• Amazing August Action On Tap

    POSTED Jul 31, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    It’s time for one of the biggest weekends of the season in the standardbred racing industry for insiders and players, for fans and spectators, as the Meadowlands hosts two days of huge stakes programs featuring some of the greatest pacers and trotters of our time. 
     
    TwinSpires bettors have some great advantages. First, we will be reporting on all of the stakes action live from the Meadowlands on Friday, Aug. 2 and Saturday, Aug. 3. Tune up now miss following us on Twitter as well as ingesting our Aug. 1 blog. Be ready for up-to-the-minute news items, handicapping tips and anything else a bettor needs to address the two programs with the brunt of your bankroll. Don’t forget to refuel the funds—now is a good time—so you can be ready for the weekend. 
     
    Second, the Hambletonian-day Players’ Pool is now open. Capped at $10,000, we are going after some of the best prices the Aug. 3 program will offer, including exotics. Get on the team with a buy-in and follow all the action, beginning at 11:50 a.m. on TwinSpires, as well as Twitter. 
     
    The Hambletonian elims and the Hambletonian Oaks are covered on the Hambletonian Trail at the exclusive blog. The remainder of the programs, including Friday night action, are analyzed below. Our exclusive harness horses to watch (H2W) list from tracks around North America will reboot next week.
     
    Merrie Annabelle
     
    The $321,700 Merrie Annabelle Final (frosh-filly trotters) is set to complete the Daily Double on the Hambo card. Lifetime Dream will look to keep her win record perfect at four races as she faces her biggest challenge of her career. Meeting up with her this week is our choice from the eliminations, which looks the next most impressive in the event. Heaven’s Door comes into the final with one start under her belt and a post that will allow her to race near the front. She raises some questions with last week’s break to the quarter but she seemed to be working too hard to get the front—and she did recover well. With a filly to her inside that cannot leave, “Door” may get away well and sit a perfect trip to pull off an upset. 
     
    Ima Lula 
     
    Last year’s sophomore-filly-trot rivalry between Check Me Out and Maven is renewed on the very day they both suffered defeats. This year they meet in the $55,000 Ima Lula Final. Both preliminaries contained upset winners in Real Babe and One More Ginny, making the final a much wider affair than some may think. 
     
    Constantly, Jonas Czernyson’s other filly D’orsay (Jonas conditions Maven) gets caught in hellish trips, mostly being parked without cover. That occurred in leg two of the “Lula,” being covered to the quarter but fighting on to try taking the top. Her game attempt to hold on to the lead she cleared in the stretch increased our confidence on a sublime performance possible here. She is peaking at a good point to get a good trip and shake the tote board. 
     
    Lady Liberty 
     
    Anndrovette returns to the states off a Canadian record of 1:48 in her Roses Are Red victory. She comes into this race for redemption, going off the second choice in last year’s edition and finishing in defeat after falling victim to exasperating fractions. Another mare from last year’s edition looks for solace in victory and has improved enough to get the job done. From the Ron Burke barn is Rocklamation, coming off two game efforts in the Roses Are Red elim and final. 
     
    She closed perfectly in the Roses Are Red elim, losing by ½ length in her first start off a layoff to Anndrovette. In the final, she was used harder at three-quarters than she should have and didn’t have her usual strong kick into the stretch. She should get off the gate moderately fast enough to stalk the front and weave her way to the wire first. 
     
    Peter Haughton 
     
    The $280,500 Peter Haughton Final (frosh-colt trotters) appears to be a two-horse race on paper; a rematch between elimination dazzlers Nuncio and Father Patrick. The favorite of the two looks to be Father Patrick but Nuncio is as equal a threat as “Pat” may ever face. Looking to Nuncio’s debut, he defeated Father Patrick at the wire in 1:56. He dug in tremendously in the Peter Haughton elim but was a head short. Don’t think that it will be a Nuncio-Father Patrick exacta, though, as there are two other horses that are absolute musts in exotics. 
     
    Southwind Spirit is the other elim winner, doing it in first-over fashion in 1:57.3. Though it appears unimpressive compared to Pat, he displayed endurance in that start. Most likely it won’t be as fast a mile as it was in Pat’s elimination, allowing for upsets to be possible. Ray Schnittker’s Derby is also a player in this field. He is making his third start and seems to improve with each mile. He can fill in the exotic area and perhaps pump up the price as well. 
     
    Vincennes 
     
    The $75,000 trot for elders, named after the famous racetrack in Paris, home of the Prix d’Amerique, we have what appears to be the most wide-open race on the card. The Vincennes Invitational Trot draws a field of 11, with many horses having good cases to be major threats to the others. However, Take My Picture is beginning to show positive steps in his American return and may be a notch above the rest. Before he left for the Elitlopp, he was dominating on the Ontario circuit. As expected, he still had some fine-tuning to do to return to winning form off of a disappointing effort in Sweden’s Elitlopp. He is making his third start off a layoff and could peak for a victory at home today. 
     
    ‘Cash’ Man Trotters 
     
    The top older male trotters will thump together in the $318,350 John Cashman, Jr. Memorial, formerly the Nat Ray Stakes. The expected favorite is last year’s Hambletonian champ, Market Share. He is the first Hambo winner to return at four and take part in this event since the great Mack Lobell, 25 years ago. 
     
    Market Share just beat most of these last week and was a giant favorite coming off a qualifier that was as faster as any win time by these foes. He won the Maple Leaf Trot and did so from the 8 hole at Mohawk. Here he has the 9 hole but there is a lot of speed on the inside that can configure the closing speed he can generate. But these are some powerful players and among them may be an overlay in Mister Herbie or Wishing Stone. Cases for them can be made in upset scenarios, with the latter probably offering the best price and certainly they belong in exotics with Market Share, and in that order of preference. 
     
    New Jersey Classics 
     
    The $250,000 Anthony Abbatiello New Jersey Classic hosts the day’s glamour-boy pacers, all state-breds. We suspected Real Rocker to show improvement with victory in the prep last week but an odd break at the start didn’t give us the race we wanted from him. He is up against a bigger challenge this week, with classy horses like Word Power and Rockin Amadeus playing major roles in the development in the race. But a good draw for Real Rocker should allow him, as long as he minds his manners, to show us what he’s got.
     
    There is little to say about the filly "Classic." I Luv The Nitelife has towered over her soph-filly pacing competition and the Hambo-day program should open with a fiery mile from her that could defy her own speed badge. If you are looking for exactas, back her up with Ms Caila J Fra and Ideal Ginny; both could pump up the price a tad. 
     
    U.S. Pacing Championship 
     
    Yet again, the free for all pacing division has mapped another handicapping puzzle, this one the U.S. Pacing Championship, worth $213,650. There looks to be four likely favorites, providing a wide-open betting board. Though, A Rocknroll Dance may have not convinced some that he is the real deal. As we predicted in the William Haughton elim, he has come off of a layoff incredibly sharp, topping it off with a first-over bid to finish third. A lot of buzz is around him but don’t expect high odds. As well, there is one horse that plays a major danger and bettors may not see it. 
     
    Hurrikane Kingcole is a monster on certain occasions, especially when looking back to Hambletonian day last year. He was the favorite heading into the New Jersey Classic and used up all his energy for the first three-quarters, going to defeat by Panther Hanover, to whom he afforded the great opportunity of victory by burning up three panels. The “Kingcole” appears to be dangerous when the Sun’s rays bathe an afternoon; we saw it when he crushed A-1/free for all horses while the Sun was still up on Meadowlands Pace night. 
     
    Most handicappers will instantly throw him out after a perfect trip last week where he didn’t gain ground. That provides us with greater value on a win price. Be mindful, though, that A Rocknroll Dance is peaking at the moment and poses the biggest threat, so including both on across the board and exotic wagers looks to be a must. 
     
    Also-Trots 
     
    Many of the soph colts that did not drop into the box for the Hambletonian for one reason or another will headline Friday’s two Townsend Ackerman (TA) miles at $50,000 each. The first episode features a field of 10 with all but two eligibles. 
     
    Bluto is here and remains a strong part of Team Takter but is a second-stringer since High Bridge became hot. Here, Bluto may rule and not as the choice, since Major Athens is looking like he will get the bulk of the win-pool dough. On the outside, Fico could make this mile complicated, since he has been improving and most of us thought he would drop into the Hambo box. 
     
    Originally assigned the 10 hole in the second TA, Banco Solo scratched and dropped into the Hambo box. This leaves 10 colts, all eligibles but for a pair. It’s tough to say how well Per Henrikson’s Exemplar can race but this field should test his ability, which has been improving at Mohawk in conditioned affairs. Per’s Hambo hopeful couldn’t get in the swing of it in time to take on the top tier but he may be positioned well here and deserves attention while he may still pay a great price. Linda Toscano’s Raven Victory will get a lot of play and should be tough from the rail, while the third choice with a chance and a price has to be Deadliest Catch, who shows sleek improvement and is the freshest of them all. 
     
    On the filly side, there are two Duenna splits worth $30,000 each. These fillies didn’t make it into the “Oaks.”  
     
    Split one finds our support with Southwind Cocoa, who had a rough time in her Oaks elim, surrounded by traffic and breakers. The crowd should go for True Day Dream, who has been stakes placed in her last five outings. She may rightfully be the choice but “Cocoa” may go back to her Tioga-win form, a race where she was good enough to be backed in the Oaks. 
     
    Split two is weaker than the first and has only one filly with a pair of victories. On the wood, Perfect Alliance comes off a dull effort where she was close to being the choice based on keeping some tough company. She will be overlooked for top choice again, with Silver Credit and Cupcake getting the most attention. 
     
    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • Creating Your Own Systems & Angles

    POSTED By Derek Simon
    Recently, after telling a Facebook friend that my Win Factor and Pace Profile reports were best used in conjunction with one’s own handicapping or as the basis of a system or angle, I was asked a great question: “OK, so how do I come up with an angle?”

    Indeed. It is a question that has no easy answer. To me, developing a winning system — and the “winning” part should be stressed; anybody can develop a losing system — is part science, part art, part long nights and strong booze.

    Let me start by giving some advice on what not to do: Don’t try to string a bunch of positive impact-value factors together. Although this sounds like a great idea, in reality it doesn’t work.

    For example, according to my database studies, horses with the best last-race Brisnet speed figure have an impact value of 2.05 — meaning that they win approximately twice as often as expected (impact values are computed by dividing the percentage of winners showing a particular characteristic by the percentage of entrants possessing that characteristic). Those same studies also reveal that horses with the highest BRIS Power Rating have a 2.49 IV.

    Now, according to the more ardent impact-value handicappers, combining these factors should result in an IV in the neighborhood of 5.10 (2.05 x 2.49). Others are less optimistic, but still believe that the IV will be considerably higher than 2.49 (the higher IV of the two).

    The actual IV? 2.82.

    To put this in perspective, race favorites (excluding entries and/or multiple top betting choices) yield a 2.76 IV. Worse, none of these impact-value angles account for the odds, or ROI. And, as I stated at the outset, that is ultimately what we are concerned with. Horses with the best last-race speed figure yield a 17.1 percent loss; animals with the best BRIS Power Rating show a 14.9 percent loss; and the two factors combined produce a 15.9 percent loss.

    Of course, many impact-value handicappers have a solution to this value conundrum.

    “Just insist on higher odds,” they say, presumably with an indulgent smile.

    OK, let’s do that. Since horses with the highest last-race Brisnet speed figure and best BRIS Power Rating win approximately 38 percent of the time according to my studies, let’s insist on odds of 9-5, which, in theory, should result in a 5-6 percent ROI. (No point in being greedy and seeking higher odds.)

    Sadly, this “fair odds” requirement didn’t produce the money tree that we’d hoped for. In fact, it produced just the opposite. Not only did we lower the impact value of these combined factors to 1.76, but we also increased the negative ROI to -19.6 percent, worse than any of the individual factors.

    Naturally, this raises the question: Is there a way to stem all this red ink or am I simply trying to squash everybody’s dream of racetrack riches?

    The answer is no… no, I’m not trying to squash everybody’s dream of racetrack riches, that is. There are solutions to the issues I presented. While I don’t have the space to get very in-depth, here are some general guidelines to adhere to when developing your own systems and methods:

    1) Try to use unique criterion. One of the reasons that impact values don’t ascend like some handicappers expect them to when positive-IV factors are combined is because the factors overlap.

    For instance, I am reasonably sure that the BRIS Power Ratings take speed into account, so combining them with the best last-race speed figure as we did above is, in effect, double-weighting speed as a factor.

    That’s OK in some instances, but one should at least be aware of what they are doing.

    2) Related to the above, make sure that your rules make sense and that they work together. If you think last-race form is important — I certainly do — than you absolutely, positively need to impose a date requirement on that race. After all, is it really logical to credit a horse for a great last race (however one defines that) when it was run two years ago? I think not.

    3) Follow the KISS (keep-it-simple-stupid) principle whenever possible. Many a novice player goes astray by trying to make their angles/systems too complex. Unless you are using mathematical regression techniques or other advanced mathematical procedures to weight the factors you are using, stick with what you know.

    None of my angles take body language into account. Why? Because nine times out of 10 I can’t spot it, much less quantify it.

    4) This has been a key to my own success: Try to make your techniques as broad and universal as possible — don’t over-optimize.

    You will find that you can usually unearth profitable angles in any subset of data, but in doing so you run the very great risk of what some have called the “backtest fallacy.” In other words, as you pare down the data, you wind up fitting it to your preconceived notions, as opposed to the other way around.

    Hence, when you apply your “wonder system” to new data, it crumbles like Anthony Weiner’s political aspirations… again.
    I hope these rules help. I’ll end this piece with a sampling of my own angle/method spot plays for Wednesday, July 31:

    Performance Rating Angle Plays
    Bet to win at even odds (1-1) or greater

    BEU1: 2-Maestro Miss (2-1 on the morning line)
    DEL1: 5-Its Looking (7-2)
    DEL7: 7-Upside Down (3-1)
    NP2: 5-Kool Shazoom (8-5)
    NP4: 4-Passion Red (8-1)
    TDN2: 7-Sky Kerridge (3-1)

    Top Form Plays

    BEU2: 4-Swayze Lady (2-1)
    NP8: 5-Masked Man (15-1)
    PEN4: 1-Crimson Chrome (6-1)

    Top-LSR Plays

    BOI10: 3-Escaping the Storm (8-1)
    SAR4: 4-Rakin’ Gold (12-1)

  • It's OK to be wrong as long as you get paid when you're right

    POSTED Jul 30, 2013 By Unknown
    What do Rich Perloff and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool have in common? Neither hit the Pick 6 on Monday at Saratoga.

     The difference, though, is that Perloff could have while TwinSpires.com should have. The former because Perloff gave out an $80 play that would have hit for ~$50k (if he had been in the pool). The latter because the players pool had roughly the same opinions in the last three races that would have allowed Perloff to connect. The biggest difference being that even with $50,000 compared to Perloff's $80, the TwinSpires.com Players Pool couldn't find race 7 (leg 3) winner Jade Run despite going four deep in a race Perloff only needed two bullets.

     Perloff got some razzing for not playing his ticket, but most people were impressed not only with his handicapping (he essentially hit a 275-to-1 Pick 4 using only two combos) but also his bet structure; count me among the latter group.

     Perloff works for a company with similar goals as my employer: Educate horseplayers and make horse racing fun. His Pick 6 strategy certainly educated me. I wrote that missing the leg 3 winner was our critical error. While that's true from a which-race-did-you-miss standpoint (we had 14 consolation payouts, but the consolation rarely is one) the critical error was not leaning harder on our strongest opinions.

     The size of the Players Pool doesn't mean we have more things to be right about, it means we can afford to be wrong sometimes if we're "really right" about some other thoughts. There's no reason liking the winners of races 8, 9, & 10 as much as we did that we shouldn't have spread a little bit earlier. We don't mind being wrong about a race, but it stings to be right and still not get paid. Perloff did his job in that regard. It was clear what needed to go right for his ticket to cash.

     I don't consider myself a tout or public handicapper. I love the game and share opinions on social media just as brazenly as I do at the Paddock Bar at Keeneland. The Players Pool is a shared experience too. We pool our money and try to have some fun. Yes, winning is more fun than losing, but handicapping is fun, too, as is leaning from our experiences.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 27, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    It was an extremely profitable weekend for this department, including suggestions from our Thursday blog and on-the-spot tweets from @RayCotolo during the Adios program at the Meadows, July 27. 
     
    Blog-wise, our Friday, July 26 choices for two major Grand Circuit affairs at the Meadows, were spot on with winners. We handled soph-colt-and-filly trots in the Arden Downs on the main blog and backed a winner Maxamillus, paying $14.60, in the first colt split. We followed that with a win in a filly division, Upfrontluckycarol, who paid $14.20. Our two other choices in the other colt and filly Arden Downs broke at the start and were eliminated from contention. 
     
    We lost the Adios main event, finishing third with Word Power (6-1) but we won the Adios Consolation with Martini Hanover, paying $22. Adioo Volo, the Adios’ filly version, was also ours in the win column with Niki Beach. She paid $10.80. 
     
    The other soph-trotting events, a pair of Hambletonian Oaks elims, an Open for the colts and the Yonkers Trot are reviewed in detail at the Hambletonian Society’s special archive page featuring our Hambletonian Trail stories. See below for a reminder on next week’s exclusive live reporting from the Meadowlands. 
     
    H2W 
    There were 25 horses on this week’s H2W list; nine were first, second or third. 
     
    $4.80 Moonglow, Pompano  
     
    The following are the horses that finished second or third along with their post-time odds. Special notes on those finishes follow. 
     
    Seconds:
    Lis Rain (7-1), Vernon; Wheelaway (2-1), Vernon; Contech (47-1), Northfield; That’s My Dream (25-1), Saratoga 
     
    Thirds:
    Coolwater Wildrose (36-1), NorthfieldUlay Boko (2-1), Vernon; Sri Panka (7-1), Vernon; Driven By Destiny (8-5), Running Aces 
     
    Payoff Points 
     
    Contech paid $32.60 to place and $15.40 to show. That’s My Dream ($9 to place) was second to the public choice, igniting a $42.20 Exacta.
     
    All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.  
     
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Tremendous Tweets

    In our Thursday, Aug. 1 blog we will be dealing extensively with the Hambletonian stakes program for Aug. 3. Again this year, we will be on board at the Meadowlands that day and the night before, tweeting picks, news, quotes, data and other information coming from insiders around the oval. If you haven’t done so already, be sure to follow Frank and Ray Cotolo on Twitter to take advantage of any and all on-the-scene information—it’s exclusive to TwinSpires, which is the sole ADW that covers harness racing in great detail and with profit in mind.

    Speaking of tweets, here is a detailed report on Adios-program tweets. For all of the players wagering win, place and show, we have included the payoffs in the pools with a total amount for where they paid on the board. Each entry includes race number, horse tweeted (odds off), finishing position and total amount returned from wherever the horse finished in payoff positions (for first, win price is noted). On the bottom of the chart are the totals for win profits and across-the-board plays.

    Race 1, All Heart Gal (11-1), second, $18.60
    Race 2, Miss Pinky Pie (7-1), sixth
    Race 3, Im A Nice Sky (10-1), eighth
    Race 4, I Am Passionate (11-1), third, $4.60
    Race 5, Lookinforadventure (15-1), first, $32.40, $51.00
    Race 6, Cam B Zipper (5-1), fourth
    Race 7, Martini Hanover (10-1), first, $22.00, $33.60
    Race 8, Power Pack Hanover, (5-2), sixth
    Race 9, Cimamony (7-1), second DQ placed eighth
    Race 10, Invictus Hanover (9-2), first, $11.40, $17.80
    Race 11, Very Loudly (15-1), fourth
    Race 12, Word Power (6-1), third, $3.40
    Race 13, Nikki Beach (4-1), first, $10.80, $21.80
    Race 14, A Plus Hanover (4-1), fifth
    Race 15, Bristol Bay (5-1), second, $5.20
    Race 16, Dontmeswiththebest (5-2), second, $5.20
    Race 17, Allie’s Dragon (24-1), sixth

    Totals (based on $2 wagers)

    Win bets investment, $34.00
    Win best return, $76.60
    Across-the-board investment, $102.00
    Across-the-board return, $161.20

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.  

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog. 
     

     
    Cartoons by Thom Pye
  • POSTED By Unknown
    Day eight of the Saratoga Race Course meeting features two Grade 1 races, and in a testament to the lure of the three-year-old male division, a Grade 2 that many will view as the feature.

     It's certainly likely to be the feature of my wagering strategy, as I've made Mylute a lone "A" in the Jim Dandy Stakes. I don't know if we'll get 7-to-2, but I'd be thrilled with 5-to-2 considering he's getting weight as the fastest horse. As I learned to say in Maryland, "C'mon Rosie!"

     The rest of the day should be just as exciting with old warriors leading into a pair of baby races in the early Pick 3. Kauai Katie should dazzle in the Prioress, and since the Diana is so competitive I'm going with the longest shot on the board--Laughing--in a contest I'm in.


    Good luck to all!

  • Academic Handicapping

    POSTED Jul 25, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Most serious horse players have heard of Tom Ainslie, Andrew Beyer, Steve Davidowitz and Bill Quirin, all of whom are respected authors who changed the Sport of Kings in both obvious and subtle ways. Ainslie gave race analysis, or “handicapping,” credibility; Beyer brought speed figures to the masses; Davidowitz made the “key race” and “track bias” part of the gambler’s lexicon; and Quirin provided statistical insights never before seen in racing texts.

    Yet the contributions of these turf luminaries pale in comparison to those made by R. M. Griffith, William Ziemba, Randall Chapman and others… whose names provoke only blank stares and a collective “who?” from most racetrack patrons.

    Bill Benter, considered by many to be the most successful horse bettor of all time, credits Chapman with inspiring the program that — literally — changed his fortunes.

    In researching various betting strategies, Benter ran across Chapman’s 1986 paper “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races” and was captivated.

    “It was really a breakthrough for me,” Benter told Contingencies magazine. “If I hadn’t found that paper, I might’ve given up. The problem was so brilliantly analyzed. The approach he outlined in the paper was theoretically absolutely sound.”

    “I still credit (Chapman) with my great success,” Benter continued. “I met him several times over the years, and I thank him profusely. It’s good for guys like that to know they can write a paper and change the world. It appeared in some obscure academic publication, but such a brilliant idea spawned a whole billion-dollar professional horse racing industry.”

    Although no precise figure has ever been given, it is estimated that Benter and his associates made in the vicinity of $37 million a year during their heyday.

    Makes Beyer’s “My $50,000 Year at the Races” sound like chicken feed, doesn’t it?

    So why is Beyer the equivalent of Ringo Starr and Chapman the equivalent of Pete Best’s valet? Primarily it’s because Chapman, like Griffith and Ziemba, is a scholar — a guy sharing his thoughts and theories in, as Benter noted, “some obscure academic publication.”  

    True, Ziemba published “Beat the Racetrack” for the masses, but it was highly theoretical and mathematical — not once did Ziemba write about punching a hole in the Gulfstream Park press box or dropping to his knees and proclaiming himself “king of the world,” as Beyer did.

    But what guys like Griffith, Ziemba, Chapman and many, many other academics have done — in the murky shadows — is provide the framework for numerous well-known racetrack truisms… and a few myths as well.

    Because academic research on horseracing is limited, it is often dated… and that allows Regular Joe’s to compete with the Bill Benter’s of the world… kinda, sorta.

    For example, William McGlothin expanded on Griffith’s theory of a “favorite-longshot bias” (the still valid observation that the pari-mutuel crowd as a whole overvalues longer-priced horses and undervalues shorter-priced ones) by noting that favorites in the last race on a card are particularly underbet.

    McGlothin studied 9,605 thoroughbred horse races, primarily from California tracks, and found that shorter-priced horses performed best (in terms of ROI) in the eighth race on the card, which at the time of the study, was typically the day’s finale.

    The problem is McGlothin collected his data from 1947 to 1953 — long before simulcasting, home computers and online betting. Hence, I was curious as to whether or not this last-race “favorite-longshot bias” still existed today... because many handicapping tomes that I've read still accept McGlothin's findings as gospel.

    I began by gathering data on favorites as a whole. To keep things as simple as possible, I eliminated races with more than one top betting choice (co-favorites, entries, etc.). Here are those digits:
    Number: 14,505
    Winners: 5,409
    Rate: 37.3%
    Return: $24,400.60
    ROI: -15.89%
    IV: 2.76
    OBIV: 0.85
    Next, using the same criteria (focusing only on races with a sole favorite), I examined the last race on each card:
    Number: 1,596
    Winners: 551
    Rate: 34.5%
    Return: $2,659.30
    ROI: -16.69%
    IV: 2.95
    OBIV: 0.83
    Clearly, if my data can be trusted (and I have no reason not to trust it), there is nothing to the argument that favorites offer greater value in the final race of the day. While the impact value on favorites in the last race is marginally higher than the IV for favorites as a whole, both the odds-based impact values (see below) and the ROI figures indicate that such horses are hardly overlooked in the wagering.

    Cue the music, another racetrack myth bites the dust.