Showing posts with label Sunland Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunland Park. Show all posts

  • TwinSpires player wins $63k on dime bet

    POSTED Apr 19, 2012 By Unknown
    Normally hitting a Pick 6 would be enough big news for one day, but the hits kept coming for Julia Kring after Tricky Causeway completed the must-win Solo 6 sequence Tuesday at Sunland Park.

    Betting through TwinSpires.com, the 72-year-old retiree put in a 3x2x3x2x2x4 ticket for $28.80 that was live going into the last race. Kring, a veteran bettor who says she plays $100/day a few times each week, knew the likely payouts would be robust with three winners already having paid $15 plus a $39,000 carryover into the day with a mandatory payout to fuel the pool, but she was floored when she saw her winning combination return $31,517.04 for a dime.

    So you can really imagine her surprise, then, when her account indicated that she had actually won $63,034.08 ($47,276.08 after taxes) because the scratch of one of her three horses in the first leg coupled with the favorite winning that leg actually gave her the winning combination twice.

    “I was happy when I knew I won the Pick 6, but I almost fainted when I saw what it paid and then again when I saw what I got back,” Kring said from her Frankfort, Kentucky, home on Wednesday between betting races at Keeneland.

    Kring used Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances to handicap the sequence. One element of those PPs she likes is the detailed jockey statistics, which she finds especially useful for circuits she is not as familiar with like New Mexico.

    Indeed, Kring said she most often plays Kentucky and New York racing but decided to take a look at Sunland on Tuesday because of an ad she saw on the TwinSpires.com homepage touting the carryover and mandatory payout.

    “I like to play every day, but if I’m on a losing streak I’ll get mad at it and take a few days off,” Kring said. “Of course, I can’t get mad at it for awhile now.”

    Kring said she will wait for the funds to appear in her bank account before deciding how to spend the money.

    In addition to Kring’s pair of winning tickets, TwinSpires.com also sold a third dime ticket that hit on a $188.40 play, but that bettor did not wish to be identified.

  • Triple Crown Insider weekend preview

    POSTED Mar 23, 2012 By Unknown
    One of the "games" I like to "play" on "the Twitter" is to ask before certain Triple Crown prep races the odds of a starter from that race going on to win the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

    The answers immediately before the Tampa Bay Derby ranged from 50- to 300-to-1, so there wasn't a lot of confidence in that race being key to unlocking this year's Derby puzzle. I don't know what answers I'll get ahead of this weekend's Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby, but I'd be shocked if anyone I respect thinks either has a better than 15-to-1 chance of sending a starter on to win the roses come May 5.

    It's not that I disrespect either prep race--we all know the recent history of three classic winners coming from these two races in the past three years (Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, and Ruler On Ice)--but considering that of all 20 entrants from both races (12 in the Spiral plus 8 in the Sunland), only Castaway (12th) is ranked among the top 20 of the Paulick Derby Index, 15-to-1 on either race (before the race) is probably an underlay.

    However, the simple math is that the winners of both races will have enough graded stakes earnings to be in the Derby starter gate, and recent history suggests that Derby starters very rarely go off at odds of less than 50-to-1, so even though 15-to-1 on a Spiral starter to wear roses seems like an underlay, 50-to-1 is certainly an overlay if you think more than one Spiral starter will make it to the Derby gate, and even 15-to-1 is fair if two Spiral starters end up being 30-to-1 each on Derby day (and all this applies to Sunland as well).

    This week's Triple Crown Insider approaches both races from a similar standpoint: Given the dynamics of the graded stakes earnings chase, both races are extremely likely to produce Derby starters, but the credentials of most competitors to date makes it difficult to assess the likely impact of either race. The Spiral, for instance, does not feature a graded stakes winner, and only four of the dozen entrants have even earned black type.


    Other than the connections of three-year-olds attempting to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the people with the most riding on these two races are the 17 still alive for $1-million in the TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown promotion.

    Those who make it through this weekend will be nearly halfway home with 11 races down and 12 to go (including the Triple Crown). There are no gimmes in either race, though, as I don't expect the favorite of either heat to be less than 5-to-2.

    If I were still alive at this point, I'd legit be sweating this week's picks because that would mean in order for me to be eligible, I'd no longer be employed by TwinSpires so I'd really need that $1-million. Actually I'd be nervous no matter what. These two races are definitely mines, but I wouldn't tiptoe around them. Make your pick and go for it. No second guessing, no worrying, etc.

    Easier said than done, though, so here's Toga Tout to help take the edge off.


  • Triple Crown Insider weekend review

    POSTED Mar 20, 2012 By Unknown
    If it's possible for a Grade 2 win to get upstaged by an allowance race and a listed stake then that certainly happened this weekend with Gemologist winning the former and Street Life winning the latter before Secret Circle captured the Rebel Stakes.

    Triple Crown Insider talks about the weekend that was (or wasn't if you're either a Sabercat or a Najjar backer).

    MY TAKE: Gemologist certainly is who I thought he wasn't. In a year where fans have gone nuts over allowance wins (e.g., Animal Kingdom, Nehro) this was a legit eye opener for me considering I wasn't in Gemologist's camp at all, and I feel lucky to have only lost .75 units betting Currency Swap across the board. I moved Gemologist to eighth on my Top Ten Derby list off this effort.

    Street Life did not impress me as much. Some pointed to him running down a pacesetter who set soft fractions, and while that certainly made him best in the Broad Brush, I just don't see him as capable of running down a horse like Hansen or out-running Alpha or even Our Entourage on the far turn. Overall, I chalk it up to a horse looking impressive winning a slow race, but going forward that still makes the horse slow (e.g. Winter Memories).

    Secret Circle continues to impress as one of the most consistently fast members of his generation, but it's tough not to view his Rebel Stakes win as a regression considering it was his first-ever race not to eclipse the 100 BRIS Speed Rating threshold. That said, he never really looked comfortable out there and still won.

    More importantly for 17 players in the TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown promotion, Secret Circle keyed a trifecta that included Scatman, and everyone who was alive for the $1-million prize going into the week still is.

    The Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby are this weekend, and the winners of each race will have enough earnings to get into the Derby, which means six weeks of "Can <insert name of Spiral winner here> be the next Animal Kingdom?" and "Can <insert name of 4th-place Sunland Derby finisher here> be the next Mine That Bird?"