Leg 2 of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com concludes today, and while many have called it "the last chance" for three-year-olds to guarantee themselves a spot in the starting gate, that's really only because of where the races fall on the calendar since these 170-point chances today are the same as the previous five Leg 2 races on March 30 and April 6. I.e., if these races were two weeks ago they'd be just as valuable and prestigious. These races aren't the last chance, they're a big chance--for a Grade 1 win, big money, points toward the Derby, and to join a long list of some of racing's biggest stars.
It's a big chance for gamblers, too. I typically hate the term "wide-open" race, but it's impossible to ignore that the favorite in either race is extremely vulnerable. Even the top choices in both races are.
My main focus today is unquestionably the blockbuster 12-race Blue Grass card. What a blessing to watch Horse of the Year Wise Dan win his six-year-old debut, turn the page and see this card with three Grade 1 races, an all-stakes Pick 4, two Pick 5s, and of course one of the top preps for the world's most prestigious horse race.
Unlike Friday, though, there are precious few "gimmes" on this card. Whereas Wise Dan was nearly a free square in his race, no such block exists on today's card. The ABC grid is below.
If it's possible for American Thoroughbred racing to pack this much action into a weekend then I might as well do my part and pack as much as I can into this blog. If you're wondering why I'm blogging at 1 a.m. EDT after a full day at Keeneland it's because I'm still coming down from the high of live racing returning to Lexington and a solid day of wagering that ended with a "lone 'A'" horse streaking home at 9-to-1 and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool turning a profit on the Rainbow^6. Others probably had a better ROI for the bet, but I doubt anyone generated ~$65,000 in gross profit on a bet that "only" paid $4,234.01 for a dime. This game can knock you down in a hurry, though, so rather than rest on my laurels (or rest at all), I've been busy preparing for Ashland Stakes day at Keeneland (ABC grid appears at the bottom of this post)--a great card of ten races that will conclude just in time to catch the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park as part of the Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of the DCS races, click here. Not that racing does this anymore, but if there were a double linking the two prep races this weekend and the two next weekend (the Wood-SA Derby & the Blue Grass-Arkansas Derby, respectively), then I think most people would assume that this week's double would pay less. Even if you don't love Verrazano and/or Flashback, the alternatives in both races this week are logical whereas the Blue Grass is likely to attract a full gate of evenly matched horses with the added Polytrack equalizer. But are this weekend's preps that much of a gimme? Of the two favorites I prefer Verrazano, but if things go according to my plan I won't even mind if "the favorite obliges" as John G. Dooley is fond of saying. In the Wood, Go Get the Basil and Freedom Child will be big prices and either seems capable of at least getting a sliver slice of something. I'd rather try to beat the likes of Vyjack underneath than try to beat Verrazano on top. I plan a similar approach in Santa Anita Derby where any of the Bafferts make sense, and I'm sick of hearing about Tiz A Minister who seemed to have every chance in the San Felipse and couldn't get the job done. Summer Exclusive and Storm Fighter both ran nice races to break their maiden last out, but this is a HUGE step in class for both of them. The price needs to be right here, but it should be. In the give credit where it's due department, kudos to Joel Cunningham who has had Revolutionary on top of his Derby watch list for quite some time, and he looked good gutting out a win in the Louisiana Derby. Let's see what Joel thinks of this weekend's races.
Speaking of what people have to say, Jill Byrne has her usual great insight into each prep this weekend.
As for my thoughts on this weekend's races, my biggest play will be on Air Support in race 4 at Keeneland, a graded stakes-caliber field where the two morning line choices--Turralure and Al Khali--are plays against for me in all multi-race wagers. The ABC grid below is subject to change with scratches forthcoming, but the other horse I'm really hoping the morning line holds up on is #7 Gathering in race 8. Good luck!
Sunland Park generated handle of $3,818,878 for its Sunland Derby day card on Sunday, March 24. The Eastern New Mexico track called it an all-sources record--a fitting coda on the first leg of the inaugural Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com that saw all-sources handle on the eight race dates involving the so-called "50-point" races jump 5.79% versus last year.
And in a sign that a rising tide lifts all boats, all-sources handle on the eight days in particular increased 3.64% for all North American Thoroughbred tracks those days. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that handle for the entire leg 1 period of the Derby Championship Series was flat. I.e., handle from February 23-March 24 decreased except for the bump on DCS cards. As for the year, handle January 1-March 24 is down .7%.
Determining how much the new points system has to do with increased wagering interest will require more than eight races of overall wagering data within one Derby prep season, but this is definitely a good first sign that the system is achieving its mission of getting people more excited about these races, and ultimately, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.
Leg two of the Derby Championship Series begins this weekend with the U.A.E., Florida, and Louisiana Derbys, continues with the Wood Memorial Stakes and Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and concludes with the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby on April 13. In particular, the two domestic races each weekend will provide an additional measuring stick regarding interest in the series, but the early returns are certainly positive.
Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.
TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.
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American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and
latest news from the sulky.
The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.
A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.
