Showing posts with label flashback. Show all posts
Showing posts with label flashback. Show all posts

  • Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game strategy

    POSTED Mar 27, 2013 By Unknown
    A streamlined version of the popular Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game begins this weekend, and with the most points available for winning the Kentucky Derby itself, the simplest strategy would be to select the six horses you feel have the best chance of winning the race.

    Unfortunately for me (and I'm guessing others) this isn't even close to optimum strategy for winning the game because multiple horses in my "top six" figure to be in the same race leading up to the Derby.

    There are 1,598 points available in this contest--170 in each of the seven Derby Championship Series races, 34 in each of the two wildcard races, and 340 in the Derby itself. I view a perfect score as 940 points: six 100-point scores in the DCS leg 2 races plus all 340 points in the Derby.

    Barring chaos, having multiple winners of DCS leg 2 races AND the Derby winner is far more important than only having the Derby winner, so even though I have Itsmyluckyday, Orb, and Shanghai Bobby all in my top five most likely winners of the Derby, I'll only use Itsmyluckyday for this contest because my best score with him and two other prep hopefuls is 620 whereas my best chance with all three in the Florida Derby is 480.

    But wait! There is not a single horse in the U.A.E. Derby that I view as a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat at this point, and that only leaves six other 170-point races. Can I really be expected to pick the winners of all six of them? Aren't I better off taking Shanghai Bobby and Orb than a stab at who will win (or even show up) in the wide open Blue Grass Stakes and/or Arkansas Derby?

    Here's who I know I have to have: Itsmyluckyday (Florida Derby), Verrazano (Wood Memorial), and Oxbow (Arkansas Derby). That leaves me three spots, and with the five-team limit I'll mix them up using the following scheme: the fourth spot will go between Flashback and Hear The Ghost in the Santa Anita Derby and the fifth and sixth spots will go among Palace Malice, Code West, Shanghai Bobby, and Orb in the Louisiana and Florida Derbys.

    Yeah, I'm giving up some 100-point expectations there by A) not including the Blue Grass Stakes at all and B) doubling up in the FL Derby, but I just can't ignore how strongly I feel about Orb and Shanghai Bobby being good horses.

    FULL DISCLOSURE: Part of my strategy is guided by having to compete against fewer people in the Churchill Downs Inc. employee league. If you're gunning for the top spot among ALL PLAYERS, then I absolutely would make at least one of my teams with obtaining the perfect score in mind.

  • Our first Derby Championship Series sure thing?

    POSTED Mar 8, 2013 By Unknown
    The question for me approaching the Tampa Bay Derby day card at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is not whether I will play Verrazano to win the feature race, but how I will play Verrazno to win the feature race.

    (for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby Championship Series races, CLICK HERE).

    The answer to that question involves the answer to another question: What will the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby go off at to win this race? If it's 4-to-5 as his morning line suggests then I don't see any need to get too cute in the multi-race pools because I view that as enough value for a straight wager. Mike Welsch of Daily Racing Form said Friday morning on "At The Races" with Steve Byk that he thinks the More Than Ready colt could drift as high as even money!

     Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic, and I think the only way I see those prices are if I turn him into that as a pick N single. The Pick 5 includes two other stakes, but the turf claimer as the cap on that as well as the late Pick 4 has me less than enthused. The all-stakes Pick 3 as is the Hillsborough-TBD double since I'm not overly keen on horses I expect to take money in the turf stake for older females.

     If I could lock in 4-to-5 right now on Verrazano I would and not look back, but the specter of 1-to-2 or worse when the gates open has me thinking I should plot a multi-race wagering strategy for sure.

     I have Verrazano ranked third on my Kentucky Derby rankings behind Itsmyluckyday and Mac The Man. The TCI boys have Flashback on top, and he runs on the same day as well in the San Felipe Stakes. Joel Cunningham has some nerves about both likely favorites. He's half right, as I think Verrazano airs (see above) but Flashback gets beat by Hear The Ghost.

    Jill Byrne also gets in on the race previews for KentuckyDerby.com

  • Finding value in pool 1 of Kentucky Derby future wager

    POSTED Feb 6, 2013 By Unknown
    My strategy in recent future wagers has been to play horses in the 20-to-50-to-1 range that I thought had a good chance of making the gate and showed talent enough to win it. It's a grind having many units tied up for months, but it paid off last year when I got about 3-to-1 on my money when I'll Have Another rewarded my confidence in him early (Derby week I switched my pick to Hansen, ugh) and returned $1,669.50 on $395 wagered.

    I think this year's offering (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs on the 23 individual horses plus select "field" contenders) requires a different approach, however, because three of the top four horses in my mind are far better than the next tier of horses. If the field and/or the other 20 individual betting interests take too much money, then I wouldn't hesitate to play Itsmyluckyday, Flashback, or Verrazano in the 15-to-1 range.

    What would make me shy away from Itsmyluckyday and possibly others as we learn more about their next targets is that they might not even run again before the second (or third!) future pool. It's important to ask yourself how dormancy could affect prices. If individual interests run again, those who run well will be shorter prices in future pools.

    In this pool, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary, and Shanghai Bobby might not run until Pool 3 weekend or beyond. I.e., there's a very good chance Itsmyluckyday could be 12-to-1 in this pool but 15-to-1 in seven weeks. Nothing will have changed except other horses showing capability (others will drop off, too, of course).

    That's not as big a risk with Verrazano and Flashback since they're both more likely to run again, if not by Pool 2 then certainly by Pool 3. Verrazano, in particular, has shown me enough talent that I'm interested in him if the 15-to-1 morning line holds up. Unfortunately, I think he'll be more like 12-to-1.
    Which brings us to the field. I can't imagine the super horse it would take for this option not to be favored in pool 1, and we certainly don't have that this year, but I do think we have enough good horses that maybe the field drifts a bit into the $7+ range for a $2 ticket, and I'm definitely interested at 3-to-1.

    I've typically shied away from the field because the aforementioned 20-to-50-to-1-range horses offer the most value, but there is a good collection of horses in the field that I suspect will be a part of pools 2 and/or 3 next month, which goes back into the concern I expressed for taking Itsmyluckyday now versus later.

     

  • Three preps and a cloud of dust

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.

     For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.

     Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!