• Weekend Preview: Eblouissante Returns & the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Dec 15, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Although this weekend’s races may not raise the pulse in the same way that the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup races do, there are some interesting events on tap.

    To begin with, Saturday marks the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge. Participants simply need to select one horse in each of the 10 contest races to earn the mythical proceeds of a $2 win and place bet (payoffs capped at $50 on win wagers, $20 on place bets). The player with the highest accumulated bankroll secures a spot in the 2013 Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas as well as $1,000 in cash and a $300 Brisnet.com credit. There are additional prizes for the top 15 finishers as well.

    Saturday also features the return of Zenyatta’s half-sister, Eblouissante, in an allowance race at Hollywood Park and BC Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough in the CashCall Futurity.

    Here’s a sneak peek at some of the more interesting weekend races:

    SATURDAY (12/15)

    RACE 4 – HOLLYWOOD PARK
    There is no question that 3-Eblouissante’s debut effort was impressive. Not only did the three-year-old filly win by 4 ¼ lengths in that Nov. 16 maiden affair, she recorded a 92 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 91) and -5 late speed ration (LSR) in the process. Hence, I think she’s worth considering at even odds or better today and I would definitely play her at anything over her morning line price (6/5).

    However, there’s a rub: Simply put, this race has no pace — and at least one trainer seems to be aware of this fact. Julio Canani just claimed 4-Include the Cat and is putting blinkers on the five-year-old daughter of Include after a three-furlong drill timed in 36-4/5 seconds. Include the Cat recorded a -6 early speed ration (ESR) last time and only Glowing Spirit, who is dropping off a 10-furlong try on the grass, has ever gone faster early. If any horse beats the big favorite, I suspect Canani’s mare will be the one; I make her fair odds 7-2.

    RACE 9 – HOLLYWOOD PARK 
    The ninth race  at Hollywood Park, the CashCall Futurity, is just the opposite of the fourth event in that there is an abundance of early speed. 4-Carving, 5-Fury Kapcori, 8-Really Mr Greely, 9-Title Contender and 11-Oxbow have all shown the desire to leave the gate running. Thus, I think there might be value on 2-Den’s Legacy (9-2 fair odds), who has recorded some solid LSRs while coming from off the pace in both AWS and turf races.

    I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss the frontrunners either. Title Contender (8-1 fair odds) may be the quickest of the quick and Fury Kapcori (6-1 fair odds) is improving and doesn’t need the lead to win.

    RACE 2 – HAWTHORNE
    This is one of the Brisnet contest races and I think there are four horses with a decent shot of winning:

     4-Shelbys Star (7-2 fair odds) has got the lowest (fastest) overall ESRs, is improving, and could get brave on the lead.

    If she runs back to her debut, 5-Brick House Road (3-1 fair odds) will be long gone against the likes of these. Not only was the competition she faced arguably tougher, but the daughter of Road Ruler showed both early (-10 ESR) and late (-14 LSR) speed that day. The problem is “that day” was more than four months ago.

    9-Jewelia Anne (4-1 fair odds) has been facing considerably tougher but comes off a 53-length butt-kicking as the 9-5 favorite in her local bow.

    Although he showed nothing in his first — and only — lifetime start, I suspect 10-Doggone Wild (8-1 fair odds) is properly placed today and will give a good account of himself.

    RACE 4 – HAWTHORNE
    At 5-2 or greater, 1-Denham is my play. He likes to win (17-of-44 lifetime), is in good form and has a versatile running style.

    VULNERABLE FAVORITES
    DED1: 12-In Step Dancer (5/2 morning line)
    FG11: 12-Palmer Tour (7/2)
    HAW8: 2-Most Distinct (3/1)
    PEN9: 3-Juicy Lucy (7/2)
    TP8: 12-Yesterday (3/1)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • Watching For Winners

    POSTED Dec 12, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    There will not be any more stakes in harness racing this year. Take this season out of the oven; it’s toast. We are down to weekends where our chances to profit are down to the nitty-gritty overnight races and we continue to emphasize specific horses at specific tracks with our horses-to-watch list (H2W). 

    Winning Lines


    Our H2W list is exclusive to TwinSpires players and blog readers. It is our third week and these remaining weeks of 2012 are our most intense, offering The H2W list potent contenders based on our experienced spotters’ evaluations of recent trips.  

    Again, here is the legend concerning how to interpret the H2W list. Before the horses’ names is the track, followed on the next paragraph by a date it (or they) will be racing, with the race in which they are entered (R and race number). If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second and last time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” means the horse is on the also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race. 

    It is up to you to deal with more than one horse on the list that is entered in the same race. As well, some horses appear on the list this week while having a + in front of their names even though they are racing at a different track this week.  

    Please remember that the horses listed can be played in any payable form, win, place or show, or in any exotic, based on your assessment of the horse’s odds at post time. The H2W list displays “live” horses that have shown strict potential of late and need to be considered contenders in the races noted. If you have any questions about the H2W list, send them to us through the TwinSpires blog channel. 

    From last week’s list we have lost two tracks, Batavia Downs (see notes below) and Lebanon Raceway, because their meets have ended.  

    Cal Expo
    12/14, +Giles LS Hanover R1; Terror Time R11; Coal Younger R11; Komoda’s Fantasy R12; Precious Few R13 +Cinnamon R14; Paul The Powerful R14
    12/15, WH Scooter R7; Cheswick R8; Jessalilpiece ae R 8; +Tangram R11; Im The Money R15 

    Fraser
    12/14, IM The CEO R1; Quite A Lady R1; +Country Hideaway R2; Exotic Sparkle R3; Red Star Betsy R3; +Succulent R6; Sweet Reunion R6; +Imherefortheparty R10; Cheyenne J R10; +Alotta Crackers R11; Princesse Dorleans R11; Fighter Bliss R12; Outlawmischievious R12 

    Freehold
    12/14, Allthatnthensome R2; Country Fresh R4; Call Me Madam R5
    12/15, J’omama R3; Fandango Dancer R3; Milliondollar Art R4; Rocknroll Jewel R4; Stormin Rustler R8 

    Northfield
    12/14, +Kilowatts Fantasy R4; Sand Latte R6; Arion R8; Power And Purpose R11; Liveandinconcert R12; Cinderella Story R14
    12/15, Straight Dancer R9; Our Mclovin R8; Richie The Clown R9; Jenna’s Dream R11 

    Pompano
    12/15, Max Q R4; Mcgreat R4; Dots Bigboy R5; Desert Hanover R5; Grin Big R5; Major Najor R8; Super Railee R 9; Cascata R10 

    Saratoga
    12/14, Rock This World R8; Grand Victory R11; Bruise Cruise R11; Doully R12 
     
    Notes

    Batavia Downs, America’s oldest lighted harness racetrack, concluded its 66th season on Dec. 8 with significant increases in wagering handle over 2011. Export handle rose a staggering 53 percent, while all-sources handle increased by 14 percent. On track, attendance was up .5 percent while on-track handle decreased by 5 percent. 

    “We had more outlets taking our signal this year but to be up over 50 percent says [we sent a] well-received product,” Batavia General Manager, Todd Haight said. “There’s no doubt our earlier post time was also a factor as well.”  

    The prolific Ron Burke stable has three weeks left in 2012 but it has already been a record year. The team sits with purse winnings of $19.1 million, which is a record for them after last year’s earnings of $18.5 million. In 2010 the stable won $18.1 million. In total the stable numbers 200 head with approximately 80 in New Jersey and 30 yearlings in Florida with Ron’s father Mickey at the New Winter Miles Training Center. The $19.1 million has been achieved from 4006 starters that won 863 races. Just over $2 million of the total came from racing in Canada.  

    Western Fair Raceway will have a special New Year’s Eve program starting at 8 p.m. EST. There are two special races being developed: the Old Lang Syne Trot and Old Lang Syne Pace featuring the oldest eight horses in each.  In addition to the New Year’s program, Western Fair will also host live racing on Boxing Day (Dec. 26) at a special afternoon start time of 1:15 p.m.
     
     
     

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition. Cartoon by Thom Pye.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Dec 9, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The Friday and Saturday features were close but not moneymakers.  

    At Northlands we couldn’t defeat the Filly Pace favorite, a 25-cent-on-the-dollar favorite. Our 9-1 choice, Prairie Illusion, was second, igniting a paltry $8.50 exacta. The next day, the Western Pacing Derby delivered a longshot, as we thought it could, but it was not our 19-1 shot, it was an 18-1 shot we never mentioned. Our choice finished eighth.  

    In Northfield’s Cleveland Classic, we were once again thwarted by our wagering nemesis, Bolt The Duer. The soph colt won the Adios Pace over the summer and the public began to wager him down to unfair odds—in our humble opinion. Since winning the Adios, which was a gift from A Rocknroll Dance’s record-breaking three-quarters, “Bolt” has never been an overlay. He won this event at 4-1.  

    The most notable element of the race was the pitiful performance of the aforementioned A Rocknroll Dance. He finished sixth, never making a move to be in better position, proving that he has never recovered from the throat surgery that ruined what could’ve been an historic season to equal his bloodline.  

    Our hits, again this weekend, came from the lower ranks, those delicious overnight overlays from various North American tracks.  

    H2W

     
    In our official second week of H2W action, we scored with more winners from high to low prices. Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying winners (note that some are horses that were listed for the second time, having lost the first time on the list, further supporting our process of giving each H2W horse a second chance to score): 

    $19.20, Dangerismybusiness, Saratoga
    $11.80, Vantage, Cal Expo
    $7.90, Mach Maiden Heaven, Fraser
    $4.90, Warrawee Nimby, Batavia
    $3.20, Dreaming Of Amy, Cal Expo
    Here are the horses that finished second and third that will return to the H2W list next week and how they finished, along with their post-time odds. Special notes on their affects in those positions follow.  

    Seconds:
    JJ Regard (5-1), Saratoga; Virtual Escape (6-1), Lebanon; Lil Kent (3-1), Nola (Fraser; Alotta Crackers (4-1), Fraser; Nola B (4-5), Lebanon; I’m The Reason (47-1), Cal Expo. 

    I’m The Reason was beaten by the race favorite, igniting a $53.40 exacta. I’m The Reason paid $27.20 to place and more than $9 to show.  

    Thirds:
    Succulent (18-1), Northlands; Flak Jacket (3-1), Northlands; Giles LS Hanover (7-1), Cal Expo; Cinnamon (4-1), Cal Expo; Tangram (6-1), Cal Expo.

    All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog. 

    News And Notes

    The Illinois Harness Horseman’s Association (OHHA) began to broadcast between-race interviews, which they hope will “revolutionize the way fans handicap and understand harness racing in Chicago.” It started at Maywood Park recently with post-race interviewing of drivers and trainers.

    The IHHA board decided the feature could help fans understand why drivers make certain decisions in races and to explain extraordinary circumstances.

    “If a horse is the favorite to win a race and he races terribly and finishes last, I think fans want to know what’s going on,” said David McCaffrey, IHHA president. “It could be something as simple as a piece of paper on the track that spooks a horse and causes him to break stride or a knee boot that comes loose and impedes the horse’s gait. Either way, the fans deserve an explanation.”

    By giving a podium to horsemen, the IHHA hopes the public will become more engaged and use interviews’ information when they handicap. The board also hopes that the interviews will bring more transparency to the sport. To that end, fans will eventually be able to submit questions via Facebook and Twitter.

    “There are a lot of factors on the track,” said IHHA board member and driver Marcus Miller. “A driver might get boxed in or there could be an equipment malfunction. Drivers make mistakes sometimes too. But the public needs an explanation. We need them to know that we’re honest out there.”

    For the past month, the IHHA has been conducting generic interviews. A collection of these interviews can be found on YouTube.

    The stakes calendar at The New Meadowlands will have a different look in 2013. The focus shifts from two-year-olds stakes to events geared for older horses.   

    Gone are the Woodrow Wilson and Sweetheart stakes. The Reynolds and Simpson freshman stakes have been relocated to sister tracks Tioga and Vernon and scheduled later than usual in the season. The Final Four (Governor’s Cup, Three Diamonds, Valley Victory and Goldsmith Maid) will be resurrected and added in the Fall meet, placing the emphasis on high-pursed races for freshmen from late August through November.  

    The big news, however, is the creation of a new Free For All series, conceived by Jeff Gural. The series will include the top older events at The Meadowlands—Breeders Crown and Allerage Farm finals, along with several $50,000 Opens at The Meadowlands as legs from which points will be accumulated leading into $500,000 guaranteed finals for trotters and pacers on Nov. 30.  

    A provision in the conditions to invite the winner of the sophomore Breeders Crown or Hambletonian/Meadowlands Pace offers the hope that this year-end event may pit the top three-year-old against the best older horses.  

    The Meadowlands Maturity for four-year-old pacers and trotters will debut in May with an estimated $100,000 purse ($75,000 added.

    Another new series for 2013 is the Hudson River for four- and five-year-old New Jersey, New York or Pennsylvania sires stakes participants that have not won 4 races or $150,000 outside of state-bred events. This one will travel, with $18,000 legs planned for Pa. and N.Y. as well as at the Meadowlands before the $75,000 final at The New Meadowlands.  

    New Meadowlands President, Jeff Gural dsof. “I believe that unlike in the past, our best theree-year-olds are likely to race at four and as a result the races for older horses will once again have the kind of excitement that I grew up [experiencing] when I started going to Yonkers and Roosevelt.”  

    Also returning to the Meadowlands in 2013 are the Moni Maker and Nadia Lobell, which are scheduled for late November.  

    Live racing returns to The Meadowlands on Dec. 28 with a post time of 7:15p.m. The schedule calls for racing Thursday, Friday and Saturday through March 16, then Friday and Saturday for the balance of the year. The 2013 Championship Meet begins on Friday, May 3 and will end with the Hambletonian day card.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Get onto our mailing list and receive a free copy of a classic horseracing fiction book by clicking here.

    Check out special podcasts available for beginners and veterans of harness betting, a new series available free so you can learn more to bet more and win more at TwinSpires.  

    Podcast download link: http://tinyurl.com/bsgrx5m 

    And there are mini-essays on playing. Click here for the latest.  

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.
     
    Winners contributing to Balmoral Pick 4 tickets in the past few weeks include Fox Valley Yukon ($16.20), So Ideal ($15.60), Incrediblefilly ($10), Quality Sport ($8.40), Ice Scraper ($7.60) and Holdingallcards ($3).   

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.  

     

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • Conditional Wagering: A New Approach to Value Betting

    POSTED Dec 8, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Since I talk a lot about fair odds and value wagering, I thought I would spend some time this week explaining how to bet in a value-conscious manner.

    Now, there are two ways to approach value betting. The first is to establish a fair odds line that is reasonably reliable. Remember, if your fair odds do not adequately reflect reality they are pointless. In other words, if a horse that you make 3-1 doesn’t win approximately one out of every four times it runs, 3-1 is not its fair price.

    Consequently, producing a fair odds line is not easy. In fact, it is my contention that the vast majority of horseplayers will only be able to do so in very specific situations.

    But that’s OK. After all, one shouldn’t be betting every race anyway.

    Once the fair odds are established, the next step is simple: Just bet on the horse or horses going to post at odds equal to or greater than their fair odds. Obviously, on-track patrons should try to wait until the last possible instant to bet in order to ensure that the fair price is met or exceeded; those betting through TwinSpires or other such outlets, however, can place what’s known as a conditional wager and avoid the stress of last-minute number-punching.

    A conditional wager allows bettors to set a minimum price that must be met at a designated time prior to post. For example, the graphic below shows a $20 conditional win bet on 3-Luce Mia in the first race at Turfway Park on Dec. 7. The bet was placed using the TwinSpires “Classic” betting interface and requires that Luce Mia be 6-5 or greater at zero minutes to post (see the “Min Odds” and “MTP” boxes below).

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Although this was a mythical bet, I picked this race on purpose to demonstrate both the advantages and the disadvantages of conditional wagering.

    Had this bet been placed, it would have filled… yet Luce Mia went off at 4-5. How can this be?

    Well, it’s because with zero minutes to post, Luce Mia’s odds were hovering in the 7-5 to 8-5 range and that is when the decision was made to bet or not to bet.

    This type of situation is not unusual. It’s been estimated that over half the wagering dollars hit the pools with a minute or less to post. Hence, I suggest that players alter their fair odds to account for this in the following manner:

     1) If the horse one prefers is the morning-line favorite, double the fair odds at small tracks; add 50 percent to the fair odds at larger tracks.

    2) If the horse one prefers is not the morning-line favorite, but is 3-1 or less on the morning line, add 25 percent to the fair odds.

    NOTE: The reason for these adjustments is that, for the most part, late money comes in on favorites and near-favorites. This boosting of the fair odds is an attempt to counter that.

    Thus, in the example above, the 6-5 fair odds on Luce Mia would have been changed to 9-5, as she was the 2-1 morning line favorite (1.2 + 50 percent = 1.8 or 9/5).

    The second way to get bang for one’s buck is to look for value in the exacta. This can be done in two ways: 1) By using fair odds to determine what the expected payoffs should be and wagering on combinations offering a premium; or 2) By using the actual tote odds and doing exactly the same thing.

    Below is a chart that gives the fair $2 payoff for various odds combinations (based on a 120 percent win pool). The predicted winner’s odds are in the far left column, while the odds on the predicted place horse are listed in the second row. To obtain the fair payoff for a particular combo, simply find where the winner’s odds and the second-place finisher’s odds intersect.
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    To demonstrate how this process works, let’s take a look at Friday’s 11th race at Scarborough Downs:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Assuming you liked the eventual winner, 2-Smoknintheboyzroom, there were three exacta combinations that were offering value based on the post-time odds.

    The 2-1 combo was paying $37, yet the fair price was $23; the 2-4 coupling was worth $58 ($46 was fair); and the 2-7 was offering $75 ($20 was fair).

    The race finished 2-4, with the exacta returning an even $58.

    Of course, this method for finding value in exactas is not foolproof — clearly some horses have a better chance of finishing second than they do of winning and vice versa — but it’s a good starting point. And it’s especially effective at smaller tracks like Scarborough where the exotics pools are not always efficient.

    Now, just for the fun of it, let’s take a look at an upcoming race to see the entire process at work. The eighth event at Aqueduct has a 90 percent Race Rating according to my Win Factor Report and, thus, the computerized fair odds listed therein are deemed to be reliable.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    So, our conditional wagers are pretty straightforward. With San Pablo the morning line favorite, we set our fair win odds at 4-5 (0.6 + 50 percent = 0.9 or 4/5). Then, when the tote odds are available, we’ll set our fair exacta odds (or we can use the $1 prices listed in my Win Factor Report). 

    The conditional wagering ticket looks like this:

    WIN on 5
    Min. Odds: 4-5 @ 0 MTP

    Exacta 5-6
    Min. Probable $1 Payoff: $6 or TBD

    Exacta 5-4
    Min. Probable $1 Payoff: $7 or TBD

    Exacta 5-2
    Min. Probable $1 Payoff: $8 or TBD

    Try using the value betting approach on other races this weekend. I think you’ll find it to be a powerful money management technique.

  • Another Watch, Wager And Win Weekend

    POSTED Dec 5, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    A few straggling stakes, only one national, are featured this upcoming weekend, though mostly we are focusing on our horses-to-watch list (H2W), including some this week from Dec. 7 and Dec. 8 at Northlands Park. The Alberta track hosts some of its local, annual features those days so we have been preparing for a chance to profit from the entire programs with our H2W list. 

    Look Out Cleveland


    The “flying turns” of Northfield Park host a few of the glamour-boy pacers in a strong race that always appears as an afterthought considering its date. This Dec. 8 is the date for the $130,000 Cleveland Classic, a race that makes little difference in the division’s champs but can be a good place to nail a longshot. 

    There were 38 horses eligible long before the draw and only six dropped into the box. The small, compact field brings together four of the season’s headliners. Anyone following the stakes season knows Thinking Out Loud, Pet Rock, Bolt The Duer and A Rocknroll Dance are the featured quartet. But the other two deserve attention, since either could provide upsets. 

    Rockin Finish is 12-1 on the morning line in the sextet and the only horse in thye field to have a race over the Ohio track. It was a race he won in October. Like “Dance,” he is a son of Rocknroll Hanover. The Virgil Morgan-trained colt raced his fastest at Woodbine. 

    Ron Burke’s Mortal Zin is another son of “Rocknroll.” The colt has eight victories under his belt and comes with a lifetime mark of 1:51.1 taken at Harrah’s Philadelphia. Mortal Zin’s morning line is 15-1. 

    There will be little value outside of the longshots unless Thinking Out Loud takes an abundance of win money. Then Pet Rock could be worth a shot and A Rocknroll Dance could win at the longest odds he has carried since before his throat surgery. 

    Deep Freeze Pacing


    On any given day in December in Alberta, it is usually sub-zero weather, at least before and after the Chinook winds take down the temperature. At Northlands Park in the province’s capital of Edmonton, filly and colt pacers withstand the disparity in degrees as they contest the track’s biggest purse events. 

    Friday, Dec. 7 the fillies are featured in the $75,000 Northlands Filly Pace Final after a pair of eliminations qualified the field. The outstanding favorite will be Phone Terror. Her elim win was straight forward, a wire-to-wire effort. In that race, third-choice Prairie Illusion, from Alberta’s prince of horsemen Keith Clark, was forced wide but made up 5 lengths on the outside.

    This week from post 2 “Illusion” poses a huge threat to “Terror,” while the other elim winner, Credit Card Junkie, has to deal with post 8 and a probable rotten trip. The other key contributor to the exotics should be Honor Roll, who also survived a tough journey in her elim.

    On Saturday, another $75Gs are offered to the soph-colt pacers in the Western Pacing Derby Final. In the elim won by this affair’s second morning-line choice, Cowboy Caper, that race’s 40-1 shot soared late to gain almost 8 lengths and finish third. Outlaw Highvoltage certainly has a shot to upset here, especially with top-choice Steve O and two-time winner Playbook on the outside. This is a classy little colt that has been productive in Alberta Sires Stakes and can use last week’s late-charging speed in other ways to win.

    Watching Horses


    Our H2W list has already provided TwinSpires players winners at decent prices. The H2W list continues to offer horses that are potent contenders, based on our experienced spotters’ evaluations of recent trips.  

    The legend is simple. We list the track atop the horse’s name, the date it (or they) will be racing and the race where it is (or they are) entered. If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means that horse is appearing on the list for the second or third time. An ae means the horse is on the also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race.

    Batavia
    12/7, Bun Jovie R1; +Keystone Bernard R7; Pebble Run R7; Warrawee Nimby R11;
    12/8, Virtual Escape R1; Brody Hanover R12

    Cal Expo
    12/7, Giles LS Hanover R3; +Vantage R5; Sleigh Bell R6; +Charmer R7; +JC’s Lucky Dreamer R9; Cinnamon R9; +Dreaming Of Amy ae R10
    12/8, +Franco Smoothie N; I’m The Reason R13; +La Cantera R16; Tangram R16

    Fraser
    12/7, +Kthanxbai R3; + Just Cruise On R4; Mach Maiden Heaven R6; Queens Heritaj R8; + Tahuya Rub A Dub R8; Country Hideaway R9; Lilkent R10; Aces Double Suited R10; Alotta Crackers R11

    Lebanon
    12/7, +Buckeye Beauty R6; Lady Alicia R7; Southwind Thistle R8; Kilowatts Fantasy R10; Nola B R12 

    Northlands
    12/7 Total Rhythm R3; Red Star Tiger R3
    12/8, Succulent R4; Im A Wildcat R6; Flak Jacket R10; Outlaw Beacon ae R11; The Panductor R12

    Pompano
    12/8, Angle Of Attack R6; +Fox Ridge Banker R9

    Saratoga
    12/7, JJ Regard R3+Southern Strength R6; Rock This World ae R8; +Cash Poor R12; Dangerismybusiness R12

     
    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • $260,003 winner forgot he was alive in Pick 6

    POSTED By Unknown
    Ron from Michigan was live to three horses in a $.50 Pick 4 that he didn’t expect to pay much since the first three winners were 3-to-1, 3-to-2, and 3-to-2.

    Still, he got excited when 17.1-to-1 English Puddin nosed even money favorite Bwanadada to win the night cap and complete $1,011.05 Pick 4 that would have paid considerably less had the favorite held on.

    The real excitement came when he checked his TwinSpires.com account balance and saw $199,153.05 in there instead of $1,171.05. Turns out English Puddin’s nose also landed Ron the Pick 6, a bet he thought he was out of after the second leg. Ron had forgotten that he had used 10.3-to-1 Cloudy Moon, who went gate to wire to win race 5, as part of a $144 Pick 6 play that returned $260,003 before taxes.

    “I was sitting in my office at home and didn’t realize I was live in the Pick 6,” Ron said. “I was excited when I won that photo to hit my best possible Pick 4, but when I checked my account balance I was like, ‘Hey! OK!’ Then I remembered.”

    Ron isn’t a big Pick 6 player—the veteran recreational horseplayer said he typically sticks to $.50 Pick 4s—but things came together on Sunday for him to take a stab at Hollywood’s one-day carryover.

    “The money was right to play,” Ron said. “I hit some other races earlier on the day and just spun that into the Hollywood card. I started out East and ended up out West. If I look at the Pick 6 and it’s going to take $500 or $1,000 to play it then I’ll pass. $144 is pretty much my max to play, so this fit.”

    Ron said he’s gotten more into betting Southern California racing the past few years because trainer patterns are easier to spot with most conditioners starting their horses on one circuit. Ron also uses Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances to handicap with special attention to top BRIS Speed Ratings from the past two or three races and trainer statistics.

    Ron’s entrée to Thoroughbred racing far predates the internet let alone Brisnet.com, but speed ratings have been a part of his arsenal since the beginning when trips to River Downs while attending the University of Cincinnati.

    “My first major score was buying some guy’s homemade figures for live racing at River,” Ron said. “There was a horse in the last race who was just a complete standout. The horse won and paid $40 or $50. It was a lot of money for me at the time, and that’s what kept me going back.”

    Ron not only kept going back to River Downs but also found a way to Keeneland in Lexington by hitchhiking.

    Ron served overseas in the Army but returned to racing immediately following his return to the States and retirement from the service. He’s currently involved in a Dogwood Stable partnership, and he has campaigned horses on his own that have won in Michigan and at Chicagoland tracks.

    He is not sure which animal(s) he will buy with his winnings.

    “My dog passed away a few months ago, so I might get a new one,” Ron said. “He passed of old age, and maybe the time is right now. Maybe I’ll buy another horse with Dogwood, too.”

    Whatever else he decides to do with the money, Ron is committed to keep playing the horses as well.

    “I’ve been playing horses all my life,” Ron said. “It’s a hobby, but it’s all about trying to make a profit.”

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Dec 2, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Enter December and the waning race days of Y2K plus 12. Before we review the weekend, here is a bit more about the horses-to-watch list (H2W).

    We list many horses from a host of tracks. We suspect that every one on the H2W list has shown potential for winning in their next two races. But that is where the directions for play end. We do not suggest any specific play, nor do we expect followers to play every horse each time it races. The H3W list is a powerful row of tips for horses you should heed. Then, how you play them is your call.  

    When we review the list we note winners because they will leave the list. We also note the odds on all horses and ask you to pay attention to H2W horses that assist in exotics. Because most of the horses we list are “alive,” you can judge how to play them. Followers have told us the H2W list has been helpful for hitting well-paying exactas and triples. You can see from some of the odds we post after horses’ race off the list that many are involved in exotics beyond being winners.
     

    Use them as you decide to use them but take them seriously because they are valuable, having been chosen by experienced race-watchers who are veteran bettors. And now, what happened this weekend: 

    H2W


    Right out of the box, the H2W produced some hearty winners on Friday, Nov. 30. Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying winners:
     

    $78.20, Kommander Hawk, Pompano
    $17.60, Cody Cobraski, Fraser
    $14.40, Cherry Tree Luke, Cal Expo
    $5.40, Upncoming Prospect, Cal Expo
    $4.80, Romeo Star, Batavia
    $3.40, Gold Device, Cal Expo

     
    Here are the horses that will return to the H2W list next week and how they finished, along with their post-time odds (check track results for the exotics involving them).

    Seconds:
    Just Frank (2-1), Batavia; Buckeye Beauty (7-1), Lebanon; Cash Poor (22-1), Pompano; Fighter Bliss (12-1), Fraser; Sweet Reunion (9-5), Fraser.

    Thirds
    Western Mandy (7-2), Lebanon; Machine (3-1), Lebanon; Major Najor (4-1), Pompano; Franco Smoothie N (6-1), Cal Expo; Cruisin Inmybeamer (30-1), Cal Expo; Princess Dorleans (26-1), Fraser.

    Scratches
    Goldstar Raider, Pompano; Fox Ridge Banker, Pompano; Delightful Shark, Cal Expo; Panic At The Disco, Fraser.
     
    All adjustments for returnees to the list and additions will be in the Thursday blog.

    Results


    Our two possible upsets in the soph-colt pacing Autumn Series final were beaten by another longshot at Woodbine, while we lost the final for filly pacers to the dead-on favorite. Heston Blue Chip, as expected, won the Matron Final for glamour-boy pacers at Dover on Sunday. That race completed the division’s stakes season. The late surge of “Heston” further clouds top honors for soph-colt pacers this season.

    There are a few stakes remaining in the waning days of the year, which we will cover in our Thursday blog. These include Northlands’ Filly Pace and its Western Pacing Derby. Also pending is the Cleveland Classic at Northfield.

    News And Notes

    Ray Cotolo, who works with us on all harness projects and has been the youngest reporter of Hambletonian and Breeders Crown races in the history of the sport, is one of six nominees of the Lew Barasch Breakthrough Award for 2012. He is being recognized for his highly visible contributions as a journalist in the industry while only 14-years-old.

    Opening night for the Meadowlands meet is Friday, Dec. 28. The track will race Thursday, Friday and Saturday through March 16. Racing will then change to a Friday-through-Saturday schedule for the duration of the winter meet and the championship meet, which concludes on Hambletonian day, Saturday, Aug. 3. In 2013, the Meadowlands will offer a fall meet that begins on Saturday, Nov. 23 and will race on Friday and Saturday through Saturday, Dec. 28.

    A significant pari-mutuel development at Pompano was the debut a 10-percent take-out on their Pick-4 wager—by far the lowest in the industry—beginning on Monday, Dec. 3. The only Florida harness track offers racing on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays with a 7:05 p.m. post time.

    After a 35-year career as a harness driver, John Gilmour has retired. The Ontario native, who spent the vast majority of his life racing in New York State, won his last race last week. It was his 4,492nd victory from 28,655 starts. He amassed just over $9.5 million in purses. Gilmour is one of four brothers who left Ontario for harness racing in the USA. His other brothers included George, the late Buddy, and Lloyd.

    Break The Bank K, a millionaire and winner of the 2010 Breeders Crown Three-Year-Old Colt Trot, is also retiring, though his work in the industry will continue; he will stand his first season at stud in 2013 at Midland Acres in Ohio. 

    Break The Bank K campaigned for trainer Trond Smedshammer as a three year old, when he was covered extensively on the TwinSpires-Hambletonian Society Hambletonian Trail/Breeders Crown Countdown blogs. Break The Bank K is a son of Revenue S, who also sired this year’s Hambletonian winner, Market Share.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Get onto our mailing list and receive a free copy of a classic horseracing fiction book by clicking here. Check out special podcasts available for beginners and veterans of harness betting, a new series available free so you can learn more to bet more and win more at TwinSpires. The latest is called “Three Things Every Harness Player Should Know” and you can watch it by clicking http://harnessbettorpodcast.libsyn.com/podcast-04-3-things-every-harness-player-should-know … 

    Podcast download link: http://tinyurl.com/bsgrx5m

    And there are mini-essays on playing. Click here for the latest.

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets.

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.

     


    Cartoon by Thom Pye