Will I’ll Have Another Win the Triple Crown?
I’ll
Have Another’s Triple Crown quest has become downright Shakespearean: it is to be
or not to be. Of course, the racing fan side of me — my left side as it turns
out — desperately wants to see history made in Elmont, NY on Saturday. Yet, the
value bettor side of me is screaming for an upset.
Let’s
be clear: I’ll Have Another will be an underlay this weekend. Given the inevitable
souvenir ticket purchases — you can even buy them online — he almost has to be. Plus, as we’ve seen in years
past, when a Triple Crown is on the line, rational betting often takes a leave
of absence.
There
have been 30 horses that came to the Big Apple in search of eternal glory — almost
all of them were bet like they’d already achieved it. The last winner of the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness not to be favored
in the Belmont Stakes was Assault in 1946… and he wound up winning the Triple
Crown. Still, as the chart below reflects, a $2 win bet on all of the Triple Crown hopefuls in the Belmont has produced an
ROI of -41.5 percent, including a -78.42 percent ROI over the past 50 years.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
For
a detailed analysis of the Test of Champions, including my suggested wagers,
check out the video below (and remember to get your Ultimate Belmont Stakes
Handicapping Package, which includes my special Belmont Betting Guide, at Brisnet.com):
Free Pace Profile Report
Click HERE for a free Pace Profile Report for races 6-11 from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 9, 2012.
52 comments:
FYI, the race is the BELMONT Stakes in Belmont, NY, you need to correct your copy here.
You would think so, wouldn't you? But, no, Belmont Park is located in Elmont, NY.
U look so much better on podcast Derek :) And yes, Belmont is in Elmont, correct nothing! SB
Ha, ha. You should see me in total darkness -- I look even better!
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Wow, what an exciting read! I had no idea that I'll Have Another had such an incredible journey to the Triple Crown. It makes me appreciate his achievements even more.
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