• Projected Preakness win odds

    POSTED May 16, 2012
    Post positions could affect this a little bit, but until the draw tonight, the philosophy behind this line is more important than the odds themselves.

    E.g., I expect Bodemeister and I'll Have Another to be co favored. I have them at 5-to-2 on this line. I started off thinking 2-to-1, but that swelled the prices on others.

    I started out with Creative Cause and Went the Day Well as co third choices, but bumped up the latter, so Creative Cause is a clear third choice on this line. Daddy Nose Best will take some money, but surely some shine is off following that dull Derby performance at a pretty underlaid price.

    Both Tiger Walk and Teeth of the Dog have connections to attract money, especially in the Midlantic region, and the same price as Optimizer makes sense for them. The rest are obvious longshots, and it's just a matter of how long. There's no true bomb in Triple Crown races anymore, so 40-to-1 was my floor for Pretension, though I probably would have made Guyana Star Dweej 50 had he stayed in.

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