Showing posts with label Whirlaway. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Whirlaway. Show all posts

  • The Greatest Kentucky Derby Champions

    POSTED Jan 31, 2014 By Derek Simon
    In my opinion, the most fascinating thing about sports has nothing to do with the competition or the venue. Sure, those who were in the stands when Babe Ruth allegedly “called his shot” witnessed a historic moment.


    The lucky fans that watched Wilt Chamberlain pour in 100 points in an NBA game against the New York Knicks (why am I not surprised the Knicks were involved?) on March 2, 1962, saw a basketball legend at his very best.


    But the thrill of sports — at least to me — is not watching a Hall-of-Famer go off on a guy with a career scoring average of 7.2 points per game (PPG), like Darrall Imhoff, who started at center for the Knicks that historic night. To me, the thrill of sports is debating the answer to a simple question: “what if?”

    Sid Luckman
    What if Chamberlain played a one-on-one game of hoops with Michael Jordan? What if Ruth was stared down by Clayton Kershaw with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning? What if Sid Luckman, the man who pioneered the position of quarterback, faced off with Peyton Manning, the guy who tied Luckman (and others) with seven touchdown passes in a single game? 

     NOTE: A Manning-Luckman showdown would have particular appeal to me because Luckman also played defensive back. (No word on whether he gave Sammy Baugh the choke sign or called  Charley Malone  a “mediocre receiver” after the Chicago Bears pounded the Washington Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 NFL title game).

     My point here is that the history of sports is what makes them so compelling. After all, without the context that history provides, there can be no greatness. Scoring 100 points in an NBA game is only noteworthy because no one — except Chamberlain — has ever done it.

    It was with this in mind that I decided to peruse my database of Kentucky Derby results and present what I believe are the top three greatest performances in Derby history.

    Now, anybody who has delved into the history of sports knows that it is not easy to determine greatness by statistics alone.

    Things change.

    For example, during the 1961-62 season, in which Chamberlain averaged 50.4 PPG, the typical NBA team took 107.7 shots per contest. By the time Jordan was leading the Chicago Bulls to their last title in 1998, teams were attempting just 79.7 shots per game.

    Likewise, the racing strip at Churchill Downs, the site of the Kentucky Derby, has changed over the years — making straight time comparisons fruitless. However, as many regular readers know, I have developed my own pace figures, which measure relative speed, so I will be relying heavily on them to make my assessments.

    Hence, a quick tutorial is in order:

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

    5. NORTHERN DANCER (1964)

    In addition to being one of the most influential sires in history, Northern Dancer was a heckuva racehorse. The zero late speed ration he earned in the 1964 Run for the Roses ranks eighth all time and his 2:00 clocking wasn’t surpassed until Secretariat in 1973.


    4. MAJESTIC PRINCE (1969)

    Although Majestic Prince’s +1 LSR was fourth-best in Derby history, he is probably best known for a race he didn’t win — the Belmont Stakes.

    Fearing that “Prince” was injured after he bore out in the stretch of the Preakness, the colt’s trainer Johnny Longden initially decided not to ship to New York. However, after much public pressure — some coming from the horse’s owner Frank McMahon — Longden relented and Majestic Prince finished a badly-beaten second to eventual three-year-old champ Arts and Letters.

    Majestic Prince never raced again.


    3. OLD ROSEBUD (1914)

    Old Rosebud’s zero LSR ranks as the fifth-highest in Kentucky Derby history and the best ever for a wire-to-wire winner of America’s most prestigious horse race. What’s more his final time of 2:03 2/5 set a Derby record that would stand for 16 years.


    2. WHIRLAWAY (1941)

    Whirlaway had great timing. Not only did he possess a potent late kick, but he knew when to raise his game — which he did on the first Saturday in May of 1941. Not only did Whirlaway win the Derby by eight lengths that day, he also recorded a +1 LSR and set a new track record (2:01-2/5) that wasn’t broken until 1957.


    1. SECRETARIAT (1973)

    No horse — past, present and probably future — ever had the kind of spring that Secretariat had in 1973. After getting upset by stable mate Angle Light in the Wood Memorial, “Big Red” produced a series of efforts that culminated with a Triple Crown, an Eclipse award for Horse of the Year and a new title: legend.

    Secretariat’s 1:59-2/5 clocking remains a Kentucky Derby record and his +3 LSR is tied with His Eminence (1901) for the best ever.

  • Preakness 2013: Redemption for ‘Figure Handicapping’

    POSTED May 25, 2013 By Derek Simon
    In the days leading up to and immediately following the Kentucky Derby, all I heard about was Orb.

    Orb, Orb, Orb… I finally understood how Jan Brady felt.

    Frankly, I wasn’t that impressed with the horse and had trouble understanding what all the fuss was about — kind of like Nicki Minaj’s career. Even after he made me look foolish in Louisville, I still wasn’t convinced that Orb had what it took to be the subject of a future Disney movie, much less a Triple Crown winner.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Of course, I made this determination based on numbers: speed ratings and my own pace figures (speed rations) — and that’s where the trouble started. You see, I found out from racing fans and other media types that the data I’ve relied on to guide me through the perilous pari-mutuel waters for more than 20 years were, well, worthless.

    Beyer was (and presumably still is) an idiot; Tom Brohamer is a complete moron; Bill Quirin is a certified loon — and I belong in a padded cell for ever listening to and/or learning from these whakos.

    According to Orb supporters, the colt’s dominance in the Run for the Roses was a matter of will — not pace, not speed. Indeed, legendary turf writer Damyon Runyon was dead wrong when he said, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.” The way to bet, I was told, is to ignore speed and pace figures like the stuff growing hair in my refrigerator and focus instead on how a horse looks and how it behaves. Only by becoming an expert in body language can one hope to triumph at the windows, I was informed.

    Then came the Preakness Stakes… and complete and total redemption for figure handicapping.

    While Orb mania reached a fever pitch throughout cyberspace, I expressed concern about the condition of Shug McGaughey’s stable star on my May15 podcast, speculating that he was likely to regress in the Preakness and voicing concerns about his fair odds.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    On that same broadcast, I also noted that I was impressed by the numbers on Mylute and particularly Oxbow, who I thought ran a bang-up race in the Derby

    (For a snippet of my pre-Preakness thoughts on Orb and Oxbow, click HERE.)

    When the race ran true to the numbers (at least my numbers) — Oxbow was the winner, Itsmyluckyday finished second, Mylute rallied for third and Orb straggled home a distant fourth — the “body language” crowd was quick to blame the Derby champ’s defeat on jockey Joel Rosario’s incompetence, the “dead” rail, the pace, George Bush (just a hunch), etc.

    As for me, I gave silent thanks to Beyer, Quinn and Quirin and collected my superfecta winnings.

    Monday Win Factor Reports

     Coming soon... I hope.

  • The Baltimore Bounce

    POSTED May 17, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Horses don’t bounce.

    At least that’s the position I’ve always taken when arguing with speed-figure handicappers and others who believe that a single race can “gut” a horse — à la Rachel Alexandra in the 2010 Woodward.

    Frankly, I feel the same way about “bouncing” that I do about global warming. I don’t doubt the phenomenon — thoroughbred racehorses clearly have good and bad days (just ask Itsmyluckyday) and statistics show that the Earth’s temperature is, in fact, rising slightly — but I am very dubious of the conclusions that many draw from this data.

    No, I do not think that man (in the general sense) controls the fate of the planet. To paraphrase a line from my favorite holiday movie “It’s a Wonderful Life”: In the whole vast configuration of things, I'd say man is nothing but a scurvy little spider.

    We can’t prevent earthquakes, tornadoes, monsoons or even the occasional afternoon sprinkle, but somehow we have the power to destroy the planet? Please. (The power to destroy ourselves is another matter, of course.)

    Likewise, I think it is generally foolhardy to say, as followers of The Sheets and other speed rating services often do, that a certain pattern of numbers indicates a horse that is “over the top,” or due to run a poor race. And I think it is particularly foolish to assert that there is an optimum number of days between races that allows these “gutted” animals to recover — or not.

    The fact is, when one is dealing with a finite data series, which, for the most part, speed figures are — horses can only go so fast or so slow — what we see from animals that regress after a particularly impressive performance is more often a return to the mean than it is a reaction to a hard race.

    Did pitcher Philip Humber of the Chicago White Sox “bounce” when he gave up nine earned runs in five innings on April 26, 2012 — a mere five days after he became just the 21st player in the 135-year history of Major League Baseball to throw a perfect game?

    Few of sound mind and body would argue that he did.

    Through May 11, Humber has a 5.34 career earned run average and is 0-8 this year. What happened on April 26, 2012 was simply a return to the norm; in Humber’s case, a return to mediocrity.

    Now, having said this, I think it is equally obvious that greatness, at least as it relates to sports, can be defined as an athlete (or team) that consistently produces outstanding results. Most people know that Wilt Chamberlain is the only player in NBA history to score 100 points in a game, but how many people know that Chamberlain scored 60 or more 32 times (yes, that’s a three followed by a two)?

    I can already hear the grumbling: Fine, fine… thanks for the sports history lesson, Poindexter. But what do Humber and Chamberlain have to do with horseracing and bouncing?

    Everything, as it turns out.

    I doubt many racing fans would disagree with me when I say that winning the Triple Crown is among the toughest achievements in all of sports. After all, only 11 horses have pulled off the coveted Kentucky Derby-Preakness-Belmont Stakes trifecta and it’s been 35 years since the last one (Affirmed in 1978).

    What all 11 of those horses had in common was consistent brilliance — at least during their Triple Crown run. At no point was this more evident than in 1973, when Secretariat set a track record in each of the Triple Crown contests (I don’t care what Pimlico officials say).

    Similarly, Sir Barton (1919), the first Triple Crown champion, set a track record in the Belmont Stakes; Citation (1948) destroyed the track record at Garden State in the Jersey Derby, a prep for the Belmont (Citation also raced six times in 61 days prior to his 8-length score in the “Test of Champions”); and Whirlaway (1941) set a track record in the Run for the Roses.

    The other greats that won the Triple Crown also showed remarkable consistency. 

    This got me to thinking: Could one use this factor to determine whether or not a horse is a viable Triple Crown contender?

    My gut feeling is that Derby winners possessing recent speed figures within a fairly restricted range probably outperform those that show a greater variance of performance. Hence, I came up with the following chart:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    It appears that my hypothesis may be correct (the sample is far too small to be definitive). Horses that improved their Brisnet speed figure by more than five points in the Kentucky Derby (compared to their previous start) are just 1-for-7 in Maryland since 1992. All other Derby winners are 7-of-13. (Using the Beyer numbers produces a 1-for-9 and 7-for-11 ledger, respectively.)

    This begs the question: Are Triple Crown winners the exception to the rule? Based on the following chart, not so much:


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Of course, I had to use the old Daily Racing Form speed ratings for this one, but even utilizing that simple formula (100 minus the fifths of a second the winner’s time was off the track record minus beaten lengths) — and without using track variants — it is clear that even Triple Crown champs tend to record consistent speed figs. In fact, Secretariat, one of the chart “exceptions” actually set a track record in his race prior to the Wood, which was arguably the worst race of his career (explaining his 20-point ascension in Louisville).

    So where does this leave Orb? Well, honestly, it makes him a bit vulnerable — especially if any of the other Preakness contenders improve.

    Will Orb, like Secretariat, be the exception to the "greatness rule"? Believers will get even odds or less to find out.

    Weekend Wagers

    Coming soon.