Showing posts with label Palace Malice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Palace Malice. Show all posts

  • Florida Derby Analysis & Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    POSTED Mar 28, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Great weekend of racing on tap! Below is a look at Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby, along with free handicapping reports for Fair Grounds:

    FLORIDA DERBY (GRADE I)
    3/29/14 Gulfstream Park (race 14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt).

    1-WILDCAT RED
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    Gutsy win in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 22, a race in which he battled with General A Rod throughout and prevailed by a head bob. So, the $1 million question is: Was there an early speed bias that day (as so many racing fans and pundits assert)?

    The stats are inconclusive.

    Yes, five of the six dirt races were won by the horse leading at the first call at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 22; however, three of those winners were favored — two quite heavily (even odds and 3-5).

    Still, there’s something else that concerns me about Wildcat Red. We know he’s quick — as a son of D’Wildcat, this is hardly unique — so what’s with the three-furlong drill on March 22? Statistically speaking, this is a huge no-no, particularly in route races (as the table below, culled from one of my databases of past race results, amply demonstrates):


    And don’t be fooled by the fast time of that workout — bullet works at three furlongs produced even worse results than non-bullet works (0.83 IV, 0.74 OBIV).


    2-MATADOR
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    His only win came on the grass and yielded a -13 late speed ration (LSR), which is awful. The blinkers go on today, but it’s hard to get too excited about this guy unless there is a complete pace meltdown.

    3-CAIRO PRINCE
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    The connections are strong, the breeding is strong and this colt hints at greater talent. The only issue I have is the 63-day layoff since his last start in the Holy Bull and the fact that his effort in that race was not as good as it looks on paper.

    Sure, Cairo Prince won that Jan. 25 Grade II affair by 5 ¾ lengths, but the resulting 98 Brisnet speed (BSF) figure and -8 LSR are only so-so.

    Is so-so good enough for a horse that is likely to be favored? I don’t think so.

    4-CONSTITUTION
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    If, in fact, Gulfstream Park featured a main-track early speed bias on Feb. 22, what does that say for this horse, who posted the highest, i.e. slowest, early speed ration (-1) on dirt in wiring the sixth race of the day?

    Granted, the son of Tapit appears to have a lot of upside, but, with Todd Pletcher listed as the trainer, all thoughts of value go down the proverbial drain.

    5-EAST HALL
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    On paper, this gelded son of Graeme Hall looks hopeless, but he’s recorded some LSRs that I think (perhaps foolishly) give him a puncher’s chance if the pace is unduly fast.

    6-GENERAL A ROD
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    Trainer Mike Maker has said this colt represents the “best chance I’ve ever had” to win the Kentucky Derby. Putting aside Maker’s abysmal record in the Run for the Roses for a second, it’s easy to see why the veteran conditioner is so enthusiastic.

    This son of Roman Ruler (I know, that’s a problem) has improved in every start and is as game as they get. Plus, I think he’s better suited to carry his speed than Wildcat Red, whom he dropped a narrow decision to in the Fountain of Youth. Check out the way he galloped out after that race:


    I suspect this guy will get lost in the betting — and he shouldn’t.

    7-ALLSTAR
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    Earned a 78 BSF and -16 LSR in capturing a cheap N1X allowance race at Calder last time. His presence in this race makes me think I should have held my own “pro day” in hopes of making it into the NFL… at the age of 46… with no discernable talent.

    8-SPOT
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    His running style is ideal, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about a closer that earned a -15 LSR in its latest outing. That said, any improvement puts this dude in the hunt.

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

    FREE Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    Fair Grounds has a fantastic card scheduled for Saturday, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby and Palace Malice’s return to the bayou in the New Orleans Handicap.

    Below are links to some FREE reports:

    Win Factor Report
    Pace Profile Report

  • Game On Dude still the country's best horse

    POSTED Aug 26, 2013 By Unknown
    The results of this weekend's races--despite the favorite rolling in the Pacific Classic Stakes and an upset in the Travers--did nothing to change my thoughts on the championship picture for Horse of the Year and three-year-old male, respectively.
    Game On Dude is still in the Horse of the Year drivers seat by virtue of his third Grade 1 win--all at 1 1/4 miles and on three different surfaces. Wise Dan could have five Grade 1 wins by the end of the year, but it will be impossible to deny Game On Dude Eclipse Awards as Horse of the Year and champion older male if he finally gets his Breeders' Cup Classic (he'd have won both awards in 2011 or 2012 with a win in that race).

     I've had Game On Dude "ranked" on top since his Hollywood Gold Cup win, and he'll stay there unless he loses the Breeders' Cup.

     And Orb is still the top three-year-old male by virtue of his Kentucky and Florida Derby wins to go along with blacktype in the Belmont and Travers Stakes. Palace Malice remains in second with the Belmont and Jim Dandy wins, but is in a position of needing to win races to dethrone Orb. "Much the best" fourth-place finishes won't cut it--even in great races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup or Breeders' Cup Classic.

     Speaking of Palace Malice and the Travers, him rounding out the superfecta has to be the most celebrated fourth-place finish in the history of the Turf outside Jazil and Brother Derek dead heating for fourth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. I don't disagree that he was among the best in the race, but I don't think he was "much the best" nor do I think he'll never lose to his peers again.

     Orb (my pick) had absolutely no excuse considering the trip. He flattened and somehow held on for show (this description works well for his Belmont as well), but unlike the Belmont when he was a gassed horse racing for the sixth time in five months, he probably needed this race. I'm not giving up on him--especially if he shows up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in the 10-to-1 range.
    Will Take Charge ran well considering how he had to get there, and he ran fast. I guess all this praise of the winner, third-, and fourth-place finishers means I should love Moreno, too, but I'm just not sold.

     As for Will Take Charge's championship aspirations, it comes down to winning. I still have him behind Verrazano on the three-year-old depth chart. The Travers is a real nice race to win but that and the Rebel doesn't usurp a Wood Memorial-Haskell double, though another graded win probably would--especially if it comes against older.

     My America's Best Racing/ESPN poll for the week is:

     1. Game On Dude, 2. Wise Dan, 3. Royal Delta, 4. Cross Traffic, 5. Obviously, 6. Point of Entry, 7. Sahara Sky, 8. Fort Larned, 9. Flat Out, 10. Successful Dan.

     Biggest race this coming weekend is the Woodward.

  • The Travers Stakes 'Conspiracy'

    POSTED Aug 23, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I’m not one for conspiracy theories.

    Despite the recent CIA admission that Area 51 does, indeed, exist, I don’t believe that little green guys from a distant planet are playing an extraterrestrial version of “Punk’d” on the citizens — all 57 of ‘em — of Rachel, Nev.

    Likewise, I don’t believe that the Moon Landing was an elaborate hoax or that Elvis Presley hasn’t left the building.

    But I’m concerned about Saturday’s Travers Stakes.

    In what way, you ask? Have I received word that Tupac Shakur will be listed as a late rider change, replacing Joel Rosario aboard Orb? Am I privy to inside information on Moreno?

    Of course not.

    We all know that even Tupac’s hologram is too heavy to ride Orb and that trainer Eric Guillot would never pass on secret information regarding his stable star — he’s already made his thoughts on Moreno public… over and over again.

    No, my suspicions have to do with the tactics of two primary contenders in Saturday’s Saratoga feature and the unintended consequences of an oft-dissed and dismissed racing rule.

    You see, back in the early days of racing, the powers that be realized that horses owned and/or trained by the same individual(s) presented a dilemma to the betting public: mainly, that one or more of those entrants would be in the race strictly to benefit one of the others.

    For example, everybody with functioning gray cells knows that Hedevar was not entered to win the 1967 Woodward Stakes or the 1968 Brooklyn Handicap. Trainer Frank Whitely, Jr. entered Hedevar in those races for one reason and one reason only: to run Dr. Fager off his feet and set the table for Damascus, Whitely’s 1967 Horse of the Year.

    However, since both Hedevar and Damascus were coupled in the wagering, i.e. they ran as a single betting interest, it really didn’t matter what Hedevar did — unless you were a fan of Dr. Fager, of course (sportsmanship is not the issue I’m tackling here).
    Over the years, as field sizes waned and the public’s appetite for more betting choices increased, the rules governing coupled entries have been greatly relaxed. Today it is not uncommon to see horses owned by the same connections listed as separate betting interests.


    For the most part, these relaxed rules have not posed a problem… but Saturday’s Travers Stakes is different.



    In the Travers, two of the main contenders, both trained by Todd Pletcher, have similar running styles and what they decide to do, tactically, could literally spell the difference between victory and defeat — for one or both of them.

    Of course, I’m talking about Verrazano, the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Travers, and Palace Malice, the 5-2 second choice.



    NOTE: Click HERE for a free sample report that explains what the data above means.

    Both horses like to be on or near the pace and, while I was not overly impressed with Verrazano’s latest score in the Haskell (I thought the -6 late speed ration was a little weak), I do think that his success — or lack thereof — hinges on what his stablemate elects to do.

    Simply put, Palace Malice is incredibly versatile. He won the Belmont after recording a ridiculously fast -11 early speed ration and, then, rated beautifully in the Jim Dandy while earning a 0 ESR.

    When one considers that both Verrazano and Moreno prefer a slow and steady pace — Guillot has publicly admitted this (I told you earlier the guy likes to talk) — I think “Palace” should press the early issue. In effect, do to Moreno and Verrazano what Hedevar did to Dr. Fager nearly 40 years ago — run them off their feet.

    The question is: Will he? Will Pletcher allow one of his entries to compromise the chances of the other? Or will he play it safe and send neither horse to the lead.

    Guillot paints a picture of what could happen should the latter transpire.

    "I would imagine Todd wouldn't be pressing his own horse with Palace Malice and Verrazano together; that wouldn't make much sense," he told The Bloodhorse. "So, somebody's going to push me, and, hopefully, they push me so far up front, or push me to the point where the other one can't catch up. That would be the best-case scenario."

    This is why the coupling rules were initially put in place… and why I’m concerned about the Travers Stakes.

    Biggie vs. Tupac

    On this week’s “Simon Says” podcast for TwinSpires.com, I had an interesting discussion with Ed DeRosa about the so-called East Coast Bias.


    Knowing that my colleague was born in Ohio — he recently went back and his city was gone (sorry, I couldn’t help myself) — I naturally assumed that Ed would vehemently disagree with my assertion that the East Coast Bias in racing is alive and well.

    Much to my surprise, Ed agreed with me.

    “There’s an East Coast Bias,” he stated, adding, “By and large, I sorta agree with your point that the onus to ship east is completely unfair when many of these horses — champions — don’t ship west either.”

    I think the following table, which lists the last 10 Horse of the Year winners illustrates the point quite nicely:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    FREE Win Factor Report for Saturday’s Jackpot Five

    Click HERE to receive your free Win Factor Report for Saturday’s Jackpot Five races.

  • The case for Orb to win the Travers Stakes

    POSTED By Unknown
    The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK.

     When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed.

     So here it is. My pick to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes--a race for three-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles on dirt on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course is...

    There are plenty of reasons not to like Orb: The Preakness was dreadful, and he flattened in the Belmont before an 11-week break into this. That'd be enough to pass at even money, but I'm hoping for 4-to-1 against a competitive group. His Kentucky Derby remains among the fastest race of the year, and while it'd be easy to assess that to track condition and pace (both factors, yes), neither of those things were in play when he romped in the Florida Derby over eventual Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday.

    The other thing I like about Orb is his running style. He has the reputation as being a closer, but he's capable of making a strong move earlier in the race as needed--like in the Derby when he moved from 17th to 5th on the far turn.

     Given Moreno's suicide mission to try to win the Travers gate to wire (granted, the only way he can win), Verrazano and Palace Malice will be breathing down his back. It'll be interesting to see which stablemate moves first, but I can't imagine Joel Rosario will want either to be far away when they all turn for home. Those who think Orb is a deep closer do so at the risk of not realizing he might be in front by the eighth pole.
    Orb's Class Ratings, pace figures, & Speed Ratings
    Orb is one of four horses in the Travers who have run a 120+ E2 pace rating. This rating measures a horse's pace from the start of a race to the second call. Orb earned his 122 in the Kentucky Derby, which as a route means that figure represents his speed for the first six furlongs. Following that 122 Orb earned a late pace rating of 91, which is easily the highest LP figure of any of the 120+ horses. Verrazano posted a 126 in the Derby and came home with a 55. Will Take Charge did a 121-67 in the Derby, and Palace Malice went 129-57.

     Yes, a slower pace is expected here, which we certainly have seen can benefit Palace Malice at longer distances (he won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont with a 109-104-88 versus 127-129-57 for the Derby) and Verrazano at shorter distances (he's the only horse in the race to be above par at every point in call in a singular race, which he did in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell when earning pace ratings of 102-115-101), but the aforementioned presence of Moreno sets it up for the pop we saw from Orb in the Derby.

     So that's my case for Orb on top, but I think the best wagering opportunity is in betting against a 2-3-8 exacta box. That is, playing against two of Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice, respectively, to finish out of the top two. So for me, if Verrazano or Palace Malice wins that's OK as long as either of the Godolphin pair (#1 Romansh or #9 Transparent) sneaks in underneath, and I'll also put my thing down, flip it, and reverse it Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott style.

     So 2, 3, 8 with 1, 9 and 1, 9 with 2, 3, 8 for $12 plus a $1 exacta box 1-9 for a little insanity insurance (plus my birthday is 1-9).

     I'll pay attention to the odds board, though. Orb is a play for me at 4-to-1. Given the big day and casual crowd, I think there's a better chance I get the right price on one of the big three than the others, and I think Orb is the most likely to offer that fair price.

  • The battle for three-year-old supremacy

    POSTED Aug 22, 2013 By Unknown
    The winner of this year's Travers Stakes has a good chance to become the first champion three-year-old male to win the midsummer classic since Summer Bird in 2009 and just the second in the past seven years, third in the past 12, and fourth in the past 18.

     Of course, it could be like 2007 when Street Sense became just the first Kentucky Derby winner to take the Travers since Thunder Gulch in 1995, but Street Sense ended up more like Sea Hero, who despite completing the rare Derby-Travers double, failed to earn the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male. Street Sense lost out to Curlin, who completed his season with a Jockey Club Gold Cup-Breeders' Cup Classic double, and Sea Hero somehow lost out to the late Prairie Bayou.

     One of those two scenarios is very likely to play out the remainder of the year. If one of the Grade 1 winners entered in this year's Travers (Orb, Palace Malice, and Verrazano) were to win the race, then he would unquestionably be the leader in the three-year-old division, and it would take a Curlin-like run at the end of the year for either of the also rans to catch up.

     Here's how I see the standings going into the race:
    1. Orb--Sure, his Triple Crown season following his sloppy Kentucky Derby win was less than stellar, but he did earn blacktype in the Belmont Stakes, which makes him just the second horse in the past nine years to do so (Mine That Bird was the other). No question he lost ground in the standings with his Preakness dud and non-threatening Belmont run, but two Grade 1 wins--including the biggest of all with the Derby--has him as head of the class. A Travers win or a loss by Verrazano & Palace Malice keeps him here.

     2. Palace Malice--I typically value Grade 1 wins over anything, but classic wins along with select Breeders' Cup races are essentially super Grade 1s in an era of too graded races to begin with. That's a long-winded way of saying Palace Malice's Belmont Stakes win means more to me than Verrazano's Wood and Haskell combined. Palace Malice also finished second in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and looked good in the Jim Dandy. A Travers win unquestionably moves him to the head of the class.

     3. Verrazano--Hard to imagine a colt with this much talent is third on any list, and if Oxbow were still around he might even be fourth, but the top spot is easily within reach, as a Travers win would make Verrazano this year's only three-time Grade 1 winner in his division (a distinction Princess of Sylmar has already achieved in her division). A Travers win would also answer the pesky 1 1/4 miles question and probably set him up as the favorite not only for the Breeders' Cup Classic but also Horse of the Year and one heck of an exciting stallion prospect.

     4. The others--A Travers win would get any of the other horses into the conversation as a top three-year-old, but other wins would be necessary to usurp the classic winners from the top spot.

     From a Horse of the Year perspective, a Breeders' Cup Classic win seems almost a must considering who is pointing for that race and Wise Dan has a big shot at 5 Grade 1 wins by the end of the year (albeit at 1-1 1/8 miles on the turf).

     In the video below, Triple Crown Insider takes a look at the Travers and all its implications, and Joel Cunningham and I agree on who will win the race.