Showing posts with label Futures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Futures. Show all posts

  • A Bright Future

    POSTED Feb 7, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Ask a veteran race goer what he thinks of Kentucky Derby future pool wagering and I suspect the response will be decidedly negative — like his response to losing a close photo finish… or to a “newbie” hemming and hawing at the betting window… or to a person wishing him a cheery “good morning.” (A lot of veteran race goers are kind of grumpy.)

    They are also wrong in regard to the pari-mutuel Derby future bets offered by Churchill Downs through various wagering hubs, including TwinSpires.

    The reason most players view future wagering in the same way they would regard a flaming bag on their porch is because of the uncertainty that such wagers inherently carry with them. After all, one is not only betting that a horse will be pointed for — and draw into — a particular race (in this case, the Kentucky Derby), one is also throwing down cash on the horse to win said race. And if Robert Burns was correct about the best-laid plans of mice and men often going astray, imagine the pandemonium resulting from the best-laid plans of men and racehorses.

    Still, that is no reason to snub the Kentucky Future Wager (Pool 2), which opened on Thursday and closes Saturday evening.

    Simply put, there is value to be had in these pools. Case in point: Since the inception of the pari-mutuel future wager in 1999, betting the “field” in each pool has produced a cumulative net return of $5.08 per $2 wagered — that’s a return on investment of 154 percent. And, in fact, Pool 2 has offered the greatest ROI (in excess of 200 percent) on field horses (those not listed individually).
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    So with that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of this year’s top contenders and possible sleepers:

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    COMMENTS: This colt has shown a lot of talent… on turf. But will that translate to dirt? I’m a little cynical. Plus, I fear that the price will be on the short side, thanks to the big reputation Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s homebred has.

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    COMMENTS: Distance may be a factor, but the son of Pioneerof The Nile (second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby) has made all the right moves so far.

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    COMMENTS: I like this guy — a lot. Not only has he shown vast improvement from his debut on Aug. 17, but I love the fact that he makes his move on the turn. That is a potent Kentucky Derby angle (witness Animal Kingdom).

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    COMMENTS: This dude shows a ton of early foot — maybe too much early foot — but I do like the attempt to rate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

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    COMMENTS: Right now, his reputation exceeds his ability.

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    COMMENTS: I suspect this horse might need some of Floyd Landis’ beer to get a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May.

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    COMMENTS: Son of Distorted Humor is going to have to show that he can come off the pace and win, but nothing — at least at this point — indicates that he can’t.

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    COMMENTS: I have a ton of confidence in Bob Baffert when it comes to developing Derby stock, but Midnight Hawk looks like an underlay in this pool.

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    COMMENTS: The missed training has me very concerned, especially since the explanation for it has been, to quote the old beer commercial, “less filling.”

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    COMMENTS: Given the fast pace, the colt’s performance in the BC Juvenile can be excused, but nothing else grabs me by the throat at this point. He looks like a Pool 2 underlay to me.

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    COMMENTS: Another one that needs to learn how to rate, but if he does…

  • Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 & weekend preview

    POSTED Feb 28, 2013 By Unknown
    The second (of three) Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this weekend, and unlike the first pool, some of the horses involved in this pool are running this weekend, so that changes the approach a little bit since what Overanalyze and Vyjack do in the Gotham at Aqueduct (free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) and what Titletown Five does in the Gazebo at Oaklawn will absolutely affect how they're bet in the final 24 hours the pool is open.



    For free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2, click here, and of course wager on the pools (and keep an eye on odds) via TwinSpires.com.
     
    I already have 13 horses covered in Kentucky Derby futures (see ALL BETS tab) with Verrazano and Orb being the two horses I'm most concerned with having $0 on. The former is scheduled to run next week in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs while the latter just ran last weekend, winning the Fountain of Youth. That means I'm more likely to bet Verrazano in this spot and pass on Orb until the final pool since he won't run between now and then. I.e., why take 12-to-1 now (based on morning line) when I'll probably get that same price in a few weeks when other horses emerge?


     Verrazano, on the other hand, is 10-to-1 here and figures to be half that price if he wins the Tampa Bay Derby in impressive fashion, which I expect. Still, 10-to-1 is light too. I think this is a pretty good group of horses, so even if Verrazano wins out he still might only be 3- or 4-to-1 on Derby day. That price then appeals to me more than 10-to-1 now given the projected record.

     Two other horses in similar positions to Orb are Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby. Neither is likely to run before the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes pool 3, so again, why take the projected prices now when you can get three weeks closer to the Derby and about the same price then?

    I ended up not pulling the trigger on the field last time, and no regrets yet at 8-to-5 considering the only horses I missed out then that I can't get now are I've Struck A Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five, and Treasury Bill. I didn't like the San Vicente at all, so SIU & TB are nonfactors to me. The Risen Star was OK, but I don't see either ISAN or PM as major enough threats at this point (& their price should still be OK three weeks from now). Titletown Five is precarious because if he runs well in the Gazebo he'll be an underlay, and if he doesn't run well then he's a nonfactor anyway. I might play him if he's a troubled second and then overlooked because you know Lukas will take his shot regardless.

     The only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager is this weekend (click here for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs), and I'm not as bullish on that pool because there's no other opportunity besides race day to protect your position. That said, the Martha Washington horses might be OK at big prices, and So Many Ways at 30-to-1 is intriguing on a sort of "out of sight-out of mind-overlooked" angle.

     I don't get involved in exacta wagering much, but an Oaks-Derby future double could be fun down the road. Good luck for those getting involved this weekend!

  • The race I most want to see & Derby futures

    POSTED Feb 11, 2013 By Unknown
    Not since Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta have two horses ignited conversation like the way Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom did following their battle in the Kitten's Joy Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Championship.


    Both Animal Kingdom & Point of Entry could make their next starts in Dubai, albeit in different races w/ Animal Kingdom likely for the Dubai World Cup on Tapeta Footings, and Point of Entry nominated to the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf.

     I don't necessarily share Pat's zest for seeing U.S.-based animals having an international campaign, but seeing Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom square off again in a race like the Prince of Wales over 1 1/4 miles at Royal Ascot would be a lot of fun. Throw in Little Mike and Horse of the Year and three-time champion Wise Dan, and wouldn't it be something if Americans had the superfecta at Royal Ascot?

     But seeing those four in the same gate would be amazing regardless of locale, and any of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, Dixie Stakes, or Manhattan Handicap would be a fun setting for such a match up since all three of those races are on classic undercards.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Per Mike Welsch, Point of Entry will not point toward Dubai and instead have what appears to be a more domestic campaign with the Arlington Million and Breeders' Cup Turf being major summer and fall goals, respectively. I bet a Phipps horse who won those two race plus another Grade 1 a la Little Mike would be champion.

    Anyway, doesn't sound as if we'll see Animal Kingdom take on any of his conquerors (Wise Dan and Point of Entry) again, but he is taking on the world, and that's definitely something.

    Following up on my future wager action, I had to call an audible late Sunday afternoon because seven horses at 15-to-1 or less plus the field at 8-to-5 meant some decent prices elsewhere that I just couldn't ignore. I ended up playing eight different horses to win at $20 apiece to bring my total Kentucky Derby investment to $200 with returns ranging from 3-to-2 to 11-to-1 on the 12 horses I've taken a position on.
    I passed on the exacta pool because I wasn't in a position to look closely at the will pays and didn't want to play "just because." In retrospect, probably would have been worth a few shekels to key box the field with the aforementioned eight horses I bet to win, but there'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done. I mean, I still have two pools and the race itself to put myself in a more favorable position.

     The final 10-point-to-the-winner Derby prep races are this weekend with the El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields and Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Then things really get interesting with the 50-point races since I project a win there almost certainly guarantees a spot in the Derby gate if more than 20 enter.

     Check this space for TCI weekend preview, free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, and TwinSpires.com promo info.

  • Finding value in pool 1 of Kentucky Derby future wager

    POSTED Feb 6, 2013 By Unknown
    My strategy in recent future wagers has been to play horses in the 20-to-50-to-1 range that I thought had a good chance of making the gate and showed talent enough to win it. It's a grind having many units tied up for months, but it paid off last year when I got about 3-to-1 on my money when I'll Have Another rewarded my confidence in him early (Derby week I switched my pick to Hansen, ugh) and returned $1,669.50 on $395 wagered.

    I think this year's offering (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs on the 23 individual horses plus select "field" contenders) requires a different approach, however, because three of the top four horses in my mind are far better than the next tier of horses. If the field and/or the other 20 individual betting interests take too much money, then I wouldn't hesitate to play Itsmyluckyday, Flashback, or Verrazano in the 15-to-1 range.

    What would make me shy away from Itsmyluckyday and possibly others as we learn more about their next targets is that they might not even run again before the second (or third!) future pool. It's important to ask yourself how dormancy could affect prices. If individual interests run again, those who run well will be shorter prices in future pools.

    In this pool, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary, and Shanghai Bobby might not run until Pool 3 weekend or beyond. I.e., there's a very good chance Itsmyluckyday could be 12-to-1 in this pool but 15-to-1 in seven weeks. Nothing will have changed except other horses showing capability (others will drop off, too, of course).

    That's not as big a risk with Verrazano and Flashback since they're both more likely to run again, if not by Pool 2 then certainly by Pool 3. Verrazano, in particular, has shown me enough talent that I'm interested in him if the 15-to-1 morning line holds up. Unfortunately, I think he'll be more like 12-to-1.
    Which brings us to the field. I can't imagine the super horse it would take for this option not to be favored in pool 1, and we certainly don't have that this year, but I do think we have enough good horses that maybe the field drifts a bit into the $7+ range for a $2 ticket, and I'm definitely interested at 3-to-1.

    I've typically shied away from the field because the aforementioned 20-to-50-to-1-range horses offer the most value, but there is a good collection of horses in the field that I suspect will be a part of pools 2 and/or 3 next month, which goes back into the concern I expressed for taking Itsmyluckyday now versus later.

     

  • The Kentucky Derby future wager question before a big prep race: Now or later?

    POSTED Jan 22, 2013 By Unknown
    Shanghai Bobby is the third consecutive undefeated two-year-old male champion to cap his Eclipse Award-winning season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but will the champ's three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park be met with the same zest as Uncle in 2011 and Hansen in 2012?

     There's zero chance that Shanghai Bobby will be the 1-to-20 Uncle Mo was when winning the Timely Writer Stakes, but he might be around the 9-to-10 Hansen was when second to Algorithms in last year's Holy Bull (at a one-turn mile; this year's race is 1 1/16 miles).

     I'd be beyond shocked if Shanghai Bobby weren't favored, but a deep field featuring Bern Identity, Clearly Now, Dewey Square, Frac Daddy, Itsmyluckyday, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Tulira Castle should keep the price in that even money range--especially since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (his first race around two turns) was so slow based on metrics used by people who can move an odds board.

     I'll have (what I hope is) the pleasure of being in Las Vegas this week both before and after the Holy Bull, and all of the probables above are listed for wagering on the Wynn's Kentucky Derby future wager pool (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of all horses offered).

     Derek Simon and I have talked about our approaches to future wagers on the TwinSpires.com podcast, and listeners know that Shanghai Bobby (15-to-1), Frac Daddy (22-to-1), and Dewey Square (35-to-1) wouldn't appeal to me at those prices, but Bern Identity (50-to-1), Itsmyluckyday (65-to-1), Tulira Castle (100-to-1) Sr. Quisqueyano (225-to-1), and Clearly Now (250-to-1) have more appealing prices.

     The question is, do I bet now or later? My thinking right now is that Shanghai Bobby is definitely the most likely winner of the Holy Bull but not of the Kentucky Derby. The way I plan to bet that opinion is to "let him" win the Holy Bull and if any of the horses at 50-to-1 or better run well behind them then still try to lock in those inflated prices.

     The risk is that if any of the $100+ horses wins (or runs a flashy race behind the champion) then that price will be gone as well, but that's a chance I'm willing to take since I think Shanghai Bobby is the most likely winner of this race but not of the Kentucky Derby.

    If you like Sr. Quisqueyano or Clearly Now those prices might seem enticing now, but they're certain to be among the longshots in the Holy Bull. Let's say they're 20-to-1 and a win would reduce either's price for the Kentucky Derby to 50-to-1. A $2 wager on them to win the Derby now would return $452 on Sr. Quisqueyano and $502 on Clearly Now. A $2 wager on them to win the Holy Bull would return $42. Parlaying that on them to win the Derby gets you to $2,000+. Even if they dropped to 20-to-1 after a Holy Bull win you'd be better of parlaying.

    Thus, there really isn't that much risk to giving up the big price if you really like them to win. Granted, you're still going to lose some odds if they run well, but it still makes sense to wait.

    For those looking for some pari-mutuel future wager action, Churchill Downs' first pool will be February 8-10, which is an empty week as far as points races going but follows a busy February opening of the Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, and the Withers.

     As a final aside, here is the previous ten champion two-year-old males and race and odds in their three-year-old debut. I think it's interesting that both Uncle Mo and War Pass bowed in meaningless races at 1-to-20 and then lost their next start before missing the Derby. That Shanghai Bobby shows up in the Holy Bull is a testament A) to the effectiveness of the new Derby points system, B) trainer Todd Pletcher's confidence in the champion, or both.

     Hansen, Holy Bull, 9-to-10
    Uncle Mo, Timely Writer, 1-to-20
    Lookin At Lucky, Rebel, 11-to-10
    Midshipman, off trail
    War Pass, allowance, 1-to-20
    Street Sense, Tampa Bay Derby, 6-to-5
    Stevie Wonderboy, San Rafael, 3-to-5
    Declan's Moon, Bob Lewis (nee Santa Catalina), 4-to-5
    Action This Day, Sham, 19-to-10
    Vindication, retired

  • Crystal Ball

    POSTED Feb 9, 2012 By Unknown
    My TwinSpires blog colleague Derek Simon inspired me to post my own line for Pool 1 of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands future wager, which opens Friday, February 10, and closes Sunday, February 12.

    I've included Derek's "fair odds" to compare with the prices I'm willing to take, and we clearly have some disagreement with Empire Way leading the way, as Derek lists him at 100-to-1 while he's one of the few I'd take a shorter price on.
    Judging by the morning line, Empire Way is likely to be a horse I bet, though Union Rags interests me a great deal at 10-to-1. I've never taken that short a price this far out, but he is absolutely the fastest horse to date. He wouldn't need to improve between now and May to win the Derby, and any improvement makes him a Triple Crown threat against this group.

    That said, the vagaries of Derby wagering make taking a short price this far out extra precarious because any misstep on the trail knocks a three-year-old's Derby day odds down significantly. Most recently we've seen this with Monarchos in 2001 and Super Saver in 2010. Both lost their final Derby preps before winning the Derby and both paid more in pool 3 of the future wager than either paid following pool 1.

    A similar situation could happen with Union Rags. He could be 10-to-1 now, lose the FL Derby and be that same 10-to-1 price in pool 3. It's no fun to accept two months of exposure with no reward.

    So for that reason I'm unlikely to venture into anything too low, but if I have a winning Saturday then it'll be hard not to parlay some of it on my favorites for the Derby. I do like looking at the 40- and 50-to-1 range because I can bet $25-$20 to win $1,000. It's a nice reward for relatively low risk, but I never look to get too rich off it because of the variance involved in betting on outcomes that have a less than 5% chance of happening. Day in and day out, I'd much rather hammer a 3-to-1 horse who I think should be 2-to-1.

  • I always believed in futures

    POSTED Feb 8, 2012 By Unknown
    The first future wager I can remember making was on Elloluv to win the 2003 Kentucky Oaks.

    As far as I know, Las Vegas race books have abandoned the practice of offering a future wager on the Oaks, but back then prices were available as early as January, and I somehow got the daughter of Gilded Time at 50-to-1 even after she upset Composure in the Hollywood. Subsequent wins in the Santa Ynez and Ashland Stakes sandwiched around runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks had me feeling pretty good about my position going into the first Friday of May, and although Elloluv finished a nonthreatening fourth in the Kentucky Oaks that year, I felt that I more than got my money's worth for three-plus months of entertainment.

    Admittedly, entertainment is about all I have to show for most of my future wagers. I had I Want Revenge at 50-to-1 for the 2009 Derby, the same year I had Regal Ransom at 90-to-1. Neither panned out, of course, but again, entertainment.

    That entertainment angle is something Las Vegas has sold very well on social media. When the Cardinals and Giants won the World Series and Super Bowl, respectively, lots twitpics began appearing and were retweeted celebrating big (sometimes life-changing) scores people made by betting on those outcomes when things seemed at their worst for both teams.

    Vegas loves these stories because it makes it seem as if the common bettor stuck it to the backs--that sports betting is a beatable game and that the big score is always only a bet away. Racing offers this same promise, of course, but does a worse job selling it.

    Someone somewhere is likely to have this year's Derby winner at 300- or 400-to-1. Those prices never last long, but $50 to win $15,000-$20,000 would turn some heads. I'm hoping Wharton gets it done so a friend and I can show off our $40 to win $8,000 ticket acquired last week. For whatever reason, stuff like that plays way better than "I hit the tri" or "I just hit a four-team teaser."

    A common lament is that future wagers never offer any value, and this is just not true. A current three-year-old in training has some chance of winning this year's Kentucky Derby. In the vast majority of cases, that chance is infinitesimal and would not offer value even at 10,000-to-1. But in some cases, a horse I to have a 5% chance of winning America's most famous horse race will go off 40- or 50-to-1 in Churchill Downs' pari-mutuel future wager.

    Because of the vagaries of variance, I don't see these as prime win bet opportunities. Tying my capital up for 12 weeks on a bet that I figure has a 5% chance of cashing is not a long-term strategy because the opportunities don't present themselves enough to A) make up for the times I'm wrong, and B) make up for the times I'm right but still lose (95% of the time!).

    But it IS fun to have a horse in the gate at high(er) odds and to brag to friends, colleagues, Roman, countrymen, etc. "I got him at 40-to-1."

    Click here for free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for Pool 1 of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Future Wager.

    The wagering is always interesting because of the gamesmanship that occurs with the heavy betting on the mutuel field, but I typically only look to play horses who are 40-to-1 or better. If Creative Cause gets ignored and is somehow 20-to-1 I'd probably plunge on him but otherwise I'm looking for > 40-to-1 on Dullahan, Junebugred, Longview Drive, Midnight Transfer, or Take Charge Indy.

    The field always feels like value to me, but again, getting 2-to-1 after tying my money up for 12 weeks isn't really that much fun. Of course, this is a big reason why the field does offer value. People looking for action on the Derby are far more likely to play individual horses rather than the field. Still, 2-to-1 would be awfully tough to pass up this year.