Showing posts with label ultimate breeders' cup handicapping package. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ultimate breeders' cup handicapping package. Show all posts

  • Players' Pool preparation
    Step 1, pre-entries

    POSTED Oct 26, 2011 By Unknown
    Pre-entries for the 2011 Breeders' Cup World Championships are finally available, and with their release comes earnest planning of how to wager on the blockbuster cards November 4-5 at Churchill Downs.

    The preface to step 1 is staying up to date on all the divisions throughout the year by watching races, reading Handicapper's Edge, etc. Doing that without overdoing it is a topic for another day, but the macro view is I try not to get too invested in a particular horse or race before the pre-entries come out because things are so fluid, but nor do I want to be completely surprised by a name or figure in the PPs either.

    Pre-entry PPs help put things in focus. I won't get to the point where I'm proposing to any horses, but I'm definitely figuring out who I like--as in like like--and hopefully some those quality relationships will grow over the next week and a half to form the base of my wagering for Breeders' Cup. Of course, sometimes you get to know a horse and realize, I'm just not that into you.

    As captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool, I'm responsible for wagering $100,000 on the races. The challenge at that price point becomes not picking winners--we have the capital to use most horses in most races (a 5x5x5x5x5x5 pick six costs $31,500)--but to structure the bets to optimize the syndicate's chances of winning money. Spending $50,000 on the Ultra Pick Six on Saturday and cashing for half that amount is not exciting. The pre-entry period is great for parsing each race and figuring out where to zig when others might zag or when to single when others might spread (or vice versa).

    Using last year as an example, using Dakota Phone was unquestionably the key to a pick six that paid $800,000. Having a strong opinion on Uncle Mo and Goldikova turned the rest of the sequence into a $2 pick four. I realize that's easy to say in hindsight, but to me, the best opinion to have last year isn't necessary "Dakota Phone will win" but "Uncle Mo and Goldikova will win and the other races are more open."

    I'm not sure who the Uncle Mo or Goldikova is this year if there even is one, let alone two, but having $100,000 means you don't necessarily need a single. To me, being able to use three horses with 90% confidence of getting through a race is far more powerful than a single who's 50% to win. That single is obviously a great win bet at 3-to-2 and certainly offers value exotic wagers, too, but you're still a coin flip away from elimination.

    And that's what this period is all about. I want to identify the races that are worth having the strongest opinion on and build my tickets around those opinions.

  • Players' Pool excitement

    POSTED Oct 25, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the items on my job description I was most excited about when I signed on as director of marketing at Bloodstock Research Information Services was the role of captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool.

    I'm a big believer in syndicate betting for two reasons: A) I think it gives all involved a better chance at hitting a big number that still includes logical horses, and B) it's a great way to introduce bettors to the super exotic wagers that produce some of racing's biggest payoffs.

    Both points speak to the original mission of the bet when brisnet.com launched account wagering's first-ever Player's Pool for the 2004 Breeders Cup. The splash was immediate when the syndicate returned better than 9-to-2 to its investors by scoring five consolation pick six tickets worth $56,149 each for a total return of $280,748 on a $44,280 investment (it missed Wilko).

    My predecessor at BRIS, Rich Nilsen, was an inaugural panelist and went on to captain several successful pools for TwinSpires. Although I have no experience betting $100,000 in a single weekend, I have pushed through my share of big wagers on behalf of other people through the years as captain of my own Big Event Syndicate that showed a 6.12% profit across12 events dating back to the 2007 Kentucky Derby.


    The goal is not to grind a profit year to year, but to have the big score.

    Obviously I'm proud of a long-term profit in this game, but year to year being close to a big score but zeroing out always seemed more fun than breaking even. I get that something is better than nothing, but I don't think anyone puts $10 into a wagering syndicate really hoping for $12 back. Being alive for a chance at a 4-to-1 score versus being alive to break even is worth the $10 to go for gusto even if you roll craps now and again.

    And so it will go with this year's Player's Pool. Or put another way, if Breeders' Cup day chalks out, then we're going to lose. We definitely want to leverage our capital to catch the logical contenders who pay $20 to win and even some of the fringe contenders who pay much more than that (Midday was Players' Pool handicapper Jude Feld's best bet last year).

    Those interested for my thought process behind how we structured $100,000 worth of tickets can check out the multiple race wagering analysis available via brisnet beginning Thursday, November 3. That file itself is $5 but is included for those who subscribed to the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package.

  • Introducing the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping package!

    POSTED Oct 21, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the most common lamentations surrounding the build up to the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup World Championships races is that handicappers are susceptible to information overload.

    When it comes to good handicapping information, I'm of the school of thought that too much is never enough, but the key word there is "good" because one piece of bad information can negate all the handicapping you've done with otherwise good information. Think of it as a recipe. Fresh ingredients make the best goulash, but one rotten tomato can really mess you up.

    The main ingredient to your handicapping can mess you up as much as it can help if the ingredient is bad to begin with. I'm primarily a speed figure guy, but that doen't mean I'll handicap with any set of figures any more than I'd use sour milk to bake a cake. If that were the only dairy available then I'd skip the baking altogether.

    And so it should go with other information such as workout reports, analysis of European imports, and past performance data to help you establish class.

    The people who do this on a Tuesday in February should be the same ones you trust for the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, and that was the thought process behind putting together the brisnet.com Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package, which features Ultimate Past Performances, historical data applied to wagering strategies, workout analysis, European form reports, and full-card analysis for both days of racing at Churchill Downs.

    This is information packaged for Breeders' Cup but done by people who do this work all year, and that's the key for me.

    In each of the past nine years I've spent the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup in the stable area watching horses prepare for the big races, and inevitably people ask me how certain horses looked, and I have no answer for them because I'm not an assessor of horseflesh. It's a tremendous talent that is equal parts innate and learned, and I have neither of those parts, so I leave that type of evaluation to those more experienced--people such as Jude Feld, who is doing that work for brisnet.com this year.

    I enjoy European racing but don't follow it nearly enough to discuss the vagaries of class among its top stars. Past performances help me gauge their speed, but their overall form requires a more attentive perspective that Alan Shuback will provide brisnet.com readers this year.

    This is not overload but news I can use. When dealing with a finite bankroll to bet contentious races that produce overlaid payoffs, the fine line decisions on whether to single, include, or toss a horse from certain segments of a bet make all the difference, and good information leads to better decision making.