Showing posts with label All Squared Away. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All Squared Away. Show all posts

  • TCI is on to Louisville

    POSTED Apr 25, 2012 By Unknown
    It was the blurst of times for the four horses who needed a Coolmore Lexington Stakes win to enter the Kentucky Derby picture as none even placed in the $200,000 Grade 3 event, and my pick "on top"--Morgan's Guerilla--finished last.

    I learned (and earned!) more from the race as a handicapper than as a Derby observer, but there were some promising efforts: Summer Front finishing second off the layoff, Hammers Terror holding on for third when the other speed feed, and Gold Megillah closing late on the outside to get up for fourth. The race may have fallen off as a Derby prep, but there were some useful efforts on display nevertheless.

    As Jon Siegel says in this week's Triple Crown Insider recap video, "We'll see what happens with all these horses--see if any of them move forward--because right now connections say they don't know what that next step is going to be."


    TCI will be on location this week to discuss all things Derby with your scribe (Ed DeRosa) and The Paulick's Report Ray Paulick.

  • Anatomy of a 70-to-1 winner

    POSTED Apr 23, 2012 By Unknown
    Publicly picking (or at least tweeting) a 70-to-1 winner of a graded stakes race is a lot like performing a magic trick--some are impressed and others want to know how you did it.

    Unlike a magic trick, however, picking such a winner is difficult to repeat. 70-to-1 shots do not win that often (1.4% if the odds are actually correct), and even when it happens again, it's not like I'll necessarily be on it. If I'm 70-to-1 to pick a 70-to-1 horse who wins then the odds are actually 5,040-to-1 of it happening, but that's still a better chance than I have of making the Statue of Liberty disappear.

    And besides, the important thing is I had this one: All Squared Away to win the Lexington Stakes. And the lesson here for those asking how I landed on this one is not dissimilar from what I took away from Dullahan beating me in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes: The most important element of handicapping a horse race is asking not "Who will win?" but "Who can win?"

    It's a topic I've addressed a few times on Hello Race Fans:
    One of the biggest mistakes people make when handicapping races is asking the question, “Who will win” rather than “Who can win,” and it is the rationalist that [Andy] Beyer speaks of who will look at the numbers and be able to determine who is too slow to contend.
    Three things jumped out at me when reviewing All Squared Away's Ultimate Past Performances on Saturday morning:

    1. His previous two BRIS Speed Ratings were in the low 90s and that was good enough to contend with this group with any kind of improvement for...

    2. first-time trainer Wesley Ward (a 29% win/58% in the money angle according to the aforementioned PPs.

    3. Those two low 90s BRIS Speed Ratings were both earned closing into a slow pace, which I did not think would be in play in the Lexington.

    There were some negatives, too, of course: The outside post was a concern given posts 8 and beyond had won just 4% of the races going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland, and finishing sixth and seventh beaten a combined 19 1/2 lengths in two graded stakes tries didn't inspire, but again, how much inspiration do you need at 50-to-1? The three positives above told me the horse could win, and at that price I had to take a shot.

    In the end, 10% of the money I bet on the Lexington Stakes was on All Squared Away, so it's not as if he were my top pick in the race, but successful betting requires the handicapper not to get enamored with who will win.

    It's a great lesson to bring with you to the track--especially on Kentucky Derby day when so much importance is placed on WHO WILL WIN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. It's a satisfying question to get right, and I'd love to see I'll Have Another win for that reason but not at the expense of a horse I've bet at 40-to-1 because he can win.