Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

We have no excuses for a poor weekend in the winners’ department. Our overnight features did not produce and neither did our attempts to beat favorites at the Meadowlands’ highlighted affairs. In fact, the winner we offered in the William Gilmour Final turned into a massive favorite.

The horses-to-watch (H2W) list results are below, not looking as impressive as they have over the past few weeks for a major reason. Last Thursday’s offerings were slim. Many of the horses expected to thrive did not race, leaving the list rather limp. A few tracks, like Buffalo, Miami Valley and Monticello, presented slim-to-none H2W members. Still, the list presents some successes. Don’t let this discourage you, we endorse the great across-the-board and exotic plays you can find through the H2W exclusively for your TwinSpires harness bankroll. One poor week did not stain our season, which has already produced many top-prices horses.

Also last week, did not rise to the occasion of Buffalo Raceway’s TwinSpires bonus Pick 4. For the first time in over a month we went winless, offering only one third and two seconds in six suggested contenders.

Remember that every Wednesday night TwinSpires’ 10-percent-bonus Buffalo Raceway 50-cent Pick 4 wagers continue. We assist with suggestions for your ticket via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway and have delivered some major contributions to the winning combinations.

The surprise favorite in the “Gilmour” final was National Debt. We underestimated the public’s eye on this unbeaten colt. He won and paid $2.80, $2.10, $2.10 (ok). In the Charles Singer Final we ran out of the money with Clementine Dream at 43-1.

In our overnight features at the Meadows, our second choice, another overwhelming public choice, Connie Keeper, won ($2.20, $2.20 [ok], $2.10) while our first choice, RT USS Chilton finished seventh at 15-1. In the second chosen overnight Brown Titan finished sixth at 8-1 and second-choice Incredible Dragon was fourth at 17-1. Failed choices from our previous week’s overnight features appear for the second time in the H2W list. 

H2W RESULTS

The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

Winners

Blessingfromabove, $8.60, $4.40, $2.80, Cal Expo
Dew N Doughnuts, $7.80, $5.80, $3.80, Meadows
Yo Cheyenne Rocky, $4.40, $3.10, $3.40 ok, Yonkers
Strong Hope, $4, $3.10, $2.30, Flamboro

Seconds

Cash Poor, $5.10, $3.90 (Exacta $14), Saratoga
Stand Guard, $4.40, $2.80 (Exacta, $13.40), Freehold
Four Starz Elder, $4, $2.80, Meadows
 All On My Own, $3.60, $2.20, Freehold
Garbarino, $3.30, $3.80 ok, Monticello
Mccedes, $3, $2.60, Meadows
Real Yankee Fan, $2.30, $2.30 ok, Saratoga

Thirds

D Mac, $5.20, Meadows
The Northern Dude, $2.30, Saratoga
Lightning Charger, $2.10, Flamboro

News And Notes

A 16-month contract with the Illinois Harness Horsemen’s Association allows Maywood and Balmoral parks to hold racing again. The opening of the 2014 racing season will take place on March 14 at Maywood. Balmoral’s opening weekend starts March 15. Post time at both tracks will be 7:10 p.m. (CDT). In a slight departure from its usual racing schedule, Balmoral will be dark on two Wednesdays, March 19 and March 26 before continuing with its usual Wednesday, Saturday, Sunday racing schedule. Maywood will race on Thursdays and Fridays as usual.

The rugged Foiled Again made his 2014 bow for the Ron Burke barn in a qualifier at the Meadowlands and showed no ware for the worn as he defeated Bettor’s Edge in 1:53. Also returning with a sharp prep for Team Burke was Charisma Hanover in a 1:53.2 romp over 2013 Breeders Crown-winner Shelliscape. Summertime Lea is another four-year-old mare making her 2014 debut for Burke and she finished strongly to win in 1:52.3. And Burke’s Sweet Lou is back for a five-year-old campaign and qualified with a win in 1:52.1 mile with a 26.4 final panel under no Matt Kakaley urging.

Buffalo Raceway has added Thursday, March 27 to its racing schedule. The race card gets underway at 5 p.m. Racing at Buffalo continues throughout March on Wednesday and Thursday with a 5 p.m. post and Saturda,y which starts at 6:40 p.m. Racing in April will take place Wednesdays at 5 p.m. and 6:40 on Fridays and Saturdays at 6:40 p.m.

The winter rehabilitation for Hambletonian-winner Royalty For Life is reportedly older. The four-year-old trotter will work out of the Massachusetts stable of George Ducharme after recuperating from surgery. “He is supposed come April 1 when I'll be moving the stable to Vernon Downs,” said Ducharme. “Royalty” underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from a knee last fall. Surgeons said the operation went perfectly and the horse’s prospects to race again are great. Royalty was scratched from the Breeders Crown Final after finishing fourth in his elim on Oct. 12, which turned out to be his final start of the year.

At Dover, reports track publicist Marv Bachrad, horses with long winning streaks dot the daily track race programs. Among them is Manhattan Rusty N, who currently, is king of the claimers, winning five straight. He was claimed for the third time in four races, this time for $30,000. Ideal American stretched his win streak to four, Fire In The Belly also is on a four-win skein and Spinfiniti has a three win-streak. The TwinSpires harness blog suggestion is to for these horses and wager against them with legitimate contenders because the streaking winners will be hugely over bet.

A list of 77 sophomore pacing colts have been nominated to the 31st edition of the Pepsi North America Cup. Headlining this year's group of nominees is the Dan Patch Award winner and undefeated Hes Watching, who set two world records last season along with six track records for trainer and co-owner David Menary. Though the colt had a frosh mark of 1:50 and $291,722 in earnings, he didn’t defeat any top 2013 frosh-colt pacers as his top performance in stakes races were in New York Sires Stakes. Arthur Blue Chip, on the other hand, banked $400,120 last season (and we supported him here when he paid the most for his frosh winning efforts) for trainer Dr. Ian Moore. Luck Be Withyou, the 2013 Breeders Crown champion, is on the list. He won five of 11 tries last year for trainer Bill Cass and won $363,000. Last year's Metro Pace winner Boomboom Ballykeel (a TwinSpires harness blog selection paying $23) and the undefeated National Debt are also on the list.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Woodward day at Saratoga Race Course

The battle for three-year-old supremacy

The winner of this year's Travers Stakes has a good chance to become the first champion three-year-old male to win the midsummer classic since Summer Bird in 2009 and just the second in the past seven years, third in the past 12, and fourth in the past 18.

Of course, it could be like 2007 when Street Sense became just the first Kentucky Derby winner to take the Travers since Thunder Gulch in 1995, but Street Sense ended up more like Sea Hero, who despite completing the rare Derby-Travers double, failed to earn the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male. Street Sense lost out to Curlin, who completed his season with a Jockey Club Gold Cup-Breeders' Cup Classic double, and Sea Hero somehow lost out to the late Prairie Bayou.

One of those two scenarios is very likely to play out the remainder of the year. If one of the Grade 1 winners entered in this year's Travers (Orb, Palace Malice, and Verrazano) were to win the race, then he would unquestionably be the leader in the three-year-old division, and it would take a Curlin-like run at the end of the year for either of the also rans to catch up.

Here's how I see the standings going into the race:

1. Orb--Sure, his Triple Crown season following his sloppy Kentucky Derby win was less than stellar, but he did earn blacktype in the Belmont Stakes, which makes him just the second horse in the past nine years to do so (Mine That Bird was the other). No question he lost ground in the standings with his Preakness dud and non-threatening Belmont run, but two Grade 1 wins--including the biggest of all with the Derby--has him as head of the class. A Travers win or a loss by Verrazano & Palace Malice keeps him here.

2. Palace Malice--I typically value Grade 1 wins over anything, but classic wins along with select Breeders' Cup races are essentially super Grade 1s in an era of too graded races to begin with. That's a long-winded way of saying Palace Malice's Belmont Stakes win means more to me than Verrazano's Wood and Haskell combined. Palace Malice also finished second in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and looked good in the Jim Dandy. A Travers win unquestionably moves him to the head of the class.

3. Verrazano--Hard to imagine a colt with this much talent is third on any list, and if Oxbow were still around he might even be fourth, but the top spot is easily within reach, as a Travers win would make Verrazano this year's only three-time Grade 1 winner in his division (a distinction Princess of Sylmar has already achieved in her division). A Travers win would also answer the pesky 1 1/4 miles question and probably set him up as the favorite not only for the Breeders' Cup Classic but also Horse of the Year and one heck of an exciting stallion prospect.

4. The others--A Travers win would get any of the other horses into the conversation as a top three-year-old, but other wins would be necessary to usurp the classic winners from the top spot.

From a Horse of the Year perspective, a Breeders' Cup Classic win seems almost a must considering who is pointing for that race and Wise Dan has a big shot at 5 Grade 1 wins by the end of the year (albeit at 1-1 1/8 miles on the turf).

In the video below, Triple Crown Insider takes a look at the Travers and all its implications, and Joel Cunningham and I agree on who will win the race.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 08/14 by TwinSpires Radio | Sports Podcasts

It's OK to be wrong as long as you get paid when you're right

What do Rich Perloff and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool have in common? Neither hit the Pick 6 on Monday at Saratoga.

The difference, though, is that Perloff could have while TwinSpires.com should have. The former because Perloff gave out an $80 play that would have hit for ~$50k (if he had been in the pool). The latter because the players pool had roughly the same opinions in the last three races that would have allowed Perloff to connect. The biggest difference being that even with $50,000 compared to Perloff's $80, the TwinSpires.com Players Pool couldn't find race 7 (leg 3) winner Jade Run despite going four deep in a race Perloff only needed two bullets.

Perloff got some razzing for not playing his ticket, but most people were impressed not only with his handicapping (he essentially hit a 275-to-1 Pick 4 using only two combos) but also his bet structure; count me among the latter group.

Perloff works for a company with similar goals as my employer: Educate horseplayers and make horse racing fun. His Pick 6 strategy certainly educated me. I wrote that missing the leg 3 winner was our critical error. While that's true from a which-race-did-you-miss standpoint (we had 14 consolation payouts, but the consolation rarely is one) the critical error was not leaning harder on our strongest opinions.

The size of the Players Pool doesn't mean we have more things to be right about, it means we can afford to be wrong sometimes if we're "really right" about some other thoughts. There's no reason liking the winners of races 8, 9, & 10 as much as we did that we shouldn't have spread a little bit earlier. We don't mind being wrong about a race, but it stings to be right and still not get paid. Perloff did his job in that regard. It was clear what needed to go right for his ticket to cash.

I don't consider myself a tout or public handicapper. I love the game and share opinions on social media just as brazenly as I do at the Paddock Bar at Keeneland. The Players Pool is a shared experience too. We pool our money and try to have some fun. Yes, winning is more fun than losing, but handicapping is fun, too, as is leaning from our experiences.

Day eight of the Saratoga Race Course meeting features two Grade 1 races, and in a testament to the lure of the three-year-old male division, a Grade 2 that many will view as the feature.

It's certainly likely to be the feature of my wagering strategy, as I've made Mylute a lone "A" in the Jim Dandy Stakes. I don't know if we'll get 7-to-2, but I'd be thrilled with 5-to-2 considering he's getting weight as the fastest horse. As I learned to say in Maryland, "C'mon Rosie!"

The rest of the day should be just as exciting with old warriors leading into a pair of baby races in the early Pick 3. Kauai Katie should dazzle in the Prioress, and since the Diana is so competitive I'm going with the longest shot on the board--Laughing--in a contest I'm in.


Good luck to all!

Pumped for the jumps, a steeplechase playlist

For me, a truly "only in Saratoga" phenomenon is that people who otherwise would not give another thought to steeplechase racing actually pay attention to the jumpers at North America's most prestigious race meeting.

TwinSpires.com Summer Showdown players would do well to pay attention, too, because a steeplechase lifts the lid on a ten-race card that features a $3,000 guaranteed pool for anyone who can make a successful $10 show wager on all ten races.

For the flat racing enthusiast, handicaping a steeplechase race can appear as daunting to him/her as that last national fence appears to a Thoroughbred after running and jumping two miles under 150 pounds, but just as that last hurdle must be cleared, so, too, must this first race be passed if you want to cash in on that sweet Summer Showdown moolah.

Rather than give you a pick for the today's steeplechase race, the $75,000 Jonathan Kiser Novice Stakes, I've prepared this play list to get you pumped up for the jumps.

I did not include Taylor Swif's "Jump Then Fall" for obvious reasons. Good luck!

ABC Double carryover

Cheering your favorites home

As the below video illustrates, there is no shortage of ways to cheer your favorite horse home when watching them race.

Unless I'm cheering for the number two horse (affectionately known as "the deuce") then I find myself most typically cheering for jockeys to get my horse home. In anticipating a close finish, I will plant my feet but lean with the rest of my body in the direction of the wire while making a sound that most resembles an elongated ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh to a crescendo of either jubilation or dejection depending on the outcome.


There will (hopefully) be much to cheer for on Wednesday when carryovers totaling more than $500,000 headline afternoon racing coast to coast. First there is the $245,278 Pick 6 carryover at Saratoga then there's the $238,499 Pick 6 and $46,740 Super High 5 carryovers at Del Mar. If that's not enough by the end of the day there's a $6,223 Pick ("Win") 4 carryover at Assiniboia Downs.

If picking 6 winners isn't your thing but show wagering is then check out week 2 of Summer Showdown, which is on Saratoga races this week after TwinSpires.com gave away $7,500 to seven winners last week. Six people swept cards Thursday-Saturday while the seventh winner on Sunday won $1,500 by virtue of lasting the longest. If nobody sweeps the card on Wednesday (or Thursday, or Friday, or Saturday) at Saratoga, then each day's pool carries over. Sundays are must-win days, and the pool pays out to whoever lasts longest.

Good luck to all those playing in any capacity on a big hump day! May your cheering horses home be followed by a dance to the withdraw button.

A Closer Look at Del Mar & Saratoga

(Click on image to enlarge)

Opening day at Saratoga

Below is the ABC grid for opening day at Saratoga. Six single "A" picks is the most I can remember having on a card, so it won't be hard to tell what kind of day I'm having/have had!



Steve Byk said it best when he wished everyone a joyful, safe, and profitable meeting.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 07/17 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio

Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

We've
Been
Through
This
Before:

Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.


But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

There were winners again from our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W) but also this weekend we were reminded the importance of being accurate with our records. We made a mistake with a horse that we accidentally omitted from the H2W and that error came back to bite us in our pocketbook. No one is a perfect, even veteran players and record keepers can make mistakes. Still, we owe our readers an apology as well as we need to forgive ourselves for the error. 

H2W

News And Notes

Jim Pantaleano reached the 6,000-win mark with two victories at Freehold Raceway on Dec. 14. His win in the 11th Race with Devine Filly got the 50-year-old Ohio native to the milestone.

Pantaleano drove in his first race when he was 16 at a matinee fair in Ohio and won his first pari-mutuel race at Northfield in 1985. His career best win total of 436 was reached in 2002, 2003 and again in 2010, while his best money won total of $5,659,812 was reached in 2011.

The harness situation is shaky in Ontario, with government actions to dismiss slots-earning shares to horse racing, so a few horsemen are moving their tacks south of the border.

Dan Gassien took a huge plunge, going south and west to now be among the new faces at Cal-Expo. He currently has six horses on the grounds with at least three more set to arrive. The 48-year-old horseman was literally born into the sport, growing up around standardbreds thanks to his father Paul, while his brothers also make their living at the racetrack.

“I always knew this is what I wanted to do and I left school at 15 to start working full time with my dad and my older brother Reg. I drove my first race at Flamboro Downs when I was 18 and got my first winner with my third drive.”

Working at Cal Expo is Gassien’s first time competing on a regular basis over a mile racetrack.

“When it comes to driving,” he said, “there are adjustments I’ve had to make as opposed to driving over half-mile and five-eighths tracks, where you have to be more aggressive.”

Dutchess Seelster, with Wally Hennessey up, scored in 1:54.2 at Pompano Park, tying the track record for mares set by Peace Corps in 1990 and equalled by Three Little Words in 2006. Trainer Don Glowacki handles the lightly raced six-year-old mare that has banked over $215,000 this year.

One Canadian has already been contacted for a role in the upcoming harness racing movie Johnny Longshot. Trot Insider has learned that Meadowlands announcer and TV host Ken Warkentin has been approached by Emilio Estevez to contribute to the feature film set for production and release next year.

Estevez wrote the script and will direct the movie about second acts and taking chances; a story of a retired thoroughbred jockey who begins a career as a harness driver.

Extraordinary Extras







 

 Cartoons by Thom Pye