Showing posts with label NYRA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NYRA. Show all posts

  • Let the ‘Real’ Derby Preps Begin

    POSTED Apr 5, 2014 By Derek Simon
    According to KentuckyDerby.com, there have been 20 “prep” races for the Kentucky Derby so far this year. That’s 29 events in which points have been awarded to Kentucky Derby hopefuls — points that will ultimately determine who’s in and who’s out of America’s greatest horse race.

    I say nay.

    I say that, in truth, there has been but one Kentucky Derby prep (last weekend’s Florida Derby) run this year — with four more remaining (Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby) including two this weekend (the SA Derby and Wood).

    No offense to the majestic thoroughbreds that competed in this year’s Sham, LeComte, Smarty Jones or El Camino Real Derby, but those races have produced exactly three Kentucky Derby champions since the death of Andrew Johnson (he was the 17th president, kids) — and not one of them actually won the “prep” in question:

    Giacomo (3rd in 2005 Sham)
    War Emblem (5th in 2002 LeComte)
    Charismatic (2nd in 1999 El Camino Real Derby)

    Meanwhile, Saturday’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby have produced a total of 36 Kentucky Derby winners. So let’s take a look at this weekend’s prestigious preps, starting with the Wood Memorial:

    WOOD MEMORIAL
    10th Aqueduct (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-KID CRUZ
    Recent podcast guest Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation loves this horse and I can see why. The son of Lemon Drop Kid comes from the clouds and could get the perfect setup with the likes of Noble Moon, Kristo, Schivarelli, Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion in this field. What’s more, his speed and pace figures are competitive. In his last start (the Private Terms at Laurel), in which he rallied from 18 lengths back at the first call, Kid Cruz earned a 98 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is a 104) and a -7 late speed ration (LSR).
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    2-WICKED STRONG
    His subpar speed rating in the Remsen can be excused due to the slug-slow pace in that affair, but there is absolutely no excuse for his subsequent impression of a tortoise in both the Holy Bull and an optional claiming event.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    3-NOBLE MOON
    This guy appears to be moving in the right direction, but he needs a major performance boost to compete with the likes of these. The 91-day layoff doesn’t inspire confidence either… although the last two workouts — both at a mile — are very interesting indeed.
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    4-HARPOON
    I suspect this son of Tapit was entered solely because the connections expect — or are hoping for — a pace meltdown. Personally, I think Harpoon’s subpar LSRs — a -12 in the Gotham and -10 in the Sam F. Davis — make this hope a forlorn one.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    5-LOS BORRACHOS
    His latest LSR (-2) was great… but it was earned in a race that featured an 84 Brisnet speed figure (BSF).
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    6-KRISTO
    After a decent try in the Grade III Sham, this colt proved unratable in the San Felipe and would up getting beat by 13 ½ lengths. The presence of Martin Garcia in the saddle today makes me think the game plan will be to stick much closer to the pace this time.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    7-SCHIVARELLI
    Son of the speedy Montbrook (6.3 AWD of progeny) is bred to be a sprinter, but he’s very intriguing in this spot. Not only does he look like the quickest of the quick, but his last race (granted, it was a lowly optional claiming affair) wasn’t half-bad. Schivarelli earned a 98 BSF while recording a positive pace profile in a dominant win on Feb. 21. Even a repeat of that effort makes him interesting.
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    8-SAMRAAT
    Love the way this colt has progressed. His speed figures are solid, if not spectacular (he’s earned a 99 BSF in each of his last three races), and his overall LSRs are second only to Effinex (who is much slower). Forget the state-bred nonsense — those races were last year; this year, the son of Noble Causeway has been nothing but money.
    Fair Odds: 2-1

    9-EFFINEX
    To paraphrase those commercials, trainer David J. Smith doesn’t win often, but when he does… well, he makes ‘em count. I suspect Effinex is too slow to compete against the likes of these, but the colt did improve greatly in his first start under Smith.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    10-UNCLE SIGH
    He’s game as they come, with solid overall speed and pace figures. Price is key.
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    11-SOCIAL INCLUSION
    So, here’s the deal: Yes, this colt is talented, but, as I’ve often said, finding a talented horse is not what betting the races is all about — or even partially about. If you’re seeking the most talented contender in a race, just check out the tote board.

    Social Inclusion is likely to be favored today; on that, most racing fans agree. And that favoritism will be based on one race — a wire-to-wire score in an allowance race featuring an absurdly slow pace (0 early speed ration) over a notoriously speed-favoring track (Gulfstream Park) on March 12.

    Oh, and did I forget? Social Inclusion broke from post 1 that day.

    Today, he starts from the 11-hole, faces several other prominent speedsters and meets Grade I competition for the first time in his career.

    Anybody taking 2-1 on his chances is either crazy or incredibly brave… I’ll make a case for straitjackets.
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    SANTA ANITA DERBY
    8th Santa Anita Park (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
    Son of Bluegrass Cat with the low-percentage connections is still a maiden, although his numbers are OK (not good, just OK).
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    2-FRIENDSWITH K MILL
    Do you want to know the story about how this colt got his name? Yeah, neither do I. I just know it’s awful. That said, this Doug O’Neil trainee put in a decent run last time while vastly improving his previous numbers on dirt.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    3-HOPPERTUNITY
    Great last race (95 BSF, -5 LSR) and no knocks to speak of.
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    4-BIG TIRE          
    Just broke his maiden (in start number six) and will need to improve greatly to even get a sniff against this group.
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    5-CALIFORNIA CHROME
    His combination of overall speed and quickness looks formidable. Interestingly, although California Chrome’s sire (Lucky Pulpit) gets 80 percent of his wins in races under a mile, his progeny also show great improvement, from a speed figure standpoint, in routes. Art Sherman trainee is a legitimate favorite.
    Fair Odds: 7-5

    6-CANDY BOY
    Still like this guy as a Kentucky Derby candidate, but the reality is he will need to improve several lengths to visit the winner’s circle today. Can he do it? Of course. Will he do it? That’s what fair odds are for.
    Fair Odds: 3-1

    7-SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
    Looked short in the San Felipe, but exactly how good is the son of Rock Hard Ten? I guess we’ll find out.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    8-DUBLIN UP
    Another maiden trying winners, except this guy is from connections familiar to the Triple Crown trail — Donegal Racing. However, that doesn’t make the Peter Miller trainee any faster
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • Give and takeout

    POSTED Jun 7, 2012 By Unknown
    A very specific subset of TwinSpires.com users received good news on Tuesday.

    If you were one of 22,574 players who placed Pick 3, Pick 4, trifecta, or superfecta wagers on New York Racing Associations tracks from mid September 2010 through mid December 2011 and won any of those wagers, then you received a positive adjustment on your account to reflect the difference between payouts based on 26% and 25% takeout.

    If you didn't get an e-mail then that means you either A) didn't play the aforementioned wagers at the aforementioned tracks, or B) are not a TwinSpires.com member.

    If it's the former then I will remind you that NYRA has reduced its takeout on those wagers to 24%, which is a lot better deal than 26%. A wager in those pools that had paid $500 now pays $513. Not bad!

    If it's the latter, then what are you waiting for? TwinSpires.com boasts that it's Where Players Win, but more importantly it's where Players Get Treated Fairly as well.

    I've already spent my adjustment chasing the double carryover in the Pick 5 on Wednesday at Delaware Park. I was seven-deep in a 12-horse field for payouts ranging from $800-$15,000 and couldn't get the job done, but it was a nice thrill for a Wednesday afternoon 

    Of course many more thrills await this weekend. The TwinSpires.com Player's Pool is back in action, and hopefully the Belmont Pick 6 will carry again into Friday to give us a nice double carryover to chase with some of our $75,000. There are other promotions as well, including the chance to win a souvenir win ticket on I'll Have Another by wagering $50 on Belmont day, a chance for triple TSC Elite points for correctly identifying whether I'll Have Another will win, top handicapping information, and the best online tournament structure offering the most chances to qualify for top Vegas tournaments.

    TwinSpires.com offers great promotions, contests, and giveaways every day, and they're all on the web for people to see. TwinSpires.com offers great customer service every day, too, and while that's harder to illustrate on a daily basis, this week's positive adjustment for 22,574 shows it's just as important to us as fun contests and great handicapping info.

  • Will I’ll Have Another Win the Triple Crown?

    POSTED Jun 6, 2012 By Derek Simon

    I’ll Have Another’s Triple Crown quest has become downright Shakespearean: it is to be or not to be. Of course, the racing fan side of me — my left side as it turns out — desperately wants to see history made in Elmont, NY on Saturday. Yet, the value bettor side of me is screaming for an upset.

    Let’s be clear: I’ll Have Another will be an underlay this weekend. Given the inevitable souvenir ticket purchases — you can even buy them online — he almost has to be. Plus, as we’ve seen in years past, when a Triple Crown is on the line, rational betting often takes a leave of absence.

    There have been 30 horses that came to the Big Apple in search of eternal glory — almost all of them were bet like they’d already achieved it. The last winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness not to be favored in the Belmont Stakes was Assault in 1946… and he wound up winning the Triple Crown. Still, as the chart below reflects, a $2 win bet on all of the Triple Crown hopefuls in the Belmont has produced an ROI of -41.5 percent, including a -78.42 percent ROI over the past 50 years.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Will I’ll Have Another stop the bleeding? My heart says yes, my head says no.

    For a detailed analysis of the Test of Champions, including my suggested wagers, check out the video below (and remember to get your Ultimate Belmont Stakes Handicapping Package, which includes my special Belmont Betting Guide, at Brisnet.com):


    Free Pace Profile Report

    Click HERE for a free Pace Profile Report for races 6-11 from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 9, 2012.

  • The Mo-illion dollar question

    POSTED Aug 25, 2011 By Unknown
    The New York Racing Association is guaranteeing that its all-stakes pick four pool on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course generates at least $1,000,000 in handle, meaning at least $740,000 will be available for those who successfully navigate the tricky sequence that begins in race 9 with the Victory Ride Stakes for three-year-old filly sprinters and concludes in race 12 with the Travers Stakes for three-year-old male classic types.

    And while that latter race is not only the main event of a blockbuster 13-race card worth $2,236,000 but also the entire Saratoga meeting, much attention will be on the preceding 11th race, the King's Bishop Stakes for three-year-old male sprinters/middle distance types featuring the return of undefeated two-year-old champion Uncle Mo.

    The Indian Charlie colt, off since suffering his first career defeat on April 9 when third to Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale in the Wood Memorial Stakes, is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite in the King's Bishop with the multiple graded stakes-winning Flashpoint installed as the 5-to-2 second choice on Eric Donovan's line. The other six horses in the field are between 9-to-2 and 20-to-1.

    To me, it's an either-or race. Either you think Uncle Mo will win and he's the only horse you should use, or you think he won't win and you shouldn't use him at all. His price just leaves no wiggle room to hedge with other horses.

    For the pick fours (there's also a pick four on the last four races of the day) and grand slam purposes, I'm in the Uncle-Mo's-a-winner camp. Using BRIS pace figures, any repeat of any of his first three races, including his career debut when winning a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 14 lengths on Travers day last year, wins this easily. His early pace numbers are right there with Flashpoint, and his late pace numbers are the fastest in the race.

    Think about that.

    At his best, Uncle Mo can duel with Flashpoint going as fast as Flashpoint has gone when winning graded stakes gate-to-wire and still be faster than all of the other "closers" late in the race.

    Going any deeper than Uncle Mo doubles, triples, quadruples, etc. the size of any pick four ticket. If I didn't like him I wouldn't use him at all. Too often people use overbet favorites they don't like as insurance or because they don't want to get beat by a horse like Uncle Mo. My experience is that such strategy certainly costs you value in the long run. A) you're not betting your opinion--a deadly sin of horseplaying; B) you're playing not to lose instead of to win--it's scared money.

    Oddly enough, I'm certainly not looking to talk anyone on Uncle Mo. He'll probably be an underlay in the win pool, but I do think enough people will want to spread around him in the pick fours to create some value in that wager. Overall, I'd rather be deep in the other races and take my chances with the only champion in the sequence.