Showing posts with label Classic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Classic. Show all posts

  • Get to work! Breeders' Cup information overload begins now

    POSTED Oct 8, 2013 By Unknown
    Just one American Grade 1 race--the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes on Saturday, October 12, at Keeneland--stands between us and the Breeders' Cup World Championships on November 1-2 at Santa Anita Park.

     I.e., now that the horses are done preparing, it's time for horseplayers to get ready for American Thoroughbred racing's second-biggest weekend.

     There will be a lot of information presented to handicappers the next three weeks--including a fair amount by my employer, Brisnet.com--and admittedly you don't need to consume all of it or even most of it to gain an edge when wagering on the Breeders' Cup (or any race, really).

     But one collection of indispensable information for any day at the races is the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, which is now available for contenders of the Breeders' Cup races. Here's how it works:
    The Breeders' Cup contenders past performances appear under the "track" BREEDERS' CUP (ONLY) with the five Friday races in the "01" file and the nine Saturday races in the "02" file. The track code for these files is BCX.

     Access to each file costs the normal $3, so if you want contender PPs for all 14 races across both days, then it will cost you $6 retail (free if you're a Performance Plan member, $1 if you're a Gold member, etc). Breeders' Cup contenders data files are also available.

     Following your initial download, access to updates of these files--including the final pre-entry file released on Wednesday, October 23--are free. They will be updated daily through October 21. Then on October 23, the final BCX files will be uploaded, and this will be the last Breeders' Cup file until Monday, October 28, when the Santa Anita full-card past performances are available for November 1-2 (including program numbers, morning line, undercard races, etc.).

     Breeders' Cup contender/pre-entry Ultimate PPs will be a part of Brisnet.com's Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package, meaning if you buy contender PPs now you'll get a credit on the $25 package available next week. Also included in the package is a preview with handicapping insights and Breeders' Cup statistics, full-card Ultimate Past Performances, analysis on Europe-based runners as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson, Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report, and Derek Simon's Win Factor Report. All this has a retail value of $60 but will be available for $25.

     TwinSpires.com players receive the package for free when they wager at least $100 on the Breeders' Cup (total across both days)! And another piece of information TwinSpires.com players can use is access to FREE race replays for all American tracks, including marquee Breeders' Cup prep races.

     So enough about how to spend your money with Brisnet.com, let's talk about how all this data over the next few weeks can help you make money!

     As a multi-race wager lover, I try to get a sense of two things when I handicap full cards: 1) who are the most likely winners overall, and 2) where is the Mendoza Line for each race where competitiveness drops off?

     I pretty much do that with any card I'm looking at, but where the Breeders' Cup (and a few other big events like the Kentucky Derby) is different is that I've spent the last 6 months handicapping, watching, and reviewing these horses' races. That's not the case when looking at a Thursday at Keeneland.

     I already have a pretty good idea of how good these horses are. The variables now are how they match up against those who show up, how they're training, and post position. Balancing who to single and when to go deep is an essential part of my Breeders' Cup wagering strategy--a strategy I wish I had back in 2002!

     I'd never want to get married to a horse this far out, but pre-entry time is when a young handicapper's fancy turns to love, and careful study could help avoid that third-date let down of "You smoke?!!" or "You voted for Bush twice?"

     Unlike Derby, there's not a lot of cachet involved with picking Breeders' Cup winners in advance (in part, I'm sure, because you don't get paid extra for such thoughts as you do w/ Derby), so studying now is more about all the possible winners than THE winner. The summary page of the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances is a great cliffs notes for identifying stand outs and a range of competitiveness. Dank, for instance, looks great in the Filly & Mare Turf 

     The Brisnet.com Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package will be available on our special reports page beginning Wednesday, October 16, but contender Ultimate PPs are available now.

  • Game On Dude still the country's best horse

    POSTED Aug 26, 2013 By Unknown
    The results of this weekend's races--despite the favorite rolling in the Pacific Classic Stakes and an upset in the Travers--did nothing to change my thoughts on the championship picture for Horse of the Year and three-year-old male, respectively.
    Game On Dude is still in the Horse of the Year drivers seat by virtue of his third Grade 1 win--all at 1 1/4 miles and on three different surfaces. Wise Dan could have five Grade 1 wins by the end of the year, but it will be impossible to deny Game On Dude Eclipse Awards as Horse of the Year and champion older male if he finally gets his Breeders' Cup Classic (he'd have won both awards in 2011 or 2012 with a win in that race).

     I've had Game On Dude "ranked" on top since his Hollywood Gold Cup win, and he'll stay there unless he loses the Breeders' Cup.

     And Orb is still the top three-year-old male by virtue of his Kentucky and Florida Derby wins to go along with blacktype in the Belmont and Travers Stakes. Palace Malice remains in second with the Belmont and Jim Dandy wins, but is in a position of needing to win races to dethrone Orb. "Much the best" fourth-place finishes won't cut it--even in great races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup or Breeders' Cup Classic.

     Speaking of Palace Malice and the Travers, him rounding out the superfecta has to be the most celebrated fourth-place finish in the history of the Turf outside Jazil and Brother Derek dead heating for fourth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. I don't disagree that he was among the best in the race, but I don't think he was "much the best" nor do I think he'll never lose to his peers again.

     Orb (my pick) had absolutely no excuse considering the trip. He flattened and somehow held on for show (this description works well for his Belmont as well), but unlike the Belmont when he was a gassed horse racing for the sixth time in five months, he probably needed this race. I'm not giving up on him--especially if he shows up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in the 10-to-1 range.
    Will Take Charge ran well considering how he had to get there, and he ran fast. I guess all this praise of the winner, third-, and fourth-place finishers means I should love Moreno, too, but I'm just not sold.

     As for Will Take Charge's championship aspirations, it comes down to winning. I still have him behind Verrazano on the three-year-old depth chart. The Travers is a real nice race to win but that and the Rebel doesn't usurp a Wood Memorial-Haskell double, though another graded win probably would--especially if it comes against older.

     My America's Best Racing/ESPN poll for the week is:

     1. Game On Dude, 2. Wise Dan, 3. Royal Delta, 4. Cross Traffic, 5. Obviously, 6. Point of Entry, 7. Sahara Sky, 8. Fort Larned, 9. Flat Out, 10. Successful Dan.

     Biggest race this coming weekend is the Woodward.

  • Breeders' Cup Saturday--a narrower approach

    POSTED Nov 3, 2012 By Unknown
    Several of Steve Byk's guests this week said that Friday's card looked to be the more "formful" of the two Breeders' Cup days, and while there were two big surprises along the way--those surprises occurred in the races people probably most expected it: the Juvenile Sprint and Marathon.

     Sure, Royal Delta was the only favorite to win one of the six championships races, but Flotilla, Beholder, and Zagora hardly shocked the world. If the aforementioned guests are right, then we're in for some big prices today.

     I came into the weekend thinking Saturday was less tricky, however. That doesn't mean there won't be prices--of course there will be--but I do think horses like Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Wise Dan in the Mile, and Game On Dude in the Classic are going to run their races. Sometimes that's not good enough to win against World-Class competition, but they are not favorites I'm going against.

     I came into the week really wanting to dislike Game On Dude, but applying my handicapping principles shows he has an edge here. 9-to-5 is tough to get excited about, but I do like Brilliant Speed to run well, and hooking those two up in the exotics would spice things up nicely.

     I think the best chance for a price is in the Sprint where legitimate Grade 1-level horses will be going off at 10- or 20-to-1. Unfortunately, everyone else knows that, too, so a 20-to-1 doesn't necessarily play that high in multi-race wagers.

    All that said, legitimate surprises are required to really blow up a Pick 4, etc. I already mentioned Brilliant Speed as a horse I'll use. Treasure Beach is an overlay and could get lost in the Point of Entry-St. Nicholas Abbey din, so he's a high-priced "A" for me. I couldn't let Great Mills go at 20-to-1 in the Turf Sprint. He's just consistently fast enough to run with these. In the Juvenile Turf, Gervinho is undefeated, gets Bejarano, and closed like a freight train last out.

    Here is my ABC grid for today.

  • Breeders' Cup grand slam contest

    POSTED Nov 2, 2012 By Unknown
    Baseball season is over, and the grand slam wager is only offered on NYRA and New Mexico racing, but that doesn't mean you can't load the bases at this year's Breeders' Cup and hit a home run with this fun contest brought to you by TwinSpires.com & Brisnet.com! Our grand prize winner will receive $250 or $500 if s/he is a TwinSpires.com member!

    Former NYRA executive Bill Nader (now with the Hong Kong Jockey Club) invented the Grand Slam as a wager to appeal both to casual show players and to exotic players. The hybrid wager requires the bettor to select a horse to show in three consecutive races followed by a horse to win in the fourth race of the sequence.

     The Breeders' Cup has not been in New York since the Grand Slam wager debuted in spring 2006, so it's never been offered, but that does not mean we can't have some fun with the concept at this year's World Championships.

     To enter, simply input a horse to show in three separate races (load the bases) then select a horse to win the Breeders' Cup Classic for a grand slam). You can load the bases with horses from any of the 14 Breeders' Cup races preceding the Classic, but your win round selection must come in the Classic, and you cannot use a Classic horse to help load the bases.

     First tiebreaker: Highest win price of WIN round selection; second tiebreaker: highest show price of show round selections.

     Other prizes: In addition to the grand prize, all those TwinSpires.com or Brisnet.com members who successfully hit a grand slam will receive a $20 Brisnet.com credit.

     Fine print: One entry per e-mail address. To claim the TwinSpires.com grand prize the e-mail you enter this contest with must match an e-mail of a TwinSpires.com member. You do not need to be a member of either site to win the $250 cash prize. You do need to be a member of either TwinSpires.com or Brisnet.com (or both!) to claim the $20 product credit for hitting a grand slam.

    Click here to sign up for TwinSpires.com; click here to sign up for Brisnet.com.

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  • Breeders Cup 2012

    POSTED Nov 1, 2012 By Derek Simon
    If ever there was a case study as to why value wagering is important, the Breeders’ Cup is it. Played out in the classrooms of Belmont Park, Santa Anita, Churchill Downs and other venues, the Breeders’ Cup races demonstrate why Vince Lombardi would have made a terrible gambler. Winning isn’t the only thing — price matters.

    Hence, I implore handicappers to focus on finding viable contenders rather than “winners” on Nov. 2-3 at Santa Anita. In fact, by eliminating horses that can’t — or probably won’t — win and insisting on reasonable odds on the ones that can, the Breeders’ Cup can be a veritable ATM machine for value-oriented bettors.

    Consider this: Since 1999, playing my Win Factor Report (WFR) morning-line overlays has produced a 73.14% ROI, with nine (of 13) winning years.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The rules are simple and are detailed in my Win Factor Reports — which are offered as part of the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package at Brisnet.com.

    As for my thoughts on the BC Classic specifically, as well as some great stats on Lasix and the effect the ban of that drug in juvenile races might have, check out the video below:

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    Breeders’ Cup (Friday & Saturday)

    Selected Angle/Method Plays

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • BC Betting Bits

    POSTED Oct 26, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Blame Edges Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic
    Last week, I talked about the misguided notion that big wins lead to big Breeders’ Cup profits — they don’t — and, this week, I want to offer some other tantalizing tidbits about America’s premier showcase for thoroughbred racehorses.

    I’ll start with recent form.

    As I pointed out in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide, a decent last race is essential to BC success. How essential? Since 1999, only two horses — Daylami (1999 Turf) and Midnight Lute (2008 Sprint) — have won a Breeders’ Cup race with a Win Factor Report “Form Rating” of less than 20 percent.

    Horses – 97
    Winners (rate) – 2 (2.1%)
    Return (ROI) – $12.60 (-93.51%)  

    The Win Factor Report is a computerized fair odds line that I created, which will be available to Brisnet.com users when the final entries are known. However, it’s worth noting that, as of this writing, there were 41 potential BC entries with a Form Rating south of 20 percent — including several likely favorites or near-favorites.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Let’s move on to what I will call the “home team advantage.”

    It is little secret that, in most professional sports, the home team has a statistical advantage. In fact, a 2007 study conducted by Oliver Entine and     Dylan Small of the Department of Statistics at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, found that, in the NBA, home teams won nearly 61 percent of the time. In the NFL, the rate was 58 percent; in the NHL, 55 percent; and in Major League Baseball, 53 percent.

    Hence, the logical question: Does this home team advantage extend to thoroughbreds running over their "home track" in the Breeders’ Cup?

    The answer, it seems, is “yes.”

    In the past 13 years, horses that had their final prep at the track hosting the Breeders’ Cup event they were entered in have accumulated the following statistics:

    Horses – 179
    Winners (rate) – 19 (10.6%)*
    Return (ROI) – $457.50 (+27.79%)  

    Now, compare that to horses that last raced at a different track:

    Horses – 1,352
    Winners (rate) – 114 (8.4%)*
    Return (ROI) – $2,708.5 (+0.17%)  

    *There were 133 winners in 132 total races due to a dead-heat in the 2003 Turf.

    These latter numbers get even worse if the shipper’s last workout was also at a different venue:

    Horses – 895
    Winners (rate) – 78 (8.7%)
    Return (ROI) – $1,719.30 (-3.95%)  

    Given that horses are creatures of habit, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by opining that animals that recently handled conditions similar to those they will encounter at Santa Anita on Nov. 2-3 will probably (as a whole) perform better than those that did not.

    Toward this end, history teaches us that, in Breeders’ Cup competition, steeds that faced large fields last time — since 1999, the average BC field has consisted of 11.8 runners — do much better than those that faced just a handful of rivals, as the following statistics show:

    LAST RACE FIELD OF FIVE HORSES OR LESS

    Horses – 161
    Winners (rate) – 12 (7.5%)
    Return (ROI) – $136.40 (-57.64%)  

    LAST RACE FIELD OF 10 HORSES OR MORE

    Horses – 476
    Winners (rate) – 39 (8.2%)
    Return (ROI) – $995.30 (+4.55%)  

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    10/27/12 Woodbine Harness