Showing posts with label Moreno. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moreno. Show all posts

  • The Travers Travesty

    POSTED Sep 5, 2013 By Derek Simon
    The Daily Racing Form headline said it all: “Will Take Charge's jockey accused by rival trainer of using electrical device in Travers.”

     Great. The biggest race of the year at one of the most prestigious race meetings in the country — Saratoga — marred by accusations of cheating. Maybe next year Ryan Braun can give the call for “riders up.”

    “We have received a complaint that we are thoroughly investigating,” noted Lee Park, a spokesman for the New York Gaming Commission, “and we have sought the assistance of the New York State Police, which has expertise in video analysis…. I cannot confirm what came with the complaint. However, I can confirm … that we do have more than one video of the race that’s being reviewed.”

    Of course, there’s little doubt where the complaint came from. Eric Guillot, trainer of the second-place finisher Moreno, was hardly coy in his assessment of how Will Take Charge managed to defeat his sophomore star.

    “To me, the horse was dead in the water four jumps out from the wire when he hit him with the machine, he surged,” Guillot told The Daily Racing Form. “Pretty suspicious why they had a jock change coming off a second place in the Jim Dandy.”

    Guillot was referring to the fact that 21-year-old Luis Saez replaced Junior Alvarado as the rider of Will Take Charge after the Jim Dandy, a traditional prep for the Travers, also run at Saratoga.

    I know what some of you are thinking: Who cares what Guillot thinks? The guy is his own reality TV show, one Fruit Loop short of a box; he makes Amanda Bynes appear rational.

    True, but in this instance, he seems sincere, at least to me.

    “One thing I have with all the [stuff] I talk is integrity,” Guillot said. “Integrity goes a long way with me. This industry needs it. This will be a black eye to the industry. But I think if we all clean up the rats and flush them out, we’ll have no more problems in the future. I feel sorry for the industry and the gamblers, the people that bet on him at 30-1, for it to come to this.”

    In any event, I thought Guillot’s claims were worthy of my own investigation, so I analyzed the race replay on TwinSpires.com looking for clues of a conspiracy.

    Sadly, I found more than that — much more. In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that what I discovered from the videotape and still photos that I scrutinized has implications far beyond racing.

    I know a picture is worth a thousand words, so I produced a video detailing my findings (below). After you watch it, I’m confident that you will be convinced — as I was — that what occurred at Saratoga racecourse on Aug. 24, 2013, can never be allowed to happen again.

    I can only hope that the principals involved will be dealt with and that this sport — a sport that I dearly love — can move forward in the aftermath of this insidious event.

    Note: The views expressed in this video may or may not be — but definitely aren't — true. Some names have been changed to protect the sane.

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  • The Travers Stakes 'Conspiracy'

    POSTED Aug 23, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I’m not one for conspiracy theories.

    Despite the recent CIA admission that Area 51 does, indeed, exist, I don’t believe that little green guys from a distant planet are playing an extraterrestrial version of “Punk’d” on the citizens — all 57 of ‘em — of Rachel, Nev.

    Likewise, I don’t believe that the Moon Landing was an elaborate hoax or that Elvis Presley hasn’t left the building.

    But I’m concerned about Saturday’s Travers Stakes.

    In what way, you ask? Have I received word that Tupac Shakur will be listed as a late rider change, replacing Joel Rosario aboard Orb? Am I privy to inside information on Moreno?

    Of course not.

    We all know that even Tupac’s hologram is too heavy to ride Orb and that trainer Eric Guillot would never pass on secret information regarding his stable star — he’s already made his thoughts on Moreno public… over and over again.

    No, my suspicions have to do with the tactics of two primary contenders in Saturday’s Saratoga feature and the unintended consequences of an oft-dissed and dismissed racing rule.

    You see, back in the early days of racing, the powers that be realized that horses owned and/or trained by the same individual(s) presented a dilemma to the betting public: mainly, that one or more of those entrants would be in the race strictly to benefit one of the others.

    For example, everybody with functioning gray cells knows that Hedevar was not entered to win the 1967 Woodward Stakes or the 1968 Brooklyn Handicap. Trainer Frank Whitely, Jr. entered Hedevar in those races for one reason and one reason only: to run Dr. Fager off his feet and set the table for Damascus, Whitely’s 1967 Horse of the Year.

    However, since both Hedevar and Damascus were coupled in the wagering, i.e. they ran as a single betting interest, it really didn’t matter what Hedevar did — unless you were a fan of Dr. Fager, of course (sportsmanship is not the issue I’m tackling here).
    Over the years, as field sizes waned and the public’s appetite for more betting choices increased, the rules governing coupled entries have been greatly relaxed. Today it is not uncommon to see horses owned by the same connections listed as separate betting interests.


    For the most part, these relaxed rules have not posed a problem… but Saturday’s Travers Stakes is different.



    In the Travers, two of the main contenders, both trained by Todd Pletcher, have similar running styles and what they decide to do, tactically, could literally spell the difference between victory and defeat — for one or both of them.

    Of course, I’m talking about Verrazano, the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Travers, and Palace Malice, the 5-2 second choice.



    NOTE: Click HERE for a free sample report that explains what the data above means.

    Both horses like to be on or near the pace and, while I was not overly impressed with Verrazano’s latest score in the Haskell (I thought the -6 late speed ration was a little weak), I do think that his success — or lack thereof — hinges on what his stablemate elects to do.

    Simply put, Palace Malice is incredibly versatile. He won the Belmont after recording a ridiculously fast -11 early speed ration and, then, rated beautifully in the Jim Dandy while earning a 0 ESR.

    When one considers that both Verrazano and Moreno prefer a slow and steady pace — Guillot has publicly admitted this (I told you earlier the guy likes to talk) — I think “Palace” should press the early issue. In effect, do to Moreno and Verrazano what Hedevar did to Dr. Fager nearly 40 years ago — run them off their feet.

    The question is: Will he? Will Pletcher allow one of his entries to compromise the chances of the other? Or will he play it safe and send neither horse to the lead.

    Guillot paints a picture of what could happen should the latter transpire.

    "I would imagine Todd wouldn't be pressing his own horse with Palace Malice and Verrazano together; that wouldn't make much sense," he told The Bloodhorse. "So, somebody's going to push me, and, hopefully, they push me so far up front, or push me to the point where the other one can't catch up. That would be the best-case scenario."

    This is why the coupling rules were initially put in place… and why I’m concerned about the Travers Stakes.

    Biggie vs. Tupac

    On this week’s “Simon Says” podcast for TwinSpires.com, I had an interesting discussion with Ed DeRosa about the so-called East Coast Bias.


    Knowing that my colleague was born in Ohio — he recently went back and his city was gone (sorry, I couldn’t help myself) — I naturally assumed that Ed would vehemently disagree with my assertion that the East Coast Bias in racing is alive and well.

    Much to my surprise, Ed agreed with me.

    “There’s an East Coast Bias,” he stated, adding, “By and large, I sorta agree with your point that the onus to ship east is completely unfair when many of these horses — champions — don’t ship west either.”

    I think the following table, which lists the last 10 Horse of the Year winners illustrates the point quite nicely:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


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  • The case for Orb to win the Travers Stakes

    POSTED By Unknown
    The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK.

     When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed.

     So here it is. My pick to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes--a race for three-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles on dirt on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course is...

    There are plenty of reasons not to like Orb: The Preakness was dreadful, and he flattened in the Belmont before an 11-week break into this. That'd be enough to pass at even money, but I'm hoping for 4-to-1 against a competitive group. His Kentucky Derby remains among the fastest race of the year, and while it'd be easy to assess that to track condition and pace (both factors, yes), neither of those things were in play when he romped in the Florida Derby over eventual Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday.

    The other thing I like about Orb is his running style. He has the reputation as being a closer, but he's capable of making a strong move earlier in the race as needed--like in the Derby when he moved from 17th to 5th on the far turn.

     Given Moreno's suicide mission to try to win the Travers gate to wire (granted, the only way he can win), Verrazano and Palace Malice will be breathing down his back. It'll be interesting to see which stablemate moves first, but I can't imagine Joel Rosario will want either to be far away when they all turn for home. Those who think Orb is a deep closer do so at the risk of not realizing he might be in front by the eighth pole.
    Orb's Class Ratings, pace figures, & Speed Ratings
    Orb is one of four horses in the Travers who have run a 120+ E2 pace rating. This rating measures a horse's pace from the start of a race to the second call. Orb earned his 122 in the Kentucky Derby, which as a route means that figure represents his speed for the first six furlongs. Following that 122 Orb earned a late pace rating of 91, which is easily the highest LP figure of any of the 120+ horses. Verrazano posted a 126 in the Derby and came home with a 55. Will Take Charge did a 121-67 in the Derby, and Palace Malice went 129-57.

     Yes, a slower pace is expected here, which we certainly have seen can benefit Palace Malice at longer distances (he won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont with a 109-104-88 versus 127-129-57 for the Derby) and Verrazano at shorter distances (he's the only horse in the race to be above par at every point in call in a singular race, which he did in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell when earning pace ratings of 102-115-101), but the aforementioned presence of Moreno sets it up for the pop we saw from Orb in the Derby.

     So that's my case for Orb on top, but I think the best wagering opportunity is in betting against a 2-3-8 exacta box. That is, playing against two of Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice, respectively, to finish out of the top two. So for me, if Verrazano or Palace Malice wins that's OK as long as either of the Godolphin pair (#1 Romansh or #9 Transparent) sneaks in underneath, and I'll also put my thing down, flip it, and reverse it Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott style.

     So 2, 3, 8 with 1, 9 and 1, 9 with 2, 3, 8 for $12 plus a $1 exacta box 1-9 for a little insanity insurance (plus my birthday is 1-9).

     I'll pay attention to the odds board, though. Orb is a play for me at 4-to-1. Given the big day and casual crowd, I think there's a better chance I get the right price on one of the big three than the others, and I think Orb is the most likely to offer that fair price.