Showing posts with label Went the Day Well. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Went the Day Well. Show all posts

  • The Travers Travesty

    POSTED Sep 5, 2013 By Derek Simon
    The Daily Racing Form headline said it all: “Will Take Charge's jockey accused by rival trainer of using electrical device in Travers.”

     Great. The biggest race of the year at one of the most prestigious race meetings in the country — Saratoga — marred by accusations of cheating. Maybe next year Ryan Braun can give the call for “riders up.”

    “We have received a complaint that we are thoroughly investigating,” noted Lee Park, a spokesman for the New York Gaming Commission, “and we have sought the assistance of the New York State Police, which has expertise in video analysis…. I cannot confirm what came with the complaint. However, I can confirm … that we do have more than one video of the race that’s being reviewed.”

    Of course, there’s little doubt where the complaint came from. Eric Guillot, trainer of the second-place finisher Moreno, was hardly coy in his assessment of how Will Take Charge managed to defeat his sophomore star.

    “To me, the horse was dead in the water four jumps out from the wire when he hit him with the machine, he surged,” Guillot told The Daily Racing Form. “Pretty suspicious why they had a jock change coming off a second place in the Jim Dandy.”

    Guillot was referring to the fact that 21-year-old Luis Saez replaced Junior Alvarado as the rider of Will Take Charge after the Jim Dandy, a traditional prep for the Travers, also run at Saratoga.

    I know what some of you are thinking: Who cares what Guillot thinks? The guy is his own reality TV show, one Fruit Loop short of a box; he makes Amanda Bynes appear rational.

    True, but in this instance, he seems sincere, at least to me.

    “One thing I have with all the [stuff] I talk is integrity,” Guillot said. “Integrity goes a long way with me. This industry needs it. This will be a black eye to the industry. But I think if we all clean up the rats and flush them out, we’ll have no more problems in the future. I feel sorry for the industry and the gamblers, the people that bet on him at 30-1, for it to come to this.”

    In any event, I thought Guillot’s claims were worthy of my own investigation, so I analyzed the race replay on TwinSpires.com looking for clues of a conspiracy.

    Sadly, I found more than that — much more. In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that what I discovered from the videotape and still photos that I scrutinized has implications far beyond racing.

    I know a picture is worth a thousand words, so I produced a video detailing my findings (below). After you watch it, I’m confident that you will be convinced — as I was — that what occurred at Saratoga racecourse on Aug. 24, 2013, can never be allowed to happen again.

    I can only hope that the principals involved will be dealt with and that this sport — a sport that I dearly love — can move forward in the aftermath of this insidious event.

    Note: The views expressed in this video may or may not be — but definitely aren't — true. Some names have been changed to protect the sane.

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    Coming soon.

  • Preakness a classic struggle between pace, figure, & class handicapping

    POSTED May 18, 2012 By Unknown
    Bodemeister is one of the most polarizing favorites of a major stakes race in quite some time.

    As the 8-to-5 morning line favorite in the Preakness Stakes, we're not talking about lukewarm or mild favorite either. This is a horse who many expect to win the middle jewel of Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown, and even has respected national handicappers such as Andy Beyer and Bill Finley--two guys not afraid to go against chalk--firmly in the Derby runner-up's corner.

    He has his detractors, of course, but what makes him so polarizing is that many of those who don't like his chances to win (as I don't) also don't necessarily even like him to hit the board. I'm playing the race for Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or Went the Day Well to win the Preakness. I'll press on that trio in second as well and also include Cozetti, Tiger Walk, and Zetterholm underneath.

    Why no Bodemeister for me while others love him even as the favorite? Well, style of handicapping may play a role.

    If you're a pace handicapper and a fan of cliches, then Bodemeister hits you right between the eyes. If he's not lone speed in this heat, then he's certain to at least be speed of the speed. He shook off Trinniberg and ran champion Hansen off his feet in the Derby, and no one in this race appears to posses that kind of early foot. If anyone does challenge Bodemeister in the first half-mile he is doing so at his own peril.

    But lone speed still has to finish the race. It took a perfect trip for I'll Have Another to catch Bodemeister in the Derby, but the figure handicapper in me says that Bodemeister's effort is neither as impressive as his fast fractions have some believing nor is it an indication of what to expect in the Preakness.

    Bodemeister regressed in the Derby. It just wasn't as fast a race as the Arkansas Derby, and while the raw speed was second best, most figure makers didn't rate his Derby performance among the top three.

    From a form cycle stand point, the Derby WAS the bounce. Some are asking whether Bodemeister will bounce in the Preakness. Well, he already bounced in the Derby. The real question is if he maintains that form or moves even further backward. If the former then he could win this race about 20%-25% of the time making 4-to-1 fair value, but if it's the latter then he is a longshot to win and even 4-to-1 would be an underlay.

    All that is to say that 8-to-5 is too short for me, and I'm leaning in the figure handicapping camp more than the pace one.

    But what of class handicapping? Before the figure renaissance one of the most prevalent forms of handicapping was to assess who beat who and by how much. Bodemeister's two wins have come by a combined 18 3/4 lengths, but his last two losses were both second-place efforts to fellow Preakness entrants Creative Cause and I'll Have Another.

    I made the mistake of betting Summer Applause in the Oaks only to watch the filly who beat her last time out--Believe You Can--win again, and it's not a mistake I plan to repeat in the Preakness on an 8-to-5 shot.

    So you know who I don't like and who I'd like to see win, but let's cut to the chase and see who Toga Tout picks.



  • Projected Preakness win odds

    POSTED May 16, 2012 By Unknown
    Post positions could affect this a little bit, but until the draw tonight, the philosophy behind this line is more important than the odds themselves.

    E.g., I expect Bodemeister and I'll Have Another to be co favored. I have them at 5-to-2 on this line. I started off thinking 2-to-1, but that swelled the prices on others.

    I started out with Creative Cause and Went the Day Well as co third choices, but bumped up the latter, so Creative Cause is a clear third choice on this line. Daddy Nose Best will take some money, but surely some shine is off following that dull Derby performance at a pretty underlaid price.

    Both Tiger Walk and Teeth of the Dog have connections to attract money, especially in the Midlantic region, and the same price as Optimizer makes sense for them. The rest are obvious longshots, and it's just a matter of how long. There's no true bomb in Triple Crown races anymore, so 40-to-1 was my floor for Pretension, though I probably would have made Guyana Star Dweej 50 had he stayed in.

  • The Preakness Stakes (video)

    POSTED May 15, 2012 By Unknown
    There were no surprises among who the Triple Crown Insider cognoscenti selected in the Preakness Stakes. Joel and I selected Creative Cause, Ray picked I'll Have Another, and Jon tabbed Bodemeister.

     

    That trio will certainly make up three of the top four betting choices in the race with Went the Day Well rounding out the favored quartet, and there's good reason for that.

    As Ray (in the video above) and Steve Crist (on his blog) discuss, those who run well in the Derby typically do well in the Preakness. Derby winners are 11 for their past 30 in the Preakness, and while the Preakness win percentage for Derby runner-ups is not nearly as gaudy, the also rans typically run well.

    The "new shooter" mantle had a bit of a renaissance in the late 20th and early 21st centuries thanks to wins by Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Rachel Alexandra and "gusty" performances in defeat by Magic Weisner (second to War Emblem in 2002) and Scrappy T (second to Afleet Alex in 2005), but Red Bullet and Rachel Alexandra were both Grade 1 winners going into the Preakness, and Bernardini was coming off a graded stakes win en route to championship honors that year.

    There are no such horses with close to those kinds of resumes among the new shooters in this year's Preakness, and I am playing the race for one of Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or Went the Day Well to win. Bodemeister would obviously be no surprise, but as the favorite against two horses who have already beaten him in a race (Creative Cause & I'll Have Another) I'll try to beat him.
     
    As the race summary from the Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs illustrate, the Derby starters are clearly the class of this bunch. Even the lowly Optimizer has an on-paper edge over the best of the new shooters.

    I'll return later this week with a closer look at the field as well as Toga Tout!

  • TCI weekend review: Spiral & Sunland

    POSTED By Unknown
    Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham analyze the weekend's stakes races for another edition of Triple Crown Insider as well as look at the upcoming Louisiana Derby.



    MY TAKE: Like Jon and Joel, I didn't feel compelled to put either winner in my top ten list, but I thought both races were honest Grade 3s that I expect will hold their form as the year goes on.

    Daddy Nose Best registered a 104 BRIS Speed Rating in winning the Sunland Derby, and part of me wants to say that Julian Leparoux won the Sunland Derby because his patient handling of the stretch runner certainly contributed to his success in this race.

    Isn't He Clever ran as good a race in defeat. I don't know where Isn't He Clever fits in terms of the classics, but it wouldn't shock me to see him become a regional derby (e.g. Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Oklahoma, etc.) pro a la Prayer For Relief.

    I would bet Daddy Nose Best in the upcoming third future pool at 40-to-1 or better. He is one of only six three-year-olds to register a pair of BRIS Speed Ratings greater than 100. Yeah, he got a perfect trip in the Sunland Derby, and I hate the cliche that the Derby favors closers because of Churchill's long stretch or the 1 1/4-mile nature of the race, but Daddy Nose Best is a consistent sort, who--with six weeks to the Derby--figures to fire his best shot on May 5. It'd be nice to lock in a good price on him to win now and then use him mostly as an underneath play in exotics on Derby day.
    As for the Spiral, I was less impressed with its likelihood of becoming a key race among this generation but thought the top four all ran well enough to leave the door open for future highlights with additional development. But again, from a classics standpoint, I don't know that this race fits as a key player. I didn't get the same sense watching Went the Day Well as I did Animal Kingdom (whom I bet in the third future pool last year).

    More important than my future bets, though, is that four players are still alive for the $1-million prize in TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown by having correctly placed 11 consecutive $20 show wagers on the Triple Crown trail. There are three races this weekend: The U.A.E., Florida, and Louisiana Derbys.