Showing posts with label selections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label selections. Show all posts

  • Gulfstream Wednesday February 13

    POSTED Feb 13, 2013 By Unknown
    There is a $2.1-million Rainbow^6 carryover, but I'm passing on that bet in favor of the Pick 5 and late Pick 4 hinging on the winning performances of singles in races 6 and 10.

    Yes, both Core Inflation in race 6 and Diamondesque in race 10 are likely to be win pool underlays, but I think I'm creative enough in other legs to squeeze some value out of these likely winners.

    Good luck to those playing today.

  • Systematic Profits

    POSTED Oct 4, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Since I’ve been talking so much about handicapping angles on my podcast recently, I thought now might be a good time to show readers how to construct and use one.

    To start with, let’s define what an angle is. A handicapping angle is simply a methodical means of analysis and selection; it is not a shortcut to riches and glory.

    Contrary to popular opinion, handicapping angles needn’t be one dimensional either. It is entirely possible — and, frankly, desirable — for angles to possess comparative features, as well as the ability to make relative assessments based on the competition a horse is facing.

    What makes angles desirable is that they bring structure to one’s play and they can be tested. This latter point is important because it allows players to form expectations and, as a result, develop optimal betting techniques.

    So, without further ado, let’s take a look at an easy-to-apply angle that I came up for users of the Brisnet past performances:

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    1) Consider only the horse(s) with the highest Brisnet Power Rating.

    NOTE: This instantly puts one on a “live” horse based on traditional handicapping criteria — speed, pace, class, etc.

    2) Play qualifying horses provided their final odds are greater than or equal to their morning line odds multiplied by two. For example, if Horse A has the highest Brisnet Power Rating in the field and is 5-2 on the morning line, we would bet him/her at odds of 5-1 or greater.

    NOTE: The purpose of this rule is to isolate overlays. And, as demonstrated in my last column “Thinking Small,” the morning line can be helpful in this endeavor.

    Of course, the real fun of coming up with a handicapping angle is applying it. Hence, I’ve scoured a bunch of race cards on Friday and Saturday and have come up with the following potential plays:

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    For those who like to do their own handicapping — with a little help — I also produced my Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for the races at Hawthorne and Keeneland on Friday and Saturday:

    FRIDAY

    SATURDAY

  • Frankel, Black Caviar and a Royal Return

    POSTED Jun 21, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Question: Is Frankel the best horse in the world right now?
    Aanswer: Yes.

    Those who think otherwise obviously didn’t see Frankel overwhelm 10 opponents in the Group I Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot on Tuesday, in a performance so devastating that it earned the son of Galileo a 147 Timeform Rating — the highest in history.

    Those who think otherwise are clearly oblivious to the fact that Frankel covered the mile distance of the Queen Anne in 1:37.85, a time that was 1.15 seconds faster than the “standard” (think par) time — on a day that produced a 0.39 median variant (about 2 lengths slower than standard).

    Those who think otherwise… well, they aren’t really thinking at all.

    To get an idea of just how good Frankel is, take a look at his performance in the Queen Anne, along with the performances of the two horses with the next-best Timeform Ratings in their signature victories:

    Frankel (147)
    2012 Queen Anne Stakes


    Sea Bird (145)
    1965 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

     

    Brigadier Gerard (144)
    1971 2000 Guineas


    Black Caviar Looks to Remain Perfect

    And speaking of great horses and Royal Ascot, Black Caviar, the brilliant race mare from the land down under is scheduled to compete at the UK’s premier race meeting this weekend. A perfect 21-for-21 in her career, Black Caviar would undoubtedly strengthen her reputation as the best turf sprinter in the world with a win in the six-furlong Diamond Jubilee Stakes on Saturday.

    Below is my Win Factor analysis of the race:

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    Royal Delta Dominant in Return

    Well, so much for the “Dubai Bounce.” Two weeks after Game On Dude tied his best-ever Brisnet speed figure (109) in the Grade 2 Californian following his trip Dubai for the 2012 Dubai World Cup, Royal Delta dominated five rivals in the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs after exiting the same race.

    More noteworthy, the four-year-old daughter of Empire Maker toted 123 pounds and completed Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile journey in 1:49.49 — a full 1.02 seconds faster than it took Ron the Greek, carrying 119 pounds, to capture the Grade I Stephen Foster (also run at Churchill Downs) 35 minutes later.

    Royal Delta earned a solid -4 late speed ration (LSR) for her efforts, while Ron the Greek earned a very mediocre -12 LSR.

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    Weekend Win Factor Plays

    Thursday (6/21/12)

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    Friday (6/22/12)
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    Saturday (6/23/12)
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