TwinSpires.com Blog

I've spent the past week discussing this year's Kentucky Derby with anyone who will listen, and although I've stuck my neck out to make Hansen my to pick, the most common thing I've said in these discussions is, "I don't like the horse, but he could win."

It's a tough Derby because so many horses can win, but you can't use them all, and some you shouldn't use at all. Horses like Gemologist and Bodemeister fall in the former category for me. Yeah, they can win, and are even more likely winners than some of the horses I'll bet, but I'm willing to take my stand against them. After $100 horses Giacomo and Mine That Bird won two of five Derbys, I got out of the business of saying "so and so" can't win , but that doesn't mean I need to spend money on certain horses.

Other than instanity-insurance "ALL" plays with horses I really like (e.g., Turallure in the Woodford Reserve), I won't have any money on Daddy Long Legs, Optimizer, Trinniberg, Prospective, Done Talking, or Liaison, and if I had to pick the least likely winner of the race it would Trinniberg.

I think the Derby is generally more kind to horses who race near the front of the pack than closers, but it's tough to ignore that the two aforementioned bombs were both closers. It's just impossible to think Trinniberg can go all the way with Hansen and Bodemeister in the second tier tracking him.

Optimizer is my second least likely winner. He's slow and his running style is a handicap. If the winner is a horse running late, I don't see how it's him.

The least likely winner doesn't mean that horse is most likely to finish last, of course, though 19 horses passing Trinniberg as he backs gamely through the field probably is the most likely last-place scenario.

The TCI boys take a week off from making picks and bring in special guests me and Ray Paulick for a rectangle table discussion about some of the hot topics related to this year's Kentucky Derby.

The so-called hot topic I'm most interested in is the likely entry of Trinniberg, who will be a longshot to take the field gate to wire, but regardless of his perceived chances to win, he is an imposing presence for anyone handicapping the Derby from a pace perspective.

The big question: Does he go right to the lead, and if so, how long will he stay there? If he doesn't make the lead in the first quarter mile will he ever?

I do think he makes the lead early and likely gets on the rail because of it. The two questions then are: How does this effect the pace, and if you think he starts backing out of the race by the half-mile pole (i.e., six furlongs into the race) then how does that affect the run into the far turn?

To the question of pace, I think Trinniberg actually helps horses like Bodemeister, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, and Union Rags (assuming he stays closer than in the Florida Derby). A faster pace means deep closers have to work harder to stay in touch with the field.

If you think Trinniberg has no hope to last the 1 1/4 miles regardless of pace (even if it's 1:15) then if you're on a horse who can press that pace why not let him lope along and then take charge on the far turn? Trinniberg sets up a dynamic where maybe a horse like Hansen or Take Charge Indy or Bodemeister can be "alone" or relaxed on the second tier and run away from the field turning for home.

To the question of Trinniberg's action in the final half-mile of the race, if he is in fact on the rail entering the far turn then horses making a move at that point will either have to go way wide for clear run or hope a hole opens up at some point. The rail is the place to save ground for sure, but you also don't want to run into a backing up horse.

So obviously I don't love Trinniberg's chances to win, but please don't mistake that for thinking he doesn't belong. That's a topic for a future blog.

It was the blurst of times for the four horses who needed a Coolmore Lexington Stakes win to enter the Kentucky Derby picture as none even placed in the $200,000 Grade 3 event, and my pick "on top"--Morgan's Guerilla--finished last.

I learned (and earned!) more from the race as a handicapper than as a Derby observer, but there were some promising efforts: Summer Front finishing second off the layoff, Hammers Terror holding on for third when the other speed feed, and Gold Megillah closing late on the outside to get up for fourth. The race may have fallen off as a Derby prep, but there were some useful efforts on display nevertheless.

As Jon Siegel says in this week's Triple Crown Insider recap video, "We'll see what happens with all these horses--see if any of them move forward--because right now connections say they don't know what that next step is going to be."

TCI will be on location this week to discuss all things Derby with your scribe (Ed DeRosa) and The Paulick's Report Ray Paulick.