Showing posts with label Free PPs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free PPs. Show all posts

  • Derby Prep Preview

    POSTED Mar 7, 2014 By Derek Simon
    The past couple of weeks, I’ve been looking at the Kentucky Derby preps in light of who can progress on the Derby trail. This week, thanks in part to some key defections in the two preps being analyzed — the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and Grade II San Felipe — I’ve decided to look at both contests primarily from a handicapping perspective.

    So, without further ado…   

    TAMPA BAY DERBY (G2)
    11th Tampa Bay Downs
    1 1/16 miles (dirt)

    1-RING WEEKEND (15/1)
    Broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last time, earning a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a -9 late speed ration (LSR). However, the most interesting thing about this guy is his trainer, H. Graham Motion. Motion is very capable with recent maiden graduates (19 percent wins since 2008) and essentially breaks even with longshots of 10-1 or greater (-0.5 percent ROI in 608 starts over the past seven years).

    The fact that Motion enlists the services of Tampa Bay’s perennial top jockey, Daniel Centeno, makes Ring Weekend that much more intriguing.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    2-SURFING U S A (3/1)
    Finished second in an allowance race at GP in his latest after setting a moderate pace (-5 early speed ration). Todd Pletcher trainee shows improving early lick and could be sitting on a big effort — but 3/1 looks a little light.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-1

    3-MATADOR (8/1)
    His recent main-track LSRs are a concern, especially in light of the fact that he lost position down the stretch in the Stephen F. Davis on Feb. 1. He could certainly move forward off that effort, but I would insist on a decent price.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    4-COLTIMUS PRIME (15/1)
    Woodbine shippers have not had overwhelming success at Tampa Bay Downs of late (-28.5 percent in 2013), but this Justin Nixon-trained colt may be the exception to the rule. To begin with, Nixon is 15-of-42 (36 percent) with horses moving from an all-weather surface (like Woodbine) to a dirt surface (like Tampa Bay Downs).

    Secondly, Coltimus Prime’s front-running style should be aided by the switch. Tampa Bay Downs has witnessed 26 percent wire-to-wire winners at today’s (main-track) distance of 1 1/16 miles this meet. Contrast that with Woodbine, which has seen just 18% wire-to-wire winners at the same distance over Polytrack.  
    FAIR ODDS: 12-1

    5-CONQUEST TITAN (7/2)
    His run in the Holy Bull was good, but not great, as evidenced by the 92 BSF and -14 LSR he earned for his runner-up performance. What’s more, he’s been wildly inconsistent. He could certainly win — his class figures are among the best in the field — but 7/2 is too low for me.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-1

    6-VINCEREMOS (4/1)
    After going way too fast early (-15 ESR), yet still breaking his maiden, at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 4, this son of Pioneerof the Nile showed grit and determination in winning the Grade III Stephen F. Davis by the hair of his chinny chin chin on Feb. 1. His LSRs are improving and trainer Todd Pletcher certainly knows how to win a Kentucky Derby prep (the Derby itself is another matter).
    FAIR ODDS: 7-2

    7-EAST HALL (10/1)
    I thought this dude was a live longshot in the Fountain of Youth and he didn’t disappoint, rounding out the superfecta at 72-1. That said, it’s hard to be impressed with a closer that earned a -15 LSR last time; I don’t like him, don’t hate him.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    8-COUSIN STEPHEN (9/2)
    To me, the key to this colt’s performance is tactics and the switch to jockey Javier Castellano may be telling in this regard. Although the son of Proud Citizen set the pace and earned the best (lowest) last-race ESR in today’s field in the Stephen F. Davis, he’s better coming off the pace — which he demonstrated under Castellano… twice.

    The first time was on Nov. 7 when the Chad Brown trainee came from third to win drawing away by 7 ½ lengths at Aqueduct while earning a 92 BSF and 0 LSR.

    The second time was at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Even though he faded to fifth after racing just off the leader at the first call that day, Cousin Stephen earned a 90 BSF and -2 LSR in a deceptively good effort.

    A return to those stalking tactics makes him a big threat in the Tampa Bay Derby.
    FAIR ODDS: 4-1

    9-HY KODIAK WARRIOR (10/1)
    Very interesting contender coming out of a ridiculously strong (7.0 Key Race Rating) allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Though his pedigree might be questionable for the Kentucky Derby, today’s 1 1/16-mile event should pose no problems and his strong overall speed and pace figures make the son of Kodiak Kowboy a huge threat.
    FAIR ODDS: 6-1

    10-TUSCAN GETAWAY (20/1)
    A relatively slow need-the-lead type breaking from the far outside in a 10-horse field… not exactly the kind of horse I like to play — at any odds.
    FAIR ODDS: 50-1

    Click HERE for free Brisnet past performances for the Tampa Bay Derby

    SAN FELIPE STAKES (G2)
    5th Santa Anita Park
    1 1/16 miles (dirt)

    HOME RUN KITTEN
    One dirt race was not encouraging for son of turf star Kitten’s Joy. He’ll need to improve a bunch to be competitive against the likes of these.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    UNSTOPPABLE COLBY
    Last-race pace figures were remarkably good (-9 ESR, -5 LSR). However, those numbers were earned in a nondescript maiden race (3.0 Key Race Rating) and trainer D. Wayne Lukas costs bettors nearly 50 cents on the dollar in such situations.
    FAIR ODDS: 12-1

    RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
    Awful overall LSRs for a horse trying to break its maiden in a Grade II race.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    CALIFORNIA CHROME
    Son of Lucky Pulpit recorded a 94 BSF and -4 LSR in a resounding score in the California Cup Derby. And even though that was a restricted affair, it’s hard not be impressed by how Art Sherman’s protégé has been performing recently (two consecutive wins by a combined margin of 11 ¾ lengths).
    FAIR ODDS: 2-1

    SAWYER’S HILL
    Kristin Mulhall has a positive ROI with horses moving from a sprint to a route and the son of Spring at Last (24 percent route winners vs. 76 percent sprint winners) had a useful prep, albeit against maiden company.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    KRISTO
    With Bayern out and an inside draw, this guy looks like he could set the pace today… and the numbers suggest he might be tough to catch. Last time, he earned a 95 BSF, -9 ESR and -11 LSR in a narrow loss to Midnight Hawk in the Grade III Sham. New jock Joel Rosario hopes he can reverse that decision.
    FAIR ODDS: 9-2

    SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
    It’s the tale of two cities with this son of Rock Hard Ten. On the plus side, he appears very talented. In his first — and only — race, the David Hofmans trainee earned an 88 BSF and -4 LSR in breaking his maiden over the faux dirt at Del Mar. He’s also impeccably bred (his sire, Rock Hard Ten, gets 56 percent route winners and boasts a 7.4 AWD).

    On the negative side, Hofmans isn’t great with horses moving up in class — nor is he particularly adept with horses coming off a layoff.
    FAIR ODDS: 8-1

    MIDNIGHT HAWK
    Colt’s attempt to rate in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 8 was a mixed bag: although his BSF went from a 97 in the Sham to a 95 last time, his LSR actually improved from a -9 to a -6. Since then, the son of Midnight Lute has been working well for trainer Bob Baffert, as witnessed by a five-furlong drill timed in :58-4/5 on Feb. 26.

    He looks like a major player once again.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-2

    RECANTED
    Hard to endorse off his form in England and one race in the States… but all those races were on the green.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    Click HERE for free Brisnet past performances for the San Felipe Stakes.

    Riposte Looks Like a Lock in the Hillsborough

    Click on image to enlarge
    I know, I know… calling a horse a “lock” on a public forum such as this inevitably leads to the defeat of said lock — typically in inglorious fashion. But I can’t help myself: I think 6-Riposte (2/1 on the morning line) is the proverbial free bingo square in the 9th race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Grade III Hillsborough Handicap, on Saturday.

    After competing against the best of the best on the grass in England and Ireland, Riposte made her US debut in the Grade III Suwannee River Stakes on Feb. 8. And despite a ridiculously slow pace that day (+12 ESR), Ripose came charging late, recording a 95 BSF and +9 LSR. If the 4-year-old daughter of Dansili performs anywhere near that good on Saturday, she will win.

    At least that’s my story… and I’m stickin’ to it.

    Simon Speed Rations Explained

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event. 

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well. 

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

  • Super Saturday

    POSTED Sep 28, 2013 By Derek Simon

    It’s “Super Saturday,” a day when numerous Breeders’ Cup (yes, it’s that time of year already) preps take place. Below is a look at some of the action from Belmont Park:

    5th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 1-1/8 miles (dirt).

    Let me start by noting that the Beldame is an invitational race and, given the field, I have to assume that my invitation to run was lost in the mail. Outside of the two marquee names – Royal Delta and Princess of Sylmar — the remaining contenders have a 14-for-75 record between them. Even worse, three of the four are exiting horrendous preps.

    Using my Key Race Ratings (the higher the number, the better), here are the last-race figures for each of the Beldame entrants:

    1-Roman Invader (0.9 in a restricted stakes)
    2-Princess of Sylmar (5.0 in the Grade I Alabama)
    3-And Why Not (2.0 in a restricted stakes)
    4-Royal Delta (2.5 in the Grade I Personal Ensign)
    5-Centring (2.5 in the Grade I Personal Ensign)
    6-Lady Cohiba (1.0 in an ungraded stakes race)

    Now, it’s tough enough to jump up in class and beat the likes of a Princess Sylmar or Royal Delta, but to do so after having faced the equine version of pro wrestling “jobbers” last time…

    To me, this race comes down to two things: 1) pace and 2) current form.

    On the pace front, I have a sneaking suspicion that Roman Invader might grab the early lead. She’s on the rail with a good “gate jockey” aboard — Junior Alvarado (21 percent win rate with “E/P” types according to Brisnet.com) — and her -6 last-race early speed ration (ESR) is on par with Royal Delta’s recent numbers. Lady Cohiba, the other early runner, is stuck outside and doesn’t always show speed.

    As a result, I think the pace will be honest at the very least.

    In terms of current form, I give Princess of Sylmar a slight edge. As I pointed out on my latest podcast, at this point in their respective careers, the 3.5-year-old daughter of Majestic Warrior actually has slightly more upside than the 5.6-year-old Royal Delta does, based on a study of age and performance conducted by college professor and horse owner Marshall Gramm. The fact that the youngster is getting three pounds from her elder rival is just icing on the cake.

    To me, betting the Beldame is all about price. Below are my fair odds and some brief — very brief — comments:

    1-Roman Invader (15-1): The only horse I give a shot to upset the favorites if she gets the early lead.
    2-Princess of Sylmar (9-5): She’s getting all the buzz, but might, indeed, be the value play.
    3-And Why Not (50-1): Because she’s not very good. Question answered.
    4-Royal Delta (1-1): Clearly the one to beat, but she’s not invulnerable.
    5-Centring (20-1): Can pick up the stragglers late.
    6-Lady Cohiba (15-1): Reasonably talented, but will need to work out a trip. Worth considering at a price.

    6th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 1 mile (dirt).

    This race features the ridiculously-talented Graydar making his first start since annexing the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap on March 30. Below are my fair odds and thoughts:

    1-Easter Gift (3-1 entry): He faced next-to-nothing in the Alydar (1.0 KRR), although his speed and pace figures in that race were OK.
    2-Graydar (6-5): The one to beat, but last time he came off a layoff of this magnitude, he laid an egg.
    3-Praetereo (8-1): He’s improved since being acquired by Drawing Away Stables and looks like an overlay.
    1A-Jackson Bend (3-1 entry): This guy has banked over $1.7 million in his career, but his recent LSRs have been just so-so.
    4-Hym Book (8-1): He dons blinkers for the first time, which might help given the average ESR of -1 in the Kelso… but I doubt it.
    5-Souper Speedy (7-2): Looks like the probable pacesetter and he did earn a zero LSR in the Remsen as a juvenile… interesting.
    6-Brujo de Olleros (10-1): Faced much lesser last time, but won in convincing fashion, earning a late speed ration (LSR) of -4.

    7th Belmont Park
    $400,000 purse. 6 furlongs (dirt).

    1-Forty Tales (6-1): This guy suffers from two fatal flaws: 1) No early speed and 2) No late speed. Yet he’s 7-2 on the morning line. I’ll pass.
    2-Justin Phillip (5-1): He usually runs well, but he’s no win machine. Looks like an underlay to me.
    3-Bahamian Squall (8-1): Solid ESRs in Florida and finished second to Justin Phillip last time despite a troubled trip; could improve.
    4-Strapping Groom (5-1): It’s doubtful this guy will be able to get away with the soft fractions he recorded in the Forego (-3 ESR), but he’s not a need-the-lead type — he has ability.
    5-The Lumber Guy (7-2): Defending champ looks primed to defend his crown. Yeah, his last race stunk, but it was clearly a prep for today. Trainer Michael Hushion is great with horses making their second start off of a layoff and The Lumber Guy’s workouts have been sizzling.
    6-Palace (15-1): Beat my top contender last time and has to be considered, if only for a minor award.
    7-Candyman E (20-1): Ranks fourth in speed, fifth in ESRs and sixth in LSRs. Not impossible, but definitely a reach.
    8-Private Zone (4-1): There’s not a lot of early lick in this race and this dude is dead-game; big shot at what figures to be a fair price. (At press time, 16 of the 26 six-furlong races carded at Belmont Park during the current fall meet had been won in wire-to-wire fashion.)

    8th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/4 miles (inner turf).

    1-Tannery (1/1 entry): Part of an entry with Laughing. This gal is the ying to the latter’s yang — a deep closer with good LSRs.
    2-Mystical Star (6-1): This girl has consistently outrun her breeding and could be tough given the right pace scenario.
    3-Somali Lemonade (8-1): Doesn’t win much — just 3-of-14 lifetime — but she’s usually in the hunt.
    4-Valiant Girl (15-1): Captured an ungraded stakes in mediocre time in her most recent outing; needs to show more.
    5-Kissable (12-1): Favored in the Waya* last time and had tons of trouble… the problem is her previous efforts don’t look good enough, even if one puts an “X” through that race.
    6-Qushchi (4-1): Looks to be improving. The only question is today’s distance, which — believe it or not — is shorter than any of Qushchi’s previous tries.
    1A-Laughing (1-1 entry): She’s the only Group I or Grade I winner in the field and she figures to be on the engine in soft fractions once again — should prove tough to overhaul.
    7-White Rose (20-1): This filly ranks second in overall LSRs and I think she has a reasonable upset chance despite the 20-1 fair odds I assigned her.

    * The Brisnet speed figure for the Waya appears to be an aberration. Handle with care.

    9th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/2 miles (turf).

    3-Nutello (8-1): Bid and faded in his US debut, hinting at an improved performance today.
    1-Imagining (7-2 entry): Blinkers went on last time and they led to a stellar performance in the restricted Idle Rich Stakes.
    2-Big Blue Kitten (8-5 entry): Only out-of-the-money finish came at Ascot. Other than that, this five-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy has been a model of consistency. The one to beat.
    4-Slumber (10-1): Has started exactly two times since Nov. 27, 2011.
    2B-Real Solution (8-5): I’m still not sold on the Arlington Million champ, but he adds to the strength of the Ramsey entry.
    5-Twilight Eclipse (4-1): This guy has a bad habit of hanging in the stretch, but he’s unquestionably talented.
    1A-Boisterous (7-2 entry): He’s been favored in eight of his last 10 starts, including two (of three) Grade I events, which tells you all you need to know about how good this horse is.
    2X-Joes Blazing Aaron (8-5 entry): Son of Graeme Hall could be the key to the race. How can a horse that was just claimed be the key to a Grade I contest, you ask? Well, it’s because the Ken and Sarah Ramsey-owned gelding is likely in this race to do one thing — ensure a decent pace for his more esteemed entry mates. And his latest ESRs — a -7 in a 5 ½-furlong sprint (hey, there’s a good prep for today’s 12-furlong tilt) and a -8 in a 1 1/16-mile affair — lead me to believe Joes Blazing Aaron is up to the task.
    6-King Kressa (10-1): I would like this guy if it weren’t for the presence of the horse I just talked about, Joes Blazing Aaron. Simply put, King Kressa appears to be a need-the-lead type and he will surely face pace pressure today.
    7-Little Mike (12-1): He’s another frontrunner, but one that I think has seen his better days. Needs to be respected based on his past class, but I’d insist on a price if you’re betting on last year’s BC Turf champ to hit the board for the first time in 2013.

    10th Belmont Park
    $600,000 purse. 1-1/4 miles (dirt).

    1-Ron the Greek (15-1): Appears to have lost a step, as both his speed figures and LSRs have been mediocre (at best) of late.
    2-Orb (3-1): It’s time for the Kentucky Derby champ to put up or tell his supporters to shut up… and I think he might just do the former. If one takes the (reasonable) view that the son of Malibu Moon was short in the Travers, one is left with an inescapable conclusion: that was a heck of an effort. Not only did Orb earn a 108 Brisnet speed rating in that Grade I affair — the best last-race number in the field — but his -3 LSR is also tops. A potentially slow pace is the only drawback.
    3-Last Gunfighter (8-1): His effort in the Pimlico Special could win this… but his last two tries temper my enthusiasm.
    4-Vitoria Olimpica (20-1): The field he beat in the ungraded Alydar was only slightly stronger than the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense… or offense… or special teams… you get the picture. That said, his speed and pace digits from that race were pretty good — and he’s got the right running style.
    5-Alpha (10-1): After more bad runs than a pair of panty hose in a rose garden (hey, it’s late and I’m scrambling to get this column finished), Alpha annexed the Grade I Woodward in gutty fashion. On the down side, the son of Bernardini was able to draw clear early lead while recording a -1 ESR that day — don’t think he’ll have that luxury today.
    6-Flat Out (6-1): Seven-year-old is ultra-consistent, but he has the look of a major underlay today.
    7-Palace Malice (7-2): His versatility leads me to believe he is among the best three-year-olds in training — if not the best. However, I wonder how much his outstanding effort in the Travers — he stumbled at the start, raced wide and came charging late — took out of him.
    8-Cross Traffic (3-1): Once again, the fact that Todd Pletcher trains the speediest frontrunners in the race (à la the Travers) creates headaches for handicappers. My suspicion is this guy will be sent and Palace Malice will stalk, but who knows? If Cross Traffic does set the pace, how fast he goes early will likely determine the outcome of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Personally, I’m a bit dubious of Cross Traffic’s ability to handle 10 furlongs and would not bet him at odds of less than 7-2.

    FREE Brisnet Past Performances

    In honor of "Super Saturday," I'm teaming with TwinSpires and Brisnet to offer free past performances, featuring my pace figures, for some of the bigger races at Belmont Park and Santa Anita on Sept. 28, 2013. Enjoy!

    Belmont Park (races 5-10)
    Santa Anita Park (races 7-10)

  • The Wise Dan Pick 4 conundrum: When even money on 2-to-5 isn't worth it

    POSTED Sep 13, 2013 By Unknown


    This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine, or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

     Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe even at 1-to-5, and as Homer J. says, "That's bad."

     But realistically speaking, Wise Dan has a 75%-80% chance of winning, which actually represents value at 2-to-5, and that's good, but I think he'll be used on more than 80% of people's Pick 4 tickets, and that's bad.

     As you can probably tell by now, I've decided to try to leverage Wise Dan as a single who wins 75%-80% of the time rather than take 3- or 4-to-1 on him losing. I work through the math of that decision and the ticket I'm playing in a Pick 4 analysis I did for Brisnet.com & Woodbine. You can get that (as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson) for FREE by CLICKING HERE.

     If you're reading this, I'm assuming you already have at least a little racing/handicapping knowledge, so I won't insult that by telling you why Wise Dan is the obvious choice, but it is worth noting just how much better he looks on paper than his rivals.

    Wise Dan's 21.8-point Prime Power advantage over Za Approval is among the largest gaps I've seen. I don't have numbers for that high, but horses with a 10-point advantage win more than half the time. We don't have a Prime Power figure for import Trade Storm, but his Class Ratings tell us that he's closer in ability to Wise Dan (.7 off his average last three races) than Za Approval (1.1 points better). With Class Ratings 1 point is a lot, so Wise Dan has a comfortable advantage, but if I were playing anyone against Wise Dan I'd be looking for at least 6-to-1 on Trade Storm, and as crazy as this is going to sound, a $8 straight exacta (for $2) on those two I don't think would be taking the worst of it.

     Forte de Marmi is the other big favorite in that $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 sequence, and I'd much rather beat him than Wise Dan, and I will try to do so with IRISH MISSION, who is the only horse in the field besides Forte de Marmi to earn a triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating in victory.

     That italicized caveat is important to me in this race because Irish Mission's only chance to win will be on the front end, so he's absolutely going to have to go as fast as can as far as he can, and 12-to-1 is a fair price on that prospect.

     Wise Dan certainly doesn't help add value to the Pick 4, but even if you think of it as a Pick 3, how exciting would it be to start a Pick 3 with a $20 horse beating an even money shot. Real exciting, I tell you. This exciting.

     Speaking of exciting, the stakes action begins Saturday at Woodbine with a pair of Win & You're In races for Breeders' Cup juvenile turf events: The Natalma for males and the Summer for females.

     Triple Crown Insider took time out of its busy Keeneland September yearling sale to discuss the current two-year-old landscape with a focus on more main track types, but touched on the Woodbine races as well.

  • Penultimate Pacing Parades

    POSTED Apr 18, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The last round, which is the next-to-last featuring of the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series for the males and the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series for the mares, highlights one of the last weeks before the Grand Circuit rolls into New Jersey for the start of the 2012 season (more on that and the Hambletonian Trail in our weekly update on Sunday).  

    Next week the “Levy” final figures a field that is the best of the best of this series and that could mean tough competition considering how favorites have dominated this year’s events. Yonkers Raceway hosts all of the events for older pacers, the mares on April 20 and the males on April 21.   

    At Cal-Expo, TwinSpires-Cal-Expo’s exclusive no-takeout Pick 4 looks quite the wager on April 20.   

    Long Live The Levys


    The April 21 “Levy” battles are in four divisions this week and again we analyze them. We must make note, though, as the penultimate fields go for berths In the final, that this year has been uncommon to past seasons, where favorites shared spots in legs and some faltered to situations where we were able to get an edge. The legs this year have been solidly simple, resulting in some terrible prices, where even exactas came back embarrassingly low. Maybe this week will provide an anomaly, which was once no such thing in these miles. 

    Race 5

    Valentino returns to our favor after a weak start this series. Last week he put in a tough first-over trip, which was impressive, but he couldn't get to Real Nice. He will be seeking the points to make the final today. PH Jackpot seems to go the overland route every time. He may finally get the advantage in this if he tucks early.  

    Race 6

    Razzle Dazzle was a favorite last week, got the trip, but needed the race more than his backers thought he did. He should be better this time and perhaps passed up by the public from the awful post 7. 

    Race 7

    Atochia has sparkled  in this series and there is no reason to think he will continue to do so and handle post 6. Sea Venture has surprised a lot of people in this series. George Brennan should arrange a way to race him well from post 8 here.  

    Race 8
    Blatently Good should be racing better but has never totally embraced the half-miler in New York. Here, he will be bet far less as Real Nice, who gets the inside. Don't overlook Blatenly Good here, though, this guy wakes up when the price is right.  

    ‘Match’ Mares


    The Blue Chip Matchmaker begins its penultimate round with Race 4 on April 20. Shacked Up dueled hard for the top last time but couldn't sustain the spot. She should improve.  

    The second division, Race 6, finds us ready to back Billmar Scooter. Last week she went first over and sustained the place spot. She will be tough to beat and a possible outsider.

    Naughtytiltheend has been aggressive every start and here, although she gets post 7, she should get a good trip and possibly upset as we have been feeling she would in previous miles.  

    The third Matchmaker mile brings us back to Arctic Fire N. Although she hasn't won yet, she should seek redemption with fervor in this final division and could be a very good price, as she was when she got in the money two back.  

    The nightcap offers Hula's Z Tam. This week she gets the luck of the draw for the first time in awhile. She should finally win a division. Meanwhile, Summer Snow, who was a huge second last week goes up against a weaker field this week and could finally upset.

    Cal Exotic

    The April 20 no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo looks so tempting that we offer a larger ticket than usual; not much bigger, just a smidgeon because we feel very good about this week’s combination of races, from Race 11 through Race 14. Here are, with comments, our choices for your consideration.

    Leg 1
    (1) Little Anna Mae was awesome from post 10 among her division last week and finished an honest fourth. (7) Dreamsofgrandeur can come right back and win again after a great victory display. (10) Afinetouchofclass was well supported, fired early but paced out of steam and still needs to be included in this heavy opener. 

    Leg 2
    (1) Taxi Dancer dueled strongly but lost the battle as the choice from the 8 hole, gets the rail here and seems to tower over this group. 

    Leg 3
    (4) Komoda’s Fantasy was wide and still picked up the place at 7-1. (6) Jessalilpeace was in good hands when my friend Joe Faraldo won driving in an amateur event and there is little reason to ignore the pacer in this contest. (9) Wrangler Reward got second, too, but he was on the outside for three calls. 

    Leg 4
    It will all come down to the single, (9) King Carver. He has been poised to toss a knockout punch and even from the outside this looks like the ring where he can do it.

    On the horses-to-watch list this Saturday, April 21:

    Buffalo Raceway

    Launching Tonight, Race 4
    Never Going Away, Race 6
    Golden Terror, Race 7

    Lebanon Raceway

    Miss Bikini Beach, Race 1
    Brother Bud, Race 2
    Yank My Rose, Race 6
    Baby Blue Pajamas, Race 9

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • Stalwarts’ Battles Ensue

    POSTED Apr 11, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Though there is one less division and some smaller fields, the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series ensues, as does the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series, sans See You At Peelers. Yonkers Raceway hosts one of the signature events for older pacers.   

    At Woodbine on Saturday, while the “Levy” boys go sailing near The Bronx, it’s bargain time again. Woodbine, players on TwinSpires continue to collect TSC Elite points at the rate of 10X with successful $10 win tickets. 

    At Cal-Expo on Friday the 13th, the exclusive TwinSpires-Cal-Expo no-takeout Pick 4 could come off well despite all superstitions.   

    Levy Longevity


    The April 14 Yonkers program offers a quintet of “Levy” legs this week and again we analyze the battles. For free FAST sheets, click here.

    Race 4

    Strand Hanover battled hard with Atochia, winner of two legs, for two calls last week. He is looking very tough in a soft split, though he still needs a good trip.  

    Race 6

    We will give Art Two D Two one more shot to come back on the grid after his productive trip two back, even though he has post 6 here and can get into similar trouble. Last week he was flat but he deserves another shot among these, where he will obviously be at long odds. 

    Race 7

    Code Word made a strong early move but settled for second best to the favorite. He may wake up big for this series here, even from post 6. Meanwhile, PH Jackpot, who closed hard from post 7 last week will be competitive from the 4 hole and merits attention.     

    Race 8

    Jk Camelot was strong while first over going after the leader but faded around the turn. He needs a better trip and may be perfectly placed in the catbird seat here.  

    Race 9

    The Foiled Again parade may continue but at a proposed 1-5 we need be wary. If you don’t aim to pass this one, look for Art Z to once again take advantage of a steaming pace and roll through the burned out few to win, perhaps at a better price than last week.  

    ‘Match’ Marvels


    The Blue Chip Matchmaker offers a quartet of miles on Friday’s Yonkers’ program, as the three-race skein of See You At Peelers takes a breath before being challenged. “Peelers” takes a week off from the series, leaving some betting promises on the bill.  

    In the first division, Naughtytiltheend was racing first over last week, showing spunk, but could not prevail. A perfect trip wins it for her.  

    The second division Hula’s Z Tam gets into the series late with a good post and must be respected.  

    The third Matchmaker mile is a battle of the inside pair, Ginger And Fred and Anndrovette. If they defeat one another with tiring exchanges, look for Arctic Fire N to win her first of the season at a good price in a tight, six-horse field.  

    The nightcap offers a good shot for Summer Snow. She made a strong first-over move last time out going after the leader. If she gets a pocket trip here, she will be in it.

    Cal Exotic

    The April 13 no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo could have the following contenders in the mix. Here they are, with comments, for your consideration.

    Leg 1
    (8) Wicked Beach got on the toteboard last week but should have won it for his many supporters. He may enjoy a better price winning from post 8, wince two inside of him could muster support. 

    Leg 2
    Three failed favorites from the week before show up in this field and yet it is (7) Bo Knows Power that looks the most promising. He finished third after a strong outside duel last week, posted at 9-1 and could be a very good price here. Single him to keep the price down and defy the obvious choices.

    Leg 3
    (7) Persuade Me had a tough start last week, finished fourth as the choice and deserves a big shot here. The faint possibility of (8) Nirvana Gold, 171-1 last week, raised a few eyebrows early in the mile as he fired a huge launch to the lead, though wide, and held a bit after that. If it was a warning sign, we saw it and add him to the ticket. 

    Leg 4
    (2) Big Guy Two Win was 13-1 and also fired big early to send up a flair for this week. (5) Hiho Legacy should be forgiven for failing at 2-1, just getting a piece of the purse, and be part of this conglomeration.  

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.