Showing posts with label handle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label handle. Show all posts

  • Did new points system increase handle?

    POSTED Mar 25, 2013 By Unknown
    Sunland Park generated handle of $3,818,878 for its Sunland Derby day card on Sunday, March 24. The Eastern New Mexico track called it an all-sources record--a fitting coda on the first leg of the inaugural Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com that saw all-sources handle on the eight race dates involving the so-called "50-point" races jump 5.79% versus last year.

    And in a sign that a rising tide lifts all boats, all-sources handle on the eight days in particular increased 3.64% for all North American Thoroughbred tracks those days. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that handle for the entire leg 1 period of the Derby Championship Series was flat. I.e., handle from February 23-March 24 decreased except for the bump on DCS cards. As for the year, handle January 1-March 24 is down .7%.

    Determining how much the new points system has to do with increased wagering interest will require more than eight races of overall wagering data within one Derby prep season, but this is definitely a good first sign that the system is achieving its mission of getting people more excited about these races, and ultimately, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

    Leg two of the Derby Championship Series begins this weekend with the U.A.E., Florida, and Louisiana Derbys, continues with the Wood Memorial Stakes and Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and concludes with the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby on April 13. In particular, the two domestic races each weekend will provide an additional measuring stick regarding interest in the series, but the early returns are certainly positive.

  • Double trouble and other BC-inspired multi-race wagering observations

    POSTED Nov 6, 2012 By Unknown
    I already asked after last year's Breeders' Cup, "Is the daily double a bad bet?"
    Philosophically the answer is the same, "it depends," but when five of 13 double combinations come back less than the corresponding win parlay it's fair to ask whether targeting the rolling doubles is a good use of a player's bankroll.

     Friday was particularly frustrating for doubles players, as four of the five combos returned less than the parlay. Then on Saturday the marquee duo of Wise Dan and Fort Larned produced a $58.24 win parlay but only a $55.80 double.

     The Pick 3s on Friday did not fare much better with the first three Breeders' Cup-only sequences involving the first five Breeders' Cup races each paying less than the parlay. Beholder capped a $1,469.20 payout that was a staggering 33.5% less than the parlay involving Calidoscopio at 17.2-to-1 and Flotilla at 11.4-to-1.

     These results speak to my thought that --especially on big days--the cardinal ranking of a horse's odds is just as important as his win odds when assessing multi-race value. Calidoscopio at 17-to-1 and Flotilla at 11-to-1 look great on paper, but the former's win came in a race where many people were inclined to go deep, and the latter was one many would use with the favorite. Both led to a short field of Juvenile Fillies that was won by one of the few horses in the race who could win (even if she wasn't the favorite).

     The best value throughout Breeders' Cup appeared to come in races involving the Turf where Little Mike was probably longer than his 17.3-to-1 win odds in multi-race exotics. He capped a Pick 3 that paid nearly twice the parlay and kicked off a Pick 4 that paid 44.1% more than the parlay even though the late Pick 3 and aforementioned late double both paid less than the parlay.
    The Pick 4 remains best among Breeders' Cup wagering opportunities. Going back to 2006, it has never paid less than the corresponding parlay, and even Friday's sequence involving the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Turf, and Ladies' Classic overcame short prices elsewhere to post a 5.8% premium over the parlay.

     Total handle on the two-day extravaganza dropped 9.5%, and while Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath were a big part of that, the wagering menu couldn't have helped with two Pick 4s on Friday covering five races, and of the only two Pick 4s on Saturday's 12-race card, just the late sequence used only Breeders' Cup races.

     A) The early portion of Friday's ten-race card absolutely needed a Pick 4. Yes, there was the Pick 5 on races 1-5, but that only included two Breeders' Cup races. A "normal" SoCal card has the Player's Pick 5 then an early Pick 4 on races 2-5. I don't know why that couldn't have worked this weekend.

     B) Saturday's program easily could have supported three, if not four, Pick 4 sequences. Having only two-all-BC Pick 4s on a card with nine Breeders' Cup races had to have hurt handle. The Juvenile was not part of a Pick 4, and that is definitely among the more popular races. Starting one with the Dirt Mile would have gotten a lot of action, and based on the win parlay of the four races involved would have paid at least $2,500 for $.50.

     Wagering on horse racing is pari-mutuel in nature, and understanding these types of payouts is crucial to long-term success. It's just a shame we have to wait six months to put them in practice!

  • Breeders' Cup Saturday--a narrower approach

    POSTED Nov 3, 2012 By Unknown
    Several of Steve Byk's guests this week said that Friday's card looked to be the more "formful" of the two Breeders' Cup days, and while there were two big surprises along the way--those surprises occurred in the races people probably most expected it: the Juvenile Sprint and Marathon.

     Sure, Royal Delta was the only favorite to win one of the six championships races, but Flotilla, Beholder, and Zagora hardly shocked the world. If the aforementioned guests are right, then we're in for some big prices today.

     I came into the weekend thinking Saturday was less tricky, however. That doesn't mean there won't be prices--of course there will be--but I do think horses like Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Wise Dan in the Mile, and Game On Dude in the Classic are going to run their races. Sometimes that's not good enough to win against World-Class competition, but they are not favorites I'm going against.

     I came into the week really wanting to dislike Game On Dude, but applying my handicapping principles shows he has an edge here. 9-to-5 is tough to get excited about, but I do like Brilliant Speed to run well, and hooking those two up in the exotics would spice things up nicely.

     I think the best chance for a price is in the Sprint where legitimate Grade 1-level horses will be going off at 10- or 20-to-1. Unfortunately, everyone else knows that, too, so a 20-to-1 doesn't necessarily play that high in multi-race wagers.

    All that said, legitimate surprises are required to really blow up a Pick 4, etc. I already mentioned Brilliant Speed as a horse I'll use. Treasure Beach is an overlay and could get lost in the Point of Entry-St. Nicholas Abbey din, so he's a high-priced "A" for me. I couldn't let Great Mills go at 20-to-1 in the Turf Sprint. He's just consistently fast enough to run with these. In the Juvenile Turf, Gervinho is undefeated, gets Bejarano, and closed like a freight train last out.

    Here is my ABC grid for today.

  • Only at Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Oct 25, 2012 By Unknown
    Any other day in America, if Wise Dan and Point of Entry were a part of a rolling double wager the will pay before the first leg would probably flash $6 on a $2 ticket (i.e., 2-to-1).

     Indeed, a win parlay connecting Point of Entry's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational triumph ($3.50) with Wise Dan's Shadwell Turf Mile victory ($3.20) returned $5.60.

     So what are the chances that Point of Entry and Wise Dan win the Breeders' Cup Turf and Mile, respectively? According to William Hill it's 14-to-1. Translation: The $2 double with Wise Dan and Point of Entry is paying $30.

     Now, granted, there are a couple variables at play here: 1) William Hill is based in Europe and is likely under valuing American turf form (at least relative to the European shippers), and 2) these are the toughest fields either has faced in their careers.

     Still, the beauty and frustration of Breeders' Cup is that great horses can actually offer value and good horses get completely overlooked.

     As multiple Grade 1 winners in stylish fashion, Wise Dan and Point of Entry are both Horse of the Year candidates and are widely considered to be among the best American horses in training. Yet both will be 2-to-1 at a minimum.

    Imagine any other day of racing in the United States where either of these horses wouldn't be odds on, let alone 2-to-1! Maybe the Kentucky Derby itself where Big Brown, who in retrospect probably should have been 4-to-5, was 9-to-5 from post 20 in 2008.

     The frustrating side of this benefit is that Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races, and good horses can come up and bite you: Court Vision comes immediately to mind. Of course that also means you get big prices on Grade 1 winners. Brilliant Speed and Pool Play, for instance, will both be at least $50 horses.

     One last thing about Wise Dan and Point of Entry. A six-race parlay on their last six wins (the former has won three straight and the latter five straight, but we'll just take their last three wins each) would return $205, but even if both won on Championships Saturday, they could key a Pick 6 that pays six figures.

  • Is handicapping Breeders' Cup more like Christmas or Hanukkah?

    POSTED Oct 23, 2012 By Unknown
    By this time tomorrow (i.e., Wednesday afternoon), we'll know which owners pre-entered their horses in what races, and preparation can begin in earnest for the Breeders' Cup World Championships November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, and the $120-million up for grabs to bettors (assuming $150-million in handle with a blended take out of 20%).

     For many fans, preparation began long ago, of course with the watching, talking about, and re-watching of countless "prep" races during the summer and fall leading up to the 15 World Championships races, but regardless, there is something definitive about the release of pre-entries. It's a line in the sand, or as one colleague put it earlier this year regarding Arlington International Festival of Racing pre-entries, "From here on out, there are only subtractions."

     One of the key pieces of information revealed along with the pre entries is the order of races. As a bettor who highly favors multi-race wagers, race order is important to me and definitely impacts my two-day strategy.
    Some have called the night before pre-entries Christmas Eve, but I see it more like Hanukkah because each of the next eight days will bring new handicapping insights: PPs, analysis of international runners, final workouts, full-card PPs, Spotlight Selections, workout reports, etc.

     As with any big event--and particularly the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup--information overload is a legitimate concern. I'm mostly (along with Jim Steinman) in the "too much is never enough" camp, but I also subscribe to the "think long, think wrong" theory, meaning balancing all the information with what to use and how to use it is delicate.

    My experience watching the prep races as well as reading the past performances (and associated data that comes out with it like pace and speed figures) is enough to answer an important question: Who can't win?

     From there, it's a matter classifying a horse's chances and what role I expect that horse to play in my wagering based on his/her chances of winning & odds relative to that chance. 

    On one hand, I try to avoid going into handicapping these races with preconceived notions of the best horses or who might offer value, but on the other hand, I watch a lot of races, and it'd be foolish not to rely on that experience.

  • Stars? We don't need no stinkin' stars

    POSTED Sep 5, 2012 By Unknown
    Well, OK, maybe we need some stars, but their creation should be organic not forced just because of a Grade 1 win or notoriety on the Triple Crown trail.

     Granted, the collective departures of Grade 1 winners Bodemeister, Hansen, I'll Have Another, Paynter, and Union Rags in the past three months is not ideal but nor is it likely to have any meaningful impact on the sport.
    Exhibit "A" is this year's Travers Stakes, a Grade 1 race in which the only Grade 1-winning entrant (Liaison) was on a seven-race losing streak. As I said in a previous blog post, this field was more like a bunch of also rans playing out the loser's bracket of a tournament already won by the aforementioned retired horses than it was an exercise in determining the best three-year-old.

     Indeed, my over/under line on number of Grade 1 wins by the 11 starters going forward is 2.5 for their careers and .5 for this year because the only Grade 1 races remaining for three-year-old males are the Malibu (7 furlongs, dirt), Jamaica (1 1/8 miles, turf), and Hollywood Derby (1 1/4 miles, turf). I.e., I don't give this group much of a chance to beat older in Grade 1 events.

     But who cares? Well, racing fans at large certainly don't. Attendance for the motley crew concert was 46,528, up 8.1% from the previous year, and all-sources handle also increased, up 10.8% to $36,597,173.

     If I'll Have Another had won the Triple Crown and raced in this year's Travers would that have increased those figures? Of course, but a star of that magnitude is in a different galaxy than the balls of gas that claim Union Rags would have done anything meaningful for racing.

     Let's use Royal Delta as an example. Last year's champion three-year-old filly and Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner sold for $8.5-million at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale and easily could have been retired, but she returned this year and while her presence in races certainly gives some of them a "headline name", her star power is not so massive that it has its own gravity, as I would have a hard time arguing that her presence has mattered to Dubai, Churchill, Delaware Park, or Saratoga.



     Yet had she been retired following that sale, I have no doubt that the din of cries claiming that "racing needs stars" and "the breeding business is the tail wagging the dog" would have been deafening.

     Racing does need stars. It needs the Smarty Jones and Zenyatta and Frankel types to show it can be done and to fuel our imagination when the NBT (next big thing) comes around. But we don't need to pretend that Bodemeister was a star of that magnitude. Yes, I was bullish on his talent. I thought he was good enough to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and be Horse of the Year this year, but someone else will accomplish those things, and regardless of what races Bodemeister may have won between the Preakness and Breeders' Cup it's doubtful that he would have done enough to influence the Breeders' Cup's business.

     Which brings us back to Frankel, who certainly would affect Breeders' Cup business, as the crush of media would turn the World Championships into a true international phenomenon, and maybe even Bethenny Frankel would get involved on the hype.

    He is the type of horse that moves the dial. The others are just interchangeable Grade 1 winners. Fun to watch and certainly capable of providing a thrill a la this year's Travers Stakes but not needed to help the sport grow.