Showing posts with label pick six. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pick six. Show all posts

  • So easy a caveman could do it

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Playing 25,000 combinations in the Pick 6 doesn't guarantee victory (believe me, I know), but it does allow you to be fast and loose with the opinions.

     The question is, do you try to be really right in 1 or 2 races or sorta right in all the races?

     As a self-described disciple of Steven Crist and his ABC method of tackling multi-race wagers, I more often lean toward the former, but sometimes the better play (at least in retrospect!) is to just be sort of right on all races (the Crist-called caveman approach).

     The Players Pool is a fun and educational opportunity for TwinSpires.com customers, and since I'm one of those myself I try to have fun and learn from it as well. So what did I learn from yesterday's shut out?

     Don't force strong opinions.

     In leg 1, we leaned heavily on 4, 9, 11. The 4 finished second as the favorite but never really threatened the winner, who we didn't use on a backup that had two others. I'm fine with leaning on the three we did, but if not them then we should have gone deeper on the main back up.

     In leg 2, we didn't lean on anyone, really, going five deep to catch the shortest price in the sequence in $4.10 Kingston Bay. This literally was the worst-case scenario for us because leg 1 winner Nuffsaidnuffsaid was the shortest price of the horses we didn't have on multiple tickets, and we coupled her with the favorite on a ticket that started all with all.

     This was a deflating beginning because even though we were "live" it was tough to envision a scenario in which we could profit considering we were now down to two singles who both would be favored.

     So what could we have done differently?

     Well, we had leg 3 mostly right. Sure, we were four deep, but we were right to go against the favorite. We were wrong on our single in leg 4 (Roses For Romney) but the two we used on the backup ticket both hit the tri, including winner Lady's Lunar Luck. Leg 5 we thought only Racetrack Romance couldn't win, and the longest shot on the board obliged with a last-place finish.

     Leg 6 is where we should made the most of a contrarian opinion. I leaned on favored #4 Brandys Secret because I did see her as the most likely winner, but the feeling was if she didn't win any of them could, and indeed, the longest shot on the board Hunters Forward got it done at nearly 35-to-1.

     So how could we have stringed these together? Well, we couldn't have leaning on both Roses For Romney and Brandys Secret. Even leaning on one or the other was a path to ruin. We basically made it so one of them had to win, and given the air of vulnerability we thought both had, that probably wasn't the best approach with this size bankroll.

     In retrospect, I think we could have "gotten there" going 8 deep in leg 1 (again, acknowledging that we liked 4, 9, 11 most but after that there were 5 others that made sense and 4 who didn't). Leg 2 probably should have been our single if we had any, but this works even with the same quartet we did use. Leg 3 we were four deep. Leg 4 we use our single plus the two from the back up. Leg 5 we use them all except the overmatched 4, and then we use them all in leg 6.

     This approach basically is playing AGAINST the two favorites we ended up singling, but if we thought they were fair value at even money then they're still both going to lose 25% of the time. That's 3-to-1 odds, and this 8x4x4x3x6x10 approach would have returned about 9-to-1.

     Which approach to take is at the heart of every players pool. There was a pool in late June in which we decided to go against a big favorite. That favorite won, and while we "hit" for 6/6 the wager lost money. This time we decided to go with the favorites and crapped out.

     The game is humbling in that way, but at least when you do connect on wagers like this they usually cover the losses!

  • ABC Double carryover

    POSTED Jul 24, 2013 By Unknown

    The above grid represents my ABC selections only, and not the opinions of other Players Pool team members. Good luck to those in the pool and those playing Summer Showdown!

  • Winning underlay or losing overlay? The Players Pool conundrum

    POSTED Jun 27, 2013 By Unknown
    You are offered two games of chance with fixed odds. In the first game, you flip a coin and get 4-to-5 odds on your choice (heads or tails). In the second game, you roll a standard six-sided die and get 6-to-1 odds on your choice (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6).

     Which game do you choose if...

     A) You get one chance and must bet 100% of your bankroll?
    B) You get 100 chances but can only bet 1% of your bankroll on each chance?


     The coin offers underlaid odds but a much higher chance of success. The die offers better value, but you fail 83.3% of the time.

     So if I only get one chance for all of my bankroll I'm flipping the coin. My expected value is lower, but so is my risk of ruin. Sort of a one in the hand is worth two in the bush situation. Under the "B" scenario I'm rolling the die. I'll win less often, but getting 6-to-1 instead of the fair value 5-to-1 on each successful roll makes it far more likely that I will profit.

     Balancing these probabilities is at the heart of multi-race wagering for me. Giving yourself a chance not only at success from a "hitting it" standpoint but also financially rewarded for the risk taken.

     The Pick 6 on Wednesday at Belmont featured a $248,140 carryover and a coin flip paying 1-to-2 in the form of Crackerjack Jones in race 5 (leg 2). 3-to-5 on the morning line, Crackerjack Jones paid $2.90 after winning by 4 3/4 lengths. He was never threatened, and in retrospect  was probably fair odds to win considering it's tough to see him losing that race more than a third of the time.

     The Players Pool took a stand against him, however, using him on "only" 42.82% of our tickets, which indicates odds of about 4-to-3. The thinking was that there was far more value in beating him than trying to hit it multiple times at the expense of not using longshots we liked later in the sequence. As it turns out, Crackerjack Jones won and none of the potential $20+ horses we liked ran a step.

     We correctly leaned on Strapping Groom, who won race eight (leg five) at odds of 23-to-5. We used him on 22.7% of our tickets (17-to-5), but made our biggest mistake in the first leg where Cay To Pomeroy faltered as the 1.55-to-1 second choice but as the top choice on our tickets with 48.9% (nearly even money) of our action.

     All that adds up to we backed the wrong side of the coin and was wrong about the die. We took the calculated risk to play the ticket to give us the best chance at a $500,000 score. We don't always play it that way. Sometimes I agree with the public that a horse like Crackerhead Jones can't lose, and we ask, "what can we do to hit this thing 10 times?"

     Even with all the dead money in the pool from the two-day carryover, a horse like Crackerhead Jones winning is never going to produce the watershed payoff, and that's OK. If you choose to flip the coin then make the most of the opportunity. But having $48,315 to put into the Pick 6 and not loving a 1-to-2 favorite put us in a unique position to make a really nice score otherwise.

     Here's to next time.

  • Weekend Handicapping Reports

    POSTED Jan 25, 2013 By Derek Simon
    With all the great carryover pools entering this weekend — $573,851 in the Rainbow Six (not quite the same as the Pick-6) at Gulfstream Park, $55,831 in the Pick-6 at Santa Anita, $3,777 in the Super High Five at Sunland Park to name a few — I decided that, instead of my typical column, I would instead focus on taking down some of these pools.

    Here’s the plan: Today (Friday) and throughout the weekend I will be posting a variety of handicapping reports, along with my thoughts on specific races. So be sure to check back frequently, as I will be continually adding and updating stuff.

    I’ll begin with a look at some of today’s races. Below are my top plays from tracks across the country, along with some Win Factor Reports (my computerized fair odds line) for Gulfstream Park, Turf Paradise and Sunland Park.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    Friday (01/25/13)

    Gulfstream Park (GP)
    Santa Anita Park (SA)
    Sunland Park (SUN)

    Saturday (01/26/13)

    Aqueduct
    Fair Grounds
    Golden Gate Fields
    Gulfstream Park
    Parx Racing

    Brisnet PPs with Simon Speed Rations & Fair Odds

    Saturday (01/26/13)

    Santa Anita Park

  • The Jazzman: from babysitter to Pick 6 hitter

    POSTED Jan 24, 2013 By Unknown


    Six years ago when “a crazy girlfriend” he had met at church dragged The Jazzman to Palm Beach Kennel Club to babysit her kid so she could bet the races, the South Florida musician never imagined he’d be playing the races from home let alone winning $270,448 on a $10 wager in the process.

    But that’s exactly where the blues player from West Palm Beach found himself on Monday when he turned a $10 Pick 6 play on TwinSpires.com into $270,448, and he’s taking requests on what to do with the money.

    “I have some bills to pay off, and I’ll probably put the rest into a money market account,” The Jazzman said. “I need to do something exciting, though. Got any ideas? I’ll probably take some swings at Gulfstream’s [$500,000-plus Rainbow^6] carryover.”

    The Jazzman is no stranger to small bets with big rewards. In 2009 he hit a $53,000 Pick 6 at Fairplex on a $4 ticket. For his more-than-quarter-million-dollar score on Monday, he played three tickets: a $2 ticket using all favorites, a $4 ticket using no favorites, and a $4 ticket combining his most likely winners with the longshots he liked most such as Renee’s Titan in the Santa Ynez.

    It was that last $4 ticket that hit for $270,448 as one of two winners of the bet on the day.

    “I got up Monday planning to play the Pick 6,” The Jazzman said. “The first thing I do is download the Brisnet past performances on TwinSpires since I get those for free when I bet and look at pace, speed, and class. Then I look at the jockeys of contenders. The thing I follow most is Southern California jockeys; I follow those jockeys like a groupie follows rock stars.”

    The Jazzman credits knowing all the jockeys in the colony—not just the stars like Mike Smith and Rafael Bejarano—with leading to his Fairplex score, and his faith in Tyler Baze served him well when that journeyman piloted Renee’s Titan to win the Santa Ynez over heavily favored two-year-old filly champion Beholder in her three-year-old debut.

    The Jazzman’s strongest opinion was in the last race with $6.20 winner Judge Carr. Live to only that horse for a monumental score instead of hedging with others in the race, he simply bet Judge Carr to place to add another $3.40 to his $270,448 score.

    Despite the big score and zest for chasing other carryovers, The Jazzman doesn’t plan to change his approach.

    “I learned to handicap using the Brisnet PPs,” he said. “There’s so much information there I remember the first time I opened it up and said, ‘My God.’

    “But I stuck with it and stuck with my approach of always making a concerted effort to bet a small amount of money. I don’t like to overwhelm myself with a bunch of horses in every leg. These guys sit around at the track and they have ten horses in a leg and still lose.

    “You can do a lot with $200, but you can do a lot with $10 too. The most important thing is you have to study."



  • Chasing the Rainbow

    POSTED By Derek Simon
    For those playing today's big carryover in the Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park, click HERE for a FREE Win Factor Report (my computerized fair odds line).

    And good luck!

  • Players' Pool post mortem: A consolation never is

    POSTED Nov 15, 2012 By Unknown
    Tough sequence on Wednesday, as only two of the ~143,500 combinations bet into the $89,489 Pick 6 carryover successfully navigated the sequence that ended with $111.50 winner Noosh's Tale.

     Difficulty is not an excuse for the Players' Pool, however, because as someone said to me after the races, "This is the type of result the Players' Pool should hit."

     I don't disagree. Between the three handicappers on the Players' Pool at least one of us mentioned every winner, and we all had Sportswriter as the most likely winner of leg 2 (race 5). Still, we only had one consolation payout to show for it.

     We considered using Sportswriter on every ticket, but each of us felt that he was vulnerable enough that we wanted an out if he lost. Sportswriter ended up on 71.2% of our tickets, which is equivalent to assigning him a fair value of 2-to-5.

     Noosh's Tale was on one of our tickets, but we needed Natalie Victoria to win the fourth leg (race 7) to connect with her, and she just wasn't good enough. Bad single.

     The other race we "missed" in the sense that the winner clearly wasn't one of our stronger picks was the third leg (race 6) when Star Black gave jockey Abel Castellano and trainer Randi Persaud their first winners of the meeting while paying $22.80. The horse fit, and I mention the jockey and trainer getting their first wins because one of the reasons I ultimately made this horse a "B" rather than an "A" is because she was co third choice on the morning line and with those connections I preferred the first-time starters at bigger prices.

    It's one thing to have all the dots on the page, but connecting them is obviously the key. What was the path yesterday? A 6x1x9x5x5x8 ticket would have cost $21,600 and hit for $84,000 (we'd have been the third winning ticket, so the payout would have been less) plus 28 consos for about a 2-to-1 ROI on our $25,000 investment. That's 86.4% of our money on Sportswriter, though, so instead of betting him like a 2-to-5 shot he's now 3-to-20. But, that's how we could have gotten it done.

    So lesson learned: Always single the big favorite. Just kidding! Just because the above would have worked this time doesn't mean that's the right play. Poker players understand this well. Just because you hit your inside straight on the river doesn't mean the call you made on the turn was necessarily correct or will be next time you're in a similar situation.

    But learning from the experience is always the right move. As Ernie Munick said on Facebook so poetically: "If I don't learn something when I handicap – a trip, a pedigree, a stat, an eccentricity of running or training or riding style, any pattern – then it feels like wasting time, with zero chance of the special."

  • Double carryover Pick 6 mania Wednesday at Aqueduct

    POSTED Nov 14, 2012 By Unknown
    As captain of the TwinSpires Players' Pool, I'm responsible for wagering $25,000 on the Pick 6 Wednesday at Aqueduct.

     $25,000 is a significant amount and will represent 5%-10% of the new money bet into the pool that already features a $89,489 carryover.

     The significance of the amount is not only in its volume but also in its effect on strategy. At this level of wagering, simply hitting the Pick 6 is not enough. Considering automatic withholding on any score greater than $5,000, the Pick 6 would need to pay at least $30,000 for the pool to break even, and that assumes that our consolations would total another $2,500 (it would also assume we hit the thing--no small task considering we're talking about only 8-12 winners based on pool estimates).

     The biggest question for today's sequence is what to do with Sportswriter, who won at this level three back, but that is his only win in his last seven tries, and he's giving weight to his competitors in this race (including some elders).


    Sportswriter certainly is the most likely winner, but is he a universal single? Put another way, is there more value in trying to hit it multiple times with Sportswriter or go against him? With 12,500 combinations at my disposal, the Players' Pool can do both, but balancing that ratio is essential. I'd hate to beat Sportswriter then miss elsewhere, but I'd hate for Sportswriter and a few other horses I really like to win and not have it multiple times.

    Post time for the first leg of the Pick 6 (race 4) is 1:47 EST, and Brisnet.com has lots of great handicapping information including a FREE Win Factor Report from fellow blog contributor Derek Simon.

    Good luck to everyone playing today.

  • TwinSpires.com bettor plays name game to scoop Pick 6 at Del Mar

    POSTED Aug 27, 2012 By Unknown
    A name he liked coupled with a jockey he recognized led Mr. Hariri to scoop Thursday’s Pick 6 at Del Mar for gross winnings of $495,060.80 on a $146 play.

    Playing through TwinSpires.com, the West Coast resident took a stab at Thursday’s $89,785 Pick 6 carryover by crafting nine separate tickets, including a main $96 play that hit six of six plus six consolation (5/6) payouts. A separate $4 play in which he singled the seventh race (fifth leg) winner but missed the third race (first leg) also cashed a consolation payoff of $1,790.60.

    The seventh race (fifth leg) single in question was Zimmer, who shipped to Del Mar from Churchill Downs for trainer Pat Byrne and was dismissed at 14.9-to-1, the longest shot in the seven-horse field of optional claimers. Hariri was initially attracted to the horse because of his name and decided to gamble on the Empire Maker colt when he saw Racing Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith listed to ride.

    “The way I play horses is by name,” Hariri said the morning after his big score. “I don’t care about odds; I play names I like. The longshot who led to me getting the whole pot was Zimmer. When I saw his name I said, ‘That’s a pretty cool name.’ Normally I’ll just go with names, and if I like it I’ll play it, but when I saw Mike Smith was riding I knew I had to include this horse.”

    The only single on Hariri’s winning ticket was Orientatious in the fourth race (second leg). The Orientate filly paid $20.20 to win and helped key separate wins for Hariri in the double, Pick 3, and Pick 5 that brought the day’s gross winnings to more than $500,000.

    “This is what it’s like to be hit by lightning,” Hariri said. “I didn’t believe it until I saw the money in my account. I couldn’t sleep last night.”

    Despite being live through two races with $12 and $20.20 horses (first-time starter Carving in the third race [first leg] and Orientatious, respectively), Hariri also played the late Pick 4. However, by the time the final race rolled around, he was too nervous to watch following Zimmer’s upset score.

    “I couldn’t watch it live, and I didn’t look at the will pays,” Hariri said. “I watched it on replay and even when I knew I won I thought since it was the favorite in the last leg [even money Bev N Bud] I thought it might pay $40,000 or $50,000.”

    In addition to his Pick 6 riches, Hariri also hit the Pick 5 on a $63 play that returned $4,020.85 and the Pick 4 three times on a $49 play that returned $1,618.05.

    “You never know what will happen,” Hariri said. “Sometimes horses just have their day, and yesterday was my day. I’m sharing my strategy so others can use it and win too.”

    Hariri said he opened a TwinSpires.com account shortly after his initial trip to the racetrack, and although he loves the convenience and excitement of playing online he said that his favorite part of racing is when the horses turn for home.

    “The stretch run is very exhilarating,” Hariri said. “I love horses, and I love watching them run.”

    Hariri is planning a trip to Chicago with some of his winnings, but the big windfall did not keep him away from this past weekend’s action featuring the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

    “It’s a big weekend with Saratoga and Del Mar,” Hariri said. “I’m not greedy, though. I’ll still play, but I won’t go crazy just because I won.”

  • opening day! (Santa Anita retrospective & picks)

    POSTED Dec 26, 2011 By Unknown
    Thoroughbred horse racing in North America can at times feel as if it's just one long season (or grind!), but marquee events (e.g. Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands) and race meetings (e.g. Saratoga) help create a seasonal vibe not otherwise found when considering there is live Thoroughbred racing 364 days a year.

    Opening day at Santa Anita Park creates such a vibe. Known as "Boxing Day", "December 26", or "The Day After Christmas" outside the horse racing world, opening day at The Great Race Place is as much about renewal as the New Year that dawns several days later.

    Huge live crowds are typical, but the simulcast world pays attention as well. It's only been eight days since Hollywood Park went into hibernation, but Santa Anita opening means looking forward, not back. There is the promise that comes with emerging three-year-old stars on the Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks trails as well as the establishing of a pecking order among the top regional horses in such glamor divisions as handicap male, older female, and turf milers. Plus plenty of good, old-fashioned West Coast speed on display in everything from maiden races to Grade 1 sprints.

    One of the things I like most about Southern California racing is the premium placed on quality handicapping information. Since joining Brisnet.com in July, I've become far more interested in West Coast racing because of the information available on a daily basis. Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report, Bob Selvin's Fair Odds & Analysis, and Today's Racing Digest premium edition are three of the specialty products Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com have available for this circuit, and the information is a valuable complement to our Ultimate Past Performances, Daily Selections full-card analysis, and other products.

    I love handicapping races because it's a challenge. I very rarely have bet someone else's pick blindly without doing at least a little research on whether "this horse is right for me", but I routinely read other people's analysis. Speaking of which, another great asset for betting Southern California is Tom Quigley's Twitter feed, which provides real-time information on the impressions entrants make in the paddock before each race.

    Whether you're chasing a six-figure score in the Pick 6, looking for a few winners here and there, or anything in between, there are lots of opportunities at Santa Anita Park--both wagering and in receiving information.

    As for the nine-race opening day card, my best bet is Mr. Bossy Pants in race six. Here is a look at my selections for all nine races.

  • Breeders' Cup bonanza

    POSTED Nov 4, 2011 By Unknown
    All you need to know about why the Breeders' Cup is a great event not only for the horses and their connections but also the bettors can be found in the results of the first five races on Championship Friday when horses paid $5, $7, $7.80, $13.20, and $2.80 to produce a $3,258.40 pick five, which is more than five times the parlay!

    On these big days I think too many people over think how to string together their projected winners. The payoff on the pick five was such an overlay that clearly other payouts were underlays. That means people who were trying to take a shot against Secret Circle (or any of the other horses) most likely did not receive value for that opinion (in this case they obviously didn't because they lost, but it's important not to be results orientated when talking general handicapping topics).

    It can be unfashionable to pick favorites, but it's on big race days that the most logical horses offer value, so don't be afraid to take a stand, but the key there is to take a stand. Either you think a horse like Secret Circle is going to win or you don't. After him, the rest of the field was evenly matched. Adding horses doubles, triples, etc. the cost of the ticket and takes value away from your core opinion.

    For views on the Breeders' Cup races from top Brisnet.com handicappers (including me!), visit the Breeders' Cup Special Reports page on the handicapping tab of TwinSpires.com!
    note: Not all products are a part of the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package. Standard retail charges apply to products that are not a part of the package.

  • Players' Pool excitement

    POSTED Oct 25, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the items on my job description I was most excited about when I signed on as director of marketing at Bloodstock Research Information Services was the role of captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool.

    I'm a big believer in syndicate betting for two reasons: A) I think it gives all involved a better chance at hitting a big number that still includes logical horses, and B) it's a great way to introduce bettors to the super exotic wagers that produce some of racing's biggest payoffs.

    Both points speak to the original mission of the bet when brisnet.com launched account wagering's first-ever Player's Pool for the 2004 Breeders Cup. The splash was immediate when the syndicate returned better than 9-to-2 to its investors by scoring five consolation pick six tickets worth $56,149 each for a total return of $280,748 on a $44,280 investment (it missed Wilko).

    My predecessor at BRIS, Rich Nilsen, was an inaugural panelist and went on to captain several successful pools for TwinSpires. Although I have no experience betting $100,000 in a single weekend, I have pushed through my share of big wagers on behalf of other people through the years as captain of my own Big Event Syndicate that showed a 6.12% profit across12 events dating back to the 2007 Kentucky Derby.


    The goal is not to grind a profit year to year, but to have the big score.

    Obviously I'm proud of a long-term profit in this game, but year to year being close to a big score but zeroing out always seemed more fun than breaking even. I get that something is better than nothing, but I don't think anyone puts $10 into a wagering syndicate really hoping for $12 back. Being alive for a chance at a 4-to-1 score versus being alive to break even is worth the $10 to go for gusto even if you roll craps now and again.

    And so it will go with this year's Player's Pool. Or put another way, if Breeders' Cup day chalks out, then we're going to lose. We definitely want to leverage our capital to catch the logical contenders who pay $20 to win and even some of the fringe contenders who pay much more than that (Midday was Players' Pool handicapper Jude Feld's best bet last year).

    Those interested for my thought process behind how we structured $100,000 worth of tickets can check out the multiple race wagering analysis available via brisnet beginning Thursday, November 3. That file itself is $5 but is included for those who subscribed to the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package.

  • CARRYOVER! Why racing leads the way in jackpot wagering

    POSTED Aug 10, 2011 By Unknown
    Unless you're alive in the last leg of the wager, there is no sweeter word at the conclusion of a sequence than "carryover."

    Depending on whether you played the bet, a carryover means either a chance to win your money back (and then some!) or a chance to win other people's money at a reduced takeout.

    I say "reduced takeout" because carryovers often attract so much action that the takeout exceeds the carryover, but still, a 5% takeout is a tremendous bargain to chase a potentially life-changing score.

    In this way, racing actually has an edge on casino gambling because at the casino, the games offering the biggest payouts typically have takeouts to match. Roulette, for instance, at 35-to-1 for selecting a single number has a house edge of 5.26% while even money bets in craps have a house edge below 1%. In racing, the "easier" bets such as win, place, and show have the lowest take outs while the takeout on super exotic wagers top 30% in some jurisdictions.

    But no matter what anyone tells you about his or her system for roulette or the mechanics of dice rolling, winning those games relies on luck.

    The beauty of horse racing is that its biggest scores come at a reduced price while still involving skill. If you picked one horse each race that you thought had a 25% chance of winning, it would be about 4,000-to-1 that all six of those 3-to-1 shots won. At a $2 wager, the parlay would return $8,192, and it's safe to assume that the pick six on a double carryover day would return at least 25% more.

    With $232,356 already in the today's pick six pool at Saratoga and a 26% takeout on new money, the break even point in terms of effective takeout with 25% of new money (after takeout) going to consolations and the remaining 75% going to the jackpot is $893,675. If the wager today handles any less, then winning players paid no takeout. If the wager handles more, then there was some takeout. The meeting's only double carryover to date occurred on Saturday, August 6 (Whitney day), and the $215,399 double carryover generated $1,017,811 in new money for an effective takeout of 4.84%--still better than roulette, and nine winners received $86,700 each plus $318 for each consolation.

    Some might mention Powerball as a positive expectation game when it's jackpot carries over, and yeah, with the current jackpot at $220-million, you're coming out ahead since the chances of winning are 195,249,054-to-1, but to put that in horse racing perspective, it is 2.1% more likely that six consecutive 23-to-1 shots will win than for each of your Powerball numbers to be drawn.

    Racing is fertile ground for people who enjoy marauding the establishment, but carryovers on jackpot wagers do provide one of the absolute best bets in all of gambling.