Showing posts with label Ultimate Past Performances. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ultimate Past Performances. Show all posts

  • A smoking gun in every race

    POSTED Jul 10, 2013 By Unknown
    As director of marketing for Brisnet.com, one of the parts of my job I most enjoy is getting the Ultimate Past Performances in the hands of more people.

    Partnerships with Hello Race Fans and HorsePlayerNOW have helped spread the word (and the data), but with new blood comes questions, including the most basic of all: "How do I read this stuff?!!"

    The basic race chart and past performance line that comes from it is a lot like a baseball box score in that the information and how it's presented hasn't changed much over more than a century of competition. But just as Sabermetrics and the Elias Sports Bureau changed how we process that information as well as the information we want with it, so, too, has racing evolved with the advent of proprietary data ranging from "simple" speed ratings to complex indices to compare performance.

    The information available is not the only thing to expand, however, as access to that information is easier than ever as well. The aforementioned Ultimate PPs includes dozens of data points that even a generation ago would have required several sources and hours of research to track down. When people ask, "How do I read this stuff" they actually mean, "How do I determine what's important?"

    Like so many questions in racing, the answer is, "It depends." And for me when handicapping what "it" most often "depends" on is PRICE, which is why my favorite line in Len Ragozin's book The Odds Must Be Crazy is "at 30-to-1 I love the line [the horse's form or pattern]; at 3-to-1 I hate it."

     I was reminded of it again (and in a good way) on Sunday, July 7, when Midnight Aria won the Queen's Plate Stakes at Woodbine gate to wire at 16.6-to-1. There was enough not to like about Midnight Aria (distance questions and speed ratings tops on the list) that there's no way I'd have backed this horse as one of the favorites, but the one thing to like (lone speed) made him extremely attractive at the price.


    Now admittedly you don't need Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs to figure out if there's a lone speed type in the race. A bunch of 1s on the left-hand side of the running lines on one horse but not on any others is the best indication, but that still doesn't tell the whole story.
    That's where the features of more designer PPs such as Brisnet.com's Ultimate PPs can come into play. Not only was Midnight Aria an easy-to-identify frontrunner but also his designation as "E8" heightened the gate-to-wire threat. It's not uncommon to find a race with only one "E" or one "8" type, but it is rare that the only "E" is an 8 with the next closest pursuer an E/P 5.

     Again, at 3-to-1 I hate the line, but at 16.6-to-1 I was willing to take a chance.

    Sometimes handicapping a race requires putting all the pieces together like a puzzle to see the big picture, but other times there's such an imbalance between the potential success of a piece of data and the price a horse is offering that that is all you need to know.


  • Three preps and a cloud of dust

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.

     For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.

     Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • Portland Meadows carryover/0% takeout Wednesday

    POSTED Oct 3, 2012 By Unknown
    TwinSpires.com players already had a reason to play Portland Meadows' early Pick 4 every Wednesday, but the pot is even sweeter today (October 3) because of a $3,558 carryover after no one picked four on Sunday's card.

     Those who follow me on Twitter or catch my weekly segment on "At The Races" w/ Steve Byk (brought to you by TwinSpires.com, where players win) know that I'm not one to shy away from tracks off the beaten path. Sure, I love the social aspect of playing along with everyone else at the usual outposts like NYRA, Kentucky, and Southern California racing, but if there is free money in the pot at Assiniboia, Northlands, or Portland Meadows then I'm going to go for that too.

     One of the reasons I love Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances besides they keep me employed is they give the user a quick snapshot of how a particular meeting is playing. I don't follow Portland Meadows on a daily basis, but the detailed jockey-trainer statistics along with the Ultimate Race Summary page give any user a leg up on how the track is playing.

     All four races in today's sequence are sprints, though of varying distances from 4 1/2 to 6 furlongs. A quick glance through the PPs reveals that speed holds extremely well around one turn and that starting position is fair.

     The Ultimate PPs are also good for handicapping for an off track--something that seems to come into play more at Portland Meadows than other venues--but the forecast looks clear for today.

    The basic plan of attack will be that I need two "A"s to win, and I'll probably treat the Bs the same as Cs for that purpose. I could play every pick on this sheet for $400, but I'd rather give myself a chance to hit it multiple times, as I do see the "A" tabs as formidable here.

    UPDATE (3:30 p.m. EDT):
    The scratch of #4 Sicily Grace in race 3 has me rethinking my strategy since she was a lone "A" (i.e. a single) in that race. I've decided that rather than elevate #s 1, 2, & 7 to "A" status I'd still treat them as "B" picks and build my tickets around the remaining "A" selections.

    I've put together seven tickets with my lone "A" picks in races 1 and 4 singled on five tickets each and the cold 1-1 double sandwiching the sequence appearing on three different tickets. I like the remaining "A" picks enough that I'd rather hit the ticket many multiple times if they come in rather than spread elsewhere.

    UPDATE (the morning after):
    Well, B-A-A-X doesn't pay. I didn't like the last leg winner at all. She was dropping down to the level at which she had broke her maiden (against males, no less) and retained her jockey--the 27%-at-the-meet--Anne Sanguinetti, but others just seemed faster in here, and she was highweight.

    The real "miss" for me was not elevating first leg winner Singing Yankee to an "A" when it was obvious that the public was backing her with both fists for her debut. The toteboard said only Jenny's Turn or Singing Yankee could win the race, so putting most of my eggs in the former's basket while playing the latter in equal weight with some bombs wasn't a great strategy.

    The Pick 4 "only" paid $252 for a buck, so I didn't miss a home run, but a 2x3x3xA was only $126, and an even money return would have been fair value in that case.

  • Form form and the greatest race ever

    POSTED Jun 22, 2012 By Unknown
    I don't know if playing the races was ever not a numbers game, but social media has certainly heightened the general public's awareness of how a number can indicate performance.

    Within hours of Frankel's scintillating win in the Queen Anne, Timeform released a provisional rating of 147, which is the highest it has ever assigned. Some point to the figure as proof that Frankel is "The Best Ever," but Timeform has no rating for Secretariat's Belmont or Spectacular Bid's world record in the Strub--both of which I have to think would have at least cracked the 140 barrier that no North American race has produced.

    Speaking of the North American Timeform ratings, I tend to think they're deflated. Exhibit "A" is Cigar rated best of all North American horses listed. I don't know which race Cigar earned his 138 in, but I'd be willing to take either Ghostzapper's Woodward or his Breeders' Cup Classic over it, and his Timeform ceiling was 137.  Exhibit "B" is that Ragozin and ThoroGraph figures for foreign horses are routinely slower for European races than our races here. TG's Jerry Brown would attribute this in part to North American medication policies, including the use of Lasix, but overall I do think North America has faster horses than Timeform gives it credit for.

    It's tough if not unfair to compare Spectacular Bid to Frankel with any absoluteness. I'd take Frankel in the Breeders' Cup Mile and Spectacular Bid in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Maybe the San Diego Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack is the best test of these two? One thing Spectacular Bid and Frankel do have in common, though, that I really admire from an "all-time great" standpoint is that each was a top-class performer as a two-, three-, and four-year-old.

    Of course there are many ways to rate racehorses and races: speed ratings, performance figures, pace-adjusted speed figures, pace, class, etc. An under appreciated metric is the Brisnet.com Class Rating, which can be found in the Ultimate Past Performances and is a riff on the "who beat who and by how much" system that made Performance Rates popular.

    On a micro level, the Brisnet.com Class Rating is a powerful handicapping tool. I trust it to compartmentalize the class in each race and separate contenders from non contenders. The numbers fit in a tight group (90 for bottom level claimers through 125 for top stakes performers), so small differences mean a lot. E.g., a horse capable of a 120 Class Rating is far superior to one who tops out at 117.

    On a macro level, the Brisnet.com Class Rating can help distinguish between all-time greats. 125 is a superlative figure, and only one horse in the history of the rating has cracked 130: Workforce when winning the 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.



    Frankel's best number is127, which he earned in the Sussex Stakes when defeating multiple Group 1 winner Canford Cliffs by five lengths. Sea The Stars also topped off at 127 for his Coral Eclipse Stakes victory, and he had three other efforts of 125+.


    Ghostzapper is the only horse to appear in the top 19 twice, which he achieved in the aforementioned Woodward (over eventual Horse of the Year Saint Liam) and Breeders' Cup Classic (over Horse of the Year Azeri, defending Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect, eventual Dubai World Cup winner Roses In May, Belmont-Travers winner Birdstone, and multiple Grade 1 winner Funny Cide in stakes record time).Cigar's best was a 126, which he earned in the 1995 Jockey Club Gold Cup, but his five ratings of 125+ is certainly impressive.

    And what of those fabulous females in recent years? Zenyatta notched a 126 in both her Breeders' Cup Classic efforts plus a 125 in her Ladies' Classic. Rachel Alexandra hit the 127 mark twice: the Mother Goose and the Haskell as well as 126 in the Kentucky Oaks and 125 in the Fleur de Lis. Havre de Grace peaked at 125 in both the Woodward and Beldame. Blind Luck never topped 123, but she maintained that pleateau seven times. Royal Delta's recent win earned a 125, which is a career best for the champion.

    I typically use Class Ratings to assess individual performance, but given the historic perspective of this post, it's impossible to ignore the corker that was the 2003 Breeders' Cup Turf, which featured a dead heat between defending winner High Chaparral and Johar with multiple Group 1 winner Falbrav in third.

    Just as "Greatest Racehorse Ever" can mean different things to different people, "Greatest Race Ever" can too, but there's no doubt that this is the best race I've ever seen live, and I certainly would lobby on its behalf for inclusion on a short list of greatest races ever.







  • FREE Ultimate Past Performances

    POSTED Feb 23, 2012 By Unknown
    In case you haven't heard, Ultimate Past Performances is FREE through February 29 (the promotion applies to the date the track is running, not when you buy).

    Of course, this type of promotion is just every day living for TwinSpires.com players, who receive free Brisnet.com past performances for the tracks on which they wager.

    I have been using Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances since January 1998 when a similar free promotion got me to sign up. As someone used to using the Equibase-style program on track, there was a bit of culture-shock-information-overload the first few times I interacted with the Ultimate PPs, which feature speed ratings, pace figures, race and class ratings, Prime Power, pedigree information, and detailed jockey and trainer statistics--all elements other past performance products have added through the years because of the popularity of Brisnet.com's products.

    For a quick tutorial on using Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, click here. The most important thing to remember is that just because all that information is available does not necessarily mean you need to interact with all that information each race.

    When looking at a six-furlong race for bottom-level lifetime claimers on the New York circuit, for instance, the pedigree information is unlikely to be very helpful. Similarly, when evaluating a second-time starter who had trouble throughout his entire debut trip, you're better off using trainer-jockey stats and pedigree info than you are figures related to that horse's troubled performance.

    The key is that all that information is available each race, and the more you interact with it the more adept you will become at handicapping efficiently.

    NHC Tour winner Paul Shurman has a great approach when using Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances to complement the other information he uses.

    "I do use a lot of different products, especially for tournaments," said Shurman, who also finished sixth in the National Handicapping Championship. "What I rely on most from Ultimate Past Performances are the track bias stats and the pedigree stats, especially the dam production index when applicable. I have a template made up for tournaments; it's sort of like a checklist for every race, so I have all the information from all my different sources right in front of me, and I don't forget to consider something.

    "The first thing I do when I start handicapping is to make notes for every race in the contest on track bias from the Ultimate Performances. Then I go through pedigree information and mark down anything of significance."

    On balance, my favorite "exclusive" of the Ultimate Past Performances is the class rating, which measures a horse's performance against every other horse's performance not only in that race but also how those horses have performed in future races. I'm a speed figure devotee, but I have found that while speed figures are the best predictor of current form, the class ratings deliver an explosive assessment of relative talent. Entries with a class rating even two points lower than the median for a race are typical underlays, and 3+ points renders them a complete nonfactor.

    Enjoy the promotion!

  • Hot to Trotter

    POSTED Jan 25, 2012 By Unknown
    Congratulations to A.C., J.F., and J.M. for being the inaugural inductees into the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame!

    Unfortunately Jennifer Tilly wasn't waiting at the end of the Let 8 Ride rainbow, but in addition to their enshrinement into sacred space, the trailblazing trio turned $8 into $911.20, a 37.8% premium from the $661.20 the Trots earned on their win betting. The $250 extra came from them being one of four players to select winners on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The fourth person not inducted (C.K.) lost his $8 win bet on Saturday but still collected $250, which is pretty great considering he started with an $8 win bet and lost a parlay wager.

    LSS--that's long story short--you can win even when you lose with Let 8 Ride... provided you've already won on Wednesday and Thursday, of course.

    Speaking of winning on Wednesday, a new game starts with race 8 tonight (and every Wednesday) at Delta Downs! Check the link for free Ultimate PPs w/ comments from Brisnet.com.

    Tonight's race is all about speed. It's an entry-level allowance race for older females, and each of the eight entrants have either an "E" or "E/P" pace designation. That's just an indication of running style, though, based on the pars for the race only a few of these are likely to actually make the lead.

    My top pick is #3 Phone Marybe, whose bad races came when marooned on the outside but is inside for this. I like that he's rated and won, which should do the trick against this bunch.

    I've advocated dutching in the first round of this game because the value comes from making it to Friday when losers split $500 and winners player for an added $1,000 on Saturday. I like Phone Marybe so much in this race, I'm not willing to give up value by betting others. I'll add the caveat that since #s 4 & 7 look to be underlays based on their morning line, I might take a flyer on #s 1, 2, or 5 if any are big bombs, but with only 8 horses signed on and lots of speed, I expect a compact odds board and thus the trey is the play.

  • Figure 8 is really great

    POSTED Jan 18, 2012 By Unknown
    If "Is it Wednesday yet" isn't the mantra of Delta Downs players everywhere then--barring a lawsuit from ESPN--it should be because nothing can beat the excitement of turning an $8 win bet into more money and bragging rights through the Let 8 Ride promotion.

    Well, OK, many things can, and if you're doing one of those things--e.g. riding a roller coaster, bowling a 300 game, or eating at an In N Out Burger without WiFi access--then you're excused from playing in tonight's contest, but otherwise download those race 8 Ultimates for tonight at Delta Downs and find the winner!

    Through two weeks there has yet to be a player who has successfully let it ride on four consecutive days, which entitles the winner to not only cash but also enshrinement in the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame. I made it through day one last week with a $22 winner but needed two win bets to get there. That luxury isn't available on day two, and I got suckered into a bad favorite. The second choice won and paid a healthy $7, but I was down to squadouche.

    I might go four deep tonight depending on odds. I expect two of my choices to be absolute bombs and the others are logical favorites. If one of the logical horses wins at 2-to-1 then I'll actually lose $8 because I've risked $32 on a $24 return. However, the game is to Let It Ride, so a winning bet on Thursday should put me in the black. This would not be my plan normally if not for the provision that those who surivive into Friday play for a $500 prize pool with $1,000 on the line for those who make it to Saturday. I'm not actually eligible for the added value, but I like to play along to the letter of the rules so that I can offer the best advice possible. Plus all that churn gets me closer to bronze status.

    My top pick in here is #6 Smart Trick, one of only three "E" speed ratings in the ten-horse field, but who, with six Quirin Speed Points, is easily the fastest of that trio. Those with an "E" Speed Rating win one-mile races at Delta at a 35% clip, so he's poised to be in the right spot. I'm not thrilled with an 0/10 trainer in 2011-2012, but the apprentice allowance should help, and this horse has been fast enough to win at this level. There's lots of other stuff to like, too: It's his third-start off the layoff, and he had a decent work between today and his last start. He also moves inside from post ten last week after racing near the lead three wide.

    Speaking of workouts leading up to a third start off a layoff, #3 Lone Renegade also fits that bill, and he also moves inside from making his last start from post ten. His last two starts off the layoff were on a muddy track, and he's 1/12 on off tracks but 7/52 on fast tracks. This one wouldn't be impossible.

    The two favorites, #4 Hitnotiq and #7 Dowhatnow, make perfect sense and wouldn't shock me, but they will be overbet. In the spirit of this game, and I want to use them in the hopes of continuing, but either could have too much work to do late and if both do then this thing pays boxcars.

    For those who need some assistance figuring out what $8 to win pays, here's a little help from Schoolhouse Rock.

  • Players' Pool preparation
    Step 1, pre-entries

    POSTED Oct 26, 2011 By Unknown
    Pre-entries for the 2011 Breeders' Cup World Championships are finally available, and with their release comes earnest planning of how to wager on the blockbuster cards November 4-5 at Churchill Downs.

    The preface to step 1 is staying up to date on all the divisions throughout the year by watching races, reading Handicapper's Edge, etc. Doing that without overdoing it is a topic for another day, but the macro view is I try not to get too invested in a particular horse or race before the pre-entries come out because things are so fluid, but nor do I want to be completely surprised by a name or figure in the PPs either.

    Pre-entry PPs help put things in focus. I won't get to the point where I'm proposing to any horses, but I'm definitely figuring out who I like--as in like like--and hopefully some those quality relationships will grow over the next week and a half to form the base of my wagering for Breeders' Cup. Of course, sometimes you get to know a horse and realize, I'm just not that into you.

    As captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool, I'm responsible for wagering $100,000 on the races. The challenge at that price point becomes not picking winners--we have the capital to use most horses in most races (a 5x5x5x5x5x5 pick six costs $31,500)--but to structure the bets to optimize the syndicate's chances of winning money. Spending $50,000 on the Ultra Pick Six on Saturday and cashing for half that amount is not exciting. The pre-entry period is great for parsing each race and figuring out where to zig when others might zag or when to single when others might spread (or vice versa).

    Using last year as an example, using Dakota Phone was unquestionably the key to a pick six that paid $800,000. Having a strong opinion on Uncle Mo and Goldikova turned the rest of the sequence into a $2 pick four. I realize that's easy to say in hindsight, but to me, the best opinion to have last year isn't necessary "Dakota Phone will win" but "Uncle Mo and Goldikova will win and the other races are more open."

    I'm not sure who the Uncle Mo or Goldikova is this year if there even is one, let alone two, but having $100,000 means you don't necessarily need a single. To me, being able to use three horses with 90% confidence of getting through a race is far more powerful than a single who's 50% to win. That single is obviously a great win bet at 3-to-2 and certainly offers value exotic wagers, too, but you're still a coin flip away from elimination.

    And that's what this period is all about. I want to identify the races that are worth having the strongest opinion on and build my tickets around those opinions.