Showing posts with label Havre de Grace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Havre de Grace. Show all posts

  • What’s In a Name?

    POSTED Nov 23, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Over the past week, my friend and colleague Ed DeRosa has written extensively about Eblouissante, the three-year-old half-sister to Zenyatta.

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    At the heart of his writings was one simple question: Would Eblouissante offer value in her debut or would the Zenyatta connection assure that her price was lower than a pair of pants at a skate park?

    In the end, Ed concluded that 7-5 was more than fair on a filly that he felt had a 50-50 shot of visiting the winner’s circle and, judging by Eblouissante’s convincing 4 ½-length score, he was right. But it got me to thinking (something I like to do when I’m not keeping up with the Kardashians): Does it make economic sense to follow and play horses that even casual players are aware of and, therefore, more likely to bet? I decided to do a little — emphasis on little — study to find out.

    Below is a table that includes all the 2011 Eclipse Award-winning thoroughbreds (minus Black Jack Blues, who was voted best steeplechaser) along with their pari-mutuel performances thus far in 2012. I figured if any group of animals could be considered “name horses,” recent Eclipse Award winners fit the bill nicely.

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    The results, as one can see, are somewhat ambiguous. While last year’s champions have certainly outperformed the average thoroughbred running for a tag at Aqueduct on a Thursday afternoon, they have not exactly been cash cows.

    Havre de Grace, Hansen, My Miss Aurelia, Animal Kingdom, Royal Delta, Acclamation, Musical Romance and Amazombie have combined to win 17 of 35 starts this year. A $2 win bet on each of them in those 35 races would have resulted in a profit of — drumroll please — 50 cents.

    That’s right, two quarters... five dimes... 10 nickels... you get the picture.

    Mind you, this is better than one could expect betting a bunch of random no-names or even favorites, but it is hardly the stuff of legends, which brings us to Saturday’s Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct.

    Among the entrants in that Grade I event is Groupie Doll; the same Groupie Doll that won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint by 4 ½ lengths. The same Groupie Doll that is a lock to win the Eclipse Award for top female sprinter.


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    Now, contrary to my recent betting opinions of her, I like Groupie Doll. I think she’s a tough and talented filly and the deserving female sprint champion, but that doesn’t mean I think the daughter of Bowman’s Band is worthy of a bet at any price. Personally, I wouldn’t take less than 2-1 on trainer William Bradley’s stable star in the Cigar and, given her reputation, I think such a price is probably a pipe dream.

    I feel likewise about another “name horse.” Although Stay Thirsty has not won an Eclipse Award (and isn’t likely to), many fans are still aware of him thanks to his high-profile connections. Owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, Stay Thirsty is coming off a game second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 29 and also has a win in the Grade I Travers on his resume.

    But Stay Thirsty is a plodder. Definitely not the kind of horse that I think will relish turning back to a mile at this stage of his career.

    The horse I’ll be taking a long look at in the Cigar Mile is Buffum, a four-year-old Bernardini colt owned by Godolphin Racing.


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    Buffum has run some of his best races at a flat mile and comes off an impressive wire-to-wire score in the Grade III Bold Ruler at seven furlongs. I think he could be on the engine again Saturday and he could prove tough to overhaul in a race without a lot of strong late runners.

    Plus, I’m guessing Buffum’s price will be a lot more generous than the price on either Groupie Doll or Stay Thirsty. And value, my friends, is the name of the the game     — the only name that counts.

     Additional Aqueduct Analysis (11/24/12)

     AQU6: To say that 1-UNLIMITED BUDGET’s debut was impressive is akin to calling the Rocky Mountains “hills” — a gross understatement. Not only did the daughter of Street Sense win by 9 ½ lengths on Nov. 9, she recorded a -14 early speed ration (ESR) in the process. Unlimited Budget ran so fast early that day that she left the 1-2 favorite Brilliant Jewel, who was coming off a second-place showing behind 2-EMOLLIENT (today’s morning-line favorite) in her lifetime bow, gasping for air even before the field turned for home. What’s more, Unlimited Budget earned a -7 late speed ration for her maiden score — just a couple ticks slower than Emollient recorded in her maiden victory.

    AQU7: In a race that could feature a fairly hot pace (most juvenile races do), I like the fact that 9-NORMANDY INVASION is a proven commodity from off the pace. I also love the -3 LSR the son of Tapit earned last time. 6-INDY’S ILLUSION sports improving pace figures and should get first run on the early leaders; big shot at a big price. The 1/1A Repole Stable entry of MICROMANAGE and OVERANALYZE can also be used at the right price (5/2 or greater). I’m taking a stand against 4-DELHOMME if he’s a short price (less than 4-1) because I think that last race looks better on paper than it did on the racetrack.

    AQU8: Will try to beat the “name horses” 7-GROUPIE DOLL and 1-STAY THIRSTY with 3-BUFFUM and 5-HYMN BOOK (see analysis above).

    AQU9: I’m afraid the morning line tells the story. 2-DANCE CARD has the most talent, but I hate the layoff, while both 6-BOOK REVIEW and 7-MY WANDY’S GIRL look like viable alternatives.

  • The 'Key Race' and Havre Disgrace

    POSTED Apr 11, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Many moons ago, in his master work “Betting Thoroughbreds,” Steve Davidowitz coined the term “Key Race” to describe a race that featured an inordinate number of next-out winners. According to Davidowitz, these winners are generally not coincidental.

    “Either [the Key Race] was superior to the designated class or else it contained an unusually fit group of horses. In either case, that’s important information,” the author wrote.

    Apparently the Daily Racing Form agreed, as that esteemed publication soon began italicizing the names of next-out winners in its result charts and past performances.

    Yet, by its very nature, the Key Race Method suffers from one very large and significant drawback: typically, by the time an event can confidently be deemed a Key Race it has lost its value as a predictive tool. After all, what good is it to discover a particularly strong race after half a dozen horses have already won their next start? Not only that, but given how infrequently horses compete today, it can take several weeks or even months to determine whether a past contest qualifies as a Key Race.

    Hence, I decided to come up with a method of assessing Key Races that doesn’t require validation after the fact. Like Davidowitz’s initial technique, however, I wanted to keep it simple, so that even novice horseplayers could judge the merits of a particular race with just a modicum of time and effort.

    Here’s how it works:
    A) Using the result chart from a horse’s last race, find the median finishing position for all the entrants in their prior race. This information can be found in the leftmost column following the (abbreviated) track name. For example, by examining the chart below, one will discover that On Lockdown finished fifth in his last race, which was run at Oaklawn Park (OP) on March 15, 2012.

    Note: For those who don’t have kids in school, the median is simply the middle value of an ordered array of numbers. If the array is even, it is the average of the two values closest to the middle.

    B) Divide the number of entrants, or the field size, by the figure obtained above to get the Key Race Rating.



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    That’s all there is to it; the higher the rating, the better the race was for the class. Notice I said “for the class.” Keep in mind that these Key Race Ratings need to be viewed in light of the overall level of the race. A high rating in a $15,000 claiming event does not make a horse a contender against a rival that earned a much lower figure in a Grade I affair — it’s just common sense. However, in races featuring horses that last raced against similar competition, the ratings can be invaluable. To illustrate this, let’s take a look at the two most dominant female performers of the new millennium — Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta:



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    Now, before I discuss these brilliant racehorses, let me start by saying that the following is not an endorsement for — or an indictment against — one or the other. Both horses were great in their own way. This is simply a demonstration of my Key Race Rating method in action, using two horses that even the most casual of racing fans are sure to recognize.

    So, with that out of the way, the first thing I did was compute the Key Race Ratings for each of Rachel Alexandra’s and Zenyatta’s Grade I starts in 2009 (again, the idea is to compare apples to apples).

    Not surprisingly, it turns out that Zenyatta faced her biggest challenge in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (12.0 KRR), while Rachel received her staunchest test in the Haskell Invitational (7.0 KRR). Of course, some might argue that the Woodward, which featured older males, was a tougher race than the Haskell, which was restricted to three-year-olds, but I beg to differ. Whether viewed before or after the race, the 2009 Woodward simply did not stack up to previous editions of that storied race.

    Outside of Rachel Alexandra herself, only Cool Coal Man ever won another race. Subtracting those two horses from the equation, the other six Woodward entrants were winless in a combined 21 subsequent starts. Even worse, they hit the board (finished third or better) just five times.

    And Rachel was the one that many claimed was “done in” by the Woodward… go figure.

    Anyway, based on the whole of their campaigns, the data indicates that Rachel Alexandra faced stiffer competition (4.3 median KRR) than did Zenyatta (2.9 median KKR) and that was borne out by the number of next-out winners their individual races produced.

    Zenyatta’s four Grade I starts saw only three follow-up winners (an average of 0.8 per start), whereas Rachel’s five Grade I forays witnessed six follow-up winners (1.2 per start). More importantly, a bet on each of Rachel Alexandra’s vanquished rivals in their next start would have produced a return on investment (ROI) of 1.3 percent; Zenyatta’s defeated foes produced a -38.4 percent ROI.

    Hopefully, this comparison highlights the merit of assessing the strength of a race before, rather than after, it has been run. Handicappers that use my Key Race Rating method will not only find unusually strong fields at a particular class level, but also incredibly weak ones.

    These class-within-a-class distinctions will surely add to one’s understanding of the game… not to mention one’s bottom line.

    Something Amiss with Havre De Grace?

    All the weeping and gnashing of teeth over weight assignments from the connections of Havre De Grace has made me wonder: is something amiss with the defending Horse of the Year?

    The circumstantial evidence suggests there may, in fact, be a problem — and that the griping over weights is simply a smokescreen, a convenient excuse not to run.

    As I pointed out on my podcast, Havre De Grace’s late speed rations (LSRs) started going south in last year’s Woodward Stakes, when she faced males for the first time. After recording LSRs ranging from 0 to -2 from May 10, 2010 until July 16, 2011 (the date of the Delaware Handicap, when the weight complaints first started), the daughter of Saint Liam hasn’t earned an LSR greater than -4 since.



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    What’s more, from the time Larry Jones took over her training in 2011 until just prior to the Woodward, Havre De Grace recorded 18 workouts — nine of which were “bullets” (the fastest work of the day at the distance). Since the Woodward, Havre De Grace has worked out 12 times, earning just two bullets.



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    Free Handicapping Reports

    04/14/12 Hawthorne Win Factor Report
    04/14/12 Oaklawn Park Win Factor Report
    04/14/12 Oaklawn Park Pace Profile Report (selected races)

  • In with the old for once

    POSTED Jan 4, 2012 By Unknown
    Thoroughbred racing takes the New Year phrase, "Out with the old and in with the new" a little too seriously for its own good sometimes.

    A litany of marquee retirements often mark the end of the racing season, but that's not the case this year, as the champions in the older male, older female, three-year-old male, and three-year-old filly divisions are all likely to return to racing this year.

    Should that happen, it would mark the first time since the Eclipse Awards were created in 1971 that all four of those champions raced the following year. I.e., It's never happened. That's mind boggling to me.

    To be sure, the three-year-old male division remains the glamor group, particularly in the late winter and early spring, but having the likes of Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (yeah, I'm calling it for her even if she didn't get my vote) and certain champion three-year-old filly Royal Delta back in training is sure to add some spice to the long march toward the Breeders' Cup.

    The other two divisions of the four I mentioned--older male & three-year-old male--are unresolved, but regardless of who wins (Game On Dude or Acclamation among older males and Animal Kingdom or Caleb's Posse among three-year-old males), they're all coming back!

    But the excitement does not end with the champions. All three classic winners are returning: the aforementioned Animal Kingdom plus Shackleford and Ruler On Ice. The sprint division has its champion Amazombie coming back along with The Factor and Caleb's Posse. And on turf, there's plenty of excitement swirling around Brilliant Speed and Mr. Commons plus the fairer sex has Summer Soiree, Winter Memories, and Star Billing.

    It's often said that racing needs its stars on the track, and I'm often skeptical about whether a few returning horses can move the dial. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, both certain Racing Hall of Fame inductees even before either of them raced in 2010, both returned off Eclipse Award seasons, but without them racing each other there was not much excitement on a national level until the Breeders' Cup, which Rachel Alexandra didn't even make.

    It will be extremely difficult for all of the above horses to avoid each other as well as some other heavies such as Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man, and To Honor And Serve all coming back as well.

    I've already argued for Brilliant Speed over Mr. Commons in a mythical (for now) 1 1/4-mile matchup on turf, but even if that doesn't pan out surely we'll get to see To Honor And Serve, Caleb's Posse, and The Factor all duke it out in the Met Mile, or the Classic winners back for the Stephen Foster, or Havre de Grace against Royal Delta at Saratoga, right?

    And all of these names are just in the U.S. The biggest name of all is Frankel, and he's racing this year, too, and might even do so in the Breeders' Cup! 

  • Awards season: My Eclipse Award ballot

    POSTED Jan 3, 2012 By Unknown
    The Iowa Caucus promises to be far more interesting than my Eclipse Award ballot. Previous Horse of the Year battles would have put the Republication nomination process to shame, but this is a tame year. Better to let the race for leader of the free world to have the spotlight, anyway.
    I won't bother with long drawn out explanations in each category. Some are obvious and the ones that aren't have been reasoned rather well in other forums.
    I made Cape Blanco my Horse of the Year. In a down year by many accounts, I thought he strung together the most impressive resume of Grade 1 races while winning a truly marquee race to boot. Acclamation and Havre de Grace round out my top three for that category, and I really couldn't argue against either winning. It gets dicier for me after that.
    I try to stay consistent in my voting style each year without being obstinate. My tenets are
    • -Winning Grade 1 races matters most
    • -Head to head victories earn extra cache
    • -Related to points 1 & 2: you have to win the race for me to consider it a head to head victory (i.e., "finishing in front of" is not good enough).
    • -Races restricted by age mean less to me than those that aren't (e.g. for female sprinter Ballerina > Test; for male turf Sword Dancer > Secretariat
    • -General special consideration for winning races people most want to win (e.g. classics, Breeders' Cup)
    Horse of the Year
    1. Cape Blanco, 2. Acclamation, 3. Havre de Grace
    Two-year-old male
    1. Hansen, 2. Union Rags, 3. Wrote
    Two-year-old female
    1. My Miss Aurelia, 2. Grace Hall, 3. Stephanie's Kitten
    Three-year-old male
    1. Caleb's Posse, 2. The Factor, 3. Animal Kingdom
    Three-year-old female
    1. Royal Delta, 2. It's Tricky, 3. Plum Pretty 
    Turf male
    1. Cape Blanco, 2. Acclamation, 3. St Nicholas Abbey
    Turf female
    1. Stacelita, 2. Dubawi Heights, 3. Never Retreat
    Older male
    1. Acclamation, 2. Game On Dude, 3. Tizway
    Older female
    1. Havre de Grace, 2. Blind Luck, 3. Ask the Moon
    Female sprinter
    1. Sassy Image, 2. Hilda's Passion, 3. Musical Romance
    Male Sprinter
    1. Amazombie, 2. Caleb's Posse, 3. Regally Ready
    Jockey
    1. Ramon Dominguez, 2. John Velazquez, 3. Javier Castellano
    Trainer
    1. Baffert, 2. Mott, 3. O'Brien
    Breeder
    1. Ramsey, 2. Team Valor, 3. Brylynn Farm
    Owner
    1. Team Valor, 2. Ramsey, 3. WinStar
    Abstensions: apprentice jockey, steeplechase

    For more year-end award goodness, check out Kellie Reilly's Turf Awards over at Brisnet.com's The Handicapper's Edge.

  • Breeders' Cup needs more Super Bass

    POSTED Oct 7, 2011 By Unknown
    Unfortunately, racing isn't popular enough to warrant inclusion in the lexicon of pop music, but thanks to the gift of parody we can try to make the Sport of Kings a bit more relevant.

    I took a gentle ribbing on Twitter when I mentioned that I actually like the song "Super Bass" by Nicki Minaj. It's a catchy little ditty that really came into focus for me after the Beldame when I realized that with that right cadence "Havre de Grace" can fit into the rhythm of "Super Bass". Ideally, I'd be rapping this at Keeneland while the likely champion older female prepares for the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I can't rap and don't know anyone who can, so I'd rather share the lyrics now in the hopes that some industrious rap artist will improve the lyrics a bit, drop a beat on it, and get this thing to go viral.

    Anyway, for those unfamiliar with the song, here is the video (some possibly NSFW themes and dance moves). It definitely helps to have a feel for the song for the rap to more easily read the HdG rap below.




    This one is for the boys at the Breeders’ Cup
    Lots of chatter about what matters leading up
    When I come up in the stall you better toughin up
    Run you into the ground and you’ll be easing up

    And he’s fast, can last, might give a thrill
    Pop the latch on the gate and get me in a duel
    He’ll go, try to roll, but end up a little short
    Always in the mix but never going to finish
    When I make’em down shift jockey hit’em with a stick stick
    Don’t even need a perfect trip to win it in the last click
    That’s the kind of race you should look for
    And yes you’ll lose money if you don’t know
    I think we can agree this is a heck of a field
    I mean, I look all around and they’re all I would own
    I mean, I’ve got Porter and Repole has Mo
    But a bowtie is preferred to vitamin H2O
    Yes I will yes I will everybody will know who the F I is
    I’m Havre de Grace and back the dudes up, back my figs up, bet against me and rip your deuce up

    And now my hoof beat’s running away
    Beating like a drum and it’s coming your way
    Can’t you hear them hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs, ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace
    Hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace (Havre de Grace) 

    This one of the boys in the Woodward
    Wannabe winners with high hopes
    They could ball with their crew but had no hope
    But I think I like it better than facing the girls
    And I think I’m long gone with the afterburners on
    My jockey ain’t even got to put the stick on
    He just give me that chirp, when he give me that cue
    Then the race is gone off
    You’ll lose to me if you stick to my thigh, race in hand, jockey ride high
    Scream, watch me go by, rest of the field staring at my backside
    Yes I will yes I will everybody will know who the F I is
    I’m Havre de Grace and back the dudes up, back my figs up, bet against me and rip your deuce up

    And now my hoof beat’s running away
    Beating like a drum and it’s coming your way
    Can’t you hear them hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs, ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace
    Hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace (Havre de Grace)


  • Horse racing in the fall: A look toward the Breeders' Cup futures

    POSTED Sep 8, 2011 By Unknown
    I love the Kentucky Derby. As far as a true season goes in horse racing, nothing beats the Derby prep season that culminates in a championship that is the Triple Crown.

    And while many lament that Thoroughbred racing lacks a true season outside of the above events, Breeders' Cup prep season certainly comes closest. Plus, I like the weather in Kentucky from September-November better than I do in March-May.

    This Breeders' Cup prep season promises to be a doozy both on the track and in the press as the connections of both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace map out a path that will certainly decide champion older female and possibly Horse of the Year.

    As a fan of the sport, I'd love to see them win prep races on opposite coasts and then race in the Classic to decide Horse of the Year. I see that scenario as bringing maximum exposure to the event, but I certainly couldn't fault trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's gamesmanship if he wants to ship Blind Luck to face Havre de Grace in the Beldame.

    IF either Blind Luck or Havre de Grace run in the Breeders' Cup Classic then I would have no issue making either one of them my single "A" in pick N wagers. If they both run I'd probably use them in equal strength and relegate any other contenders to "C" status.

    That's a long way away, of course, but I do think both are faster than any horse out there under the Classic's conditions. The question this far out is not whether either could do what Zenyatta couldn't but whether either of them will try.

    Havre de Grace's connections said after her victory against males in the Woodward that they would pre-enter their Saint Liam filly in both the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic and the Classic on the following day. Hollendorfer, meanwhile, has been steadfast that the Classic has never been under consideration for Blind Luck.

    While I believe the sentiment now, I have a hard time believing the filly's connections will secede Eclipse Award consideration to Havre de Grace by not facing her in the Breeders' Cup should the Woodward winner again face males. If the two super fillies head to the Ladies' Classic, though, then the Classic becomes more wide open.

    Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book has 72 individual horses listed on its Breeders' Cup Classic future book released September 6, and of that list there is a baker's dozen that I find compelling at the odds.

    If I lived in Las Vegas I would be looking to make about an even money wager that one of the 13 horses I've identified will win the race. I've already wagered $100 on Blind Luck to win the Classic at 50-to-1 odds, so the spreadsheet below reflects that price and NOT the 30-to-1 she is currently trading at.

    The investment is an even $1,000 with the idea that if any of my horses wins, I'll get back ~$2,000 with some "bonuses" for horses I really like such as Flat Out at 15-to-1, Giant Oak at 30-to-1, and To Honor And Serve at 75-to-1. Havre de Grace at 9-to-1 isn't GREAT considering the uncertainty surrounding her participation, but having the leverage of being able to play other horses makes it easier to lean on her here.

    I considered Twirling Candy at 8-to-1 and Stay Thirsty at 12-to-1 not necessarily because I think those are great prices but because I'd be shocked if either is a Classic non starter. Twirling Candy, I guess, could end up in the Dirt Mile or Mile, but he's just been too competitive all year not to take a shot with no real superstars besides the fillies. Stay Thirsty I just decided I'll re-evaluate as the race gets closer.

    Joe Nevills started a good dialogue about these prices on Twitter. Join in the conversation there or leave a comment below.

    The chart below lists all 72 individual betting interests for the Classic on the Wynn future book
    sorted first by the horses I would bet and then alphabetically by the horses I wouldn't.