Showing posts with label Fort Larned. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fort Larned. Show all posts

  • North American Thoroughbred Horse Racing Standings

    POSTED Oct 1, 2013 By Unknown
    After five seasons of meaningless fall baseball, the Cleveland Indians used a September surge to reach the playoffs, and the final week of the season was filled with "what if" scenarios involving wins and losses of not only the Indians but also the other teams in contention.

     Talk of standings and magic numbers is part of the fun of the pennant race, and it's part of what makes Breeders' Cup prep season so much fun as well. I'm not a big fan of points systems in racing to determine championships (places in a starting gate Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands-style A-OK, natch), but standings I do believe in.

     To that end, there is the weekly poll from America's Best Racing, which like Eclipse Award voting itself, does not provide much in the way of guidelines for voters other than basing rankings on who you expect could be Horse of the Year, but what qualifies as a Horse of the Year season/candidate is completely up to the voter.

     There's some overlap among members of the National Turf Writers And Broadcasters and the ABR poll. NTWAB members do vote for Eclipse Awards but not all ABR poll members do. This is a good thing based on the votes of some who seem to lack any perspective for what makes certain races more difficult to win than others, but that's a topic for another time.

     The matter at hand with one major Breeders' Cup prep weekend remaining and the Breeders' Cup World Championships now only weeks away is who can win a championship and who can't.

     HORSE OF THE YEAR:
    1. Game On Dude: The title is his if he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic regardless of what any other horse does. The Big Cap, Gold Cup, Pacific Classic, BC Classic four bagger would be impossible to deny even if Wise Dan wins out.

     2. Wise Dan: He's on pace for a better year this year than last year but like last year, needs a Game On Dude loss in Classic and a Breeders' Cup win to get Horse of the Year honors.

     3. Princess of Sylmar: She won't get my vote regardless, but the drum is beating for her to get Horse of the Year honors if both Game On Dude and Wise Dan lose Breeders' Cup, which seems unfair to me considering A) the onus is on more accomplished horses to do something she's not being asked to do, and B) she ran in races all year in which neither Game On Dude nor Wise Dan could compete. But, if the top two falter on November 2 then I could see her getting the prize. Assuming Wise Dan wins the Shadwell on Saturday at Keeneland, I'd vote for him under such a scenario with 4 Grade 1 and 2 Grade 2 wins. Obviously if Princess of Sylmar ends up in the Classic and wins then she's Horse of the Year regardless of what Wise Dan does.

     I can't see any one besides one of these three horses winning Horse of the Year unless Royal Delta's connections call an audible and run in (and win) the Classic.

     CHAMPION OLDER MALE:
    1. Game On Dude is in the driver's seat here with 3 Grade 1 wins already. A good placing in the Breeders' Cup (without even winning) might be enough to secure the championship

     2. Many tied with one Grade 1 each. I guess if Fort Larned, Ron The Greek, Alpha, Mucho Macho Man, or Cross Traffic wins the Classic then that might be enough to usurp Game On Dude since they'd be one of only two multiple Grade 1 winners in the division with a head to head score against Game On Dude.

     3. Wise Dan: He won champion older male last year, which I thought was overkill. I voted for Fort Larned but prefered even Game On Dude to Wise Dan in this category last year. Turf and Horse of the Year is enough.

     CHAMPION OLDER FEMALE:
    1. Royal Delta: Having only two Grade 1 wins isn't ultra impressive, but the only females better than her are her juniors Princess of Sylmar and Beholder, so it's tough to look past her, and any older female who wins the Breeders' Cup still wouldn't have the resume Royal Delta has this year because she's already defeated horses like Authenticity.

     CHAMPION THREE-YEAR-OLD MALE
    1. Orb. I think I'm in the minority here, but even after all the racing since the Triple Crown season ended, he's still one of only two three-year-olds with multiple Grade 1 wins, and one of those two came in the most prestigious race in the world. He's on top for now, but his lead is tenuous.

     2. Palace Malice: Has the most upside, and any respectable performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic puts him ahead of Orb, but as of right now I have to go with the multiple G1 wins that include the big one on top.

     3. Will Take Charge: Similar situation as Palace Malice. A Classic win certainly gets it done for him as champion and maybe a solid second behind Game On Dude as well (Farda Amiga-style from 2002). I definitely view Belmont+Jim Dandy as better than Travers + PA Derby, and PM holds the head to head edge as well.

     4. Verrazano: If he were to win a Breeders' Cup race then he'd have three Grade 1 wins, and he'd get my nod over either Palace Malice or Will Take Charge with only one each. But since PM or WTC control their own destiny, I have V behind them.

     CHAMPION THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY
    1. Princess of Sylmar: Her connections did a very sporting thing by taking on the champion older female for less money, and I'm willing to reward that with a championship following a season that also includes three other Grade 1 wins against her own generation. People are clamoring for a rematch with Beholder, but Princess of Sylmar's connections should feel no obligation to do so considering they were running in the summer when Beholder was on the shelf and coming back in a race that makes Uncle Mo's Timely Writer look like the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. The rematch can come next year.

     2. Beholder: My mind is made up on Princess of Sylmar, but Beholder would probably get some love if she were to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff, which would tie the Grade 1 score at 4 apiece and give Beholder a 2-1 edge in G1s not restricted by age. BUT Princess of Sylmar has the head to head edge in a $1-million race and won at a 1 1/4 miles. The only tricky thing would be if Beholder wins a fifth Grade 1 in a race like the Cigar Mile or La Brea to close out the year.

     CHAMPION MALE TURF
    1. Wise Dan: This is one category that could be settled by Breeders' Cup no matter what, as Wise Dan could win his fourth Grade 1 among six graded stakes victories this weekend, and I can't see anything topping that among turf males regardless of what happens at Breeders' Cup. If he loses both starts to end his year, though, then that opens the door for a Breeders' Cup victor to sneak in the award.
    t2. Point of Entry: Remember him? He beat eventual Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom to start the year then ducked rain, Wise Dan, or both on Derby day before returning with a Manhattan win. He's one of the very best when right, and a Turf victory would give him three Grade 1 wins--same as Wise Dan if that one were to lose out.
    t2. Big Blue Kitten: Two Grade 1 wins and a narrow loss in a third has him right there as well with a Breeders' Cup win and Wise Dan losses.
    4. Little Mike. A Breeders' Cup Turf win would give him two Grade 1 wins this year, which probably isn't enough against Wise Dan's three, but he'd probably get some support, and his owner might run him back again anyway! 

     CHAMPION FEMALE TURF
    1. Laughing: Slight edge to the East Coast talent here with two Grade 1 wins, but this is absolutely one race that will come down to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Still, if chaos reigns then Laughing would be the one to get it.
    2. Tiz Flirtatious: Has just the one Grade 1 win, but two other graded stakes put her in a position for the Eclipse with a Breeders' Cup win
    t2. Marketing Mix: Similar boat to Tiz Fliratious with just the one Grade 1 win, but she's beaten males and a Breeders' Cup gets it done for her.
    t2. Dank: Won the Beverly D. in very impressive fashion and somewhat out of site/mind since. But she's targeting the BC and a win would get her the championship without a doubt.
    5. The Fugue: I have her so far down because I think any of the above four winning a Breeders' Cup race would make them champion even if The Fugue were to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. However, if one of the above four falters and The Fugue wins the Turf then she'd get the championship.
    t5. Moonlight Cloud: The same could be said for Moonlight Cloud if she were to win the Mile. I have her tied with The Fugue because I'm not sure which direction people would lean if both win and the top four all lose.

     SPRINTERS & 2yo of either sex
    All four of these divisions will come down to the Breeders' Cup.

     For more insight into Breeders' Cup prep season, check out the Brisnet.com Bullet Train to the Breeders' Cup video below w/ me and Sean Feld

  • pace in your face with a can of mace

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?"

     "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for six furlongs. A closer five lengths off that pace would have to come home in :23 for a chance, and that's no easy task.

     As countless handicapping books have told me (and by countless, I mean I'm too lazy to count them, not that it's an infinite number), the idea that most closers (on dirt) run faster late than early is an illusion. I won't say most horses do their "best" running early, but it's certainly the fastest part of the race more often than not, which is why so-called speed biases have more to do with the animals contesting the race than the surface itself, but I digress because that's off the topic of Mucho Macho Man and Lea winning the Woodward and Forego Stakes (links to FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances), respectively, on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course--the summer place to be celebrating 150 years of aristocratic merriment in the foothill of the Adirondack Mountains.
    Mucho Macho Man likes fighting for lead
    Admittedly, Mucho Macho Man is a bit of a price play, as I don't see him as the most likely winner of the race, but I do see him as likely a winner of the other obvious horses (in alphabetical order) Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan (Alpha & Ron The Greek can beat me). So if your fair odds on Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan are 3-to-1 then Mucho Macho Man figures nicely at 4-to-1 (that leaves a 19-to-1 chance that either of "can beat me" horses actually beat me).

     So what does Mucho Macho Man have to do to win? Well, he's done it six times in his career, and every time he's been either on the lead or in second place after the first quarter mile. Put another way, he's winless in nine starts when not first or second after a quarter mile and 6-for-15 when in that position.

     Can he be there on Saturday in the Woodward? The Brisnet.com pace figures easily say yes. With Fort Larned out, Paynter and Mucho Macho Man are tied for the best early pace last race figure. Early pace measures from the start to the first call, and it's several points back to Flat Out and the rest.

     Like most high-class animals racing in quality races, Mucho Macho Man goes faster for the first six furlongs than he does for the first half mile. His E2 pace rating (start to second call) was 109 last time, but that's not even close to what he's capable of. When he won the Suburban last year he popped a 100 through half a mile and then a 117 through six furlongs and kept on going.

     I'm betting on the come here, because there is no guarantee he'll keep on going this time, but I do think there's a better than 20% chance that he does, and that makes him a good play.

     Take a look at the race summary below and check out how Mucho Macho Man stacks up against the rest in average and best pace. Is he a standout? No, but considering the prices I think he's the obvious bet.

    The Forego is a different situation, as I'm playing against the speed in this race, but I don't think Lea is as much of a stretch as everyone else.

    Lea was everyone's sexy pick to upset Horse of the Year Wise Dan in both the Firecracker and Fourstardave Handicaps. He was 9-to-2 in both attempts and never really threatened the dual champion with a now-eight-race winning streak. He'll be at least double (and more likely triple) that price in the Forego with a lot of positive angles in play, including going turf to dirt on the cut back.

     It's also worth noting that his best race came in a one-turn dirt affair. Granted, that was off the turf on a sloppy track, but there is no reason to think that Lea can't fulfill his promise with a Grade 1 win here.

     WAGERING STRATEGY: I'll play Lea across the board. There's no reason to get cute in exotics when he'll be a square price and you'll get paid just for hitting the board. As for the Woodward, Mucho Macho Man is a win-place candidate.

     As for multiple-race wagers, there's an all-graded-stakes Pick 3 that begins with the Bernard Baruch, and Silver Max is a single for me in there and a win bet at odds of 8-to-5 or better (I'll single him down to even money). I'll play him with ALL in the Forego and the aforementioned quartet in the Woodward for $32. I'll also give myself a chance to really by right by playing Silver Max-Lea and Lea-Mucho Macho Man doubles.

     Good luck!

  • To Rate Or Not to Rate

    POSTED Jul 4, 2013 By Derek Simon
    On my latest podcast, I discussed the merits — or, rather, the lack thereof — of “rating” certain types of horses. I explained that some animals simply aren’t effective when their natural speed is throttled and I used Fort Larned as an example.
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    I pointed out that “seven of his nine career wins have come when he has been second or better — meaning first — at the first call. All nine of his career wins have come when he’s been third or better.”

    “Why in the world would you ever rate this horse further off the pace,” I asked?

    It’s a question worth pondering.

    According to Pat Cumming of Trackus, in his now-legendary riderless romp in the Gulfstream Park Handicap on March 19, Fort Larned ran the opening half-mile in 44.29 seconds, which equates to a -14 early speed ration, or ESR (my own measurement of early energy expenditure). And, by the way, because my pace figures are relative, it doesn’t matter that Fort Larned earned this figure sans jockey.

    Now, here’s the thing: My database studies reveal that just 9.1 percent of all races feature an ESR of -14 or less. Yet, Fort Larned has failed to be among the top three at the first call in eight of the 21 races he completed with a jockey on his back.

    Read that again.

    In eight of 21 races, Fort Larned, a horse capable of a -14 ESR, has failed to crack the top three at the first call. How can this possibly be?

    It’s because he’s been rated (taken off the pace in order to “conserve his energy”). How effective has this been?

    I’m glad you asked (I know you didn’t, but just play along). Prior to Nov. 27, 2011, Fort Larned was fourth or worse at the first call in six of his nine races — he won two of those events; since that time, he has been fourth or worse at the first call in just two of 12 races (not counting the Gulfstream Park Handicap) — he has triumphed in seven of those contests, including five graded affairs (three Grade 1’s).

    Given his desire to run free, it comes as little surprise to me that Fort Larned is not great on the green. You see, turf requires precisely what Fort Larned doesn’t have — the ability to rate and finish. My database shows that nearly 2/3 (66.4 percent to be exact) of all turf races feature a moderate-to-soft pace (-5 ESR or greater).

    Is it any wonder that Fort Larned is one-for-five on the grass?

    Of course, jockeys play a huge part in the pace equation too and, without passing judgment (wink, wink), it’s interesting to peruse the riding records of Fort Larned’s two most recent — and most prolific — passengers:

    * Brian Hernandez (8 mounts, 5 wins).
    * Julien Leparoux (5 mounts, 1 win).

    So, the next time you see a frontrunner rating on the lead through dawdling fractions or pressing the pace three-wide, be comforted, it happens to the best of them.

    Just ask Fort Larned.

    Pace Profile Play of the Day

    As many of you already know, I have launched a new Web site (SimonSpeedRations.com) dedicated to understanding my pace figures and promoting world peace… although I’m concentrating primarily on the former because I feel it’s more important.

    Toward that end, I produced a video that includes a couple of free plays (one already lost, so by delaying the release of this column, I’ve saved many of you from financial ruin) and a lot of discussion about ESRs, LSRs and other issues affecting the nation.

     Take a look:


    By the way, my Pace Profile Report and Win Factor Report are now available for purchase. Click HERE for more details.

    SimonSays Racing Podcast on TwinSpires Radio



  • A Computerized Look at Horse of the Year

    POSTED Jan 4, 2013 By Derek Simon
    There’s an unwritten rule in gambling and politics that to get at the truth one needs only to “follow the money.”

    Popularized in the 1976 Academy Award-winning film “All the President’s Men,” the phrase was supposedly uttered by Deep Throat, the anonymous source that helped Washington Post reporters Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward unearth the Watergate Scandal. In truth — or at least according to the book of the same name — Deep Throat never actually said “follow the money” or even “show me the money,” but, hey, it’s still a great quote.

    In sporting circles, of course, the notion of following the money typically refers to the betting. After all, it is little secret that betting lines and pari-mutuel pools are generally efficient — certainly more so than polls and voting contests… which brings me to this year’s Horse of the Year award.

    While I appreciate that Horse of the Year means different things to different people, I wondered what the odds might look like should the top contenders for the award actually meet on the racetrack. Now, I’m aware that such a meeting would not necessarily prove which horse is best — a single race rarely does – but at the very least it would give one an idea as to who the public thought was best.

    Unfortunately, I can’t tell you how the public would have wagered on a Horse of the Year contest… I know, I know, I dangle the carrot and then I yank it away. However, I can show you what my computerized fair odds line looks like (the carrot has returned).

    Let’s start with some ground rules:

    1) Our mythical race is 1-1/8 miles long. Yes, I know that 10 furlongs is considered a “classic” distance and is, perhaps, a more logical choice. However, I wanted to find a middle ground for the milers like Wise Dan and the marathon runners like Little Mike.

    2) All the horses will be rated on their current, year-ending form and assumed to be coming into the race on equal rest, with the exception of I’ll Have Another, who was retired with an injury prior to the Belmont Stakes in June and, therefore, get an “unknown” (UK) Win Factor Rating.

    So, with that out of the way, the winner of the 2013 Horse of the Year award, based on ability and current form, is (drum roll please)…

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    I’ve got to admit, even though the rankings above are computer-derived, I can’t argue very much with them. I do, in fact, think Wise Dan is the most talented of the Horse-of-the-Year contenders and, regardless of the front-speed bias that many believed aided Fort Larned in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there is no denying that his effort in that event was superb. I also think that the gap between him and I’ll Have Another is justified.

    Of course, I expect that Groupie Doll’s fans will balk at the fact that my Win Factor Report ranks her last among the Horse of the Year candidates, but personally I think that’s fair. Remember, our mythical race is at nine — not six or seven — furlongs and Groupie Doll was 0-for-3 routing in 2012. In fact, the daughter of Bowman’s Band has never won beyond a mile.

    As for Wise Dan on top, that makes perfect sense to me. As I’ve stated numerous times before, I think he is a great talent and a horse proven over multiple surfaces and at multiple distances. What’s not to like?

    We’ll find out on Jan. 19.

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    01/05/13 Gulfstream Park (GP)
    01/05/13 Santa Anita Park (SA)  
    01/05/13 Tampa Bay Downs (TAM)

  • Little Mike as Horse of the Year

    POSTED Jan 1, 2013 By Unknown
    I said it once, and I'll say it again: It's a shame that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta put together their best seasons in the same year (2009) because either campaign was so much better than anything we've seen since, and both stack up well to the very best campaigns of the 21st century (Mineshaft in 2003, Saint Liam in 2005, Invasor in 2006, & Curlin in 2007).

     I don't know which has been more diluted in recent years: The Horse of the Year award or the Breeders' Cup Classic's influence on it. A Classic winner hasn't gone on to win Horse of the Year since the aforementioned Curlin in 2007, and that streak is likely to continue this year with Fort Larned unlikely to get the necessary support, though I did vote him second for Horse of the Year and first among older males.

     All that said, it is Horse of the Year, and someone has to win. That someone is Little Mike whose treble of the Breeders' Cup Turf, Arlington Million, and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic trumps what any other horse accomplished this year.

     I try to remain consistent in how I vote for the award--especially given there has been no slam dunk since 2006-2007 when both Invasor and Curlin, respectively, were obvious choices. My recent HotY votes have gone to Curlin (2008), Rachel Alexandra (2009), Blame (2010), and Cape Blanco (2011), but I certainly understood why people leaned in Zenyatta's direction in 2009 and toward Havre de Grace in 2011.
    Why weren't they the choices for me those years? Well, the big thing I remember going back to was asking myself, "Which races would I most like to win?" The owner accepts equine Eclipse Awards, so I think it's a fair question to ask with the caveat that I disqualify the Derby from answering this question since everyone wants to win the Derby, but I don't think its winner should be Horse of the Year every year.

     In the case of 2012, I thought Little Mike put together the campaign I would most want as an owner: A Grade 1 on Derby day, the Arlington Million, and the Breeders' Cup Turf are tremendous prizes, and that they came at distances ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/2 miles while shipping all over the country makes it all the more impressive.

     Little Mike has some marks against him, of course. Some of the losses were downright bad, and it's fair to say that Wise Dan dominated the Mile division more than Little Mike did his division, but I'm big on Grade 1 wins, and I like Little Mike's wins at that level better.

     All three of my Horse of the Year finalists (Little Mike, Fort Larned, and Wise Dan) are returning for 2013, and with Wise Dan pointing to the Classic this could certainly be his year. Point of Entry was too good not to get a championship, but if Zenyatta could be denied HotY in 2009 then Point of Entry can deal with it in 2012.

     My complete list of Eclipse Award selections: 
    Horse of the Year: 1st - Little Mike, 2nd - Fort Larned, 3rd - Wise Dan 
    Two-Year-Old Male: 1st - Shanghai Bobby, 2nd - Uncaptured, 3rd - Violence 
    Two-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Beholder, 2nd - Executiveprivilege, 3rd - Dreaming of Julia
    Three-Year-Old Male: : 1st - I'll Have Another, 2nd - Bodemeister, 3rd - Dullahan 
    Three-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Questing, 2nd - Lady of Shamrock, 3rd - Grace Hall 
    Older Male: 1st - Fort Larned, 2nd - Game On Dude, 3rd - Shackleford 
    Older Female: 1st - Royal Delta, 2nd - Love And Pride, 3rd - Include Me Out 
    Male Sprinter: 1st - Trinniberg, 2nd - Shackleford, 3rd - Emcee 
    Female Sprinter: 1st - Groupie Doll, 2nd - Mizdirection, 3rd - Dust And Diamonds 
    Male Turf Horse: 1st - Little Mike, 2nd - Wise Dan, 3rd - Point of Entry 
    Female Turf Horse: 1st - Zagora, 2nd - Tapitsfly, 3rd - Marketing Mix 
    Steeplechase Horse: 1st - abstain, 2nd - abstain, 3rd - abstain 
    Owner: 1st - Oxley, John, 2nd - Reddam, J. Paul, 3rd - Fink, Morton 
    Breeder: 1st - Fink, Morton, 2nd - Fred & William "Buff" Bradley, 3rd - Jones, Brereton 
    Jockey: 1st - Dominguez, Ramon, 2nd - Velazquez, John, 3rd - Smith, Mike 
    Apprentice Jockey: 1st - abstain, 2nd - abstain, 3rd - abstain 
    Trainer: 1st - Romans, Dale, 2nd - Mott, Bill, 3rd - Pletcher, Todd

  • 2012 Breeders' Cup: What We Learned

    POSTED Nov 9, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Wise Dan (courtesy of Bloodhorse)
    For months, the anticipation builds. Every impressive winner instantly becomes a Breeders’ Cup candidate; every race becomes a prep for the big event.

    Then, faster than one can peruse the “skills” section of Kim Kardashian’s resume, the Breeders’ Cup is over.

    And that is when the real fun begins. That is when the handwringing starts and the whining over terrible trips continues; when both the gloating and the grousing match the resonance frequency of insanity; when I offer my final observations of Breeders’ Cup 2012. 

    So let's get to it...

    JUVENILE SPRINT

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    Hightail – D. Wayne Lukas’ charge was a maiden entering the Juvenile Sprint and a Breeders’ Cup winner after it. True, the Brisnet speed figure (97) was nothing to get the pulse racing, but the -4 late speed ration (LSR) that the son of Mineshaft was the best such dirt number over the course of the entire BC weekend.

    Merit Man – Although he lost at odds of 1-2, Merit Man gave me the impression that, despite his breeding, he might actually enjoy more ground, as he earned a positive pace profile in the Juvenile Sprint.

    JUVENILE FILLIES

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    Beholder – Not sure Beholder’s reputation was enhanced by her 1-length score in the Juvenile Fillies, but she sure didn’t harm it any. Not only did the daughter of Henny Hughes show she could motor early (-11 ESR), she also demonstrated she could finish OK (-10 LSR).

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    Executiveprivilege – This gal had every chance to run down the winner and simply couldn’t do it. She deserves a shot to redeem herself, of course, but I doubt redemption was on the docket when she went to post as the 3-2 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies.

    Dreaming of Julia – Her LSRs have been poor in general and this race (-15) was no exception. On the plus side, the Todd Pletcher trainee did come from further off the pace than usual.

    Kauai Katie – Ran reasonably fast early (-9) ESR, but backed up like a single toilet at a chili cook-off (-17 LSR).

    FILLY & MARE TURF

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    Zagora – Mare was 1-for-5 in Grade I company prior to annexing the Filly & Mare Turf, but appears to be getting better with age. She recorded a 98 Brisnet speed figure and +4 LSR in her BC win.

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    Nahrain – Second in the 2011 edition of this race, Nahrain never ran a step this year, finishing 10th, beaten by 6 ½ lengths.

    LADIES CLASSIC

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    Mike Smith – Contrary to popular opinion, I think Smith’s decision to put Royal Delta on the lead was brilliant.

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    Grace Hall – Although I think her nine-length defeat can be explained (she just regressed), Grace Hall certainly looked like the equine version of Mr. Hyde in the Ladies Classic.

    Awesome Feather – From undefeated to awful in one race; reminiscent of Royal Delta in the Suncoast Stakes last year.

    FILLY & MARE SPRINT

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    The entire field outside of Groupie Doll – I know I’ll probably get some flak for saying this, but, impressive as she’s been, I’m just not convinced that Groupie Doll has been beating much. In the Filly & Mare Sprint every horse excluding the winner recorded a “poor” LSR (-15 or less), yet the race ESR (pace) was just a -5. Turbulent Descent looks like her best days are behind her; Switch is a shell of her former self…

    To me, the F&M Sprint was simply a case of a good horse beating a bunch of bad horses.

    DIRT MILE

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    Tapizar – If Grace Hall was this year’s Mr. Hyde, this guy was Dr. Jekyll. After getting smoked in the Grade II Kelso — the worst defeat of his career in terms of beaten lengths (20 ¾) — Tapizar rebounded like Dennis Rodman in the Dirt Mile, scoring by 2 ¼ lengths and recording an excellent -4 LSR.

    Rail Trip – There’s life in those seven-year-old legs after all.

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    Fed Biz – I liked this guy and he ran like the contents of a litter box.

    JUVENILE

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    Shanghai Bobby – Son of Harlan’s Holiday made Hansen’s victory in 2011 look like Secretariat’s Belmont. Yeah, “Bobby” went (very) fast early (-16 ESR), but he finished like Detroit Tigers. Can he win the Derby in 2013? Maybe the Pennsylvania Derby, like his daddy, but that one in Kentucky could be a bit of a problem unless he improves drastically over the winter.

    Power Broker – The -22 LSR he earned in this race says it all.

    TURF

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    Little Mike – He can rate going a distance of ground. Who knew?

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    Dullahan – Ran true to his name, finishing 9th with a -6 LSR.

    SPRINT

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    Trinniberg – One of the few big-priced winners that I really liked. This son of Teufelsberg showed he could rate off the pace — something he was unable to do earlier in the year — in his final prep at Parx and did so again in the Sprint, allowing Sum of the Parts to lead after a quarter-mile in :21-2/5. If he stays in training I expect he’ll have a say in the 2013 BC Sprint as well.

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    Amazombie – Ran like one. The 7-2 favorite after winning last year’s Sprint, Amazombie was never a factor last weekend.

    MILE

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    Wise Dan – Showed why many believe he should be Horse of the Year. Facing a field that included top Euro imports Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud, Wise Dan pulled away with ease to win by 1 ½ lengths at the wire.

    Animal Kingdom – Ran much better than I expected and covered nine furlongs more than Wise Dan did according to Trakus (actually, I’m not sure if it was that much more, but to hear some folks tell it, it was close). Look, I don’t think the ground that Animal Kingdom lost was the decisive factor in last Saturday’s Mile, but it certainly didn’t help his chances.

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    Moonlight Cloud – Didn’t exactly flatter Black Caviar, did she?

    CLASSIC

    Upgrades

    Fort Larned – This fella is much better than he’s given credit for. Not only was the 114 Brisnet speed figure he earned in the Classic the best among all BC winners, his -5 LSR was very good as well.

    Mucho Macho Man – Raced off of a layoff and performed admirably, finishing second, 6 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher Flat Out.

    Chantal Sutherland – If you thought Sutherland’s ride on Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic was bad, it looked like pure genius next to Rafael Bejarano’s effort on that same horse in the BC Classic — at least if you listened to Bob Baffert after the race.

    Downgrades

    Game On Dude – The “Dude” may have abided, but he certainly didn’t run last weekend. After a slight bobble at the start, Bob Baffert’s stable star was the very definition of a non-factor in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup finale.

    To Honor And Serve – Neither honored nor served bettors anything other than massive disappointment in the Classic.

    Alpha – I can’t wait to see this horse next year… he should be finishing the Classic by February 2nd if my calculations are correct.


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    Weekend Win Factor Report 'Weak Favorites'
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