• The Preakness Stakes (video)

    POSTED May 15, 2012
    There were no surprises among who the Triple Crown Insider cognoscenti selected in the Preakness Stakes. Joel and I selected Creative Cause, Ray picked I'll Have Another, and Jon tabbed Bodemeister.


    That trio will certainly make up three of the top four betting choices in the race with Went the Day Well rounding out the favored quartet, and there's good reason for that.

    As Ray (in the video above) and Steve Crist (on his blog) discuss, those who run well in the Derby typically do well in the Preakness. Derby winners are 11 for their past 30 in the Preakness, and while the Preakness win percentage for Derby runner-ups is not nearly as gaudy, the also rans typically run well.

    The "new shooter" mantle had a bit of a renaissance in the late 20th and early 21st centuries thanks to wins by Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Rachel Alexandra and "gusty" performances in defeat by Magic Weisner (second to War Emblem in 2002) and Scrappy T (second to Afleet Alex in 2005), but Red Bullet and Rachel Alexandra were both Grade 1 winners going into the Preakness, and Bernardini was coming off a graded stakes win en route to championship honors that year.

    There are no such horses with close to those kinds of resumes among the new shooters in this year's Preakness, and I am playing the race for one of Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or Went the Day Well to win. Bodemeister would obviously be no surprise, but as the favorite against two horses who have already beaten him in a race (Creative Cause & I'll Have Another) I'll try to beat him.
    As the race summary from the Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs illustrate, the Derby starters are clearly the class of this bunch. Even the lowly Optimizer has an on-paper edge over the best of the new shooters.

    I'll return later this week with a closer look at the field as well as Toga Tout!

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