Showing posts with label pimlico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pimlico. Show all posts

  • What could stop Orb in the Preakness

    POSTED May 7, 2013 By Unknown
    When the Preakness Stakes unfolds on May 18 at Pimlico Race Course, two things regarding the running of the race are likely to be different than the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands: 1) the surface, 2) the pace.

     And it probably won't matter.

     To say that neither surface nor pace played a role in the Derby outcome would be naive, but to suggest that Orb wouldn't have won on a fast track or with a slower pace or any combination of such variables would do an incredible disservice to the best Derby performance I can remember going back to the Barbaro-Street Sense-Big Brown treble of 2006-2008.

    Orb earned a 111 Speed Rating and 126 Class Rating from Brisnet.com for his Derby tour de force. Orb's Derby win was similar to his Fountain of Youth in that it appeared as if his closing move won the race, but really, it was his ability to make a big middle move (122 E2 pace rating) that allowed him to be in contention turning for home.

    That type of move is what it takes to win Derbys, and even with a fast track and dawdling pace at Pimlico, I'm expecting more of a Smarty Jones or Big Brown-type of performance at Old Hilltop than Mine That Bird or Animal Kingdom.

    I don't reference those last two horses as an insult, but rather to illustrate that both had too much work to do to catch frontrunners Rachel Alexandra and Shackleford, respectively. Orb's style will allow him to take control of the race, and bury it if necessary a la Smarty Jones or Big Brown.

    So is Orb beatable? Of course--they all are. But as things are now, he might be more bettable than beatable. He's fair value at 6-to-5 and maybe even money, and while I expect odds on, there is steam elsewhere (e.g. Departing) that might help the Derby winner to drift up.

    The biggest question for me will be what to do with Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents, my top and third picks, respectively, in this year's Derby. Both have shown the talent to win. Their best and any regression from the Derby winner makes things interesting, but it's really hard for me to play for their best--even at generous odds--considering the dreadfulness of their Derby runs.

    Derby also rans do just fine in the Preakness. Of the seven Preaknesses this century not won by the Derby winner, five had raced in the Derby: Shackleford in 2011, Lookin At Lucky in 2010, Curlin in 2007, Afleet Alex in 2005, and Point Given in 2001 with two of those (Lookin At Lucky & Point Given) being beaten favorites and another two being beaten second choices (Curlin and Afleet Alex). All seven had run well, though. Shackleford tired on the lead, Lookin At Lucky was beat by a rough trip from post 1, Curlin was jinxed by Apollo, Afleet Alex had a rough trip third, and Point Given chased a fast pace wide. I'm not saying they all ran great, but they all ran OK and had excuses.

    With Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday this year, I'm grasping at straws. Yeah, maybe it was the pace and/or the surface, but neither threatened at any point in the race. Itsmyluckyday was working out what looked to be a fantastic trip but just never had any punch. Considering his Florida Derby where it looked like he was going to win like a good thing then was no match for Orb, can I really run it back on him in this spot?

    It all comes down to the price you're willing to take that the pace and/or surface affected Derby runners, and what value exists in conceding that Orb is probably the best under any scenario. 

  • Preakness a classic struggle between pace, figure, & class handicapping

    POSTED May 18, 2012 By Unknown
    Bodemeister is one of the most polarizing favorites of a major stakes race in quite some time.

    As the 8-to-5 morning line favorite in the Preakness Stakes, we're not talking about lukewarm or mild favorite either. This is a horse who many expect to win the middle jewel of Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown, and even has respected national handicappers such as Andy Beyer and Bill Finley--two guys not afraid to go against chalk--firmly in the Derby runner-up's corner.

    He has his detractors, of course, but what makes him so polarizing is that many of those who don't like his chances to win (as I don't) also don't necessarily even like him to hit the board. I'm playing the race for Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or Went the Day Well to win the Preakness. I'll press on that trio in second as well and also include Cozetti, Tiger Walk, and Zetterholm underneath.

    Why no Bodemeister for me while others love him even as the favorite? Well, style of handicapping may play a role.

    If you're a pace handicapper and a fan of cliches, then Bodemeister hits you right between the eyes. If he's not lone speed in this heat, then he's certain to at least be speed of the speed. He shook off Trinniberg and ran champion Hansen off his feet in the Derby, and no one in this race appears to posses that kind of early foot. If anyone does challenge Bodemeister in the first half-mile he is doing so at his own peril.

    But lone speed still has to finish the race. It took a perfect trip for I'll Have Another to catch Bodemeister in the Derby, but the figure handicapper in me says that Bodemeister's effort is neither as impressive as his fast fractions have some believing nor is it an indication of what to expect in the Preakness.

    Bodemeister regressed in the Derby. It just wasn't as fast a race as the Arkansas Derby, and while the raw speed was second best, most figure makers didn't rate his Derby performance among the top three.

    From a form cycle stand point, the Derby WAS the bounce. Some are asking whether Bodemeister will bounce in the Preakness. Well, he already bounced in the Derby. The real question is if he maintains that form or moves even further backward. If the former then he could win this race about 20%-25% of the time making 4-to-1 fair value, but if it's the latter then he is a longshot to win and even 4-to-1 would be an underlay.

    All that is to say that 8-to-5 is too short for me, and I'm leaning in the figure handicapping camp more than the pace one.

    But what of class handicapping? Before the figure renaissance one of the most prevalent forms of handicapping was to assess who beat who and by how much. Bodemeister's two wins have come by a combined 18 3/4 lengths, but his last two losses were both second-place efforts to fellow Preakness entrants Creative Cause and I'll Have Another.

    I made the mistake of betting Summer Applause in the Oaks only to watch the filly who beat her last time out--Believe You Can--win again, and it's not a mistake I plan to repeat in the Preakness on an 8-to-5 shot.

    So you know who I don't like and who I'd like to see win, but let's cut to the chase and see who Toga Tout picks.



  • Why I’ll Have Another Won’t

    POSTED May 16, 2012 By Derek Simon
    After every Kentucky Derby, the question is inevitably asked: “Is this the year that another Triple Crown champion is crowned?” And every year — for 32 years — the answer has been the same: no.

    Will this year be any different?

    Veteran turf writer Steve Haskin seems to think so.

    “What can prevent [I’ll Have Another] from finally ending the Triple Crown drought?” Haskin asks in the May 10 installation of “Hangin’ With Haskin” at Bloodhorse.com. “This is going to sound sacrilegious and presumptuous, but the answer is nothing. At least nothing that he can control. Frankly, this colt has the sharp tactical speed to shorten up in the Preakness and the pedigree to relish the mile and a half of the Belmont. His fate could very well be out of his hands and that the only thing that can stop him is one of the Derby starters who were prevented from running their best race jumping up and running the race of their life at Pimlico or Belmont. And if I’ll Have Another should get by the Preakness, there will be a fresh Union Rags waiting for him at Belmont.

    “But all of that just may be moot. I’ll Have Another could simply be the best 3-year-old in the country at any distance, and as of now there doesn’t appear to be any reason why he isn’t.”

    Not surprisingly, I’ll Have Another’s trainer Doug O’Neill agrees with Haskin’s assessment.

    “He’s three for three this year and he’s shown an amazing amount of will to win as we keep stretching him,” O’Neill said. “He travels beautifully, I know he’s got the stamina, and I know he’s got the heart. We just need some luck maintaining what we’ve got now. There will be Derby horses coming back who will be tough and others who are fresh and talented who passed the Derby. But I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat his current form. He knows how to conserve his energy. Paul (owner Reddam) is a hockey fan, and he always says, ‘It’s only the first period; we still have two more periods to go.’”  

    So, are Haskin and O’Neill right? Will I’ll Have Another become just the 12th thoroughbred — the first since Affirmed in 1978 — to capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes?

    Well, if history is any guide… no way, no how.

    Look, we learned in Louisville that I’ll Have Another can rate off of fast fractions and still finish (previously, I’d had my doubts), but what we didn’t learn was whether or not the Derby champ can run well on just two weeks rest. True, that’s an open question for nearly all the horses gathered at Old Hilltop — only longshot Guyana Star Dweej has ever wheeled back that quickly — but the question is especially pertinent in regard to I’ll Have Another, who raced exactly twice in the 243 days prior to the Run for the Roses.

    What’s more, I’ll Have Another had shockwave therapy in late April. And while the colt’s connections have treated this with the same degree of seriousness that one might approach a bar fight with Shia LaBeouf (“It's just a pulse that brings blood to an area,” explained owner Paul Reddam), the fact is shockwave therapy is a medical procedure — one designed, at least in part, to reduce pain.

    Now if a horse that raced only a couple of times in eight months prior to the Derby needed medical attention to stay fit and loose in Louisville, how confident can one be that he will be able to stay on the muscle in Maryland?

    The fact is every Triple Crown winner won at least one race other than the Preakness on 14 days rest or less during their sophomore season and only War Admiral failed to attempt a similar quick turnaround as a juvenile. I understand that training techniques are different now — starting more than once a month is thought to be highly ambitious — but, just like anything else, experience matters and I’ll Have Another simply doesn’t have any when it comes to racing on limited rest.

    It gets worse.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Although Derby winners have proven to be very potent at Pimlico, having captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown 29 times in 71 tries since the order of the Triple Crown sequence was finally set in 1932, only one of the past six Derby champs with fewer than four previous starts as a three-year-old managed to win in Baltimore.

    The one was Big Brown... and he paid a whopping $2.40.

    It also doesn’t help that trainer Doug O’Neill is zero-for-the-last-five-years (or more) when attempting to win a graded route race on two weeks rest or less, whereas his main rival, Bob Baffert, trainer of Bodemeister (the Kentucky Derby runner-up), is two-for-five during the same time period.

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    It gets even worse.

    Though I’ve written extensively about the controversy regarding how fast last weekend’s Kentucky Derby actually was (see “What’s Speed Got to Do with It”), even if one accepts Beyer’s low 101 speed figure for the race, that number is still quite a bit higher than what I’ll Have Another recorded in his final pre-Derby prep (95 in the Santa Anita Derby).

    Since 1992, when Beyer figures were first featured in the Daily Racing Form, Derby winners that improved their final-prep Beyer by more than five points in the Run for the Roses are 0-for-8 in the Preakness. Using the same criteria, but substituting the Brisnet speed figures for the Beyer numbers, results in an equally abysmal 0-4 record.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    On the plus side, I’ll Have Another should get a great, stalking trip behind the likely pacesetter, Bodemeister. And if the “bounce” advocates are right and “Bode” bounces to the moon, I’ll Have Another should be in an ideal position to pick up the pieces late.

    But I’m not betting on it.

    ‘New Shooters’ Often Misfire

    Going hand and hand with the notion that returning to the races too quickly — within three weeks by today’s standards — causes horses unimaginable grief and stress, is the idea that rest and relaxation produces peak performances.

    Well, apparently the “new shooters” in the Preakness Stakes have yet to receive the memo.

    Since 1991, just three (of 123) horses that did not start in the Kentucky Derby won the Preakness Stakes — not exactly a resounding endorsement for “freshness.”

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    05/18/12 Pimlico Race Course
    05/19/12 Pimlico Race Course
    05/19/12 Simulcast Report (top plays from various tracks)

  • The Preakness Stakes (video)

    POSTED May 15, 2012 By Unknown
    There were no surprises among who the Triple Crown Insider cognoscenti selected in the Preakness Stakes. Joel and I selected Creative Cause, Ray picked I'll Have Another, and Jon tabbed Bodemeister.

     

    That trio will certainly make up three of the top four betting choices in the race with Went the Day Well rounding out the favored quartet, and there's good reason for that.

    As Ray (in the video above) and Steve Crist (on his blog) discuss, those who run well in the Derby typically do well in the Preakness. Derby winners are 11 for their past 30 in the Preakness, and while the Preakness win percentage for Derby runner-ups is not nearly as gaudy, the also rans typically run well.

    The "new shooter" mantle had a bit of a renaissance in the late 20th and early 21st centuries thanks to wins by Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Rachel Alexandra and "gusty" performances in defeat by Magic Weisner (second to War Emblem in 2002) and Scrappy T (second to Afleet Alex in 2005), but Red Bullet and Rachel Alexandra were both Grade 1 winners going into the Preakness, and Bernardini was coming off a graded stakes win en route to championship honors that year.

    There are no such horses with close to those kinds of resumes among the new shooters in this year's Preakness, and I am playing the race for one of Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, or Went the Day Well to win. Bodemeister would obviously be no surprise, but as the favorite against two horses who have already beaten him in a race (Creative Cause & I'll Have Another) I'll try to beat him.
     
    As the race summary from the Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs illustrate, the Derby starters are clearly the class of this bunch. Even the lowly Optimizer has an on-paper edge over the best of the new shooters.

    I'll return later this week with a closer look at the field as well as Toga Tout!