TwinSpires.com Blog

North American Thoroughbred Horse Racing Standings

After five seasons of meaningless fall baseball, the Cleveland Indians used a September surge to reach the playoffs, and the final week of the season was filled with "what if" scenarios involving wins and losses of not only the Indians but also the other teams in contention.

Talk of standings and magic numbers is part of the fun of the pennant race, and it's part of what makes Breeders' Cup prep season so much fun as well. I'm not a big fan of points systems in racing to determine championships (places in a starting gate Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands-style A-OK, natch), but standings I do believe in.

To that end, there is the weekly poll from America's Best Racing, which like Eclipse Award voting itself, does not provide much in the way of guidelines for voters other than basing rankings on who you expect could be Horse of the Year, but what qualifies as a Horse of the Year season/candidate is completely up to the voter.

There's some overlap among members of the National Turf Writers And Broadcasters and the ABR poll. NTWAB members do vote for Eclipse Awards but not all ABR poll members do. This is a good thing based on the votes of some who seem to lack any perspective for what makes certain races more difficult to win than others, but that's a topic for another time.

The matter at hand with one major Breeders' Cup prep weekend remaining and the Breeders' Cup World Championships now only weeks away is who can win a championship and who can't.

HORSE OF THE YEAR:
1. Game On Dude: The title is his if he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic regardless of what any other horse does. The Big Cap, Gold Cup, Pacific Classic, BC Classic four bagger would be impossible to deny even if Wise Dan wins out.

2. Wise Dan: He's on pace for a better year this year than last year but like last year, needs a Game On Dude loss in Classic and a Breeders' Cup win to get Horse of the Year honors.

3. Princess of Sylmar: She won't get my vote regardless, but the drum is beating for her to get Horse of the Year honors if both Game On Dude and Wise Dan lose Breeders' Cup, which seems unfair to me considering A) the onus is on more accomplished horses to do something she's not being asked to do, and B) she ran in races all year in which neither Game On Dude nor Wise Dan could compete. But, if the top two falter on November 2 then I could see her getting the prize. Assuming Wise Dan wins the Shadwell on Saturday at Keeneland, I'd vote for him under such a scenario with 4 Grade 1 and 2 Grade 2 wins. Obviously if Princess of Sylmar ends up in the Classic and wins then she's Horse of the Year regardless of what Wise Dan does.

I can't see any one besides one of these three horses winning Horse of the Year unless Royal Delta's connections call an audible and run in (and win) the Classic.

CHAMPION OLDER MALE:
1. Game On Dude is in the driver's seat here with 3 Grade 1 wins already. A good placing in the Breeders' Cup (without even winning) might be enough to secure the championship

2. Many tied with one Grade 1 each. I guess if Fort Larned, Ron The Greek, Alpha, Mucho Macho Man, or Cross Traffic wins the Classic then that might be enough to usurp Game On Dude since they'd be one of only two multiple Grade 1 winners in the division with a head to head score against Game On Dude.

3. Wise Dan: He won champion older male last year, which I thought was overkill. I voted for Fort Larned but prefered even Game On Dude to Wise Dan in this category last year. Turf and Horse of the Year is enough.

CHAMPION OLDER FEMALE:
1. Royal Delta: Having only two Grade 1 wins isn't ultra impressive, but the only females better than her are her juniors Princess of Sylmar and Beholder, so it's tough to look past her, and any older female who wins the Breeders' Cup still wouldn't have the resume Royal Delta has this year because she's already defeated horses like Authenticity.

CHAMPION THREE-YEAR-OLD MALE
1. Orb. I think I'm in the minority here, but even after all the racing since the Triple Crown season ended, he's still one of only two three-year-olds with multiple Grade 1 wins, and one of those two came in the most prestigious race in the world. He's on top for now, but his lead is tenuous.

2. Palace Malice: Has the most upside, and any respectable performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic puts him ahead of Orb, but as of right now I have to go with the multiple G1 wins that include the big one on top.

3. Will Take Charge: Similar situation as Palace Malice. A Classic win certainly gets it done for him as champion and maybe a solid second behind Game On Dude as well (Farda Amiga-style from 2002). I definitely view Belmont+Jim Dandy as better than Travers + PA Derby, and PM holds the head to head edge as well.

4. Verrazano: If he were to win a Breeders' Cup race then he'd have three Grade 1 wins, and he'd get my nod over either Palace Malice or Will Take Charge with only one each. But since PM or WTC control their own destiny, I have V behind them.

CHAMPION THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY
1. Princess of Sylmar: Her connections did a very sporting thing by taking on the champion older female for less money, and I'm willing to reward that with a championship following a season that also includes three other Grade 1 wins against her own generation. People are clamoring for a rematch with Beholder, but Princess of Sylmar's connections should feel no obligation to do so considering they were running in the summer when Beholder was on the shelf and coming back in a race that makes Uncle Mo's Timely Writer look like the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. The rematch can come next year.

2. Beholder: My mind is made up on Princess of Sylmar, but Beholder would probably get some love if she were to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff, which would tie the Grade 1 score at 4 apiece and give Beholder a 2-1 edge in G1s not restricted by age. BUT Princess of Sylmar has the head to head edge in a $1-million race and won at a 1 1/4 miles. The only tricky thing would be if Beholder wins a fifth Grade 1 in a race like the Cigar Mile or La Brea to close out the year.

CHAMPION MALE TURF
1. Wise Dan: This is one category that could be settled by Breeders' Cup no matter what, as Wise Dan could win his fourth Grade 1 among six graded stakes victories this weekend, and I can't see anything topping that among turf males regardless of what happens at Breeders' Cup. If he loses both starts to end his year, though, then that opens the door for a Breeders' Cup victor to sneak in the award.
t2. Point of Entry: Remember him? He beat eventual Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom to start the year then ducked rain, Wise Dan, or both on Derby day before returning with a Manhattan win. He's one of the very best when right, and a Turf victory would give him three Grade 1 wins--same as Wise Dan if that one were to lose out.
t2. Big Blue Kitten: Two Grade 1 wins and a narrow loss in a third has him right there as well with a Breeders' Cup win and Wise Dan losses.
4. Little Mike. A Breeders' Cup Turf win would give him two Grade 1 wins this year, which probably isn't enough against Wise Dan's three, but he'd probably get some support, and his owner might run him back again anyway! 

CHAMPION FEMALE TURF
1. Laughing: Slight edge to the East Coast talent here with two Grade 1 wins, but this is absolutely one race that will come down to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Still, if chaos reigns then Laughing would be the one to get it.
2. Tiz Flirtatious: Has just the one Grade 1 win, but two other graded stakes put her in a position for the Eclipse with a Breeders' Cup win
t2. Marketing Mix: Similar boat to Tiz Fliratious with just the one Grade 1 win, but she's beaten males and a Breeders' Cup gets it done for her.
t2. Dank: Won the Beverly D. in very impressive fashion and somewhat out of site/mind since. But she's targeting the BC and a win would get her the championship without a doubt.
5. The Fugue: I have her so far down because I think any of the above four winning a Breeders' Cup race would make them champion even if The Fugue were to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. However, if one of the above four falters and The Fugue wins the Turf then she'd get the championship.
t5. Moonlight Cloud: The same could be said for Moonlight Cloud if she were to win the Mile. I have her tied with The Fugue because I'm not sure which direction people would lean if both win and the top four all lose.

SPRINTERS & 2yo of either sex
All four of these divisions will come down to the Breeders' Cup.

For more insight into Breeders' Cup prep season, check out the Brisnet.com Bullet Train to the Breeders' Cup video below w/ me and Sean Feld

Woodward day at Saratoga Race Course

pace in your face with a can of mace

Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?"

"A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for six furlongs. A closer five lengths off that pace would have to come home in :23 for a chance, and that's no easy task.

As countless handicapping books have told me (and by countless, I mean I'm too lazy to count them, not that it's an infinite number), the idea that most closers (on dirt) run faster late than early is an illusion. I won't say most horses do their "best" running early, but it's certainly the fastest part of the race more often than not, which is why so-called speed biases have more to do with the animals contesting the race than the surface itself, but I digress because that's off the topic of Mucho Macho Man and Lea winning the Woodward and Forego Stakes (links to FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances), respectively, on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course--the summer place to be celebrating 150 years of aristocratic merriment in the foothill of the Adirondack Mountains.

Mucho Macho Man likes fighting for lead

Admittedly, Mucho Macho Man is a bit of a price play, as I don't see him as the most likely winner of the race, but I do see him as likely a winner of the other obvious horses (in alphabetical order) Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan (Alpha & Ron The Greek can beat me). So if your fair odds on Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan are 3-to-1 then Mucho Macho Man figures nicely at 4-to-1 (that leaves a 19-to-1 chance that either of "can beat me" horses actually beat me).

So what does Mucho Macho Man have to do to win? Well, he's done it six times in his career, and every time he's been either on the lead or in second place after the first quarter mile. Put another way, he's winless in nine starts when not first or second after a quarter mile and 6-for-15 when in that position.

Can he be there on Saturday in the Woodward? The Brisnet.com pace figures easily say yes. With Fort Larned out, Paynter and Mucho Macho Man are tied for the best early pace last race figure. Early pace measures from the start to the first call, and it's several points back to Flat Out and the rest.

Like most high-class animals racing in quality races, Mucho Macho Man goes faster for the first six furlongs than he does for the first half mile. His E2 pace rating (start to second call) was 109 last time, but that's not even close to what he's capable of. When he won the Suburban last year he popped a 100 through half a mile and then a 117 through six furlongs and kept on going.

I'm betting on the come here, because there is no guarantee he'll keep on going this time, but I do think there's a better than 20% chance that he does, and that makes him a good play.

Take a look at the race summary below and check out how Mucho Macho Man stacks up against the rest in average and best pace. Is he a standout? No, but considering the prices I think he's the obvious bet.



The Forego is a different situation, as I'm playing against the speed in this race, but I don't think Lea is as much of a stretch as everyone else.



Lea was everyone's sexy pick to upset Horse of the Year Wise Dan in both the Firecracker and Fourstardave Handicaps. He was 9-to-2 in both attempts and never really threatened the dual champion with a now-eight-race winning streak. He'll be at least double (and more likely triple) that price in the Forego with a lot of positive angles in play, including going turf to dirt on the cut back.

It's also worth noting that his best race came in a one-turn dirt affair. Granted, that was off the turf on a sloppy track, but there is no reason to think that Lea can't fulfill his promise with a Grade 1 win here.

WAGERING STRATEGY: I'll play Lea across the board. There's no reason to get cute in exotics when he'll be a square price and you'll get paid just for hitting the board. As for the Woodward, Mucho Macho Man is a win-place candidate.

As for multiple-race wagers, there's an all-graded-stakes Pick 3 that begins with the Bernard Baruch, and Silver Max is a single for me in there and a win bet at odds of 8-to-5 or better (I'll single him down to even money). I'll play him with ALL in the Forego and the aforementioned quartet in the Woodward for $32. I'll also give myself a chance to really by right by playing Silver Max-Lea and Lea-Mucho Macho Man doubles.

Good luck!

Time to shine, the TCI weekend preview

If San Pablo wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup then Joel Cunningham of PM Advertising will shine my shoes on next week's preview.

I'll stop short of calling San Pablo the most likely winner of the East Coast's most prestigious race for older males, but he's certainly likely enough given his expected price, and even though Todd Pletcher's name is usually enough to attract attention that may not be the case in the JCGC since San Pablo is not one of the race's six Grade 1 winners.

I'm as interested in the Jockey Club Gold Cup for who will win this race as for what it can mean to the Horse of the Year picture. As Rolly Hoyt said on Twitter, "only [a] couple [of] runners left with potentially historically significant seasons to merit [a] vote over undefeated dual classic winner" I'll Have Another.

I disagree in the sense that I'll Have Another is the default Horse of the Year option, but I agree in the sense that people banging the Horse of the Year drum without running in Horse of the Year races puzzle me.

For instance, even with a Breeders' Cup Classic win, I'd be hard-pressed to vote for Mucho Macho Man as Horse of the Year since that would mark his only Grade 1 win, but horses like Camelot, Dullahan, Fort Larned, Frankel, Game On Dude, Hymn Book, Ron The Greek, and Wise Dan are no brainers to me as Horse of the Year if they win out, and that last win comes in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Other potential Breeders' Cup Classic winners might have to do more if their connections want the gold statuette. Mucho Macho Man, for instance, could go in the Clark. If Wise Dan won the Mile then the Clark could give him the boost he needs.

I realize I'm mostly alone not only in my zest for the Eclipse Awards but assigning "standings" to each division this far out from the end of the season (and granted, my "standings" are as loosely defined as the voting guidelines themselves), but Eclipse Awards help quantify the prestige horses run for (they also run for money).

No Breeders' Cup Classic winner has earned Horse of the Year honors since Curlin in 2007, and this weekend's races will go a long way to define which Classic entrants can claim the gold statue with a win on November 3 at Santa Anita Park.

A more telling weekend

The Pacific Classic had a bigger say on this year's three-year-old male division than did the Travers Stakes.

Theoretically either Alpha or Golden Ticket could sneak into the Eclipse Award discussion by pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Classic following a win between now and then (Dullahan already has two Grade 1 wins plus he placed in a classic [the Kentucky Derby]), but the Travers bunch strikes me as not ready for primetime and evoke thoughts of playing out a loser's bracket rather than racing for a championship.

The Pennsylvania Derby will be a good, competitive, race in the same way the Travers was, but any hope the connections of a three-year-old has of dethroning I'll Have Another must include a Breeders' Cup Classic win.

Camelot is a sort of dark horse in the discussion, as a Breeders' Cup Classic win to go with his two classic wins (and possible Triple Crown) might be enough to sway American voters in a year without any real superstars. If Frankel would win Horse of the Year with a Classic win (and he would) then why not Camelot (the assumption being that if Camelot won HotY he'd also be champion three-year-old male)?

The benefit of not having a superstar dominate the racing landscape is that the best of what's around in each part of the country face each other with some regularity, and connections of East Coast- & Midwest-based horses will have to ship West to the Breeders' Cup World Championships if they hope to secure a championship.

I don't think the Woodward winner (even if it's Mucho Macho Man or To Honor And Serve) can lay claim to being the East Coast's best since Fort Larned, Hymn Book, Ron The Greek, and Wise Dan are sitting this one out, but certainly a win by either of the aforementioned horses would enhance their credentials while a win by any of the other starters would further illustrate the parity among this year's group.

The Forego is a sort of in-between race. If Shackleford wins, it's impossible to see him cutting back to six furlongs, as the Dirt Mile around two turns is certainly in his wheelhouse, but could that path lead to a championship? If Game On Dude (Classic) and Amazombie (Sprint) both win out then which division does Shackleford reign (burrito) supreme in? Game On Dude would get HotY and older male honors while Amazombie would get the sprint nod. The same goes for Jackson Bend as well. The Dirt Mile is nice given the money and Grade 1 status, but it's not where a championship is going to be decided.

Older male division