Showing posts with label Bullet Train. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bullet Train. Show all posts

  • Weekend roundup: Horse of the Year down to Game On Dude, Princess of Sylmar

    POSTED Oct 7, 2013 By Unknown
    Besides Silver Max, the biggest winners from Wise Dan's loss in the Shadwell Turf Mile (run at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack) were Game On Dude and Princess of Sylmar, who are now the last two standing in a Horse of the Year debate that lost last year's winner of that award when he had no excuse in the aforementioned race.

     Yes, it was moved off the turf, and he covered more ground than the winner, but if I were willing to count a win in the race in Wise Dan's favor, then I have to count a loss against him--at least as far as Horse of the Year goes; Wise Dan is still in the turf male driver's seat.

     A win would have given Wise Dan Grade 1 wins on two surfaces (turf and Polytrack) and three distances (1, 1 1/16, and 1 1/8 miles) this year. I'm still not sure that would have been enough to usurp Game On Dude if that one wins the Classic, but would have provided more food for thought. Now it's all Game On Dude with a win.

     *I* will not be voting this way, but my feel for the electorate tells me that Game On Dude wins Horse of the Year with a Classic win and Princess of Sylmar gets it if he loses.

     For that reason, I see no reason for Princess of Sylmar to run again this year--especially if she's running as a four-year-old. Yeah, Beholder could make things interesting with a win in the Distaff, but Princess of Sylmar had the better complete season. The Classic makes some sense if you want to win *my* vote, but since I don't think that will be required why bother?

     While I think Princess of Sylmar has earned champion three-year-old filly and have no problem with her being done for the year in doing so, I do have an issue with the idea that Game On Dude needs to win the Breeders' Cup or Princess of Sylmar gets it because that implies that Princess of Sylmar has had the better season to date. Yes, the Grade 1 score is 4-3, but Game On Dude's hat trick is in open races. Does anyone really think Game On Dude wouldn't have won the Beldame if he had been in there?

     But Princess of Sylmar did win it, beating two-time Eclipse Award winner Royal Delta in the process and kicking off a different kind of hat trick for this year's three-year-old fillies. There are three Grade 1 prep races for the Breeders' Cup Distaff, and the sophomores bested their elders in all three of them: Princess of Sylmar in the Beldame, Beholder in the Zenyatta, and Emollient in the Spinster. I'd be hard-pressed to think of a three-year-old male that could have won any of those races.

     This type of success is not limited to the States, either, as it was the three-year-old filly Treve who beat males and elders in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday at Longchamp. She is the third of that age and sex to do so in the past six years, which to me debunks the thought that "weight doesn't matter" considering three-year-old fillies receive 11 pounds from older males.

     To WEIGH in on which three-year-old filly has impressed you most, take the Brisnet.com The Handicapper's Edge poll. I chose Princess of Sylmar.

     As for the two-year-olds, I'll let this week's Bullet Train Breeders' Cup Platform presented by Brisnet.com address those races.

  • Bullet Train Pulls Into Derby Station

    POSTED Apr 30, 2013 By Unknown
    One thing about the new Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands points system: the buzz it generated certainly outweighed its practical use.

    With a projected field of 19-20 entrants, there was no need for a mechanism to determine preference among 21-24 entries because all entries will be able to start.

    That's not to say it didn't serve a purpose, though: Handle and interest in Derby Championship Series races (the 85- and 170-point races) was definitely up, and even for an "insider", the points system made it easier to follow the Derby trail. No more worrying about what a fifth-place finish paid in races that had no business being Derby preps (e.g. the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

    Hopefully the connections of future Derby hopefuls learned something, too, because I think many got psyched out by the specter of needing a certain number of points (some predicted as many as 50!) to reach the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and any horse with more than 6 points could bump Fear The Kitten from this year's field.

    Following the Florida Derby, champion Shanghai Bobby had earned 24 points, and many thought that wouldn't be near enough to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. His connections decided he would get some time off, but I wonder if they're ruing a missed opportunity now, as Shanghai Bobby easily would have made the field.

    I was right about the number of points (or lack thereof) needed to get in the Derby, including thinking weeks ago that more than 20 might not even enter, but I was wrong about who would have the most points. That is, I didn't think the top points-getters would also be the wagering favorites, but that's definitely the case with 150-point earners Orb and Verrazano, who I see as first and second choice, respectively.


    Going forward, it will be interesting to see which points-related statistics the industry and fans gravitate toward. Certainly they will help define key prep races year to year, but will records for most points by a trainer, jockey, sire, etc. enter the lexicon? What is the reasonable number of maximum points? 190? Will a filly try an open points race next year?

    In this regard, the points system is superior to the graded stakes earnings scheme. History is being made before our eyes; we're just still waiting for the first horse to be excluded on points.

  • Waiting for a star not to fall

    POSTED Apr 9, 2013 By Unknown
    On Monday night/Tuesday morning I dreamed that Team Valor International bought Verrazano because--according to the press release--founder and Chief Executive Officer Barry Irwin thinks the More Than Ready colt is the Messiah.

    I don't know what the price was, but I have to imagine it was a hefty sum considering Coolmore has already bought into Verrazano, and he's now an undefeated Grade 1 winner and one of the top two choices for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

    The dream probably stemmed from a conversation I had with Sean Feld outside the Keeneland Track Kitchen on Monday morning when we both lamented expecting to see something special this past weekend but didn't.


    I know I told Joel Cunningham of Triple Crown Insider before the Florida Derby that I wouldn't make any excuses for Itsmyluckyday if he didn't win the Florida Derby, and I'm still not, but that doesn't mean he can't be my number one. He's still run the two fastest races this year (among males), and while Orb beat him on the square last out, I don't think Orb won in such a way that warrants me taking a third of the price on that foe. Verrazano is worthy to take money as well, but I can't give him most of mine as the favorite or second choice off a pair of 100 Brisnet.com Speed Ratings.

    Goldencents impressed me in winning the Santa Anita Derby in the sense that I didn't think he had a race like that in him, but he does nothing for me as a Kentucky Derby prospect especially in the win pool where he will be drastically overbet because of the Rick Pitino connection. It's an interesting consideration because I could see him being as low as the third choice in the win pool but worse than fifth choice in the exotics.

    I hope you enjoy the video as much as I enjoyed eating that burrito. I'll be back Wednesday with some Keeneland thoughts.

  • Bullet Train Derby Platform presented by Brisnet.com--the 3:18 to Turfway

    POSTED Mar 18, 2013 By Unknown
    While enjoying a French dip sandwich at local post-Keeneland hotspot Parlay Social, Sean Feld mentioned that this weekend's Rebel Stakes did little to clear the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands picture for him.


     In the sense that I'm no more sure now than I was before the Rebel that Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano are the fastest horses and that Mac The Man is the best three-year-old no one who doesn't know me has ever heard of, I agree with Sean.

     This weekend's races are the last of Derby Championship Series Leg 1 (i.e., the "50-point races" or the 50-20-10-5 races), and Mac The Man runs in the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway. As I told Sean between au jus dips, Mac The Man has to run extremely well to sustain my ranking of him. A troubled second or a sneaky good third won't be enough to have him on the "A" list. I certainly hope he runs well enough not to embarrass him or me, but 2nd between Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano is too lofty of company to keep without a really good win on Saturday.

     That's looking ahead, though, and I still have some parting shots on the Rebel as inspired by Monday morning's #DerbyChat on Twitter.
    About a half-hour later I had to post this because I was clearly alone in my questioning of Oxbow's will to win.
    I'm still skeptical, though. Oxbow doesn't seem like that type that will take a charge. He's getting called for the blocking foul every time.

    As for the Rebel favorite, Super Ninety Nine...
    I didn't love Super Ninety Nine at the expected price because, but I did think he'd show enough to validate his Southwest Stakes performance. He performed so poorly that he dropped not only out of my ten (from an admittedly too-high four slot) but also the third pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which has 23 individual interests.

    And the one thing I'm surprised no one is talking about is that Equibase rated the Rebel as the fastest three-year-old stakes to date, which makes absolutely zero sense to me.

    My best guess is it messed up the variant on what many called a slow, tiring surface (1 1/16 miles in 1:45.18). Brisnet.com gave the race a 101 while Beyer had it at 95. So Brisnet has it as slightly faster than Beyer, but Brisnet hardly has it as a threat for one of the fastest races of the year let alone THE fastest.