TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast w/Derek Simon 09/05 by TwinSpires Radio | Blog Talk Radio
In the U. of Bet segment, Derek talks about his first week of "serious" betting by invoking Charles Dickens.
(click on image to enlarge)
PROS: The big maiden win in an off-the-turf affair on Oct. 2 was very impressive and stamped this William Mott trainee as a horse with promise. Note too that To Honor And Serve came off the pace in that race, which at the very least suggests that he is more than just a one-dimensional speedball.
CONS: In his only try around two turns, To Honor And Serve recorded very average pace figures, making me very dubious that he’s going to relish 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in May, barring substantial improvement. Sure, he received a +1 LSR in the Nashua, but that came after a +2 early speed ration. As it stands now, To Honor And Serve’s most impressive effort remains the maiden-breaker referenced above — and that race only hinted at his talent, it didn’t confirm it.
THE NEXT STEP: For me to have any faith in this guy, he’s going to have to do one of two things — either win on the lead with an ESR of -10 or less or come off the pace with an LSR of -8 or greater. In the meantime, I’d be looking to bet against him.
To Honor And Serve winning the Grade II Remsen
Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.
-15 = Demanding.
-10 = Brisk.
-5 = Moderate.
0 = Soft.
Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event.
0 = Excellent.
-5 = Good.
-10 = Fair.
-15 = Poor.
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TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.
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A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.
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