Showing posts with label breeding. Show all posts
Showing posts with label breeding. Show all posts

  • Pedigree Profiles of Top Kentucky Derby Candidates

    POSTED Feb 28, 2014 By Derek Simon

    I’ll admit it: I’ve never been one to put much stock in pedigree when it comes to determining the outcome of a horse race. After all, did anybody see Johnny Manziel’s dad strut his stuff at the NFL Combine this past week? Does anybody actually care what the old man’s 40-yard dash time was... or is?

    I think not.

    Yet, clearly, horse racing is different than football. For one thing, human athletes aren’t “bred,” much to the dismay of some of my more athletic — and immature — friends.

    And there’s big money in those planned matings. In 2013, over half a billion dollars was spent at the various Keeneland sales alone. In 2006, a record $16 million was spent on a single horse — The Green Monkey, a son of Forestry who never won a race and has flopped as a sire as well.


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    Still, there’s something to be said for pedigree. Just like the phrase “now, there’s a level-headed chap” is rarely applied to any of the Baldwin brothers, Kentucky Derby Champion is a title generally reserved for three-year-old colts and fillies with some stamina in their bloodlines.

    So, with the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 kicking off on Wednesday, I thought it would be a good time to do a little research on past Derby winners and present Derby contenders. I want to find out which animals have the pedigrees to win and which do not.


    First, let’s look at the Kentucky Derby winners over the past 15 years:


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    What does the fox... uh, I mean numbers... say:

    1) Every Derby winner since 1999 was sired by a stallion with an average winning distance (AWD) of 6.6 furlongs or greater.

    2) Just two (War Emblem and Smarty Jones) of the past 15 Derby champs had a sire whose progeny competed in routes (races of a mile or greater) in less than a third of their starts.

    3) 14 of the last 15 Derby winners had sires whose progeny improved their average Brisnet speed figure by at least two points when routing as opposed to a sprinting.

    Now let’s take a gander at the individual KDFW Pool 3 contenders:


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    What the numbers say:

    A) Based solely on bloodlines, Bayern, California Chrome, General A Rod, Uncle Sigh, Vicar’s In Trouble and Wildcat Red are all Derby tosses.

    B) Intense Holiday, Samraat and Tamarando are question marks in the pedigree area.

    While I certainly don’t think a horse’s breeding necessarily dictates its performance on the track — remember, Secretariat was believed to have distance limitations — these stats do make the case that good parenting matters.

    If you need further proof, just look at Justin Bieber.

  • Will Orb Be a Successful Sire? Don't Bet On It.

    POSTED Nov 21, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I was not a fan of Orb, the race horse.

    On the first Saturday in May, when the bay son of Malibu Moon came barreling down the stretch to catch Golden Soul and Revolutionary — two horses I did like — and win the 2013 Kentucky Derby, my opinion cost me.

    Yet, just a few weeks later, after racing fans and pundits alike had anointed Orb “the chosen one”— the three-year-old superstar destined to break the Triple Crown drought and “save” racing (sometimes I think racing has been saved more than “sugar bear” from that old Elton John song) — I was vindicated.

    Orb finished a non-threatening fourth in the Preakness Stakes and followed that up with a distant third in the Belmont Stakes. After a brief freshening, he returned with an encouraging third-place showing behind eventual Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Will Take Charge in the Travers and, then, got crushed by 22 ¼ lengths in Jockey Club Gold Cup against older foes.

    It was shortly after the Gold Cup debacle that owners Stuart Janney and Phipps Stable decided to call it a career for Orb. As usual, it was economics — Adam Smith’s detestable “invisible hand” — that played the largest part in the decision.

    “From an economic point of view, the risk/reward is not what you’d like,” Janney told turf writer Joe Clancy. “I was pretty optimistic that he would have had a really good four-year-old year, but at the end of the day it was going to be tough to bring him back. If everything went right, we were looking at a 10-percent upside if he had a good year and a 40-percent downside if he didn’t.”

    “You might as well take advantage of the value that’s out there at the time,” echoed Claude “Shug” McGaughey, Orb’s trainer. “If something were to happen next year, and he got hurt or didn’t have a good year, then we didn’t make the right decision for him or for anybody.”

    I wonder.

    I mean, look, I get it: There is value in winning America’s greatest horse race, the Kentucky Derby. And that value extends beyond the purse or the prestige of the race. But given that racing is a business and that retiring Orb was, by the owner’s own admission, a business decision, I’ve got to question the “business” assumption that winning the Kentucky Derby makes one… well, uh, a better lover.

    Frankly, when I factor in the way in which he won the Derby — reserved early in a race that featured a torrid pace — I become almost convinced that Orb is going to be a dud at stud.

    However, before I present my case, I thought I would consult with some experts in the field. Although I’m sure many assume just by looking at my driver's license picture that I am “in the know” when it comes to the mating habits of horses, the truth is I know very little about the subject.

    Laura Ross, on the other hand, knows her studs… although she would probably prefer that I express my confidence in her abilities as a bloodlines expert some other way. According to Ross, “Orb has the pedigree to do extremely well at stud.”

    “His female family is pure class,” she wrote me. “His dam was an allowance-class winner; second dam was a stakes winner; and his third through fifth dams are blue hens.

    “Orb likely carries the X-Factor gene through his dam,” Ross continued. “If so, he will pass it along to his fillies, who could become amazing runners. His offspring will be mid- to late-season two-year-olds (July onwards) and most will prefer going a mile and farther. He has the pedigree to sire a classic winner.”

    Stop. You had me at X-Factor, Laura. (Does this mean that Simon Cowell might be able to “save” racing as well?)

     

    Ryan Patterson of GradedStakes.com agrees with Ross — but not because of Orb’s X-Factor. Instead, Patterson is impressed by Orb’s package (again, Ryan would probably prefer different wording).

    “[Orb] is what everyone should be looking for in a stallion,” he notes. “Precocious, athletic, well bodied, well-bred and a Grade 1 classic winner on the track … Orb is the complete package.”

    Sid Fernando, former bloodstock editor of The Daily Racing Form, had this to say: “It's the only Phipps Derby winner, and Phipps-bred sires are terrific prospects. So many have done well, including many lesser-raced than Orb. Claiborne is hot right now with War Front, and that helps to draw mares. Plus, Orb is by the AP-line, and Claiborne lost their good son of AP, Pulpit.”

    OK, now here’s why I think that these fine folks — who have probably forgotten more about pedigree research than I know — are wrong about Orb.

    He doesn’t have any speed.

    And past Derby winners who lacked early foot simply haven’t fared that well in the breeding shed. The chart below lists the Derby winners with highest (slowest) early speed rations in modern (post-1920’s) Kentucky Derby history:



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    While the Sire Production Index (SPI), which relates the earnings of a sire’s progeny to the national average, is slightly higher than normal (1.00), the adjusted SPI, which factors in the quality of the dam, is lower than normal.

    Of course, I understand that these numbers are difficult to gauge in a vacuum, so I’ve also produced stats on Derby winners that recorded the lowest (fastest) ESRs since 1930. This list is headed by a horse that many consider to be one of the most influential sires of the past 20-40 years — the late, great Seattle Slew:



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    * Won the Triple Crown.

    Notice that the “early speed” Derby winners were better sires in nearly every category — more crops, more foals, more foals and starters to win, more lifetime starts, more lifetime wins and a higher SPI and adjusted SPI.

    Ironically (given that we’re told breeders focus on speed rather than stamina these days), 12 of the 13 horses on the latter list raced prior to 2000, whereas five (of 14) on the former list met that criterion. 

    What do you think? 

    How will Orb perform as a sire?





      
    Courtesy of Pollcode.com free polls 

  • Playing the Pick Three

    POSTED Jan 19, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I have long stated that horizontal wagers are a tricky business. Not only is it difficult to pick three winners in a row, but one is also at the mercy of the crowd, dependent on Lady Luck for a decent price or two to make the wager worthwhile.

     Back in March, I wrote about how one could lessen this risk and locate potential value legs in a horizontal sequence. Using my Win Factor line (although any type of grading technique would do), “I found that if my top two contenders had a combined morning line odds ranking of 10 or greater or if my top three contenders had a total morning line odds ranking of 15 or greater, the race generally presented great pick-3 or even daily double possibilities.”

     Of course, we all know that there can be a big difference between practice and theory, so I decided to put my money where my mouth is this weekend and test my pick-3 theories on real, live races… with real (though fortunately not live) money.

    On Saturday, I looked at races from two of my favorite winter tracks, Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs.

    At Aqueduct, I thought the pick-3 starting in the fourth race looked promising. Here’s what my Win Factor Report showed:

     (Click on image to enlarge)

    Now, there were two things I liked about this particular sequence: 1) The top three contenders in the opening leg had a combined morning-line odds ranking of 12, while the final leg had a ranking (after scratches) of 18; 2) Sandwiched in between those events was the fifth race, in which N. F.’s Destiny looked like a virtual lock following the withdrawal of Driven by Solar, Isn’tlovejustgrand and Warrioroftheroses.

    As it turned out, I decided to toss out 3-Why Not Her in the opening leg due to the fact that her speed and pace figures were horrible (frankly, Awesome Island’s weren’t a lot better… but she was 38-1, whereas Why Not Her was 6-1).


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    So what happened?

    Well, She’s Gospel led from flag fall to finish in the fourth race, N. F.’s Destiny cruised in the fifth event and Maggiesfreuddnslip scored a predictable 32-1 upset in the sixth. The $1 pick three paid $214.25 (my actual bet on TwinSpires.com is listed below).


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    The other pick-3 sequence I liked on Saturday began in the ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs. Again, here is what my Win Factor Report looked like:


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    I was fond of this particular sequence for different reasons than the Aqueduct sequence. Despite the fact that he was favored on my WFR line, I thought Dazzlin Dr. Cologne was very beatable — at short odds — in the ninth race.

    Look at his past performances and see if you can tell why.

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    Notice that for all intents and purposes Dazzlin Dr Cologne, who was the odds-on favorite in this race, needs the lead to win. Yet, even with the scratch of the ultra-speedy Raven Train, the Tampa Bay ninth was loaded with early speed types and the only times the eight-year-old gelded son of Cutlass Fax had to exert himself in the early going (-11 ESR on Dec. 26 and -10 ESR on Jan. 10, 2012) he recorded subpar speed figures.

     I also liked the final leg of the sequence, where Sarge’s, Ashtyn Too and Beat Your Bluff had a cumulative odds ranking of 17.

     I admit when it came time to bet, I kind of wimped out and decided to use (the bad) "Doctor" just in case I had misjudged the early pressure he would face. I also threw in 6-Follow the Rhythm, who had good pace figures, in the ninth; and I tossed in 8-Sleepless Knight in the eighth for the same reason.

    It turns out I needn’t have bothered.

    2-Fifth Street won the ninth, 11-Alley Oop Oop triumphed by the scantest of margins in the 10th and Ashtyn Too found an opening on the rail to annex the 11th.


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    Try this approach to your own horizontal wagers and see if it helps. By looking for a leg or two that you have a strong opinion in — along with some value — you may boost your ROI at the track, along with your enjoyment of the races.


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     Best of Breeding

    If you’re like a lot of my degenerate handicapping friends and love to delve into horses’ pedigrees, you’ll want to check out American Produce Records from Brisnet.com. Not only will you get great stats, you’ll get ‘em for FREE until the end of the month.

    And the Winners Are…

    The hand-wringing, posturing and self-serving braggadocio is over… at least until next year. At Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida, on Saturday, the 42nd Annual Eclipse Awards ceremony took place. Below is a list of the big winners:

    TWO-YEAR-OLD COLT – Shanghai Bobby
    TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLY – Beholder
    STEEPLECHASE HORSE – Pierrot Lunaire
    FEMALE TURF HORSE – Zagora
    MALE TURF HORSE – Wise Dan
    FEMALE SPRINTER – Groupie Doll
    MALE SPRINTER – Trinniberg
    THREE-YEAR-OLD COLT – I'll Have Another
    THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY – Questing
    OLDER FEMALE – Royal Delta
    OLDER MALE – Wise Dan
    HORSE OF THE YEAR – Wise Dan