Breaking Down the Brisnet Prime Power Rating
It’s no
secret that, for many moons now, I have been trying to beat the game with
mechanical methods of play. In large part, because I simply don’t have time to
handicap like I did 5-6 years ago… nor do I enjoy the process like I used to.
It is also
no secret that I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve found some great systems and angles — ones that,
through testing, I am confident will continue to offer solid ROIs for months
and years to come. But, alas, they all suffer from “Tony Romo Disease” — they don’t
show up often enough to produce consistent, meaningful returns.
Still, I
love the idea of a mechanical method that can, at the very least, help guide
one’s wagering decisions. So, with that in mind, I decided to slice and dice
the Brisnet Prime Power Rating and see if I could find any helpful wagering angles.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
First,
using a database of random races run from July 2012 to February 2013 at racetracks
across the country, I examined the horse with the top (highest) Prime Power
rating in the field. (In the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, the
Prime Power rating and field rank is found right before the horse’s lifetime
record — see California Chrome above.)
Number:
11,953
Winners:
3,972
Win Rate:
33.2%
$2 Return: $1.75
ROI: -15.09%
IV: 2.48
Not bad. These numbers are similar to what one would expect
from the post-time favorite, which gives us a good starting point. Now let’s
see what happens when the top Prime Power horse goes to post as a morning-line
overlay (odds greater than or equal to the morning line) or a morning-line
underlay (odds less than the morning line):
OVERLAYS
Number: 2,186
Winners: 428
Win Rate: 19.6%
$2 Return: $1.64
ROI: -17.81%
IV: 1.49
UNDERLAYS
Number: 9,767
Winners: 3,544
Win Rate: 36.3%
$2 Return: $1.71
ROI: -14.48%
IV: 2.70
While
these numbers may surprise some readers, who assume that higher prices
naturally mean higher profits, they are, I have found, very indicative of what
happens when one looks for overlay opportunities with “obvious” contenders.
Caveat
emptor applies at the racetrack too.
A horse
that looks like a legitimate 2-1 shot does not necessarily offer “value” at
20-1. Rather than rushing to the window to empty one’s 401(k) on such horses,
players should ask themselves a simple question: Why? Why is a horse with so
many positive attributes (remember, the Prime Power rating is a comprehensive assessment of ability) being
dismissed in the wagering? What is the crowd considering that the Prime Power
rating is not?
Granted, some
of these horses are, in fact, genuinely overlooked. I’ve witnessed numerous
animals that I thought were fairly-priced at 2-1 or less pay double digits — but
that is the exception, not the rule.
With this
in mind, it should come as no surprise that horses with the top Prime Power
rating in a race actually perform better when that rating is lower, rather than
higher:
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
Number: 11,294
Winners: 3,752
Win Rate: 33.2%
$2 Return: $1.69
ROI: -15.36%
IV: 2.49
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
Number: 659
Winners: 220
Win Rate: 33.4%
$2 Return: $1.79
ROI: -10.55%
IV: 2.42
Moreover,
horses with the top Prime Power rating that finished poorly last time out
(fifth or worse) return a profit — further proof that factors esteemed by the public, i.e. a good last race, are best avoided when looking for overlays:
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
* Finished fifth or worse in last race.
Number: 225
Winners: 74
Win Rate: 32.9%
$2 Return: $2.03
ROI: +1.69%
IV: 2.36
Of course,
there is nothing to say that these numbers will continue to hold, but I hope
they illustrate both the pros and cons of a mechanical approach.
On the
plus side, using the Brisnet Prime Power rating is quick and easy and, in some
instances, profitable. On the negative side, all mechanical approaches suffer
from one major drawback: they can only measure what was… not what is or what
will be.
Nonetheless,
handicappers willing to put in the time to validate or invalidate a mechanical
rating might very well profit from the experience.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
NOTE: Rue
Saint Honore had a race-best 95.6 Prime Power rating and finished 7th
in her last race on July 29, 2012.
318 comments:
1 – 200 of 318 Newer› Newest»This cool, thanks for sharing. Are these test limited to just dirt races? The score rate is supposed to go up to 60% when the difference is greater than 10 points in prime power.
It's for all races. Horses with a 10-point Prime Power advantage recorded the following stats:
Number: 744
Winners: 380
Win Rate: 51.1%
$2 Net Return: $1.80
ROI: -9.97%
Coming back within a month only marginally improved the stats, BTW.
TOP BRISNET PRIME POWER RATING
Number: 8,490
Winners: 2,867
Win Rate: 33.8%
$2 Net Return: $1.73
ROI: -13.46%
Do you have any queries between the Prime Power and the odds the horses went off, or Prime Power and their beaten lengths?
For example, in the 10 point advantage Prime Power horses my guess is the average beaten lengths is 0 and odds are less than 1/1.
What about horses within 2 points of the Prime Power? What do they average in odds, and beaten lengths? If one could get a relationship on this one could structure a fairly effective oddsline.
How were you able to test these ideas/angles? Does Brisnet have some kind of software to backtest ideas or angles?
In races with a defenseless morning line or post-time top pick, search for a steed with a Brisnet Prime Power rating (of 125 or more noteworthy) that is positioned among the main two in the field. http://www.assignmentcorner.co.uk/assignment-writing-services
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Linksys RE6300 Extender Sethelps in providing high-speed internet in your dead zones. Linksys RE6300 AC750 with the help of a browser can be Setup
Before starting the process ofLinksys RE6300 Extender just note down your SSID and Password of your Router.
Linksys Extender RE6300 should be plugged into a power outlet. Once you see the blinking orange light then start the RE6300 setup process. how to reset linksys extender re6300
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Are you needs to do wifi.wavlink.com setup. You can do this with simple tasks. Interface your switch with your gadget. Open any program and enter wifi.wavlink.com in program bar (hit enter). After take some time you divert to wifi.wavlink.com setup page. For more data you can contact with our specialized specialists through live talk on our site.
Linksys extender setup by using extender.linksys.com can be done because the URL takes you to the login page of linksys range extender. All you need to do is enter the defaults and you will be on the setup wizard page of your linksys wifi network range extender. We hope now you know all about reaching to linksys extender setup Linksys extender setup by using extender.linksys.com.
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linksys extender login is the default web address that makes it easy for Linksys users to complete the Linksys extender setup process. linksys router password
Are you planning to expand the existing router’s wireless range in your home? If the answer is yes, then we recommend you set up a TP Link WiFi extender. Performing TP Link extender setup in home allows you to turn the dead zones to fun zones
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The security of the device is maintained by logging in. If you want to login to the Edimax router, then you must visite www.edimax.setup , There is some process of edimax router login which is mentioned here..
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Use the default gateway extender.linksys.com
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The dlinkrouter.local process helps in accessing the web-based management page of the router. You can configure various settings of the router and alter them at your convenience anytime. Just make sure that the internet connection is smooth and stable throughout the process and that you are using a compatible browser. In case you want more information on the Dlink router login process, call our experts now on the toll-free number.
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Setup.ampedwireless.com is a web page for a router set up. It can also access the features of Amped Routers. Log in requires the username and password. It is also strongly recommended by the experts that the username and password should be changed by default. It is very important to understand while accessing Setup.ampedwireless.com that the Ethernet cable coming from the amped wireless router is properly connected to the computer.
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Dlinkrouter.local is global provider for networking hardware so that people can connect with information all over the world and also can connect with each other. Setting up of the router is very easy and anybody can set up and install the routers themselves by typing Dlinkrouter.local in any web browser.
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When you are done with the connection process, you can do the configuration either through the web interface of an Orbi device or through your mobile device. It doesn’t matter whether you have a wired or a wireless connection being used for connecting the Orbi device to the computer, you always use a web browser to change the settings of your Orbi device. The first time a user accesses the orbilogin.com interface, it is recommended to use the Netgear Installation assistant to check the Internet service with which you are connected.
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Linksys Velop is the best WiFi device when it comes to enjoying the internet without any lag. However, to make the most of it, you first need to do Linksys Velop Setup.
You might be facing issues while doing Linksys Velop AC2200 setup because the Ethernet cable you used to connect your Velop Linksys node with the modem or modem router is damaged. If what we are predicting is true, then consider replacing the cable with a new one right away.
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Do you want to arris router login? First, make sure your PC is connected to the Arris router. Now, enter the default IP http://192.168.0.1 into the address bar. After that, you will visit the Arris router login page where you need to provide the default Arris router password and username to log in.
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Myrouter.local is the default web deal used to engage with the web control window of linksys router. It is utilized to engage with the various capabilities and settings of the router. A consumer has to apply this web cope to go to the web software window of the linksys router.
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For Rockspace wifi extender setup, make sure your extender is plugged into the power outlet. Connect your PC to the extender’s network and enter the default web address re.rockspace.local in the web browser. Login to the Rockspace wifi extender setup and follow the on-screen instructions to configure your device.
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