Showing posts with label Kardashians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kardashians. Show all posts

  • What’s In a Name?

    POSTED Nov 23, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Over the past week, my friend and colleague Ed DeRosa has written extensively about Eblouissante, the three-year-old half-sister to Zenyatta.

    (Click on image to enlarge
    At the heart of his writings was one simple question: Would Eblouissante offer value in her debut or would the Zenyatta connection assure that her price was lower than a pair of pants at a skate park?

    In the end, Ed concluded that 7-5 was more than fair on a filly that he felt had a 50-50 shot of visiting the winner’s circle and, judging by Eblouissante’s convincing 4 ½-length score, he was right. But it got me to thinking (something I like to do when I’m not keeping up with the Kardashians): Does it make economic sense to follow and play horses that even casual players are aware of and, therefore, more likely to bet? I decided to do a little — emphasis on little — study to find out.

    Below is a table that includes all the 2011 Eclipse Award-winning thoroughbreds (minus Black Jack Blues, who was voted best steeplechaser) along with their pari-mutuel performances thus far in 2012. I figured if any group of animals could be considered “name horses,” recent Eclipse Award winners fit the bill nicely.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The results, as one can see, are somewhat ambiguous. While last year’s champions have certainly outperformed the average thoroughbred running for a tag at Aqueduct on a Thursday afternoon, they have not exactly been cash cows.

    Havre de Grace, Hansen, My Miss Aurelia, Animal Kingdom, Royal Delta, Acclamation, Musical Romance and Amazombie have combined to win 17 of 35 starts this year. A $2 win bet on each of them in those 35 races would have resulted in a profit of — drumroll please — 50 cents.

    That’s right, two quarters... five dimes... 10 nickels... you get the picture.

    Mind you, this is better than one could expect betting a bunch of random no-names or even favorites, but it is hardly the stuff of legends, which brings us to Saturday’s Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct.

    Among the entrants in that Grade I event is Groupie Doll; the same Groupie Doll that won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint by 4 ½ lengths. The same Groupie Doll that is a lock to win the Eclipse Award for top female sprinter.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Now, contrary to my recent betting opinions of her, I like Groupie Doll. I think she’s a tough and talented filly and the deserving female sprint champion, but that doesn’t mean I think the daughter of Bowman’s Band is worthy of a bet at any price. Personally, I wouldn’t take less than 2-1 on trainer William Bradley’s stable star in the Cigar and, given her reputation, I think such a price is probably a pipe dream.

    I feel likewise about another “name horse.” Although Stay Thirsty has not won an Eclipse Award (and isn’t likely to), many fans are still aware of him thanks to his high-profile connections. Owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, Stay Thirsty is coming off a game second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 29 and also has a win in the Grade I Travers on his resume.

    But Stay Thirsty is a plodder. Definitely not the kind of horse that I think will relish turning back to a mile at this stage of his career.

    The horse I’ll be taking a long look at in the Cigar Mile is Buffum, a four-year-old Bernardini colt owned by Godolphin Racing.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Buffum has run some of his best races at a flat mile and comes off an impressive wire-to-wire score in the Grade III Bold Ruler at seven furlongs. I think he could be on the engine again Saturday and he could prove tough to overhaul in a race without a lot of strong late runners.

    Plus, I’m guessing Buffum’s price will be a lot more generous than the price on either Groupie Doll or Stay Thirsty. And value, my friends, is the name of the the game     — the only name that counts.

     Additional Aqueduct Analysis (11/24/12)

     AQU6: To say that 1-UNLIMITED BUDGET’s debut was impressive is akin to calling the Rocky Mountains “hills” — a gross understatement. Not only did the daughter of Street Sense win by 9 ½ lengths on Nov. 9, she recorded a -14 early speed ration (ESR) in the process. Unlimited Budget ran so fast early that day that she left the 1-2 favorite Brilliant Jewel, who was coming off a second-place showing behind 2-EMOLLIENT (today’s morning-line favorite) in her lifetime bow, gasping for air even before the field turned for home. What’s more, Unlimited Budget earned a -7 late speed ration for her maiden score — just a couple ticks slower than Emollient recorded in her maiden victory.

    AQU7: In a race that could feature a fairly hot pace (most juvenile races do), I like the fact that 9-NORMANDY INVASION is a proven commodity from off the pace. I also love the -3 LSR the son of Tapit earned last time. 6-INDY’S ILLUSION sports improving pace figures and should get first run on the early leaders; big shot at a big price. The 1/1A Repole Stable entry of MICROMANAGE and OVERANALYZE can also be used at the right price (5/2 or greater). I’m taking a stand against 4-DELHOMME if he’s a short price (less than 4-1) because I think that last race looks better on paper than it did on the racetrack.

    AQU8: Will try to beat the “name horses” 7-GROUPIE DOLL and 1-STAY THIRSTY with 3-BUFFUM and 5-HYMN BOOK (see analysis above).

    AQU9: I’m afraid the morning line tells the story. 2-DANCE CARD has the most talent, but I hate the layoff, while both 6-BOOK REVIEW and 7-MY WANDY’S GIRL look like viable alternatives.

  • Fit vs. Fragile

    POSTED Aug 23, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Rail Trip
    A few years ago, I wrote about the Freshened Horse Fallacy, the theory that the modern-day thoroughbred simply cannot withstand the rigors of day-to-day training and — heaven forbid — racing on a consistent basis.

    I pointed out that much of this hysteria is based on the belief that thoroughbreds are getting weaker and more fragile due to the emphasis American breeders are putting on speed, rather than stamina. 

    The premature retirements of both I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister, the 1-2 finishers in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, seems to back this contention up, as does the recent tendon tear that unethically targeted last year’s juvenile champion Hansen and likely relegated his career to the history books as well.

    That horses are making fewer and fewer starts is indisputable. In 1975, the average thoroughbred went to post 10.2 times a year; in 2011, the average number of starts per year was down to 6.2.

    Of course, whether or not this has to do with dubious DNA or a changing economic and social landscape is very much in doubt. After all, does anybody seriously think that we’ll ever see another Triple Crown winner compete past the age of five, which both Assault and Citation did (in the 1940s)?

    What’s more, if American stud farms are, in fact, breeding for speed these days, they’re having about as much success as Kris Jenner did breeding for class and dignity. While all eight of the quarter horse world records for distances up to 550 yards were set in the last three years and standardbred records seem to fall every week, only a handful of thoroughbred world-record times have been recorded in the new millennium. Some, like the seven-furlong mark, date back to when the Internet was merely a sparkle in Al Gore’s eyes.

    Personally, I think the notion that breeding for speed has led to the decline of the thoroughbred racehorse is largely bunk. Likewise, the view that more rest and fewer races is the only way to effectively deal with this “delicate” situation is also malarkey.

    When I penned “The Freshened Horse Fallacy,” I presented some test data to prove this and I want to do the same thing here, only with new, up-to-date statistics. But before I reveal the numbers, let me first establish the ground rules, as set in that original piece:
    Of course, the biggest challenge one faces when attempting to prove or disprove a racetrack “fact” is obtaining truly independent variables. The reality is that almost no single factor contributing to the outcome of a horse race can be easily isolated. Take, for example, speed and form — what’s the real difference? Typically, a horse that runs fast also runs well, right? After all, it’s not often that a 30-length loser will post an outstanding Beyer figure.

    So, my first hurdle was distinguishing between a “freshening” and layoffs resulting from injury or infirmity. Thus, I decided to concentrate solely on post-time favorites (ignoring entries). That way, I could be reasonably certain that I was apprising only those contestants that had shown at least a semblance of class and form in the recent past.

    Now, does this ensure an autonomous sample? Of course not. Obviously, the date of a horse’s most recent outing is going to influence the crowd’s betting habits, but at least it helps eliminate those hapless nags that neither racing nor resting will aid.

    First, I looked at favorites as a whole (provided they were single betting interests with at least one lifetime start) from assorted races run during 2004-2009:

    Races: 5,786
    Won: 2,075
    Rate: 35.9%
    ROI: -15.49%

    As you can see, these figures are right in line with long-term national averages. Thus, my database would appear to be “fair.” Next, I looked at favorites that were coming back on less than 10 days rest:

    Races: 250
    Won: 98
    Rate: 39.2%
    ROI: -8.36%
    At this point, let’s take a DeLorean back to the future and take a peek at the current figures, culled from my brand new database consisting of 4,873 races. First, all the favorites:
    Races: 4,873
    Won: 1,811
    Rate: 37.2%
    ROI: -16.82%

    What immediately strikes me, of course, is that although favorites are winning more now than before (37.2 percent vs. 35.9 percent), the ROI is even worse (-16.82 percent compared to -15.49 percent). Just more proof that value betting is the only way to profit in today’s game.

    However, that’s not what my test and this article are about. So, with that in mind, let’s see if the current crop of thoroughbreds can stand up to the “rigors” of a recent race. Below are the digits for favorites competing within 10 days of their last start:

    Races: 225
    Won: 97
    Rate: 43.1%
    ROI: -10.11%

    Once again, we see a huge improvement in the stats — an improvement that seems to argue against an increasingly brittle breed. This test also demonstrates why one should (at the very least) be hesitant to accept horseracing “truths” at face value.

    Far too often, they are anything but.

    Six-Figure Saturday & Sunday

    A couple of $1 million Grade I events highlight this weekend’s racing action. On Saturday, the top (remaining) three-year-olds do battle in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga; then, on Sunday, the best older horses on the West Coast square off in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
     
    In the former, I’m intrigued by the ever-improving Street Life, who just captured the Curlin by 1 ¾ lengths on July 27, as well as Liaison and Neck ‘N Neck, both of whom had wide trips vs. probable race favorite Alpha in the Grade II Jim Dandy on July 28.

    Where the surf meets the turf, I’ll be keeping my eye on Rail Trip, who recorded a race-best +6 late speed ration (LSR) in his last race, the Grade II San Diego Handicap. The old guy still has some spring left in his legs and he should get a great... well, rail trip... in Sunday’s feature.

    On the other hand, I’m completely tossing Dullahan, who is starting to remind me of Ice Box. Yeah, his non-effort in the Haskell can probably be excused — I’m not convinced the son of Even The Score cares for the dirt, much less Monmouth Park’s speed-favoring surface — but, honestly, this guy’s resume hardly screams greatness. And given that the Classic will mark his first try against older foes, I’ll take a pass.

    For FREE Brisnet past performance that include my speed rations (ESRs and LSRs), check out the links below:

    2012 Travers Stakes past performances
    2012 Pacific Classic past performances