues…visit www.webroot.com/safe to get easy and quick steps to activate and install webroot with key code.
Post a Comment