Showing posts with label Little Mike. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Little Mike. Show all posts
  • Dubai Super Saturday: Win a Cap, Earn 10X Points!

    POSTED Mar 6, 2013

    With Breeders' Cup Turf Champ Little Mike and Pacific Classic winner Dullahan prepping for the Dubai World Cup, the excitement building around the Super Saturday program from Dubai has never been higher. Plus, when you wager $50 or more on the Dubai Super Saturday program with TwinSpires.com, we'll give you a chance to win a Limited Edition Dubai World Cup Cap and 10X TSC Elite Points for all your wagers on the card.

    Here's what you'll get when you wager $50 or more on the Dubai Super Saturday card:

         -- A chance to win one of 100 Limited Edition Dubai World Cup caps.*
         -- 10X TSC Elite Points per dollar wagered on the Dubai card.

    Points credits will be applied as follows:

         -- All Players will earn 2 TSC Elite Points per dollar wagered to be credited the next day.
         -- Qualifying Players will earn an additional 8 TSC Elite Points to be credited by March 12.

    Be sure to set your alarms early this Saturday, as the Dubai card gets underway at 8:05 a.m. Eastern, 5:05 a.m. Pacific Time.

    Dullahan will appear in the 6th race on the card, the $200,000 Burj Nahaar (G3) at 10:25 a.m. Eastern, 7:25 a.m. Pacific Time.

    Little Mike will contest the 7th race, the $400,000 Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) at 11:00 a.m. Eastern, 8:00 a.m. Pacific. The Maktoum field also includes last year's World Cup winner, Monterosso.


    *NO PURCHASE NECESSARY: Valid TwinSpires.com account holders may enter the Dubai World Cup cap drawing without wagering by sending a postcard to:

    TwinSpires.com
    Dubai World Cup Hat Drawing
    800 El Camino Real #400
    Mountain View, CA 94040

    Only one entry allowed per Player, regardless of method of entry. Mail in entries must be received by Monday, March 11, 2013.
  • The race I most want to see & Derby futures

    POSTED Feb 11, 2013
    Not since Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta have two horses ignited conversation like the way Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom did following their battle in the Kitten's Joy Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Championship.




    Both Animal Kingdom & Point of Entry could make their next starts in Dubai, albeit in different races w/ Animal Kingdom likely for the Dubai World Cup on Tapeta Footings, and Point of Entry nominated to the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf.

    I don't necessarily share Pat's zest for seeing U.S.-based animals having an international campaign, but seeing Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom square off again in a race like the Prince of Wales over 1 1/4 miles at Royal Ascot would be a lot of fun. Throw in Little Mike and Horse of the Year and three-time champion Wise Dan, and wouldn't it be something if Americans had the superfecta at Royal Ascot?

    But seeing those four in the same gate would be amazing regardless of locale, and any of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, Dixie Stakes, or Manhattan Handicap would be a fun setting for such a match up since all three of those races are on classic undercards.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Per Mike Welsch, Point of Entry will not point toward Dubai and instead have what appears to be a more domestic campaign with the Arlington Million and Breeders' Cup Turf being major summer and fall goals, respectively. I bet a Phipps horse who won those two race plus another Grade 1 a la Little Mike would be champion.

    Anyway, doesn't sound as if we'll see Animal Kingdom take on any of his conquerors (Wise Dan and Point of Entry) again, but he is taking on the world, and that's definitely something.

    Following up on my future wager action, I had to call an audible late Sunday afternoon because seven horses at 15-to-1 or less plus the field at 8-to-5 meant some decent prices elsewhere that I just couldn't ignore. I ended up playing eight different horses to win at $20 apiece to bring my total Kentucky Derby investment to $200 with returns ranging from 3-to-2 to 11-to-1 on the 12 horses I've taken a position on.
    I passed on the exacta pool because I wasn't in a position to look closely at the will pays and didn't want to play "just because." In retrospect, probably would have been worth a few shekels to key box the field with the aforementioned eight horses I bet to win, but there'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done. I mean, I still have two pools and the race itself to put myself in a more favorable position.

    The final 10-point-to-the-winner Derby prep races are this weekend with the El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields and Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Then things really get interesting with the 50-point races since I project a win there almost certainly guarantees a spot in the Derby gate if more than 20 enter.

    Check this space for TCI weekend preview, free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, and TwinSpires.com promo info.
  • A Computerized Look at Horse of the Year

    POSTED Jan 4, 2013
    There’s an unwritten rule in gambling and politics that to get at the truth one needs only to “follow the money.”

    Popularized in the 1976 Academy Award-winning film “All the President’s Men,” the phrase was supposedly uttered by Deep Throat, the anonymous source that helped Washington Post reporters Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward unearth the Watergate Scandal. In truth — or at least according to the book of the same name — Deep Throat never actually said “follow the money” or even “show me the money,” but, hey, it’s still a great quote.

    In sporting circles, of course, the notion of following the money typically refers to the betting. After all, it is little secret that betting lines and pari-mutuel pools are generally efficient — certainly more so than polls and voting contests… which brings me to this year’s Horse of the Year award.

    While I appreciate that Horse of the Year means different things to different people, I wondered what the odds might look like should the top contenders for the award actually meet on the racetrack. Now, I’m aware that such a meeting would not necessarily prove which horse is best — a single race rarely does – but at the very least it would give one an idea as to who the public thought was best.

    Unfortunately, I can’t tell you how the public would have wagered on a Horse of the Year contest… I know, I know, I dangle the carrot and then I yank it away. However, I can show you what my computerized fair odds line looks like (the carrot has returned).

    Let’s start with some ground rules:

    1) Our mythical race is 1-1/8 miles long. Yes, I know that 10 furlongs is considered a “classic” distance and is, perhaps, a more logical choice. However, I wanted to find a middle ground for the milers like Wise Dan and the marathon runners like Little Mike.

    2) All the horses will be rated on their current, year-ending form and assumed to be coming into the race on equal rest, with the exception of I’ll Have Another, who was retired with an injury prior to the Belmont Stakes in June and, therefore, get an “unknown” (UK) Win Factor Rating.

    So, with that out of the way, the winner of the 2013 Horse of the Year award, based on ability and current form, is (drum roll please)…

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    I’ve got to admit, even though the rankings above are computer-derived, I can’t argue very much with them. I do, in fact, think Wise Dan is the most talented of the Horse-of-the-Year contenders and, regardless of the front-speed bias that many believed aided Fort Larned in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there is no denying that his effort in that event was superb. I also think that the gap between him and I’ll Have Another is justified.

    Of course, I expect that Groupie Doll’s fans will balk at the fact that my Win Factor Report ranks her last among the Horse of the Year candidates, but personally I think that’s fair. Remember, our mythical race is at nine — not six or seven — furlongs and Groupie Doll was 0-for-3 routing in 2012. In fact, the daughter of Bowman’s Band has never won beyond a mile.

    As for Wise Dan on top, that makes perfect sense to me. As I’ve stated numerous times before, I think he is a great talent and a horse proven over multiple surfaces and at multiple distances. What’s not to like?

    We’ll find out on Jan. 19.

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

  • Little Mike as Horse of the Year

    POSTED Jan 1, 2013
    I said it once, and I'll say it again: It's a shame that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta put together their best seasons in the same year (2009) because either campaign was so much better than anything we've seen since, and both stack up well to the very best campaigns of the 21st century (Mineshaft in 2003, Saint Liam in 2005, Invasor in 2006, & Curlin in 2007).

    I don't know which has been more diluted in recent years: The Horse of the Year award or the Breeders' Cup Classic's influence on it. A Classic winner hasn't gone on to win Horse of the Year since the aforementioned Curlin in 2007, and that streak is likely to continue this year with Fort Larned unlikely to get the necessary support, though I did vote him second for Horse of the Year and first among older males.

    All that said, it is Horse of the Year, and someone has to win. That someone is Little Mike whose treble of the Breeders' Cup Turf, Arlington Million, and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic trumps what any other horse accomplished this year.

    I try to remain consistent in how I vote for the award--especially given there has been no slam dunk since 2006-2007 when both Invasor and Curlin, respectively, were obvious choices. My recent HotY votes have gone to Curlin (2008), Rachel Alexandra (2009), Blame (2010), and Cape Blanco (2011), but I certainly understood why people leaned in Zenyatta's direction in 2009 and toward Havre de Grace in 2011.

    Why weren't they the choices for me those years? Well, the big thing I remember going back to was asking myself, "Which races would I most like to win?" The owner accepts equine Eclipse Awards, so I think it's a fair question to ask with the caveat that I disqualify the Derby from answering this question since everyone wants to win the Derby, but I don't think its winner should be Horse of the Year every year.

    In the case of 2012, I thought Little Mike put together the campaign I would most want as an owner: A Grade 1 on Derby day, the Arlington Million, and the Breeders' Cup Turf are tremendous prizes, and that they came at distances ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/2 miles while shipping all over the country makes it all the more impressive.

    Little Mike has some marks against him, of course. Some of the losses were downright bad, and it's fair to say that Wise Dan dominated the Mile division more than Little Mike did his division, but I'm big on Grade 1 wins, and I like Little Mike's wins at that level better.

    All three of my Horse of the Year finalists (Little Mike, Fort Larned, and Wise Dan) are returning for 2013, and with Wise Dan pointing to the Classic this could certainly be his year. Point of Entry was too good not to get a championship, but if Zenyatta could be denied HotY in 2009 then Point of Entry can deal with it in 2012.

    My complete list of Eclipse Award selections: 
    Horse of the Year: 1st - Little Mike, 2nd - Fort Larned, 3rd - Wise Dan 
    Two-Year-Old Male: 1st - Shanghai Bobby, 2nd - Uncaptured, 3rd - Violence 
    Two-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Beholder, 2nd - Executiveprivilege, 3rd - Dreaming of Julia
    Three-Year-Old Male: : 1st - I'll Have Another, 2nd - Bodemeister, 3rd - Dullahan 
    Three-Year-Old Filly: 1st - Questing, 2nd - Lady of Shamrock, 3rd - Grace Hall 
    Older Male: 1st - Fort Larned, 2nd - Game On Dude, 3rd - Shackleford 
    Older Female: 1st - Royal Delta, 2nd - Love And Pride, 3rd - Include Me Out 
    Male Sprinter: 1st - Trinniberg, 2nd - Shackleford, 3rd - Emcee 
    Female Sprinter: 1st - Groupie Doll, 2nd - Mizdirection, 3rd - Dust And Diamonds 
    Male Turf Horse: 1st - Little Mike, 2nd - Wise Dan, 3rd - Point of Entry 
    Female Turf Horse: 1st - Zagora, 2nd - Tapitsfly, 3rd - Marketing Mix 
    Steeplechase Horse: 1st - abstain, 2nd - abstain, 3rd - abstain 
    Owner: 1st - Oxley, John, 2nd - Reddam, J. Paul, 3rd - Fink, Morton 
    Breeder: 1st - Fink, Morton, 2nd - Fred & William "Buff" Bradley, 3rd - Jones, Brereton 
    Jockey: 1st - Dominguez, Ramon, 2nd - Velazquez, John, 3rd - Smith, Mike 
    Apprentice Jockey: 1st - abstain, 2nd - abstain, 3rd - abstain 
    Trainer: 1st - Romans, Dale, 2nd - Mott, Bill, 3rd - Pletcher, Todd
  • A truly championship weekend at Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Nov 3, 2012
    Any thought that I'll Have Another could win Horse of the Year if chaos reigned in the Breeders' Cup is long gone after the event lived up to its championships moniker with Eclipse Award-winning performances throughout the two-day, 15-race, $25.5-million extravaganza.

    Several performances were good enough to ensure not only a championship but also a unanimous championship. It would be extremely difficult to consider anyone except Groupie Doll, Royal Delta, or Shanghai Bobby for an Eclipse Award in their respective divisions. And he didn't race on Breeders' Cup day, but I'll Have Another is also a likely unanimous selection.

    Others probably clinching championships include Fort Larned (older male) and Wise Dan (turf male). That makes the loser in all this Little Mike, who won the Turf Classic, Arlington Million, and Breeders' Cup Turf but doesn't have the cache Wise Dan does.

    The Breeders' Cup Classic goes another year without its winner taking home the Horse of the Year trophy (it's been since Curlin in 2007), and the eventual Horse of the Year hasn't even run in the Classic in two of the past four years.

    Two-year-old filly will come down between Beholder and Executiveprivilege with Questing likely to win three-year-old filly. Male sprinter and turf female are up for grabs. In the latter category, Tapitsfly has two Grade 1 wins while Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Zagora only has one, but it was the big one. If Tapitsfly wins again this year that would probably shore it up for her, otherwise Zagora will probably get it.

    But overall, Breeders' Cup has to be pleased with the international collection of horses it brought together. A South American horse won the Marathon after qualifying via a Win & You're In race, Aidan O'Brien winning the Juvenile Turf, and a good contingent of international journalists covering the event.

  • Hooked On Speed

    POSTED Jun 1, 2012
    For years now I’ve been bemoaning the fact that speed has become a forgotten factor in American dirt races. With the advent of all-weather surfaces and more and more grass racing — both of which stress late speed — the new modus operandi seems to be: waltz out of the gate, gallop along at a glacial pace until the quarter-pole and, then, start running like heck.

    In his 2006 book “Jockey: The Rider's Life in American Thoroughbred Racing,” jockey Ramon Dominguez describes this style beautifully.

    “Once we leave the gate, I want to get [my mount] relaxed and just take it as easy as possible,” Dominguez related. “I try to be patient, listen to the horse and let him go wherever he wants to go. If he wants to be last early, we’ll be last. If the pace is very slow, I’ll try and stay in touch with the field without rushing my horse.”

    “Depending on how the race is developing, I’ll start going after them at the half-mile or three-eighths pole,” the champion rider added.

    Of course, some horses respond beautifully to this type of handling. As I noted earlier, turf and all-weather specialists are famous for their ability to rate early and motor late — even the frontrunners (see Little Mike below).

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    However, some horses perform better when allowed to stretch their legs early — and some simply must be given their heads in the opening furlongs to have any chance at all. In a previous column, Ichided jockey Chantal Sutherland for her ride aboard Game On Dude, one of these headstrong types, in the Dubai World Cup. Despite a 25.72-second opening quarter in that event, Sutherland attempted to rate Game On Dude and the horse responded with one of the worst efforts of his career.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    But, lately, there have been some encouraging signs that things may be changing — owners, trainers and jockeys are realizing (once again) that speed can be a potent weapon, particularly on dirt.

    First, there was Bodemeister’s catch-me-if-you-can run in the Kentucky Derby (I’ll Have Another could); then, there was Shackleford’s catch-me-if-you can effort in the Met Mile (Caleb’s Posse couldn’t).

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    In fact, few horses demonstrate the importance of letting a fast horse run fast more than Shackleford. In the five races in which he’s recorded a -8 early speed ration (ESR) or less, he’s won three times and finished second twice. In his other races, he’s 11: 2-2-1.

    To paraphrase the great American philosopher, Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, sometimes horses feel the need… the need for speed.


    Belmont Bits

    With the Belmont Stakes and I’ll Have Another’s quest for eternal glory now a mere week away, I thought I would share some interesting tidbits on the final leg of the Triple Crown:

    * Although it’s called “The Test of Champions,” recent winners of the Belmont Stakes haven’t exactly reminded racing fans of Nashua or Damascus. Since 1992, Belmont victors have won just 24.3 percent of their subsequent starts (28-115) — after having won 41.1 percent of their races beforehand (67-163).

    * Since 2000, only five Belmont champs had previously won a stakes race. Four of them — Summer Bird, Da’ Tara, Jazil and Commendable — had won just once prior to scoring in the Belmont.

    * A few recent bombs notwithstanding, the Belmont Stakes has actually been relatively formful, as the post time favorite has won 55 of 129 editions of the race in which the odds were recorded (42.6 percent).

    * Despite all the talk about the benefits of rest, every Belmont winner since 1992 raced within the past 36 days.

    * Since 1999, only two horses that competed in the Preakness — Afleet Alex (2005) and Point Given (2001) —were able to win in New York.

    (Click on image to enlarge)