Showing posts with label workouts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label workouts. Show all posts

  • Florida Derby Analysis & Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    POSTED Mar 28, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Great weekend of racing on tap! Below is a look at Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby, along with free handicapping reports for Fair Grounds:

    FLORIDA DERBY (GRADE I)
    3/29/14 Gulfstream Park (race 14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt).

    1-WILDCAT RED
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    Gutsy win in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 22, a race in which he battled with General A Rod throughout and prevailed by a head bob. So, the $1 million question is: Was there an early speed bias that day (as so many racing fans and pundits assert)?

    The stats are inconclusive.

    Yes, five of the six dirt races were won by the horse leading at the first call at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 22; however, three of those winners were favored — two quite heavily (even odds and 3-5).

    Still, there’s something else that concerns me about Wildcat Red. We know he’s quick — as a son of D’Wildcat, this is hardly unique — so what’s with the three-furlong drill on March 22? Statistically speaking, this is a huge no-no, particularly in route races (as the table below, culled from one of my databases of past race results, amply demonstrates):


    And don’t be fooled by the fast time of that workout — bullet works at three furlongs produced even worse results than non-bullet works (0.83 IV, 0.74 OBIV).


    2-MATADOR
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    His only win came on the grass and yielded a -13 late speed ration (LSR), which is awful. The blinkers go on today, but it’s hard to get too excited about this guy unless there is a complete pace meltdown.

    3-CAIRO PRINCE
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    The connections are strong, the breeding is strong and this colt hints at greater talent. The only issue I have is the 63-day layoff since his last start in the Holy Bull and the fact that his effort in that race was not as good as it looks on paper.

    Sure, Cairo Prince won that Jan. 25 Grade II affair by 5 ¾ lengths, but the resulting 98 Brisnet speed (BSF) figure and -8 LSR are only so-so.

    Is so-so good enough for a horse that is likely to be favored? I don’t think so.

    4-CONSTITUTION
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    If, in fact, Gulfstream Park featured a main-track early speed bias on Feb. 22, what does that say for this horse, who posted the highest, i.e. slowest, early speed ration (-1) on dirt in wiring the sixth race of the day?

    Granted, the son of Tapit appears to have a lot of upside, but, with Todd Pletcher listed as the trainer, all thoughts of value go down the proverbial drain.

    5-EAST HALL
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    On paper, this gelded son of Graeme Hall looks hopeless, but he’s recorded some LSRs that I think (perhaps foolishly) give him a puncher’s chance if the pace is unduly fast.

    6-GENERAL A ROD
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    Trainer Mike Maker has said this colt represents the “best chance I’ve ever had” to win the Kentucky Derby. Putting aside Maker’s abysmal record in the Run for the Roses for a second, it’s easy to see why the veteran conditioner is so enthusiastic.

    This son of Roman Ruler (I know, that’s a problem) has improved in every start and is as game as they get. Plus, I think he’s better suited to carry his speed than Wildcat Red, whom he dropped a narrow decision to in the Fountain of Youth. Check out the way he galloped out after that race:


    I suspect this guy will get lost in the betting — and he shouldn’t.

    7-ALLSTAR
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    Earned a 78 BSF and -16 LSR in capturing a cheap N1X allowance race at Calder last time. His presence in this race makes me think I should have held my own “pro day” in hopes of making it into the NFL… at the age of 46… with no discernable talent.

    8-SPOT
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    His running style is ideal, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about a closer that earned a -15 LSR in its latest outing. That said, any improvement puts this dude in the hunt.

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

    FREE Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    Fair Grounds has a fantastic card scheduled for Saturday, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby and Palace Malice’s return to the bayou in the New Orleans Handicap.

    Below are links to some FREE reports:

    Win Factor Report
    Pace Profile Report

  • Introducing the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping package!

    POSTED Oct 21, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the most common lamentations surrounding the build up to the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup World Championships races is that handicappers are susceptible to information overload.

    When it comes to good handicapping information, I'm of the school of thought that too much is never enough, but the key word there is "good" because one piece of bad information can negate all the handicapping you've done with otherwise good information. Think of it as a recipe. Fresh ingredients make the best goulash, but one rotten tomato can really mess you up.

    The main ingredient to your handicapping can mess you up as much as it can help if the ingredient is bad to begin with. I'm primarily a speed figure guy, but that doen't mean I'll handicap with any set of figures any more than I'd use sour milk to bake a cake. If that were the only dairy available then I'd skip the baking altogether.

    And so it should go with other information such as workout reports, analysis of European imports, and past performance data to help you establish class.

    The people who do this on a Tuesday in February should be the same ones you trust for the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, and that was the thought process behind putting together the brisnet.com Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package, which features Ultimate Past Performances, historical data applied to wagering strategies, workout analysis, European form reports, and full-card analysis for both days of racing at Churchill Downs.

    This is information packaged for Breeders' Cup but done by people who do this work all year, and that's the key for me.

    In each of the past nine years I've spent the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup in the stable area watching horses prepare for the big races, and inevitably people ask me how certain horses looked, and I have no answer for them because I'm not an assessor of horseflesh. It's a tremendous talent that is equal parts innate and learned, and I have neither of those parts, so I leave that type of evaluation to those more experienced--people such as Jude Feld, who is doing that work for brisnet.com this year.

    I enjoy European racing but don't follow it nearly enough to discuss the vagaries of class among its top stars. Past performances help me gauge their speed, but their overall form requires a more attentive perspective that Alan Shuback will provide brisnet.com readers this year.

    This is not overload but news I can use. When dealing with a finite bankroll to bet contentious races that produce overlaid payoffs, the fine line decisions on whether to single, include, or toss a horse from certain segments of a bet make all the difference, and good information leads to better decision making.