TwinSpires.com Blog

Jon Siegel leads the latest edition of Triple Crown Insider acknowledging that I'll Have Another is the fastest horse in the race, and that is the case no matter what numbers you use to gauge these horses' performances.

But handicapping a horse race isn't only about figuring out who has run fastest, it's about figuring out who will run fastest in this race.

One of the best handicappers I know, Scott Carson, is great at projecting performances. I don't get quite as specific as he does when plotting a race, but I do use the rudimentary approach of figuring the chances a horse A) improves, B) maintains, or C) goes backward. A+ would be an explosive move, and a C- would be a huge step back.

I'll Have Another is the easiest of Belmont winners with either an "A+" or "A" performance as defined above. Even a "B" performance means someone would have to improve, and only Dullahan or Paynter could win with their "A" if I'll Have Another fires a "B". Horses like Union Rags and Street Life, meanwhile, would need an "A+".

The best chance for anyone other than I'll Have Another winning is if the dual classic winner runs a "C". His "off" race from either the Derby or Preakness probably still hits the board and might even win, but that would likely mean some others didn't fire as well.

One reason I like Optimizer a little bit is he seems to always fire a "B", i.e. maintains his form rather consistently. That's not nearly fast enough normally, and as a top choice I wouldn't like him, but there's enough of a chance that he moves forward with the added distance to prefer him underneath at 20-to-1 than Union Rags, Paynter, or Street Life at lower prices.

Still, I expect my main strategy (as a personal player, not for the TwinSpires.com Player's Pool) to be to single I'll Have Another in multi-race wagers, bet Dullahan to win, and play a straight I'll Have Another-Dullahan exacta with Optimizer thrown in to some of the gimmicks.

If it's possible for a Grade 2 win to get upstaged by an allowance race and a listed stake then that certainly happened this weekend with Gemologist winning the former and Street Life winning the latter before Secret Circle captured the Rebel Stakes.

Triple Crown Insider talks about the weekend that was (or wasn't if you're either a Sabercat or a Najjar backer).

MY TAKE: Gemologist certainly is who I thought he wasn't. In a year where fans have gone nuts over allowance wins (e.g., Animal Kingdom, Nehro) this was a legit eye opener for me considering I wasn't in Gemologist's camp at all, and I feel lucky to have only lost .75 units betting Currency Swap across the board. I moved Gemologist to eighth on my Top Ten Derby list off this effort.

Street Life did not impress me as much. Some pointed to him running down a pacesetter who set soft fractions, and while that certainly made him best in the Broad Brush, I just don't see him as capable of running down a horse like Hansen or out-running Alpha or even Our Entourage on the far turn. Overall, I chalk it up to a horse looking impressive winning a slow race, but going forward that still makes the horse slow (e.g. Winter Memories).

Secret Circle continues to impress as one of the most consistently fast members of his generation, but it's tough not to view his Rebel Stakes win as a regression considering it was his first-ever race not to eclipse the 100 BRIS Speed Rating threshold. That said, he never really looked comfortable out there and still won.

More importantly for 17 players in the TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown promotion, Secret Circle keyed a trifecta that included Scatman, and everyone who was alive for the $1-million prize going into the week still is.

The Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby are this weekend, and the winners of each race will have enough earnings to get into the Derby, which means six weeks of "Can <insert name of Spiral winner here> be the next Animal Kingdom?" and "Can <insert name of 4th-place Sunland Derby finisher here> be the next Mine That Bird?"